block tower
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What is Nintendo's relevancy in the console market after the Wii U?
- Thread starter block tower
- Start date
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
None.
Thus QoL
Thus QoL
Wreck-It Ralph
Member
There's really no way of knowing outside of waiting to see.
nhlducks35
Member
Courtesy of ScepticMatt
block tower
Member
.
Shikamaru Ninja
任天å ã® å¿è
If the brother architecture of GameConsole/GameHandheld come into fruition, which seems a high likelihood with QoL existing as the variant;
Then there shouldn't be a problem with Nintendo having a more dedicated brand of software playable across either platform. A mainline Pokemon for console or handheld? Sounds win-win to me.
Then there shouldn't be a problem with Nintendo having a more dedicated brand of software playable across either platform. A mainline Pokemon for console or handheld? Sounds win-win to me.
How are you sure that there will BE a console after the Wii U?
And don't give me that investor slide bull. With the whole talk about licensing, QOL and that recent comment about building a "Safety Net" and being more of a entertainment company, it doesn't seem like they'll fully attack the home console market. Especially with the fact that they're struggling with providing a constant, steady release of titles. You think it's bad now, wait until they have to deal with more complex (PS4/XOne,PC) architecture, while also trying to get 3rd parties to develop for their system AND convince indies to stay in contact with the company. You'd get either a Mario or a Zelda each year, plus a few small games to make the whole thing seem less deserted.
And don't give me that investor slide bull. With the whole talk about licensing, QOL and that recent comment about building a "Safety Net" and being more of a entertainment company, it doesn't seem like they'll fully attack the home console market. Especially with the fact that they're struggling with providing a constant, steady release of titles. You think it's bad now, wait until they have to deal with more complex (PS4/XOne,PC) architecture, while also trying to get 3rd parties to develop for their system AND convince indies to stay in contact with the company. You'd get either a Mario or a Zelda each year, plus a few small games to make the whole thing seem less deserted.
Possibly, but right now they're irrelevant.
They're only relevant (and dominant) in the handheld game console market right now, but that market is shrinking due to mobile, where they have no presence.
We can't predict the future, but on their current trajectory they'll slowly wither away as a company. As RurouniZel said in the first reply, "Thus QoL".
BocoDragon
or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Realize This Assgrab is Delicious
Courtesy of ScepticMatt
It blows my mind that 3DS is catching up to NES and SNES in sales. It already surpassed N64.
Remember how it launched and was a relative failure before the pricedrop?
It's certainly at it's lowest point in their history, however the situation can be fixed by a future console in my opinion, provided Nintendo finally learned some hard lessons.
They need to fix their software pipeline. If they can get popular IP out in a timely manner they will be fine.
Going from November 2012-August 2013 between notable Nintendo releases (Pikmin 3) essentially killed the platform. You can make a case that Nintendo went a full year between big releases (NSMBU - SM3DW).
They need to fix their software pipeline. If they can get popular IP out in a timely manner they will be fine.
Going from November 2012-August 2013 between notable Nintendo releases (Pikmin 3) essentially killed the platform. You can make a case that Nintendo went a full year between big releases (NSMBU - SM3DW).
Courtesy of ScepticMatt
Wow. Even Nintendo's core has jumped ship to something else.
Nintendo is in a real bind. Generations grew up with their franchises and this gave them momentum for the next cycle. Now, we have a generation that doesn't know or give a shit about Mario and Zelda because they've had a smartphone or tablet in their hand since age 3 instead of a Nintendo controller or a handheld.
I know its cliche to call for Nintendos Doom, but now we've got evidence of it staring us in the face on this chart.
OT: This QoL stuff really has me thinking that Ninty's next console will be the hybrid console Gaf has discussed many times over. Except with Fitbit like accessories that make gaming a bigger part of the living experience. Hopefully it is extremely innovative and interesting.
I have no clue what their relevancy was. What was it after ps1 and ps2 curbstomped the n64 and gamecube? Had to look pretty bleak back then as well.
I'm strictly talking sales and marketshare. Those Nintendo systems had awesome libraries and have great legacies.
Completely agree. If Nintendo gets it right they could potentially be releasing 20 games a year, maybe even more, across various devices. Practically no way they can fail with no software gaps.
foxuzamaki
Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
Are you seriously asking us to say what will happen in the future as if we have time machines.
BocoDragon
or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Realize This Assgrab is Delicious
It's beginning to look like the Wii was this gigantic fluke.
Maybe Wii U is perfectly in line with the decline that started on N64 and then Gamecube... but the Wii fad outlier totally covered this decline up.
Maybe Wii U is perfectly in line with the decline that started on N64 and then Gamecube... but the Wii fad outlier totally covered this decline up.
Bears and/or sharks will take over all inhabitable land.
JordanN
Banned
I think it's over.
They permanently killed whatever appeal they had left to the core or casual gamer. Their next home console will be a desperate plea to keep the nintendo hardcore from leaving but I bet Nintendo will find a way to piss them off too.
In short: I don't think they'll ever sell more than 10 million home consoles again without some sort of miracle or restructuring.
They permanently killed whatever appeal they had left to the core or casual gamer. Their next home console will be a desperate plea to keep the nintendo hardcore from leaving but I bet Nintendo will find a way to piss them off too.
In short: I don't think they'll ever sell more than 10 million home consoles again without some sort of miracle or restructuring.
TunaMarshmallow
Member
Courtesy of ScepticMatt
Whoa.
I'm sure this has been pointed out a billion times. But I had no idea: if you ignore the Wii blip, Nintendo's home consoles have been declining in total sales since the first generation. Yowza.
GiantEnemyGoomba
Member
There's no way to know right now. We won't know until they show off their new console/consoles way down the road.
TunaMarshmallow
Member
People would be like: "Oh, they're great! They make the best sandwich makers!"
Wreck-It Ralph
Member
Even as shit as the Wii U is doing, I'm fairly sure it's still going to hit 10 million by the end of its life. It might take a couple price cuts and bundles, but it'll get there.
Ah so that's the QOL!
shinra-bansho
Member
With the obvious caveat that past performance does not guarantee future results, the past and present are useful for informing discussion of future plausibilities. The idea that no inferences can be made about long-term prospects is, in my view, a false one.
I think it's perfectly acceptable to talk about what one thinks are the most plausible outcomes based on current information, provided they're willing to adjust those expectations based on incorporating new information.
The idea that "anything can happen" is too often used as a tool to shut down meaningful discussion of what's the most likely to happen, based upon examination of the current situation and trends.
Dynamite Shikoku
Congratulations, you really deserve it!
I don't think they will be able to release another underpowered console and expect much success. I think they will become handheld only, or some kind of hybrid.
It can't be pointed out enough apparently. A ridiculous amount of people are still oblivious of the fact that, aside from the Wii, Nintendo console sales have been decreasing for 3 decades.
Princess Viola
Member
Courtesy of ScepticMatt
The DS was discontinued in 2007? Or is that chart meaning the original model DS or something? (Not discounting the data in the chart though)
MisterHero
Super Member
The concept of a console is in serious question right now. PS4 and XBO are multimedia machines. Amazon plans to do the same for whatever minimal price.
It just seems like people want living room PCs rather than a machine for playing games, but not accept the hardware concessions that keep them affordable.
Pretty soon Nintendo will be the only one making a games-focused machine and people will be like, "It only plays videogames? Videogames are lame!"
It just seems like people want living room PCs rather than a machine for playing games, but not accept the hardware concessions that keep them affordable.
Pretty soon Nintendo will be the only one making a games-focused machine and people will be like, "It only plays videogames? Videogames are lame!"
Aside from support problems, hardware prices and game prices are going up. Hardly surprising.
Outtrigger888
Member
It would be a damn shame seeing nintendo leave the home console business. The wii u has a way better library at the moment compared to the competition. I think nintendo is going to bring it this E3 but I have a feeling its not going to help there current situation. If they leave the console business its going to be one of those "don't know what you had until its gone" situations. Theres not a single gaming company that can compete with the quality + output that nintendo brings to the industry. Plus they make games that me and my kids enjoy. No other company has a broader appeal. There games are magic in my eyes with all the charm and basis on pure fun games that don't require blowing shit up to be fun.
BocoDragon
or, How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Realize This Assgrab is Delicious
It really makes me think that "Nintendo magic" is bullshit. Marching to the beat of their own drum is presumed to be some special wisdom, but in reality it just causes them to lose marketshare generation over generation.
The Wii success took them by surprise, and was largely a matter of luck. It's like a gambler who makes a risky bet, and then concludes that all risky bets will pay off, instead of fail more often than not.
Metallix87
Member
Given the software sales figures on 3DS and, to a lesser extent, Wii U, people still know and care about Mario.
TunaMarshmallow
Member
I'd just never stopped and thought about it. I knew that the GCN was a (near) disaster, and that the N64 performed better than the GameCube but was only a moderate success. I think I'd have guessed that the SNES sold approximately the same number of units as the NES.
Anyway, it's staggering when you step back and think about it. The insane Wii blip aside, their home console business has been shrinking ever fucking generation for *thirty years*!!! That's a remarkable fact!
Their relevance depends entirely on the lessons they learn from their failures with the Wii U, and how they execute what they've learned. I'm in the camp that says Nintendo's going to try for a hybrid console that allows them to have their handheld titles playable on the home unit and vice versa. That would go a long way to solving their software output problem.
Well, it's not like people stop and think about that. Seeing the generation-on-generation declines illustrated like that puts things in a whole new light.
Gator86 said:
Well, it's not like people stop and think about that. Seeing the generation-on-generation declines illustrated like that puts things in a whole new light.
Smiles and Cries
Member
I don't believe I can know what to expect from Nintendo
but until some shuts down the company, they always have a chance to do something huge
but until some shuts down the company, they always have a chance to do something huge
It's tough to tell where Nintendo will go next.
Iwata said himself that his projection estimate is very conservative, and doesn't believe it can't go past that. So if they end up doubling it, then they look like they're coming out good.
Even Pachter thinks Nintendos estimates are low, and that MK8 and SSB4 will help sell around 5-10 million. Or is this the pachter curse?
This is pretty much what I think.
SquiddyCracker
Banned
3rd party.
For once, it is time.
They could do amazing things on Playstation. They already partnered up with sony in the past, now they might as well fulfill that unfulfilled promise and work on one console together.
For once, it is time.
They could do amazing things on Playstation. They already partnered up with sony in the past, now they might as well fulfill that unfulfilled promise and work on one console together.
shinra-bansho
Member
Consoles have been multimedia machines for 20 years. Their core value has still been in delivering interactive entertainment experiences. The nature of those experiences has changed/evolved over time.
I'm not sure what you mean on the second point.
Metallix87
Member
JordanN
Banned
Nintendo are hypocrites then. Wii/Wii U have been advertised with netflix for the longest time. That's not gaming.
Generally speaking the less brand momentum you have, the harder it is to regain your position.
Iwata often mentioned the "virtuous cycle" (positive feedback loop) experienced by the Wii and DS, where the success of the platforms would inspire more word of mouth, more developer support, more software sales, and more brand awareness which would in turn create even more success.
The opposite is also true. If you start declining, you start losing developer support, relationships with customers, word of mouth, brand awareness, and retailer relationships, all of which makes it harder to succeed the next time.
A good case study of this is Sony's efforts into the portable arena. Their success with their first two consoles helped garner lots of customer and developer interest for the initial years of the PSP, but a failure to succeed consistently started to cause all of this to erode. Eventually when it became time to launch the Vita, Sony had lost all their support both on the customer and developer end.
Now, it's not impossible to break out of this cycle, but it's harder, so the Wii U's current situation would most likely point to further issues having success in the future.
Whatever they do, if they want a chance of succeeding next time, they should not repeat the same strategy they did this generation. That's not to say they should clone the strategy of their competitors necessarily, but that they should put all options on the table with the exception of what they just did and spend a long time evaluating each of them. They need to be very realistic about both each option's possibility of success as well as /their/ ability to successfully execute on the strategy.
If at the end of that process they come to the conclusion "We can't really support multiple platforms." that's okay as long as they seriously considered their options and determined it's best. The worst thing to do is to throw resources at something that's never going to work as it puts you further in the hole. If they honestly think they have something they can do that will work, that may be worth a shot as well assuming the downside is catastrophic if it fails.
Iwata often mentioned the "virtuous cycle" (positive feedback loop) experienced by the Wii and DS, where the success of the platforms would inspire more word of mouth, more developer support, more software sales, and more brand awareness which would in turn create even more success.
The opposite is also true. If you start declining, you start losing developer support, relationships with customers, word of mouth, brand awareness, and retailer relationships, all of which makes it harder to succeed the next time.
A good case study of this is Sony's efforts into the portable arena. Their success with their first two consoles helped garner lots of customer and developer interest for the initial years of the PSP, but a failure to succeed consistently started to cause all of this to erode. Eventually when it became time to launch the Vita, Sony had lost all their support both on the customer and developer end.
Now, it's not impossible to break out of this cycle, but it's harder, so the Wii U's current situation would most likely point to further issues having success in the future.
Whatever they do, if they want a chance of succeeding next time, they should not repeat the same strategy they did this generation. That's not to say they should clone the strategy of their competitors necessarily, but that they should put all options on the table with the exception of what they just did and spend a long time evaluating each of them. They need to be very realistic about both each option's possibility of success as well as /their/ ability to successfully execute on the strategy.
If at the end of that process they come to the conclusion "We can't really support multiple platforms." that's okay as long as they seriously considered their options and determined it's best. The worst thing to do is to throw resources at something that's never going to work as it puts you further in the hole. If they honestly think they have something they can do that will work, that may be worth a shot as well assuming the downside is catastrophic if it fails.
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