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on the reliability of NPD data

7

7DollarHagane

Banned
Certain industry "professionals" have recently gone to twitter to explain the supposed flaws of the NPD monthly sales reports.

Claims were made about data being off by as much as 40%, npd not using data from 90% of retail outlets, and "big analysts" not using or considering NPD to be reliable.

Is this true? Can anyone with a little more knowledge of the subject explain?

I feel that in the case of this specific individual it was an attempt to discredit results that were not favorable for his preferred console maker but I do wonder how accurate this data is that inspires such fervered discussion.

I realize no research is 100% accurate but I was under the impression that NPD was a standard for investors and analysts not only in the game industry but elsewhere.

Thanks in advance for anyone able to offer some insight.
 
M

Miles Quaritch

Member
Depends on who made the claims and if there are any other reasons for them to want to cast doubt on the numbers.

. Do you have any links to specific tweets?
 
T

TyrantII

Member
a_560x375.jpg
 
L

LastGamer84

Member
Sounds like those "industry professionals" are looking for any way to spin the poor Xbox One sales any way they can. I notice no one was doing this last gen when the PS3 was doing poorly out of the gate...but now all the sudden NPD isn't to be trusted? More spin doctoring by people who should know better.
 
B

bigkrev

Member
Karl Rove once went nuts on Fox News on Election Night because he could not believe the data that was being presented to him, even as it was being explained to him how it works.

Some people are just blind fanboys.
 
dugdug

dugdug

Banned
As far as I can tell, these claims didn't really come up until the start of this generation.

What could it mean?
 
C

Cirekiller

Member
LastGamer84 said:
Sounds like those "industry professionals" are looking for any way to spin the poor Xbox One sales any way they can. I notice no one was doing this last gen when the PS3 was doing poorly out of the gate...but now all the sudden NPD isn't to be trusted? More spin doctoring by people who should know better.
Click to expand...

Exactly, it's pretty telling that they chose to use this month of any to complain about accuracy. Funny thing that...
 
B

BruiserBear

Banned
The fact that Microsoft themselves put out a full press release in reaction to the NPD news, should tell you they think it's pretty fucking accurate.
 
J

Jomjom

Banned
Xer0 said:
As far as I can tell, these claims didn't really come up until the start of this generation.

What could it mean?
Click to expand...

NPDs been slacking.

Also does this mean that we can no longer take as fact that the ps2 and 360 were the dominant consoles in the US? This changes everything.
 
D

Donos

Member
Didn't Dent complain about NPD a few hours before the release of NPD report and people thought that this would be a sign of PS4 > XB1?
 
M

MarkusRJR

Member
SolidSnakex said:
Polygon staff and Kevin Dent.
Click to expand...
So basically some of the least "professional" people in the industry who are all pro-Xbox are discrediting something that recent put Xbox in a bad light? I can't even muster the energy to be surprised anymore.

Also, when the big three all use NPD as a source it assumes it's relatively accurate.
 
E

Elios83

Member
They are considered reliable enough that the same MIcrosoft made a PR about them :D
Some people are really poor losers.
 
T

TyrantII

Member
If "journalists" were into analytical statics and calculus, they wouldn't be doing journalism.

The concern trolling is pretty unbecoming of them BTW. MS, Sony, Nintendo and a shit ton of investment analysts and retail supply channel experts don't spend the kind of money they do for these numbers because it's just made up.

They're not 1:1 accurate, but they're pretty damn good snapshots. And either way, the industry itself sees them as real, so they are the real numbers for all intent and purposes.
 
J

Jburton

Banned
Funny how these people didn't bring this up in December when X1 won NPD, or the years the 360 was on top.

I smell sour grapes, bias and people trying to keep on the right side of the MS advertising penny ...... especially Polygon.


The amount of MS bias that seems to emanate from the US based games media in particular is bullshit.


NPD is just as good as it was two years ago or in December.
 
H

HardRojo

Member
Some outlets just can't keep their bias to themselves but I'm not surprised it's Polygon (Buchera specially) and Dent.
Reflecting back on what Dent tweeted back in March must hurt a lot.
 
A

androvsky

Member
My understanding is their issue with NPD is the lack of tracking digital game sales. Obviously doesn't affect console hardware. ;)
 
C

coolasj19

Why are you reading my tag instead of the title of my post?
The NPD is 100% accurate because that's what the video game companies we talk about use as an official metric for their sales. It is 100% accurate in both theoretically and in practice because that's what we base everything off of.

Just like how the kilogram is based off of some piece of material somewhere in Europe. There's 2 others like it right next to it but the one in the middle is the kilogram. Even if it's not actually a kilogram, it is a kilogram.
 
J

Jonboy

Member
This is ridiculous. If there was any truth to this whatsoever, the companies themselves wouldn't be citing NPD in all their releases. MS would want everyone to know if they had actually sold more.

Companies know how many units they're making and how many they're selling. If the NPD figures differed drastically from their internal numbers, we'd certainly know about it.
 
T

TyrantII

Member
anexanhume said:
Polygon staff were arguing about the importance and meaning of the data and how to interpret it, not disputing its accuracy. Dent was outright saying they're wildly inaccurate.
Click to expand...

Plot the points on a trend line is you easily see the PS4 is actually increasing it's spread, although very slowly.

I think a better explanation is they were floating how to spin it.
 
LiquidMetal14

LiquidMetal14

hide your water-based mammals
Jburton said:
Funny how these people didn't bring this up in December when X1 won NPD, or the years the 360 was on top.

I smell sour grapes, bias and people trying to keep on the right side of the MS advertising penny ...... especially Polygon.


The amount of MS bias that seems to emanate from the US based games media in particular is bullshit.


NPD is just as good as it was two years ago or in December.
Click to expand...
I actually agree.
 
D

duckroll

Member
I guess here's the question. If someone honestly believes that NPD data is not accurate, then what would they find more accurate? Which organization has more comprehensive tracking and better estimates? If there is none, then how does an individual arrive at the conclusion that NPD data is grossly inaccurate? Accuracy is about comparison, and if there is nothing to compare it with, isn't that a strange claim to make?
 
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