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[Broken Hope]

Good. Hopefully the lack of a proper account system is biting 'em on the ass.

I might be giving consumers too much credit there though.

Don't say that, you'll have the defenders saying that an account system that is hardware locked and requires phoning customer support to transfer to another piece of hardware is comparable to a system that allows you to log into your account on any other compatible hardware and access your digital content.

It still honestly baffles me that anyone can defend Nintendo handling digital content differently from pretty much everyone else.

 

[Burai]

Backwards compatibility is utterly pointless now? Really? That's what you think as a consumer?

That's what I think when the console you're BCing is so small that it can stay on your shelf without taking up valuable space. That's what I think when the Wii market completely cratered showing that consumer desire to continue playing those games has all but passed.

When it means spending almost PS4 money but getting a PS3 in return then, yeah, cut it.

You're using specs as classification for tech. Efficiency is important. Just chasing the raw figures number is getting ridiculous. Look at all the Xbox One VS PS4 stuff that's going on.

Efficiency is also important for the company. Nintendo go with what Gunpei Yokoi & Nintendo called the "lateral thinking with withered technology" strategy. Going with older tech and using it in new, cost effective, ways. It's what they did with the GameBoy. If Nintendo went the way MS and Sony have been doing, they'd be bankrupt and dead now. Look at all the losses of the PS3 and Xbox 360. That level of loss-leading damaged the industry, and it's continuing, albeit to a lesser extent thanks to off-the-shelf parts in the PS4 and Xbox One.

Going this route also helps with the overly inflating budgets of game development these days. The budgets are getting higher and higher with less returns. Look how many developers folded last gen, and how many are commenting on increasing budgets this gen. We're bound to have loads more closures, mark my words.
Wii and Wii U are sort of counter to that, but developers ignore it because, at least in the west, they're following the "more power philosophy". To me, it seems like Nintendo are trying to stave off and redirect a coming crash in the industry.

But I digress, that's just how I see it.



http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2014/140730_2e.pdf

And when consumers don't care about the product it spawns, efficiency doesn't really count for anything.

 

[JoeM86]

Don't say that, you'll have the defenders saying that an account system that is hardware locked and requires phoning customer support to transfer to another piece of hardware is comparable to a system that allows you to log into your account on any other compatible hardware and access your digital content.

It still honestly baffles me that anyone can defend Nintendo handling digital content differently from pretty much everyone else.

To be fair, you don't need to phone customer support to transfer anymore.

 

[Oswen]

A new 3DS revision wont do much, portable gaming is forever changed by smartphones and apps, people don't want to spend money anymore for games when they can have them for free since production values and quality doesn't matter to the average consumer, Angry Birds is as much of a game as Pokemon for the average mother/kid/etc.

Nintendo needs to make way for its successor which will be interesting to see, being the first handheld engineered to survive in a post-smartphone era.
If it turns out to be just a "4DS" then they will shoot themselves in the foot.

 

[Broken Hope]

To be fair, you don't need to phone customer support to transfer anymore.

If you're talking about the newly added system transfer, that requires you to be in possession of both Wii U's and both have to be functioning. Unless there's a new development where I could just buy a new Wii U and sign in to it using my Nintendo ID have have full access to my account, like I can on my Phone, Playstation devices and Steam/Origin.

 

[Pie and Beans]

To be fair, you don't need to phone customer support to transfer anymore.

You just need your two functioning WiiU's sitting next to each other because thats the situation most of the market wants from the ease of account based downloads. Come on dude.

My hesitance to buy anything on the eShop is unlike any other service I use in the world today. There is no point to Virtual Console purchases since I doubt Wii/Wii U/3DS purchases get tracked to the next Nintendo systems, so anyone can wait out this gen until they get their act together. Throw in region locking on top and its just astonishing how far behind they are.

 

[RPGamer92]

3DS models really need a price drop in the west.

 

[Kris Pistofferson]

If you're talking about the newly added system transfer, that requires you to be in possession of both Wii U's and both have to be functioning. Unless there's a new development where I could just buy a new Wii U and sign in to it using my Nintendo ID have have full access to my account, like I can on my Phone, Playstation devices and Steam/Origin.

It's not out yet but it's apparently coming:

On Wii U, we launched Nintendo Network IDs, which are abbreviated as NNIDs. This is the first step of our efforts to transform customer relationship management from device-based to account-based, namely, consumer-based, through which we aim to establish long-term relationships with individual consumers, unaffected by the lifespans of our systems. Our future platform will connect with our consumers based on accounts, not devices.

 

[Broken Hope]

It's not out yet but it's apparently coming:

Still massively behind, they will be a good 10+ years behind Microsoft/Sony/Google/Amazon when it comes to accounts when they finally release a new console.

 

[Mpl90]

It's not out yet but it's apparently coming:

Everyone should read both that part of the January's Investor Briefing and Q5 here: http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/140130qa/02.html, in order to get a reasonable impression of what's coming.

Basically the "iOS-ification" (as I call it) of Nintendo hardwares, which is their main guideline for future systems.

 

[Otakumegane]

So what's the reason for some of their more non gaming related losses, and how much are they of the whole picture?

 

[phanphare]

It's not out yet but it's apparently coming:

yeah they were extremely slow in adapting but it's pretty obvious that a proper account system is on the way. I think once their new handheld is launched people will be very surprised with how Nintendo handles NNID's. although the one NNID per handheld and one per console will still be in full effect so I'm sure that'll ruffle some feathers, but I can't realistically expect anything else.

 

[Mpl90]

So what's the reason for some of their more non gaming related losses, and how much are they of the whole picture?

Do we have a detailed look at the losses, indeed?

 

[metalslimer]

As much as I like my 3ds games 400x240 in 2014 is horrendous. The 3ds has collapsed so either they have an amazing revision coming to rebound the numbers or 4DS will be at the end of 2015.

They are going to miss the 3ds forecast terribly. The only positive this year will be mario kart and smash numbers.

 

[cvxfreak]

A disproportionate amount of the 3DS drop YoY is definitely from Japan. Nintendo needs to get those sales back up, but the free game promotions just aren't cutting it.

I think it might have a holiday here on par with last year, but only due to Yokai Watch 2 and MH4G/Pokemon releasing closer to the holidays than their counterparts did last year, plus whatever else Nintendo decides to do with hardware sales (2DS, pricedrop, new colors, 3DS Lite?)

 

[Kris Pistofferson]

Still massively behind, they will be a good 10+ years behind Microsoft/Sony/Google/Amazon when it comes to accounts when they finally release a new console.

I read that as coming to their current consoles and not just future ones. They're obviously aware of this need and presumably working on it. There's nothing preventing the Wii U from getting such a feature since it's purely a software feature.

 

[metalslimer]

I think the more worrying thing for the 3ds is 2015 and 2016 if they dont have the software to launch a new handheld. They probably won't have a new Pokemon or monster hunter and even with that their would be diminishing returns on the hardware boost they got. A lot of Nintendo's teams are on wii u and the look at 3ds after this year seems pretty bad 1st party wise.

Its amazing that almost every single digital company on the planet got the whole account thing right on their very first try with some being almost a decade ago and yet nintendo is still trying to figure it out.

 

[Shiggy]

I read that as coming to their current consoles and not just future ones. They're obviously aware of this need and presumably working on it. There's nothing preventing the Wii U from getting such a feature since it's purely a software feature.

There's no indication that this is coming to either 3DS or Wii U anytime soon, sadly. They could've made it possible with the introduction of NNIDs.

 

[Pie and Beans]

I read that as coming to their current consoles and not just future ones. They're obviously aware of this need and presumably working on it. There's nothing preventing the Wii U from getting such a feature since it's purely a software feature.

Statement only pledges full account level stuff for "future platforms".

 

[Meffer]

We know for damn sure sales for both will increase this fall to the holidays. There's stuff for everyone later this year.

 

[Vyse The Legend]

A disproportionate amount of the 3DS drop YoY is definitely from Japan. Nintendo needs to get those sales back up, but the free game promotions just aren't cutting it.

I think it might have a holiday here on par with last year, but only due to Yokai Watch 2 and MH4G/Pokemon releasing closer to the holidays than their counterparts did last year, plus whatever else Nintendo decides to do with hardware sales (2DS, pricedrop, new colors, 3DS Lite?)

MH4U will help, but Japan hasn't had new hardware in almost two years. They didn't get the 2DS, and I think a remodel (3DSi) with a price drop could definitely help. It helped the Vita, which has seen a sustained increase in sales since the Slim.

 

[boiled goose]

Statement only pledges full account level stuff for "future platforms".

And that is why i can't fully invest in 3ds or wiiu.
The future is too uncertain...

 

[jcm]

A couple of updates to things I've been tracking:

The Powerhouse™ 3DS vs NDS at the same point in their lifespan:

This quarter
TTM after 14 quarters on sale:

3DS Hardware:  11.66
NDS Hardware:  30.31

3DS Software:  65.45 *
NDS Software: 185.62 **


Last Quarter
TTM after 13 quarters on sale:

3DS Hardware:  12.24
NDS Hardware:  29.18

3DS Software:  67.89 *
NDS Software: 176.64 **

* Software sales units and the number of new titles for Nintendo 3DS 
are those of Nintendo 3DS card software (packaged and downloadable versions).
** This does not include DSiWare

And Nintendo's cash + short term position:

June 2008 1,252,321
June 2009 1,220,148
June 2010 1,252,321
June 2011 1,045,661
June 2012   866,794
June 2013   867,130
June 2014   765,332

And the Yamauchi buyback:

Buyback price:      12,025 JPY  
Yesterday's price:  12,405 JPY

 

[metalslimer]

We know for damn sure sales for both will increase this fall to the holidays. There's stuff for everyone later this year.

Yes I do expect a systems to sell more during the holidays as well.

 

[Meffer]

MH4U will help, but Japan hasn't had new hardware in almost two years. They didn't get the 2DS, and I think a remodel (3DSi) with a price drop could definitely help. It helped the Vita, which has seen a sustained increase in sales since the Slim.

It would be nice for Japan to get the 2DS. It be a nice cheap option for them. That or have another remodel soon. Though I wonder what else can they do for a remodel?

 

[Vyse The Legend]

It would be nice for Japan to get the 2DS. It be a nice cheap option for them. That or have another remodel soon. Though I wonder what else can they do for a remodel?

Thinner, bigger battery, NFC for the Miibos, and cosmetic changes for comfort/style.

NFC, specifically, makes me think a new 3ds model is inevitable. The Miibo push is going to be super strong, and right now, they plan to release an accessory to bring it to the old models, which is a hanky solution for a portable.

 

[Vashetti]

3DS has collapsed, wow.

"4DS" is going to be announced next year at least.

 

[Fourth Storm]

You're using specs as classification for tech. Efficiency is important. Just chasing the raw figures number is getting ridiculous. Look at all the Xbox One VS PS4 stuff that's going on.

Efficiency is also important for the company. Nintendo go with what Gunpei Yokoi & Nintendo called the "lateral thinking with withered technology" strategy. Going with older tech and using it in new, cost effective, ways. It's what they did with the GameBoy. If Nintendo went the way MS and Sony have been doing, they'd be bankrupt and dead now. Look at all the losses of the PS3 and Xbox 360. That level of loss-leading damaged the industry, and it's continuing, albeit to a lesser extent thanks to off-the-shelf parts in the PS4 and Xbox One.

Going this route also helps with the overly inflating budgets of game development these days. The budgets are getting higher and higher with less returns. Look how many developers folded last gen, and how many are commenting on increasing budgets this gen. We're bound to have loads more closures, mark my words.
Wii and Wii U are sort of counter to that, but developers ignore it because, at least in the west, they're following the "more power philosophy". To me, it seems like Nintendo are trying to stave off and redirect a coming crash in the industry.

But I digress, that's just how I see it.



http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2014/140730_2e.pdf

The way I see it is that Wii U was almost literally a day late and a dollar short when it came to hardware. Like, if it had released in 2011 and with just a bit more CPU oompth so that the launch multiplats didn't run noticeably worse, we'd be having a different conversation. Other than that, the hardware is nice. And BC is great for those who skipped on Wii for lack of HD output and whatnot.

 

[Opiate]

Digital sales down from ¥5.7 billion a year ago to ¥5.0 billion in the last quarter, a decline of 12%. Not the right direction compared to just about every other major company with a digital segment.

This is the real alarming statistic here.

Let's repeat this, for emphasis: Nintendo's digital sales are going down. In this day and age. I'm not sure consumers can slam Nintendo over the head with the message "your online infrastructure stinks" any harder.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Where are people plotting the 3DS end point? 60 million with a price-drop and final revision?

I caught a lot of shit for saying it'd never reach the GBA even, but here we are. Just wasn't created with any modicum of future proofing against a world where 720p minimum portable screens are falling out of the sky.

This is the real alarming statistic here.

Let's repeat this, for emphasis: Nintendo's digital sales are going down. In this day and age. I'm not sure consumers can slam Nintendo over the head with the message "your online infrastructure stinks" any harder.

Its not too surprising to me. Last year they had a much fatter 3DS library to push towards consumers and some stuff even went the "sold out in stores, digital only!" route. This year is pretty bare release calendar wise (particularly 3DS as the shift had to be made to WiiU) and the worst is just as you say: people are getting wary of dumping money into a service that still doesnt offer cross-play/buy initiatives.

 

[TheSlySoul]

So according to the trends, Oct-Dec is going to be profitable for Nintendo. They better make Smash a fantastic game then.

 

[Meffer]

Thinner, bigger battery, NFC for the Miibos, and cosmetic changes for comfort/style.

NFC, specifically, makes me think a new 3ds model is inevitable. The Miibo push is going to be super strong, and right now, they plan to release an accessory to bring it to the old models, which is a hanky solution for a portable.

I wouldn't mind that at all. 3DS Deluxe. Though Nintendo did say that they are working on a NFC add-on for the 3DS already, something like what Skylanders did. A NFC scanner in the 3DS itself would be a great boon.

 

[metalslimer]

Where are people plotting the 3DS end point? 60 million with a price-drop and final revision?

I caught a lot of shit for saying it'd never reach the GBA even, but here we are. Just wasn't created with any modicum of future proofing against a world where 720p minimum portable screens are falling out of the sky.



Its not too surprising to me. Last year they had a much fatter 3DS library to push towards consumers and some stuff even went the "sold out in stores, digital only!" route. This year is pretty bare release calendar wise (particularly 3DS as the shift had to be made to WiiU) and the worst is just as you say: people are getting wary of dumping money into a service that still doesnt offer cross-play/buy initiatives.

I actually think it will be hard to get to 60 million. Next years software schedule will be pretty bad relatively and short of having every model at 99 it seems like the collapse will continue

 

[Kris Pistofferson]

Statement only pledges full account level stuff for "future platforms".

I'm not sure. The slides and text both suggest that current accounts will transfer onto future platforms. Just like my current Steam account will transfer onto my future computer.

I think there will always be a limit to how many systems can be logged into the same account concurrently and it's not something limited to Nintendo. iTunes (edit: iBooks as well) similarly needs device revocation for transfers between computers and each Apple ID is limited to 10 combined devices including tablets, phones, and computers. I also think Sony PSNs are similarly limited though I don't know the activation numbers.

Out of all these publishers only Valve gets it right, in my opinion. But that's also because Steam is so dependent on online connectivity.

 

[outunderthestars]

To be fair, you don't need to phone customer support to transfer anymore.

Only if you have both systems in front of you.

 

[Meffer]

I actually think it will be hard to get to 60 million. Next years software schedule will be pretty bad relatively and short of having every model at 99 it seems like the collapse will continue

It's hard to say right now. We'll have to see what happens. In my opinion, Nintendo should focus more on localizing games over to other countries. Or create a system to make it easier to do just that. There are many games in Japan that are quite good and would do well outside in other places of the world.

 

[Shiggy]

I'm not sure. The slides and text both suggest that current accounts will transfer onto future platforms. Just like my current Steam account will transfer onto my future computer.

I think there will always be a limit to how many systems can be logged into the same account concurrently and it's not something limited to Nintendo. iTunes similarly needs device revocation for transfers between computers and each Apple ID is limited to 10 combined devices including tablets, phones, and computers. I also think Sony PSNs are similarly limited though I don't know the activation numbers.

Out of all these publishers only Valve gets it right, in my opinion. But that's also because Steam is so dependent on online connectivity.

Yeah, but nobody needs to call Sony or Apple to log in on a new device.

 

[Kandinsky]

I love Nintendo, I really do, but they deserve those numbers. Fire both Iwata and Reggie please.

 

[geordiemp]

I love Nintendo, I really do, but they deserve those numbers. Fire both Iwata and Reggie please.

I know I have read that comment before = Pachter returns

 

[metalslimer]

It's hard to say right now. We'll have to see what happens. In my opinion, Nintendo should focus more on localizing games over to other countries. Or create a system to make it easier to do just that. There are many games in Japan that are quite good and would do well outside in other places of the world.

Let's be realistic. The vast majority of those unlocalized games wouldn't do anything substantial for hardware sales. Nintendo's games have been selling the system in the west and will continue to do so.

 

[Mpl90]

I actually think it will be hard to get to 60 million. Next years software schedule will be pretty bad relatively and short of having every model at 99 it seems like the collapse will continue

We need to see if there's going to be a new revision, the DSi of the situation. I've explained pages ago why I think it's a good possibility this year, but we don't know yet of course.

 

[outunderthestars]

I love Nintendo, I really do, but they deserve those numbers. Fire both Iwata and Reggie please.

It is shocking that a company can do this poorly, yet somehow retain their entire upper management.

 

[JoeM86]

It is shocking that a company can do this poorly, yet somehow retain their entire upper management.

Yeah. If this was in the west, the CEO would have fired 1000 people and given himself a bonus.

 

[phanphare]

I think the more worrying thing for the 3ds is 2015 and 2016 if they dont have the software to launch a new handheld. They probably won't have a new Pokemon or monster hunter and even with that their would be diminishing returns on the hardware boost they got. A lot of Nintendo's teams are on wii u and the look at 3ds after this year seems pretty bad 1st party wise.

Its amazing that almost every single digital company on the planet got the whole account thing right on their very first try with some being almost a decade ago and yet nintendo is still trying to figure it out.

their new handheld will almost certainly have the Wii U's full Virtual Console available at launch and probably a ton of the eShop games as well. that's why their new platforms are being made to absorb the Wii U's architecture.

 

[SparkTR]

It is shocking that a company can do this poorly, yet somehow retain their entire upper management.

The success of the Wii has allowed them a lot of good will.

 

[MariosGirlfriend33]

To be fair, you don't need to phone customer support to transfer anymore.

Because most folks have two Wii U's lying around...

 

[Fourth Storm]

I actually think it will be hard to get to 60 million. Next years software schedule will be pretty bad relatively and short of having every model at 99 it seems like the collapse will continue

We know basically nothing about next year's software schedule (a hint at Zelda), but it does seem most of their teams are tied up on Wii U games. The big franchises have all been released.

I see the collapse continuing, especially as another revision seems unlikely at this point, and small tablets continue to sell to kids.

 

[Tobor]

Yeah. If this was in the west, the CEO would have fired 1000 people and given himself a bonus.

No, Iwata's replacement would fire the 1000 people.

See Microsoft.

 

[Raist]

Software       Ap-Jn    Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr      FY      LTD

FY 2012/13       -        -      11.69    1.73      13.42    13.42   

FY 2013/14     1.03     5.27      9.66    2.9       18.86    32.28

FY 2014/15     4.39       -        -       -         4.39    36.67

Of which 2.82M are MK8. Ridiculous.

 

[Saint Gregory]

You just need your two functioning WiiU's sitting next to each other because thats the situation most of the market wants from the ease of account based downloads. Come on dude.

My hesitance to buy anything on the eShop is unlike any other service I use in the world today. There is no point to Virtual Console purchases since I doubt Wii/Wii U/3DS purchases get tracked to the next Nintendo systems, so anyone can wait out this gen until they get their act together. Throw in region locking on top and its just astonishing how far behind they are.

Don't say that, you'll have the defenders saying that an account system that is hardware locked and requires phoning customer support to transfer to another piece of hardware is comparable to a system that allows you to log into your account on any other compatible hardware and access your digital content.

It still honestly baffles me that anyone can defend Nintendo handling digital content differently from pretty much everyone else.

And yet ironically Nintendo is the only one of the big three this gen that allowed content from their previous generation systems to be played on their next generation system.

While I'd love for them to get their shit together and get a real account system going when presented with the option of either being able to play my content on multiple same generation systems or to carry that content with me to the next gen it's an easy decision which one I'd prefer.