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EA's stock value grows 3.5 times higher since July 2012

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I was looking at some video game stocks as we near earnings season and noticed this.

Here's the overview, 5 year chart, and all time chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=EA&ql=1

ea1ncje1.png


ea2f4j6y.png


ea33jk88.png
 
They ain't the only ones.

ATVI, Take 2, Ubi, all doing well.

Keep reading that the entire market is disintegrating in the NPD threads though.

Dat dead console market.
 

Somnid

Member
Getting people to pay money for shit is the sign of a business mastermind. Now if only their creative and engineering teams could live up to that.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
They ain't the only ones.

ATVI, Take 2, Ubi, all doing well.

Keep reading that the entire market is disintegrating in the NPD threads though.

Dat dead console market.

Yeah, I'm actually hoping to do a write-up about all of them later, but thought I'd start here to see if there was any general interest in the topic first.

Is there any clear reason why? Perhaps their recent successes in mobile gaming?

A few fronts:

1.) Their margins are much better due to digital (be that DLC, mobile, microtransactions, subscriptions, or full game downloads).
2.) They've canceled almost everything that doesn't make money, so now basically everything they do generates money.
3.) They have games in almost every category, so if one category goes down, it doesn't kill their whole business, and if another one goes up, it helps them. Now, they can't shoot like a rocket like someone entirely invested in one business, but it makes them much more stable.
 

Arkam

Member
Time to sell.

Unless you Bought in when it was at peak. Many of my coworkers are still in the red from the employee purchase program. Yea you get a 15% discount on the stock.... But when it drops from 50 to 12 it doesn't matter.

Glad it's going up but I would hold out if you can cuz I see nothing but value coming once we see the fruits of the Star Wars deals when the movies come.
 

Penguin

Member
They ain't the only ones.

ATVI, Take 2, Ubi, all doing well.

Keep reading that the entire market is disintegrating in the NPD threads though.

Dat dead console market.

I always thought this was one of the symptoms they described.

The market would rally and consolidate around a handful of winners.
 

Tagg9

Member
A few fronts:

1.) Their margins are much better due to digital (be that DLC, mobile, microtransactions, subscriptions, or full game downloads).
2.) They've canceled almost everything that doesn't make money, so now basically everything they do generates money.
3.) They have games in almost every category, so if one category goes down, it doesn't kill their whole business, and if another one goes up, it helps them. Now, they can't shoot like a rocket like someone entirely invested in one business, but it makes them much more stable.

Excellent points. If you just look at their games from the last 12 months, you can see how profitable they are.

Here are their successes:
- Battlefield 4 (Not as popular as BF3, but still a huge cash cow)
- FIFA 14 (Sells ridiculous numbers in Europe)
- FIFA World Cup (New players/jerseys on top of FIFA 14; probably sold > 1 million)
- Madden 14 (Has a monopoly on the market, and always sells decently in North America)
- NCAA 14 (Glorified reskin of Madden, huge margins)
- NHL 14 (Another monopolized sports game, sells a ton in Canada)
- Plants vs Zombies: GW (Will soon be out on 5 different platforms and has sold incredible numbers in comparison to the game's likely slim budget)
- Titanfall (Sold ~2 million copies after Microsoft paid for marketing and then some)

And their "failures":
- EA Sports UFC (Didn't sell great in June, but it should be a slow burner)
- NBA Live 14 (Likely their only game in this list that has lost money, but it's seen as a necessary risk by EA to capture some of the lucrative basketball $$$)
- Need For Speed Rivals (At least broke even, but likely was well below targets; expect EA to ditch the franchise if the next one does poorly as well)

Keep in mind EA also released the duds Fuse, Crysis 3, and Dead Space 3 last year which I haven't included. Don't expect a new entry in either franchise.
 
Dawngate, new Bioware IP, new Visceral IP, PvZ Garden Warfare and more = EA doesn't innovate. Mirror's Edge 2 & DAI looking to go back to its roots based on fan feedback = pure cash grab.

You can say what you want about their sales practices and origin, but their games sell because people like them.
 
EA has probably the biggest positive gap between ''Spending'' and ''Earning''. They got it down. Makes for great business but underwhelming games sadly.
 

random25

Member
Good for them. Back in their heydays, they were around $40 to $60 per share. Good for those who bought during recession or whatever caused it to drop in 2009 where the share prices were below twenties, and sad for those who are still clinging onto it when it experienced that sharp drop.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
- Need For Speed Rivals (At least broke even, but likely was well below targets; expect EA to ditch the franchise if the next one does poorly as well)
I felt it would have been below expectations too, but they've been pretty adamant it's been successful.

They aren't a very big team so that might be a notable factor. Even if you're only shipping 3 million when your series has shipped 5 million in the past, if you only have 150 people on the game, that's still pretty good.

NFS said:
First of all, I wanted to say a big thank-you to all the fans that played Need for Speed Rivals and made the game a huge hit around the world.
http://www.needforspeed.com/news/future-need-speed-0
Polygon said:
"It's really performing for us both in quality and how it's doing on the marketplace," Nilsson said.
http://www.polygon.com/2014/5/23/5742266/need-for-speed-2015-ghost-games-marcus-nilsson
 
I always thought this was one of the symptoms they described.

The market would rally and consolidate around a handful of winners.

It's not a sign of a disintegrating market. That's a sign of a maturing one. Happens in every maturing industry from retail to cheese to cars. Consolidation, winners/losers, emergence of niche/specialty manufacturers to fill market gaps.

Yeah, I'm actually hoping to do a write-up about all of them later, but thought I'd start here to see if there was any general interest in the topic first.

Absolutely there is! We get so wrapped up in the bubble here of resolutions, minutia in PR releases and the physical NPD results that we often as a group fail to see the bigger picture.

Why are these stocks rising, why is the investment community so bullish on the companies when most threads about sales are full of doom and gloom... there are good reasons.

Would be very interesting to get more detail from financials presented. So much of the market is now hidden from view (in particular, DLC, subscriptions, full game downloads, which account for more than half of consumer spend on the consoles by some estimates) that a deeper dive would make for fantastic discussion.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
why? they keep losing money

They had a positive cash flow of $712 million over the past 12 months.

A lot of their revenue is deferred for years because multiplayer games have to distribute their income over a large time period, but all their expenses like marketing, shipping, and disc printing happen up front.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
It's just tracking the market at large. From their 10-K, pg. 23:

iXLaHn4.jpg


It's right on pace with the NASDAQ as a whole, which is where EA is listed.

It's nothing to do with EA in particular. Rising tide lifts all boats, unless you're going bankrupt.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Wow, what caused the gigantic drop in shares value around 2008 or 2009? Any ideas Niro?

Housing bubble. Similar to Kev's point, they tracked down with the market, then didn't recover for a while due to bad fundamentals, and are now actually tracking with it again.

It's just tracking the market at large. From their 10-K, pg. 23:

iXLaHn4.jpg


It's right on pace with the NASDAQ as a whole, which is where EA is listed.

It's nothing to do with EA in particular. Rising tide lifts all boats, unless you're going bankrupt.

This is a good point.
 

Tagg9

Member
I felt it would have been below expectations too, but they've been pretty adamant it's been successful.

They aren't a very big team so that might be a notable factor. Even if you're only shipping 3 million when your series has shipped 5 million in the past, if you only have 150 people on the game, that's still pretty good.

Good to know, I thought for sure it was a disappointment for them.

I remember the first month sales of it only being about ~150k per system (creamsugar?), although NFS games tend to be slow burners. We'll never get any exact numbers, but I suspect that the game has probably sold ~500k for each of the four systems by now (PS3/PS4/360/XB1). It's always performed better on PlayStation platforms, so I wouldn't be surprised if they've hit a million.

There also seems to be a considerable amount of asset recycling occurring in the Need For Speed franchise, which will lower costs even more.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
This is five year instead of 2 year (because a 2 year cagr is a little bit like...whatever), but:

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 5 year CAGR
EA 100 103 107 91 97 159 10%
S&P 100 150 173 188 214 261 21%
NASDAQ 100 158 185 210 226 296 24%
RDG Technology Composite 100 160 184 214 213 272 22%

aka ea sux

i sux at CODE function

Would be nice to have invested in EA in 2012 tho.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
This is five year instead of 2 year (because a 2 year cagr is a little bit like...whatever), but:



aka ea sux

i sux at CODE function

Yeah, as your chart illustrates they were flatlining and then went down for a while before finally turning upward. That's why I felt tracking upward at all is actually a notable improvement for them.
 

Skiny

Neo Member
ea has been beating estimates as of late and also announced a 750m stock buyback program. many companies are issuing debt to buyback stock and inflate stock prices and eps. im not familiar with ea's financial position or where the 750M for buybacks is coming from, but a change in stock price does not always reflect the companies actual performance.
 
It's nothing to do with EA in particular. Rising tide lifts all boats, unless you're going bankrupt.

Indeed, nothing encouraging or positive in the results at EA. Clearly, this is just the case of investors putting money here because the index is doing well.

L8eoFWX.jpg


Latest results.

I too wish I had dumped more money into these stocks in 2012 lol.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
ea has been beating estimates as of late and also announced a 750m stock buyback program. many companies are issuing debt to buyback stock and inflate stock prices and eps. im not familiar with ea's financial position or where the 750M for buybacks is coming from, but a change in stock price does not always reflect the companies actual performance.

everybody's been buying back. it's cray cray the authorizations that have been thrown around recently.

Indeed, nothing encouraging or positive in the results at EA. Clearly, this is just the case of investors putting money here because the index is doing well.

L8eoFWX.jpg


Latest results.


why don't you show me the GAAP figures
 
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