That's already happening/happened on PC. The main issue is that console indie games weren't given the chance to expand last gen, and Japanese devs were pretty much absent in that market.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for January 2014 [Up3: PS4/XB1 #1/#2 best selling; Poke/SM3DW/ALBW]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
That's already happening/happened on PC. The main issue is that console indie games weren't given the chance to expand last gen, and Japanese devs were pretty much absent in that market.
It won't be spun off be no point still be feeding it cash to get off life support. No one will buy it as a whole because it is a shrinking market with no huge margins on hardware for a samsung. It will be sold off in peices with MS keeping some of the valuable patents(like kinect patents) and fire sale on the rest.
BruceLeeRoy
Banned
Yeah the price is killing them. If they bring it down to parity with the PS4 the difference in visuals will matter but not enough to keep them out of a profitable console.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
pieatorium
Member
same i demand a recount
Saint Gregory
Member
I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure that wasn't the case. I remember by early December I was tripping over stacks of them at my local BestBuy.
I also remember one of the Sony execs challenging anyone who could find one with a $1200 dollar bounty and the thread for it was instantly filled with pictures of stacks people were finding at their local retailer.
Right, I think when we look at what's still performing in the market we see:
1.) AAAA megablockbusters are doing better than ever, and people wolf them down on an annual basis and buy a ton of DLC and microtransactions for them to boot.
2.) Small indie games are on a strong upward trend, especially on PC.
3.) f2p games are very strong both on PC and mobile.
4.) Digital game downloads are healthy, be they paid iOS apps, Steam games, or major XBLA titles. The smaller titles on these systems don't always do so hot (there's a sea of failed XBLA games and iOS paid titles), but there are still a lot of strong points to look at.
However, much of what made up the console and handheld market (retail games of a more modest scale) have had their market evaporate, and the casual market has left both handhelds and home consoles in favor of mobile or select f2p/browser experiences.
Outside of the PS4/XB1 there isn't a great place to play category #1, and until there is, they still have a market. Looking like the crappier, more expensive system to play them on however is not conducive to good sales.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Pantless recount ahoy!
i remember we didn't really have ps3s in stock until right around christmas. and then we got a huge supply of them (like 20 consoles) right after.
360 - 294,000
PS3 - 244,000
pieatorium
Member
there could also be an aspect of the limited supply of all other launches bleeding demand past the holidays. I definitely think this was the case for the PS3 which is the system you singled out for the comparison
And_Gignac
Member
Thank you Aqua, Queen of GAF 
Saint Gregory
Member
It has been a while so I could be remembering early January instead. I'm sure someone else can shed some light on it.
that's true and i later corrected myself.
nah, the 360 was an anomaly, everything is just returning to the days of playstation domination.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
freefornow
Gold Member
So PS4 sold 130k more than XB1 in Jan. Not insignificant, but not really screaming XB1 doooooomed.
all i really remember is having the first post-launch shipment in forever, and then we got a stack of ps3s to the ceiling and we were all wondering when, if ever, we would sell all of them.
shinra-bansho
Member
Thanks, Aquamarine!
It will be a long while before the PS3 and 360 manage to cross streams with the PS4 and XB1 I imagine.
Wii will probably cross with XB1 in March though by my guess.
Hmm, distinct possibility. Especially for those after a really good mix of indie/AAA and what remains of mid-tier. I wonder if NPD will include Steam machines at some point.
For reference:
It will be a long while before the PS3 and 360 manage to cross streams with the PS4 and XB1 I imagine.
Wii will probably cross with XB1 in March though by my guess.
McHuj
Member
I think these results show pretty clearly that their is only one desirable console at the moment in the market, PS4. The remaining consoles are either undesirable (WiiU) or over priced (X1, X360, PS3).
It's obvious the $499 price is killer for MS on the X1. But who in their right mind would pay $200-$250 for a 360 or PS3 at this point? Both should be sub $150 and bargain bin.
On the PS4, I think Sony allocated many more units to NA for holiday, but started to move more units to Europe for January as well as stock piling some for Japan. If they make 1M a month (I know Pachter claimed 1.4, but that was a theory not a fact), I think a reasonable estimate would be ~300k to NA, ~500k to rest of world, ~200k stock piled for Japan launch. It would not surprise me if Sony was over 5M sell through (they were projecting publicly end of March).
It's obvious the $499 price is killer for MS on the X1. But who in their right mind would pay $200-$250 for a 360 or PS3 at this point? Both should be sub $150 and bargain bin.
On the PS4, I think Sony allocated many more units to NA for holiday, but started to move more units to Europe for January as well as stock piling some for Japan. If they make 1M a month (I know Pachter claimed 1.4, but that was a theory not a fact), I think a reasonable estimate would be ~300k to NA, ~500k to rest of world, ~200k stock piled for Japan launch. It would not surprise me if Sony was over 5M sell through (they were projecting publicly end of March).
PS4 was supply limited, Xbox One wasn't.
I think the issue is it's 130k in the one market Xbox had a stranglehold on. Worldwide it's only going to be much larger which is why there is concern.
If both consoles were sitting on shelves and these were the sales numbers, I'd agree. But only one of the two has reached that point.
Thanks for the numbers, but eh... Where are the magical creamsugar numbers?
How are we supposed to properly laugh at Vita numbers at this rate?
SlipperySlope
Banned
So... YoY drops from the numbers we have, correct me if wrong.
360 seems to be -82%?
PS3 -70%
3DS - Down, no idea of %
WiiU - Down, no idea of %
Even going 5 weeks to 4, this is fucking terrible.
On top of that one new console doing 143k and the other < 286k?
Just one big clusterfuck, all of it.
360 seems to be -82%?
PS3 -70%
3DS - Down, no idea of %
WiiU - Down, no idea of %
Even going 5 weeks to 4, this is fucking terrible.
On top of that one new console doing 143k and the other < 286k?
Just one big clusterfuck, all of it.
BoboBrazil
Member
Honestly believe alot of why the system did so well in December was people buying gifts and unable to get PS4s so they just decided to get a X1 instead. Alot of people don't like seeing their loved ones disappointed/angry(spoiled), so they got the next best thing. I think the gap will widen as PS4 stock becomes available at retail. Stock finally came in for more than a day at Amazon http://amzn.com/B00BGA9WK2
And that's a bad thing?
This is the best case scenario. We should be so lucky.
SlipperySlope
Banned
Nice, numbers! Can we have 360 and PS3?
It is the low number the Xbone sold that is the issue. If it was 630k vs 500k there would be no doom talk. But 130k with fully stuffed retail chain is a disaster. Might was well get the pole vaulter GIF out because it will go sub 100k soon as next month.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
They really shit the bed. It was more MS blowing it than anything Sony did. All Microsoft had to do was release a console as powerful as PS4, without Kinect, $399, and none of the DRM drama and they would have won this gen. This epic blunder should be discussed in business classes down the line, it's that bad.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
So the Wii U basically did the same as last year's January (considering that was a 5 week month and this Jan was a 4 week month)... Not sure what to think except that it's just continuing to be terrible... Aqua, any idea what the Dreamcast was selling at on the same time (Jan)?
Also, any 3DS numbers? Vita/Wii might be interesting though I guess.
Also, any 3DS numbers? Vita/Wii might be interesting though I guess.
rokkerkory
Member
let's see if this continues for 3 more months
tehrik-e-insaaf
Member
If you guys are freaking out right now about game console numbers - wait till you see how freaked out Apple and Samsung are regarding the future growth of smartphones and peoples' willingness to replace them in developed markets over the next 60 months.
By some accounts we are very close to sustained secular decline for the rate of growth in smartphone sales in the United States.
This is because of the rise of "Bring your own Device" plans that unpair your service from your smart phone. When people have to pay hundreds of dollars for marginal upgrades to their phone, they think twice especially if they can just pocket the difference of that monthly fee.
If there isn't a killer app developed for next-gen smartphones that motivates people to get excited about upgrading their phones at full prices then the growth prospects of that industry aren't too hot either beyond natural replacement rates. That might in turn have some positive effect on new consoles, but consoles are also looking for a hit game and nothing on the horizon seems to have that promise for now.
Anyways, the overall decline of video game sales has a silver lining. The industry can shrink and focus again on good design rather than modeling serial numbers and dog teeth to please a tiny audience of users.
I am ridiculously excited about indie developers and believe they will push new types of game play. I also believe if consoles are going to match last gen's userbase, it is going to be because of something amazing an indie or small studio produces. I see less probability in the "AAA" stuff driving demand going forward because those experiences aren't novel anymore.
What's more exciting: if these behemoth "AAA" studios slim down and a bunch just die out, we could experience another golden age of gaming where we get late 80s through mid 90s level awesomeness with teams of 5-30 people coming together to make well-designed games targeting a variety of users and needs. You will be able to play those games anywhere... on the iPad or your phone or maybe even on your new smart watch... with a variety of different input methods (from pedometer to camera to touch to traditional controls) and features...
Oh, and before someone mentions it... obligatory "These results came right after Pachter said 'This generation will be the biggest yet!'"
By some accounts we are very close to sustained secular decline for the rate of growth in smartphone sales in the United States.
This is because of the rise of "Bring your own Device" plans that unpair your service from your smart phone. When people have to pay hundreds of dollars for marginal upgrades to their phone, they think twice especially if they can just pocket the difference of that monthly fee.
If there isn't a killer app developed for next-gen smartphones that motivates people to get excited about upgrading their phones at full prices then the growth prospects of that industry aren't too hot either beyond natural replacement rates. That might in turn have some positive effect on new consoles, but consoles are also looking for a hit game and nothing on the horizon seems to have that promise for now.
Anyways, the overall decline of video game sales has a silver lining. The industry can shrink and focus again on good design rather than modeling serial numbers and dog teeth to please a tiny audience of users.
I am ridiculously excited about indie developers and believe they will push new types of game play. I also believe if consoles are going to match last gen's userbase, it is going to be because of something amazing an indie or small studio produces. I see less probability in the "AAA" stuff driving demand going forward because those experiences aren't novel anymore.
What's more exciting: if these behemoth "AAA" studios slim down and a bunch just die out, we could experience another golden age of gaming where we get late 80s through mid 90s level awesomeness with teams of 5-30 people coming together to make well-designed games targeting a variety of users and needs. You will be able to play those games anywhere... on the iPad or your phone or maybe even on your new smart watch... with a variety of different input methods (from pedometer to camera to touch to traditional controls) and features...
Oh, and before someone mentions it... obligatory "These results came right after Pachter said 'This generation will be the biggest yet!'"
Holy fk at these sales.....no wonder MS wrote that essay with so much gibberish and Ninty have a ND
I was joking about vita being 10k but now that won't be much of a surprise at all it seems lol SCEA not giving a fuck doesn't help either
All things considered PS4 did amazing!
I was joking about vita being 10k but now that won't be much of a surprise at all it seems lol SCEA not giving a fuck doesn't help either
All things considered PS4 did amazing!
shinra-bansho
Member
AniHawk put 60K for PS3 in his guess, iirc. So 50k<PS3<60k.
Everything excluding PS3+PS4 is less than 330K, but more than 320K. Take 141K for XB1 and 49K for Wii U and you have 130-140K for everything else i.e. 3DS, 360, PSV, PSP, NDS Wii.