Opus Angelorum
Member
It actually decreases the likelihood.
It was due to land at 05:10 local time, so around 6 hours before it was first reported.
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Algeria 'loses contact with plane'
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It actually decreases the likelihood.
It was due to land at 05:10 local time, so around 6 hours before it was first reported.
Jezbollah
Member
If Opus' pic didnt convince you - before MH17 there was one fatal civilization aviation fatality classified in 2014 (because they haven't classified MH370 as we dont know what caused it).
If you combine that statistic with the amounts of civilian air movements per day, and then add on the reliability of flying from the 1950s, then you would have 10 fatal air accidents per day.
Flying is insanely safe these days.
If you combine that statistic with the amounts of civilian air movements per day, and then add on the reliability of flying from the 1950s, then you would have 10 fatal air accidents per day.
Flying is insanely safe these days.
MikeHattsu
Member
10 hours since it was last seen. Over 6 hours, almost 7 since it was supposed to land.
People.
What does general population risk per year meaning? If I never travel by air, am I still counted in the risk?
Yeah, that's why there's a lower risk in the "general population" for Motorcycles vs. cars, but of the population who ride/own a motorcycle the risk is higher vs cars.
No it doesn't - unless of course you mean that initiatives will be taken to increase aircraft safety as a response to past crashes.
TOP SHOTTA
Member
I THINK that is a fallacy. If I remember correctly, it's some a science/skeptic kind of concept of a fallacy. Maybe a logical fallacy? I think if you look at it over time, two events have little if anything to do with each other. It's a terrifying, random occurrence - but to say that it can be somehow counteracted or offset this way is false.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Yes this is what I meant.
Yes, in hindsight it's not accurate to say it would decrease the chances.
TOP SHOTTA
Member
Yup. Correct. Thank you.
I have Skeptic's Guide to the Universe to thank on that one.
And I can thank my porous brain for not remembering what specific lesson it was exactly.
Opus Angelorum
Member
Too much of a coincidence that two planes have both mysteriously vanished. I accept my statement is hyperbolic as we don't know many details yet, but yea, the chances of two flights both vanishing in one year is slim to none.
A Serious Man
Member
Probably Hydra.
It follows that if a terrorist group brought down either, or both planes, they'd probably take credit for it.
I knew I'd get replies like this, but yea, read my reply above.
Broder Salsa
Banned
Personally I think it's atheist extremists.
Partial Gamification
Banned
This plane could have been hit with hardware Qaddafi was shipping to the Sahal from Libya.
You do realize that this plane is not yet misteriously vanished, right? It's vanished because it wasn't found yet. That doesn't mean it won't be found in the next days, as usually happen.
Let's wait for more details, but two flights completely disappearing is as far as I'm aware, a very rare occurrence.
HassanJamal
Member
Damn man, this has been a weird and depressing month.
Imp the Dimp
Member
Wait, is it one or two planes missing? The posts in this thread confuse me.
Opus Angelorum
Member
One, there was initial confusion with the plane inventory.
Hence why my above comment is hyperbolic for now.
No it doesn't. That's a misunderstanding of probability. It isn't probable that another plane would crash during this time frame. However, when this plane took off, it had the same probability of experiencing problems like any other aircraft.
What is the chance of getting 10 heads in a row? Very low. What are the chance of the next throw being heads? Always 50%.
Broder Salsa
Banned
It's not just hyperbole, it's also rather silly to start speculating and blaming some group for it.
Err... I can't tell if this is a serious post or not...
TheContact
Member
So the weather short circuited the electronics or something? I hope it landed safely, it could have glided down and made a relatively soft landing if they had the room to land. Going to keep my hopes up
This one?
I'm pretty sure they're not slim to none compared to one plane vanishing. What is slim to none though, is the possibility that two flights continents apart are subject to some grand islamist terror-scheme.
Deaf Spacker
Memb
smh Should have taken your own advice.
What happened with The Malaysian Airlines flight I found to be disturbing, the idea a plane can disappear etc. Wasn't thinking rationally when I saw the thread title.
Partial Gamification
Banned
Hopefully.
"Violent storms in the region."
La Monde re-reported (from El País [Spain])
http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/arti...disparait-des-ecrans-radars_4462204_3234.html
Sapphire Dreams
Member
It crashed ?
Damn...
Damn...
ItAintEasyBeinCheesy
it's 4th of July in my asshole
RIP.
GameAddict411
Member
Now this is getting ridiculous, if its an airbus A320 the weather can't bring her down. These are built to handle typhoon type of weather.
Its either a mechanical failure or it was shoot down by someone, the latter is very unlikely since no one in the region have the necessary equipment.
Its either a mechanical failure or it was shoot down by someone, the latter is very unlikely since no one in the region have the necessary equipment.
I don't think plane maintenance and precautionary groundings due to weather are much left up to chance. Increased tragedy usually brings increased safety in industries where human error can cause deaths.
For example, I used to work in the Wind Turbine industry. Over a 10 year internal study (between 1998 and 2008) we showed that workplace safety increased dramatic immediately after an accident in which someone died. This was across Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. It had nothing to do with the "Gamblers Fallacy" and more to do with increased concentration on safety due to the recent tragedy.
Opus Angelorum
Member
It's an MD-83.
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