RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
duckroll said:
true.... ok revising it too: 1.05M first day and 1.55M first week.
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Media Create Sales: Nov 30-Dec 6, 2009
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
true.... ok revising it too: 1.05M first day and 1.55M first week.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
You set the trap:schuelma said:
schuelma said:
I dunno. Unlike the Monster Hunter developers, I think Square Enix is much more dedicated. If it sells 1.1 million in the first week, and only does 100k the subsequent week, and 50k the week after that..... then Wada will order everyone who worked on FFXIII to buy 100 copies each. That should easily push the game over 1.5 million.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
duckroll said:
And now they have Eidos employees as well, 10m worldwide sales confirmed, finally the real reason for buying Eidos is clear.
jett said:1.5 million would be like a 40% adoption rate with the way things are now. If Squeenix is expecting something over 2 million they would have to be insane.
I think, somewhere deep inside, S-E is indeed hoping to be able to hit 2 million. It's not completely impossible, just very very unlikely. I think the biggest hurdle facing FFXIII's legs in the long term is something most people don't seem to have mentioned - the price. The game is over 9000yen. It's almost a hundred dollars. With a price like that, not only will tons of people want to sell the game asap after finishing it even if they like it, but many more people will be holding out just to buy the game for less. The game will need really strong word of mouth to be VERY compelling for people to buy it in the first month and a half of release. If a ton of people feel that it's worth getting the game brand new without waiting for it to hit substantially lower prices at used stores, then it has a chance of selling more.
xs_mini_neo
Banned
Lion Heart said:
Fixed.
1.5 million is a VERY respectable number, considering the PS3 user base in Japan right now.
It won't reach what FF12 did, only because there simply aren't THAT many systems out there.
Also, there's roughly 4 million PS3's out there, so 1.5 million sold would make it about 40% attach rate! Insane!
It won't reach what FF12 did, only because there simply aren't THAT many systems out there.
Also, there's roughly 4 million PS3's out there, so 1.5 million sold would make it about 40% attach rate! Insane!
Culex said:
"Good in spite of" may just be another way of saying "bad because of".
I don't know enough about the Final Fantasy series and its sales in recent years to give an estimate of what it would be reasonable for FF XIII to sell on a hypothetical PS3 that had sold an infinite number of units, but I imagine that Square Enix would prefer FF XIII to sell above 1.5 million copies.
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
How long until the stories of people selling back copies of FFXIII (games and/or bundles) after finishing the game? I think we've always seen it happen to some degree after major releases for either HD console over there, or will this be the one to buck the trend?
XiaNaphryz said:
It's not something new or limited to HD consoles. It's been a problem since the PS2 era. There's no reason why someone who buys a 60-90 dollar game won't want to make a part of that back after being done with the game. What we have to look at is how healthy the supply and demand is for the new unused copies.
If say 2 weeks after the game is released, it starts hitting used stores, but demand for the game is still relatively there with people buying copies off the shelf. In this scenario, the used game stores are not going to sell the used copies they have bought back for like, half price or anything, they'll just have them at lower than the lowest the new copies are going for in that area.
If on the other hand, demand for new copies have totally started to dry up, and there are TONS of unsold copies on the shelves, then the used stores will begin to buy it back at a much lower rate and start selling for significantly lower prices to attract people who aren't biting on the new copies. This will then result in the regular retailers having to lower the price of new copies to fight the used copies AND to clear their stock.
thestopsign
Member
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - .85m
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.15m
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 240k
PS3 Hardware - 160k
WII Hardware - 145k
I think Final Fantasy XIII will be ~1.7mil LTD. That's what I've been saying for the last year, and I'm sticking with it.
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.15m
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 240k
PS3 Hardware - 160k
WII Hardware - 145k
I think Final Fantasy XIII will be ~1.7mil LTD. That's what I've been saying for the last year, and I'm sticking with it.
where ever platform they will go this Gen, FF XIII will never sell 2 Million in japan. maybe on the DS, but even on that platform i doubt it since it will defeat the purpose of a FF game with beautiful and eye dazzling graphics and effects.
really, SE like many other 3rd parties must miss the PS2 era.
really, SE like many other 3rd parties must miss the PS2 era.
Not to mention that without any online component and no DLC planned in the horizon, there's absolutely no reason to keep the game whatsoever at all.
I don't know if it works, but many big games in Japan are pushing DLC, and, I assume, one of the reasons is to make the game appealing in the long run.
^ Your names are so similar I thought one of you was talking to himself. /random
I don't know if it works, but many big games in Japan are pushing DLC, and, I assume, one of the reasons is to make the game appealing in the long run.
^ Your names are so similar I thought one of you was talking to himself. /random
thestopsign
Member
Road said:
Well, Dragon Quest IX is obviously. I heard something about DLC for Samurai Warriors 3 also. Not really sure on most other games, but I have to imagine that Gran Turismo 5 will.
gerg said:
No, didn't you hear? Versus and Agito aren't spinoffs. They're all FF13, even though they're named differently they're all the same game. Think of it as how, like, in Christianity, God and Jesus and the Holy Spirit are all God even though they're different. FF13 doesn't have any spinoffs, it just has Jesus (Versus, the game that will bring unto the PS3 its salvation) and the Holy Spirit (Agito).
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 0.70m
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 0.80m
[Wii] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week 300K
That week
PS3 Hardware - 150k
Wii Hardware - 130k
my very first prediction ever in this forums. Be gentle.
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 0.80m
[Wii] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week 300K
That week
PS3 Hardware - 150k
Wii Hardware - 130k
my very first prediction ever in this forums. Be gentle.
darkhunger
Member
When Final Fantasy VII was released in Japan in January 1997, the PSOne had sold about 4.5 million consoles there.
FFVII sold 2 million copies in the first three days it was available.
Repeat performance for FFXIII? Doubtful. But some of you guys underestimate things.
FFVII sold 2 million copies in the first three days it was available.
Repeat performance for FFXIII? Doubtful. But some of you guys underestimate things.
thestopsign
Member
darkhunger said:
FFVII was the new hotness at the time. It had the amazing new CG going for it and presented more of a "wow" factor than any game ever created. XIII doesn't have that going for it, it is on a smaller userbase, and the series is in decline, not an upswing. Then you have the shipment numbers to supplement this, meaning that there is no way that the game gets close to 2mil, when only 1.3mil is shipping in its first week.
charlequin
Banned
Thanks for updating the system, Kurosaki! Now I'm honor-bound to predict.
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 900K
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.15M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 350K
PS3 Hardware - 175K
WII Hardware - 155K
Uuurgh, predicting Wii and NSMBW with the intervening week info is rough.
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 900K
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.15M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 350K
PS3 Hardware - 175K
WII Hardware - 155K
Uuurgh, predicting Wii and NSMBW with the intervening week info is rough.
charlequin
Banned
Fafalada said:
No. Honestly, from what sketchy info we have, FF seems like (currently) one of the least expensive generational transitions -- the games already spent $40 million budgets on so much art, CGI, and development that it doesn't really seem likely that FFXIII costs drastically more.
The thing to do, I think, is check the credits when the game's out. I'm guessing we'll see a very similar staff size, and we already know we're looking at a similar development time to FFXII.
Bebpo said:
That's taking it too far, though.
There are two kinds of HD games that, I imagine, fit this category. One is games that already cost so much and had such high staffing and development requirements that simply upgrading to HD assets is a drop in the bucket. (I'm not sure what, if anything, qualifies besides, like, Halo and FF, but I might be missing something.) The other is the category is stuff that avoids the big price hike by either using visually unimpressive assets, visual tricks, or both to go HD without increasing the asset budget. (Vesperia, Valkyria, and Disgaea 3 are all good examples off the top of my head.)
But most of the stuff in the middle really is seeing a big cost increase, which is easy to see just by comparing staffing numbers and development cycle lengths. The biggest offenders are going to be games with realistic art styles (necessitating a drastic increase in quantity, not just quality, of art assets), open worlds, and/or "cinematic" qualities. MGS4 cost way more to make than MGS3. GTA4 cost way more to make than GTA:SA. And so on.
I do think you're broadly correct about Japanese games, though, just since so many Japanese games this gen (MGS4 and FF13 being notable exceptions) haven't applied the same level of graphical upgrade that Western games have.
duckroll said:Or both. There is also that possibility, and it has nothing to do with morality.
Logically, I don't think that's a possibility (assuming ethelred was being sarcastic).
This is like when you have two brothers at a fork in the road, and one of them is lying, isn't it? ; )
darkhunger
Member
Should have read the thread a bit more... :lolStopsign said:
But the point is... Its possible to sell tons on a low userbase, unlike some people were saying in this thread. Maybe not for this game.
Yeah, sadly I'm redoing my FF #s
Day 1 = 957k
Week 1 = 1.25M
PS3 hard = 140k
SMB = 335k
Wii = 98k
I think FF13 has the potential to sell 1.5 first weekend and 2 million LTD. But the low # 2nd/3rd/4th+ shipment numbers are going to kill the games potential because, yeah, by the time those shipments are out there there will be used copies on the market.
And for the Wii hardware, I see a downward trend year after year. Mario gives a boost, but we shall see how long that lasts. Afterwards I see it doing less than last year on a week vs. week basis. So if it was 130~ last year, I think it could be below 100 this year.
Day 1 = 957k
Week 1 = 1.25M
PS3 hard = 140k
SMB = 335k
Wii = 98k
I think FF13 has the potential to sell 1.5 first weekend and 2 million LTD. But the low # 2nd/3rd/4th+ shipment numbers are going to kill the games potential because, yeah, by the time those shipments are out there there will be used copies on the market.
And for the Wii hardware, I see a downward trend year after year. Mario gives a boost, but we shall see how long that lasts. Afterwards I see it doing less than last year on a week vs. week basis. So if it was 130~ last year, I think it could be below 100 this year.
In light of the FFXIII shipment info, I decided to drop my FFXIII prediction numbers a little. From 1.35M to 1.275M. I'm hoping that the shipment estimates are on the conservative side (Or FFXIII sell-through is amazing). Doesn't feel right to go much lower.
To compensate, I also bumped up my NSMB Wii third week estimate by 30k and my Wii hardware estimate by 10k.
That will be the only time I adjust the numbers. If I end up too high on FFXIII and too low on NSMB/Wii so be it :lol
To compensate, I also bumped up my NSMB Wii third week estimate by 30k and my Wii hardware estimate by 10k.
That will be the only time I adjust the numbers. If I end up too high on FFXIII and too low on NSMB/Wii so be it :lol