Support NeoGAF

[Mandoric]

Japan console market is nearly dead and Europe isn't as big as the American market. The rest of the markets are pretty much small peas compared to those three giants.

Unless China suddenly gets really excited for console gaming this is basically a large amount of the market suddenly shrinking which means a decrease in demand which is not good news in the slightest.

For example, say that you produce a news show. Most of your audience is older people (65 and up), some is middle age and you used to have a large amount of young people watching your show but they no longer watch it. It's alright, because more older people came in to fill that gap. But say the 65+ group stops watching it. All you have left is some remnant of that group and middle age. That's what people are afraid is happening.

You're assuming that Japan will continue to be dead, rather than ramp back up as handhelds fail to occupy the "almost as good as your last console" niche and American platformholders no longer run away with the console market.

You're also assuming that Europe won't continue to grow, as they recover from the crash of '08 and Sony takes more serious steps outside FIGS.

Both of these are poor assumptions.

 

[Immaculate]

entered late did we get cremasugar numbers and nintendo pr yet?

 

[UberTag]

If I had to guess the videogame market is gravitating to the extremes. Either you find success at the casual end of the market with iOS or you find success at the enthusiast end with PC/PS4 end. I just don't see a market for anything in between.

Look at it this way.
The most talked about game that has come out so far in 2014 is Flappy Bird.

 

[Exokell]

Ok serious question: what happened to all the wii owners?

I was a wii owner when it released but halfway trough the generation a switched to ps3. Did most of them did the same and switched to Ps3/Xbox 360??? Just wondering

Maybe half or less of wii owners bought it for wii sports and then afterwards they just dumped it in their closet.

 

[sphagnum]

entered late did we get cremasugar numbers and nintendo pr yet?

everything sucks

 

[tazz3]

Great job Sony if xbone's 1 price would was 399 I think sales will be closer

 

[shinra-bansho]

not to mention much of the growth was driven by Nintendo
WHOOPS

Much of the decline, not all but much, is also driven by Nintendo. That and the collapse of the music game craze.

Nintendo giveth, Nintendo taketh away.

 

[heidern]

If the Xbone does start to struggle then that will hurt the developers. This in turn could make many games unviable which would mean developers don't make an Xbone version. Even worse, it means they might make no game at all and even the PS4 library gets reduced and limits that platform too. The kind of negative cycle that's leads to a crash.

Wii U < 55K is also terrible. Nintendo at least have lower costs but that's really beginning to tread thin water. They are $50 cheaper and have a whole years game library compared to last year so it should be doing better than last year.

 

[Xyrmellon]

Not that its had a lot of "major" releases anyway, but I bet Borderlands is the last hurrah for the Vita.

 

[pieatorium]

I hope Sony doesn't merely just rest on its laurels and think this is just going to last on its own.

They seem to be very passive in the last months since launch,

Its like they went "Well we're in the lead now. We can just kick back and relax!".

I don't think they realize how tenuous this lead is. It is something that could be EASILY overturned if MS takes some proactive and aggressive steps like price drops, game announcements, etc.

Sony needs to be far more of a domineering force in the industry if they want to keep the lead they have. They need to keep matching Microsoft blow for blow.

Sony needs to be as determined and purposeful as they were last year. They enthusiasm they garnered last year paid big dividends, but it isn't going to last forever if Sony doesn't maintain it.

dec thrgh feb is always queit. GDC, PAX E3 are when things will get exciting again as far as anuncements

 

[PhoenixDawn]

God damn, dedicated hardware is looking to be dying another death.. Wonder if Nintendo wasn't so stupid in trying out that QOL stuff after all as it looks like we're headed for another big crash/lull outside of mobile/steam sales.

 

[Yopis]

On what grounds? Lack of mid-tier titles and systems? That's ok if you ask me. If I sit in front of my TV I expect a grand experience with spectacular visuals, sounds and gameplay. When I want bite size gaming I'll reach for my iPad/iPhone.

Will you pay full price for the grand experience day one, or wait until It is budget price.

 

[Painraze]

Start investing in Steam games bros.... the console industry is dying.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

Hopefully a desperate Micosoft can be a great Microsoft. I am eager to hear what the conversations are like at the Xbox division offices right now. To me, as someone who primarily owns more games on his xbox one right now, this is good news.

I think all this is win win for the console stuff going on, well, except Nintendo.

You know Nintendo fans were saying this exact thing last year right?

 

[rokkerkory]

Price drop for 360 needed come on, it's like 8.5 years old.

$149 or bust... I can't believe it's still $199 for a non-hdd system. ughhh

 

[DrkSage]

I would guess half of them were casual gamers like my aunts that just got sucked into the Wii crazy that was going around in 2007/2008.

Some moved onto other traditional gaming platforms.

Most of them replaced their Wiis with iOS devices.

Combination of mobile gaming, ftp browser stuff like farmville or just quit.

iPad

They are playing Candy Crush Saga now

So mobile gaming

 

[Bgamer90]

You know Nintendo fans were saying this exact thing last year right?

I don't think the third party support on the Xbox One will dry up and completely die though.

Price drop for 360 needed come on, it's like 8.5 years old.

$149 or bust... I can't believe it's still $199 for a non-hdd system. ughhh

Completely agree. It still having an $250+ SKU is ridiculous.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I don't see the industry crashing what i can see is a one console future along with PC.
Which might not be so bad , last gen we had companies spending millions just to port games because system were not alike should be better this gen .
Would be interesting to see a one console , PC , mobile industry no matter the company .

 

[Steel]

You're assuming that Japan will continue to be dead, rather than ramp back up as handhelds fail to occupy the "almost as good as your last console" niche and American platformholders no longer run away with the console market.

3ds doesn't occupy that niche at all and the vita isn't selling well, it picked up but not that much. The console audience in japan moved to handhelds and handheld audience has been moving to mobile in japan. So, I'm not sure what you're pointing at is a reason that next-gen will do well.

All this being said, I actually believe the PS4 will sell well in Japan, at least for the first few months.

 

[outunderthestars]

If the Xbone does start to struggle then that will hurt the developers. This in turn could make many games unviable which would mean developers don't make an Xbone version. Even worse, it means they might make no game at all and even the PS4 library gets reduced and limits that platform too. The kind of negative cycle that's leads to a crash.

Wii U < 55K is also terrible. Nintendo at least have lower costs but that's really beginning to tread thin water. They are $50 cheaper and have a whole years game library compared to last year so it should be doing better than last year.

Price has nothing to do with it. Sony is selling every PS4 they can make at $400. People simply do not want what Nintendo is selling.

 

[Zophar]

I will say this, MS are super aggressive, if this keeps up they will drop the price in a hurry.

The Xbox 360 is 8 years old and you can't still buy one with a reasonably sized hard drive for under $250.

 

[ambientmystic]

entered late did we get cremasugar numbers and nintendo pr yet?

TRDE: total < 85k

fitu < 20K

just guessing

3ds: 130k
ps3: 60k
360: 50k
wii u: 55k
wii: 25k
vita: 25k

Too mach for all of them.

.

 

[prag16]

I don't think the third party support on the Xbox One will dry up and completely die though.

True, though getting the "worst version" of every damn game will hurt.

 

[Rogue_Ledr]

If the Xbone does start to struggle then that will hurt the developers. This in turn could make many games unviable which would mean developers don't make an Xbone version. Even worse, it means they might make no game at all and even the PS4 library gets reduced and limits that platform too. The kind of negative cycle that's leads to a crash.

Dude, with all due respect, even though the PS4 is obviously doing really well right now, we are FAAAAAAR from a time when developers will start cancelling XB1 versions of major games. At least, in large numbers. There may be some Japanese games that are PS4 only and a handful of Western ones, but I cant see it being in substantial numbers anytime soon.

This might allow Sony to have more power in securing some third party exclusives for PS4. However, that is something they've always done. They just haven't done it as much in recent years, because of the PS3's disparity with X360 in sales.

 

[Jamix012]

I don't think the third party support on the Xbox One will dry up and completely die though.

No, but 3rd party support also won't shift units if it's just multiplats running at lower resolution and framerate.

 

[BigDug13]

If the Xbone does start to struggle then that will hurt the developers. This in turn could make many games unviable which would mean developers don't make an Xbone version. Even worse, it means they might make no game at all and even the PS4 library gets reduced and limits that platform too. The kind of negative cycle that's leads to a crash.

Wii U < 55K is also terrible. Nintendo at least have lower costs but that's really beginning to tread thin water. They are $50 cheaper and have a whole years game library compared to last year so it should be doing better than last year.

Hahaha XBone is not struggling at the levels you suggest. Nor do I think they will be.

XBone will be a viable platform for third parties throughout the generation. They just won't be lead platform and their port quality will suffer with the lower specs. Lower sales projections only exacerbates their problems getting third parties to get their performance close to parity.

 

[shinra-bansho]

You know Nintendo fans were saying this exact thing last year right?

I don't think the One is fundamentally flawed in concept in the same way the Wii U is for the market.

There's a market for the device, just not a huge one at $500. If they can reach parity with the PS4 in price then it will probably perform similarly - then the decision simply become which services and ecosystem one prefers.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Don't forget the Wii U tracked ahead of PS360 early on. This long gen led to bigger than usual pent up demand out of the gate. The real test is happening now thru the first half of this year.

True enough; I don't remember PS360's first Jan #s, but I'm sure they weren't as high as PS2's, and right now PS4's are clearly higher.

I just think a lot of people (myself included earlier on when I made a post about monthly sales long back) were just overestimating January #s here riding off Nov/Dec highs and not taking into account typical Jan. figures. I'm not concerned just yet about PS4 #s; we'll see how things look in a few months I suppose.

The XBO #s are the ones I'm most concerned about; massive drop that seems very unusual, and we know it isn't selling like hotcakes outside the U.S. Someone at MS has to be panicking when they take that fact into consideration.

 

[Rogue_Ledr]

dec thrgh feb is always queit. GDC, PAX E3 are when things will get exciting again as far as anuncements

I am hoping Sony will be more open earlier in the year though.

There is supposed to be a Feb. Playstation Destination, right? Like last year? That would be a supreme opportunity to get the hype rolling for 2014.

 

[DrkSage]

Maybe half or less of wii owners bought it for wii sports and then afterwards they just dumped it in their closet.

Sad thing is... I kinda did the same only difference was that I bought the wii mostly for The legend of Zelda and Mario kart that's mostly it :|

 

[Imperfected]

You know Nintendo fans were saying this exact thing last year right?

But panic mode Nintendo has given us an actual fighter in Smash, a stand-in for the kid Motoko Kusanagi tried to molest in 2nd Gig in Bayo 2, and half a screenshot of X!

Worth.

 

[Ahasverus]

I'm being honest, I would not be mad if consoles sales declined and stayed at 40M or somthing if that means the "casual" wave it's over, I'd rather have a smaller more focused industry than one that wants to cater to 200 million at the same time.

But panic mode Nintendo has given us an actual fighter in Smash, a stand-in for the kid Motoko Kusanagi tried to molest in 2nd Gig in Bayo 2, and half a screenshot of X!

Worth.

Don't forget Cranky Kong.

 

[Conezays]

Happy for Sony, but let's see some more games for 2014!!!! Gimme exclusives!

 

[jett]

creamsugar already done?

 

[FiggyCal]

Do I still need to respond or do you see your issue?

Yes. Putting revenue instead of profit was dumb. But I still don't see an industry collapse.

 

[Sandfox]

I don't think the One is fundamentally flawed in concept in the same way the Wii U is for the market.

There's a market for the device, just not a huge one at $500. If they can reach parity with the PS4 in price then it will probably perform similarly - then the decision simply become which services and ecosystem one prefers.

That really depends on whether you think putting such a focus on the Kinect could be considered a flaw.

 

[njean777]

Just FYI the gamestop employees I have talked to still tell me ps4's are sold out everywhere in the Houston area in their stores. Let's not panic people, the ps4 is still in shortage I believe. At least in Houston it is.

 

[RE_Player]

With every single multiplatform game guaranteed to perform worse in some way on Xbox One I can't see any Xbox One version selling more than the PS4 version at a simultaneous launch. I expect Microsoft to engage in much more exclusive content deals, be it early maps, more levels etc., to try and close the gap.

 

[Neuromancer]

Played Tomb Raider last year. Loved it. Playing it now. You should check out the OT here on GAF. Peoples loving it.

Just a theory. We'll see if low sales continue next month for the game. I suspect they will, for the reasons I gave.

 

[imtehman]

You know Nintendo fans were saying this exact thing last year right?

you mention nintendo but dont mention sony and the ps3 and the turnaround they made? smh

 

[BigDug13]

Don't forget the Wii U tracked ahead of PS360 early on. This long gen led to bigger than usual pent up demand out of the gate. The real test is happening now thru the first half of this year.

The test is happening right now and Sony is still selling every PS4 that rolls off the line soon after it's built. There shouldn't be worry about that until consoles are sitting on shelves. That hasn't happened yet for Sony.

Sony has massive worldwide appeal and seems to now have large NA appeal. I'm still waiting on any reports of dust on any PS4 box at a retailer outside of New Zealand and Brazil.

 

[Jetlagger]

I don't think they realize how tenuous this lead is. It is something that could be EASILY overturned if MS takes some proactive and aggressive steps like price drops, game announcements, etc.

I don't disagree with anything you're saying, but I think Sony knows better than anyone how to keep playing its hand right now.

Who used to be in the same position MS is in now? Sony.

Who had an even bigger price differential? Sony.

Who had an even tougher architecture to get its developers up and running on? Sony.

Who has been through that grinder and would know better than anyone what the best strategy to take would be? Sony.

Microsoft gonna learn today.

 

[Jamix012]

I don't think the One is fundamentally flawed in concept in the same way the Wii U is for the market.

There's a market for the device, just not a huge one at $500. If they can reach parity with the PS4 in price then it will probably perform similarly - then the decision simply become which services and ecosystem one prefers.

I do agree, but I think it has to be done extremely soon (like before holidays soon) before they lose mindshare and before anyone interested in a next-gen console wants to join their friends on the more-popular PS4.

you mention nintendo but dont mention sony and the ps3 and the turnaround they did? smh

Eh, while the Xbox One is not nearly in as bad a predicament as the Wii U, it's not in the same situation as the PS3 either IMO. Even if it drops to PS4 price, it'll always be the bulkier, less powerful hardware with less Japanese games and first party titles.

 

[Beant]

Just FYI the gamestop employees I have talked to still tell me ps4's are sold out everywhere in the Houston area in their stores. Let's not panic people, the ps4 is still in shortage I believe. At least in Houston it is.

So you are telling me need a chalkboard for console gaming with everything else but PS4 crossed out.

 

[AstroNut325]

Those big, grand scale games you like so much are draining whatever life this industry has left at an alarming rate. A healthy industry shouldn't be a spectrum with only two extremes.

But why? Can you back that assertion with any empirical data? Or is the concern simply due to a lack of mid-budget titles that carry high risks? Also, can you substantiate your claim that the large scale productions are draining the life out of the industry? What makes you say this? It just because you're seeing the demise of certain genres?

We're already in an industry phase where to really play in development, you have to throw millions upon millions of dollars at something (like Ubisoft, EA, etc) and one or two missteps can equal the complete shuttering of a company. Alternatively, you can just make your Candy Crush flavor of the month with shitloads of microtransactions for absolutely no effort. Why would you want things to get even worse in that regard?

Again, the avenues of gaming are shifting. That doesn't mean the industry as a whole is Candy Crush and COD.

Edit:

Will you pay full price for the grand experience day one, or wait until It is budget price.

That depends on the game. The next game from Polyphony Digital? $60 day 1 no questions asked. The next Battlefield? I will wait till it's $20-30.

 

[Hellsing321]

Start investing in Steam games bros.... the console industry is dying.

I put all my futures in Steam Sales. Things are looking good.

 

[jroc74]

I didnt expect this. I do get swayed from time to time reading opinions opposite of mine. Recently seeing so many XBO's at a US Sams Club and no PS4's in site ...I bought the theory that the XBO was gonna catch up with the PS4 do to it being in stock more.

Seems many ppl are just waiting in retail stores days at a time for PS4 shipments, announcements, hitting refresh in their browsers for PS4's available online....


Amazing. Software sales too. I said this before...but are many ppl really doing in depth research about games? Tomb Raider for the PS4 outselling the XBO version? Does Sony have that big of a lead in console sales...or did ppl actually do research about the game or specs of each console?

Amazing whatever the case is.

 

[quest]

Hahaha XBone is not struggling at the levels you suggest. Nor do I think they will be.

XBone will be a viable platform for third parties throughout the generation. They just won't be lead platform and their port quality will suffer with the lower specs. Lower sales projections only exacerbates their problems getting third parties to get their performance close to parity.

Problem is if things don't turn around quickly the Xbone won't make it till the end of the generation. The division was on thin ice making money last few years. Now they will be bleeding money with poor sales. I can see the new CEO giving in to stock holder pressure and kill the division if things don't get better come this time next year.

 

[pieatorium]

Yes. Putting revenue instead of profit was dumb. But I still don't see an industry collapse.

theres another issue, 2005 - 2010 contains the height of both the wii and plastic music boom but the bust came after

 

[njean777]

So you are telling me need a chalkboard for console gaming with everything else but PS4 crossed out.

No just passing on what I have learned. Still to early to tell if console gaming is in decline yet or not. Even if it is, that is not always a bad thing.