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Did the dissolution of the USSR, screw Russia in the long run?

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T

TacticalFox88

Banned
From all the evidence I've seen, all signs point to yes. Now let me break it down for you guys who aren't that familiar with the Cold War and its various history.
soviet_union_map.jpg

This is a map of the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics as it existed prior to December, 1991. Contrary to popular belief, the Soviet Union technically wasn't a single "country". It was literally just a Union that was controlled in Moscow. Anyhow, the total landmass was nearing 22,000,000 kilometers sqaured. It was by far the largest country in the world and then some.

Russia.jpg

This is a map of the Russian Federation. After the USSR "collapsed" (Read: It was actually disbanded), Russia lost about 5 million kilometers sqaure foot of land.

The 15 other independent states economies grew (somewhat, this is kind of arguable), Russia was in state of chaos trying to "adjust" to the new Market policies. Corruption was rampant, the economy was absolute shit, and hell there we even lawyers on the street looking for work. Not only that, the population (which they've ALWAYS had an edge over the US) dropped significantly; almost half of what it would used to be.

For comparison's sake:
Population of the USSR in 1991:293,047,571
Population of the Russian Federation:141,927,297
Population currently if Soviet Union was still together today? 270.2 Million

With that being said, Russia's population is STILL decreasing. Even today, the country is still having trouble turning around its misfortunes from the 90s. The death rate is still higher than than the birth rate, despite repeated efforts to get it to even out.

However nothing is more in a sadder state now, then the Russian Armed Forces. Currently, all males 18 and up MUST enter a full year in the service. The practice is very much hated amongst the Russian populace, but the Government really has no choice. Even though with treaties such as START, Russia still has the largest nuclear force on the planet. However, with few exceptions, their Armed Forces are simply in terrible shape.

Most Russian tanks are 40 years older and up, and very, very, VERY few meet modern (I.E USA) standards. Despite efforts to replace them, the Russian MiG-29 is still the standard aircraft of the Russian Air Force. The aircraft can barely match the American made F-15 Eagle, let alone newer models such as the F-22 Raptor or the Eurofighter. Even with the new PAK-FA plane they're still to few of them to turn the tide in the "game" (only three exist). It's unlikely, even if the Russian Government wanted, they could purchase a fleet of them to rearm the entire Air Force. And none of their former 15 friends are doing *that* much better either. Oil revenues are expected to decline. So unless something MAJOR happens in the middle east, the Russian Federations source of money for the military will become tighter and tighter.

So then why? Why did they break up? They could've followed the model of China in the 80's and came out in MUCH better shape. By that time, a period of detente was underway anyway, and the two superpowers would be far less likely to be enemies and start co-operating with each other.
 
V

viciouskillersquirrel

Member
Yeah. Russia will continue its decline as a power until it reaches some sort of stasis (or breaks up further).

I'd be more interested in seeing what a divided China would look like or if such a thing would even be possible.
 
J

jajas2

Member
No. The Soviet system was completely unsustainable in the long run, and i'm actually surprised that the process went as smoothly as it did. One simply cannot keep together a large, multi-ethnic empire together by force, not in the information age. There are ways of slowing down it's disintegration, but in the end it falls apart, and usually with violence. Just be glad it didn't turn into the Balkans x 100.
 
GhaleonQ

GhaleonQ

Member
I don't really understand any of your points. How would gradual spinoffs or a higher starting population affect their wellbeing?

1. They instituted capitalism without markets.
2. Communism and history gutted their centuries-old institutions.
3. Their political culture needed saints or decades to purge the misanthropes.
4. Communism and poverty destroyed their work ethic and culture.
5. People who lived in the U.S.S.R. are dying more quickly than people are being replaced and 1-4 causes reckless behavior and deaths in the male population.

No one could have prevented any of those things in 1990. Ukraine and Georgia (the most successful, right?) have been trying with spurts of success to get around these facts, but they didn't stand a chance.

It's unfortunate (if I had to pick 1 society in which to live, divorced of political or economic concerns, it'd be western Russia), but they did it to themselves.
 
B

bonesmccoy

Banned
Did the dissolution of the USSR, screw Russia in the long run?

No.

Did the adoption of Leninism and Stalinism screw Russia in the long run?

Yes.

Did a lack of political reform in the late 19th Century and centuries of Serfism screw Russia in the long run?

Yes.

Did James Bond screw the USSR?

Yes, and passionately, but only once. USSR was actually a double-agent, who was killed while attempting to assassinate the British House of Lords. It was Bond who fired the fatal shot, and he was the one who ran to her and cradled her limp and lifeless, but still nubile, body in his arms and wondered what the point of it all was.
 
way more

way more

Member
You seem to have confused the event with a main cause. Did the kid breaking his leg cause him to suck at it?
 
K

Kabouter

Member
GhaleonQ said:
No one could have prevented any of those things in 1990. Ukraine and Georgia (the most successful, right?) have been trying with spurts of success to get around these facts, but they didn't stand a chance.
Click to expand...
I believe the Baltic states have been the most successful ex-Soviet states.
 
T

ToxicAdam

Member
USSR was in no position to try what China did with it's smaller experiments in capitalism. Some people forget that China didn't just flip a switch and become a superpower overnight. It took decades and decades of failed starts.
 
L

leroidys

Member
GhaleonQ said:
I don't really understand any of your points. How would gradual spinoffs or a higher starting population affect their wellbeing?

1. They instituted capitalism without markets.
2. Communism and history gutted their centuries-old institutions.
3. Their political culture needed saints or decades to purge the misanthropes.
4. Communism and poverty destroyed their work ethic and culture.
5. People who lived in the U.S.S.R. are dying more quickly than people are being replaced and 1-4 causes reckless behavior and deaths in the male population.

No one could have prevented any of those things in 1990. Ukraine and Georgia (the most successful, right?) have been trying with spurts of success to get around these facts, but they didn't stand a chance.

It's unfortunate (if I had to pick 1 society in which to live, divorced of political or economic concerns, it'd be western Russia), but they did it to themselves.
Click to expand...

WAT. Have you ever been to western Russia?

HappyBivouac said:
Comma splices, screwed this thread in the long run.
Click to expand...

Be kind, there are commas ER'WHERE in Russian.
 
J

jeffy_johnson

Member
I am starting to see more and more that democracy, when implemented in an environment in which it did not develop on its own is a bad idea. While this can be seen in the examples of Afghanistan and Iraq, I believe it is also true here in Russia. Throughout its entire history, Russia has had authoritarian rule. Even with the Bolshevik take over in 1918, the government soon turned into a dictatorship. After the collapse of the USSR, and democracy being set up here, it really isn't any better. Some Russians I have talked to see the Communist state as oppressive, yet realize the relative stability it gave to its citizens. In modern Russia, most levels of the government are corrupt, and even to get good medical treatment, one has to pay the doctor a bribe. The vacuum created by the absence of Communism has created an environment that won't change unless the mindset of the entire populace is changed.
But of course, the world (USA) is a lot safer now that the Red Menace has been subdued and the brilliant flames of democracy burn bright through the world.
 
J

jonremedy

Member
jeffy_johnson said:
I am starting to see more and more that democracy, when implemented in an environment in which it did not develop on its own is a bad idea.
Click to expand...

Democracy is the worst form of governance. Except for all the other forms.
 
L

leroidys

Member
In response to the topic, we have to talk address several things. First, there is of course the widespread feeling and paranoia that the west "tricked" Russia into adopting capitalism in an effort to destroy it. In reality, the West couldn't care less if Russia remained communist for the rest of eternity, and this is indeed what the sentiment in the west was before the Berlin wall fell. They believed that it would exist forever, and anybody who tells you they "foresaw" the fall happening when it did is a liar.

In response to the adoption of capitalism, the much reviled Yeltsin was intent on grabbing power one way or another. If he had not ended the communist rule, do you think he would have ruled better as a Bolshevik? The answer is of course no.

In response to the military's state, it is in wide disrepair, but there is no longer any Cold War to fight, so it is not as much needed. However, the Russian government and people very much feel that they have to hold on to these vestiges of power rather than taking better care of its people.

In regards to capitalism, here is an incredibly good article about the fact that Russia can not effectively be called a capitalist state because of the deep corruption at every level (assuming you read Russian.) http://www.novayagazeta.ru/data/2010/007/10.html

Its true that Russia has many more problems now than they did a couple decades ago, but part of what supported this is that Russia had essentially many unwilling vassal states to prop up the nation. Also, the Soviet Union is often derided for its breadlines and soviet housing, but since the 60s people did not really starve or go homeless, in stark contrast to many western countries. Now Russia is seeing these two problems for the first time in decades.

If we can look at Russia right now, we can absolutely say that they are worse off than, say, 1988. However, if we look to the future, it is inevitable that Russia's situation will continue to improve as it haltingly modernizes and a greater middle class is born. I think that a capitalist Russia will be far better off in 2050 than a communist one.

EDIT: Sorry, I linked the wrong article. It's the correct one now.
 
L

leroidys

Member
jonremedy said:
Democracy is the worst form of governance. Except for all the other forms.
Click to expand...


I don't believe this. People say "look at China, you don't need political freedom for economic expansion!", but this is just not a model that will work in the west. Russia IS a (highly flawed) democracy, but it is only through further liberalization of their system of rule that they can achieve the kind of economic growth that the rest of the developing world sees. A dictatorship can only get you so far, and in Russia, the dictators are especially bungling. If a Deng Xiaoping ever took power in Russia, he would be murdered or kicked out within a week by strongmen. Without real accountability to the people, Russia has essentially seen a cycle of Khan's for the past millenium.
 
E

Escape Goat

Member
China is only expanding is because its playing catchup. Its enjoying the same prosperity that America enjoyed 100 years ago. Eventually it'll even out and its progress will slow just like the US did.
 
Z

Zinga

Banned
Russia has a turbulent history, and whilst it is down now it will certainly be on the up in the future, even if it takes centuries to happen.
 
L

leroidys

Member
Kabouter said:
I believe the Baltic states have been the most successful ex-Soviet states.
Click to expand...

Most successful would probably be Poland. The Baltic states were not part of the USSR (but even if you include them, still Poland is a greater success story.)
 
J

jonremedy

Member
leroidys said:
I don't believe this. People say "look at China, you don't need political freedom for economic expansion!", but this is just not a model that will work in the west. Russia IS a (highly flawed) democracy, but it is only through further liberalization of their system of rule that they can achieve the kind of economic growth that the rest of the developing world sees. A dictatorship can only get you so far, and in Russia, the dictators are especially bungling. If a Deng Xiaoping ever took power in Russia, he would be murdered or kicked out within a week by strongmen. Without real accountability to the people, Russia has essentially seen a cycle of Khan's for the past millenium.
Click to expand...

But economic growth isn't the only measure for the success of a country, is it?

Edit: Oh wait, are you agreeing with me in a non-agreeing way? :lol

To clarify, my position is that democracy is the best form of governance. The only problem is that it can be shitty in areas (strong leadership, common vision for the future), but some of these can be mitigated by republics and stuff like that.
 
L

leroidys

Member
jonremedy said:
But economic growth isn't the only measure for the success of a country, is it?

Edit: Oh wait, are you agreeing with me in a non-agreeing way? :lol
Click to expand...

Doh! I meant to quote the same post that you quoted. Sorry for the confusion

jeffy_johnson said:
I am starting to see more and more that democracy, when implemented in an environment in which it did not develop on its own is a bad idea.
Click to expand...

That's the one I meant to post.
 
L

Lagspike_exe

Member
In a strange turn of events, they got the best leadership in centuries thanks to the catastrophic events in the 90s. And just because they don't control the former CIS territories, doesn't mean they don't have enormous influence on them. So, no, it didn't.
 
S

SmokyDave

Member
bonesmccoy said:
Did the dissolution of the USSR, screw Russia in the long run?

No.

Did the adoption of Leninism and Stalinism screw Russia in the long run?

Yes.

Did a lack of political reform in the late 19th Century and centuries of Serfism screw Russia in the long run?

Yes.

Did James Bond screw the USSR?

Yes, and passionately, but only once. USSR was actually a double-agent, who was killed while attempting to assassinate the British House of Lords. It was Bond who fired the fatal shot, and he was the one who ran to her and cradled her limp and lifeless, but still nubile, body in his arms and wondered what the point of it all was.
Click to expand...
:lol

I lost it when I read the last one.
 
O

OpinionatedCyborg

Member
HappyBivouac said:
Comma splices, screwed this thread in the long run.
Click to expand...
A comma splice is a comma that is used to join two independent clauses. "Did the dissolution of the USSR" and "screw Russia in the long run?" are not independent clauses.
 
W

WanderingWind

Mecklemore Is My Favorite Wrapper
I sorta miss old Russia. I always wanted to visit Moscow, but I feel as if it wouldn't be the same these days.
 
S

Sh1ner

Member
WanderingWind said:
I sorta miss old Russia. I always wanted to visit Moscow, but I feel as if it wouldn't be the same these days.
Click to expand...

When I am older I hope to travel bits of Russia. Its on my list of awesomely cool shit to do.
 
E

Eaten By A Grue

Member
Whatever happen to the Red Dawn, Rambo III, and Red Heat Russia that we know and love? Putin needs to bring back the country to it's late 1970's to 1980's glory.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
I am a little ignorent on the transition process from U.S.S.R to Russian Federation

how the hell did the Rich Oligarghs get rich during the transition from Communism to Open market capitalism?

how did these RICH Russians prop up?
 
K

Kabouter

Member
gutter_trash said:
I am a little ignorent on the transition process from U.S.S.R to Russian Federation

how the hell did the Rich Oligarghs get rich during the transition from Communism to Open market capitalism?

how did these RICH Russians prop up?
Click to expand...
Cronies of Yeltsin were given massive state owned holdings for tiny amounts of money.
 
L

leroidys

Member
Lagspike_exe said:
In a strange turn of events, they got the best leadership in centuries thanks to the catastrophic events in the 90s. And just because they don't control the former CIS territories, doesn't mean they don't have enormous influence on them. So, no, it didn't.
Click to expand...

Yep. Compare Putin (or Medvedev if you like) to the 50 leaders that immediately preceded him and he looks pretty saint-like. But it is still not good enough, the country needs to function significantly better if they are to remain relevant in the coming century.

Kabouter said:
Cronies of Yeltsin were given massive state owned holdings for tiny amounts of money.
Click to expand...

Yep, and the problem wasn't just that they had all the assets. They contributed to an extreme de-industrialization of the country because they could make a quick buck gutting their factories rather than actually running them. At one point Estonia, which has no copper reserves to speak of, became the third largest exporter of copper in the world. How? The machinery sold and shipped there from Russia by the oligarchs was packed in copper.
 
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