I agree with many of your points but judgement was decent compared to gears 3. Part 3 was the low point of the series and the reason why this fatigue started. It was uninspired, cheesy and the glowing locust killed it for me. Played through it once and barely touched the multiplayer. People can fly are capable developers and judgement would have received much better if it wasn't for that boring gears 3.
I can see where you're coming from there. I think one of the biggest failures of Gears 3 was the random 6 month gap they injected in the story after Gears 2. There's quite a bit of stuff that actually gets covered in the novels that they try to sum up in a 2 minute video and it just doesn't work.
That aside though, I actually enjoyed Gears 3 in terms of it being a bookend to the trilogy. It felt like a nice swan song.
I probably should have elaborated a bit more when I said that Judgment did a ton of damage to the brand. I was generally speaking about multiplayer, which I'll touch on here in a second.
As far as the campaign goes though, from my understanding, People Can Fly worked on the campaign while Epic handled the majority of the multiplayer. I think PCF did a nice job but the story almost seemed to be a forgotten thought. The gameplay and level design were fantastic but I always anticipated a game starring Baird and Cole to be so much more full of life and character than Judgment was. It just felt like a missed opportunity in that regard.
In terms of multiplayer though, I think that's where the damage was done, at least from what I've seen. I've played Judgment MP a lot less over the last couple months but the population numbers in TDM (most popular playlist) barely reach 1500 on a good day. By comparison Gears 3 TDM still sits at around 6000 a lot of the time.
I visit the Gears forums fairly regularly and from everything I've seen on the forums and in social media, the majority of the dedicated Gears fanbase has completely shunned Judgment in terms of multiplayer. It's not uncommon to find a lot of the hardcore Gears playerbase saying they despise Judgment. There's also been a lot of back and forth, tug of war style dialogue between the community and the developers. Both sides are pretty stubborn. I just think when you factor all that in, Judgment ended up doing more harm to the series than anything else.
All that said though, I didn't dislike Judgment. The campaign was enjoyable and the multiplayer was at least a nice change of pace. The majority of the community has just seemed to shun it completely and I think that's where the damage has been done. That's why I think Epic might be best served to go back to the more traditional Gears formula that they used in the original trilogy, while still taking some of the better aspects of Judgment into consideration.
And wow, guess I got a bit carried away there lol. Sorry this ended up so long winded.