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Nintendo FY14 Q1: 0.82M 3DS, 0.51M Wii U, MK8 2.82M shipped, 10 billion yen loss

Tobor

Member
The marketing thing always feels like such a lazy excuse to me. You can't magically throw advertising dollars at anything and make it appealing. You can't make people want something no matter how much you spend on commercials or what you call it. Granted those things are important but a bigger part of marketing is creating a product that had wide appeal in the first place. This is where the Wii u failed.

Exactly. Look at the Surface. MS spent an insane amount of money marketing that thing, and what did it get them? An unappealing product and a huge bill from marketing.
 

AniHawk

Member
Here's why I strongly recommend people not reach this conclusion: because it absolves the company of all blame.

Consider the PS3 as a similar example which struggled mightily in its own way. Or the PSVita, I don't care. Many Sony fans at the time insisted the problem was the marketing in a very similar way.

And here's why that explanation appeals to fans of the consoles in question: because the problem is no longer the console. It's an implicit way of saying "the problem isn't the console; the console is clearly awesome. The problem is that people just don't understand how awesome the console is."

It's a way to avoid admitting that the console has any inherent faults.

seeing lots of parallels between the vita's fanbase and the wii u's to be honest. it's a little weird to me how the wii u gets so much defense on having an awesome library when it lacks in comparison to its predecessor by a decent clip. the same is true of the vita, and i never had a psp. all you have to do though is take a look through the psn store and the differences become clear.

i guess the less successful a product is, the more you have to convince yourself and others that you made the right choice.
 

random25

Member
Would third party-support it? Wouldn't they burn their hardcore fan-base by abandoning the WiiU so early? How long would something like that take to get in the market and by the time it got its games to compete wouldn't it be already to late? Can Nintendo even handle games that are produced for a more powerful hardware? They weren't part of the HD gen and they are still transitioning, they are taking ages to release their games on WiiU.

Everybody is taking their time on HD development. Even the supposedly "pros" in HD have been absent for longer. Transitioning to HD has been a baffling argument to Nintendo when everybody else is just on the same boat.
 

Shiggy

Member
Marketing is part of why the Wii U is a bomb. But the main reason is that both the platform itself with its "tablet wannabe" device and the system's software are unappealing to most consumers. They offer very little new and more seem to be expansions of what they played in the last generation on Nintendo consoles. The huge decline in Nintendo software sales should make this apparent.

And I'm talking more about MK8, NSMBU, Wii Fit U, DKC:TF here and not games such as Wonderful 101 which are simply unappealing due to their visual style and gameplay. Such titles would've bombed on all platforms.
 

AniHawk

Member
The marketing thing always feels like such a lazy excuse to me. You can't magically throw advertising dollars at anything and make it appealing. You can't make people want something no matter how much you spend on commercials or what you call it. Granted those things are important but a bigger part of marketing is creating a product that had wide appeal in the first place. This is where the Wii u failed.

more than marketing they needed good concepting. like what is the concept of the wii u? it was announced as a paradox. why do that to yourselves? they didn't know so no one ever knew. no one still knows. it's the same problem with the 3ds. stereoscopic 3d is an awesome trick, but how is it noticeably improving my games again? was there any one piece of software that did this - ever?
 
You really think the Wii U wouldn't be doing better if it hadn't had the Wii name confusion and they had gone all out with marketing?

Better? Perhaps. But they still probably would not be doing all that well.

Marketing and brand confusion are only part of the overall problem. A lack of compelling new software (including new IP) and a lack of third-party support is a much bigger issue for Nintendo right now. And it's something they need to fix if they hope to bring in new customers for whatever console they release in the future to replace the WiiU.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
The Wii U being less powerful is part of Nintendo's almost life long strategy.

That strategy is now no longer fit for a world where people buy cutting edge smartphones and tablets every year. When a 'home console' is not an object that inspires "wow, new tech thats better than the old tech by a fair margain!" responses, it meets the response the WiiU has.

Couple that with disastrous third party support, a price that has the non-started GamePad as an albatross round its neck, and a company that cant put out software to support two platforms well concurrently, and welcome to current loss-making Nintendo.

Next console has to be a hybrid, it has to be HD in both handheld and home (720p min for handheld), Nintendo has to dramatically beef up its 'games as a service' unit so Virtual Console and the like arent a joke, Tomadachi Life/Animal Crossing should transition to OS level, and from there you access old consoles and the added pomp and flair that adds to digital downloads, and software prices overall need to take a slight dip.

Ultimately, the aim should be to create 'Nintendo Life' so that when the seemingly inevitable hardware platform blur reaches terminal velocity, Nintendo have a platform to push onto other devices if/when they can no longer compete in any way with more aggressive hardware makers.

They have the next 5-6 years to do this, and hopefully they're instigating it essentially right now.
 

JoeM86

Member
It's a risk that's decimated almost ALL of their profits from the Wii.

If by decimated you mean remove by a tenth, then yeah, otherwise lol no. Absolutely not

[Know what else hurt the Wii U? The price, the lack of an actual account system which has led people like myself to not invest in the e-shop, the terrible design of the system that made it difficult to differentiate from it's predecessor.

The lack of third party support which as has been explained is due to the lower turn out for the Wii U and the inability to port games to the system that will be exclusive to new gen hardware.

The amount of mistakes are vast and incompetence significant.

The price, possibly...but it was sold at a loss so it couldn't be much smaller. Account system? No. Sorry. Most people aren't actually aware of the issues people here have with it. It is not that much of an issue for the general populace.

Third party support, yes
 
The marketing thing always feels like such a lazy excuse to me. You can't magically throw advertising dollars at anything and make it appealing. You can't make people want something no matter how much you spend on commercials or what you call it. Granted those things are important but a bigger part of marketing is creating a product that had wide appeal in the first place. This is where the Wii u failed.

I feel like word-of-mouth is the most effective marketing.

Back in the Wii days, buzz about the console spread like wildfire and kept Wii sales sky-high even if the actual advertising done by NOA wasn't all that great.

We've seen some actual word-of-mouth advertising for Mario Kart 8---hence the 2.82 million shipped and massive attach rate---but the missing element here is that the word-of-mouth seems to be mostly among those Nintendo fans already invested in the Wii U ecosystem.

Nintendo's strategy has been to use the exact same IPs that received massive word-of-mouth advertising back in the day (like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii) and attempt to replicate that success by releasing iterative sequels.

But it's 2014, not 2007. The fads have burned out among the casual gamer audience.
 

Frolow

Banned
Define on par. A similar architecture possibly for the sake of ports? There are some benefits to this, but I don't see as many honestly. From what I've been seeing with their decisions, it's been attempts to carve in their own market instead of trying to get the same pie as others.

I think their design philosophy with consoles is flawed. I'm perfectly fine with them being unique and trying innovative ideas. However, alienating third parties by shipping underpowered hardware can't do in this day and age. As unfortunate as it is, a console needs support from AAA publishers like Ubisoft, Activision, and EA if it wants to even attempt at catering to the mass market. The Wii U attempted to cater to both markets but failed at both. The casual market simply vanished in the advent of mobile, but that's another discussion. The Third Parties left because nobody bought the initial software they put out Why? Because the people buying Wii Us around launch, and still to this day, aren't the core market. They're either Nintendo fans, who are mostly interested in Nintendo software, and people who already own another console that can already play the better versions of those third party titles.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Everybody is taking their time on HD development. Even the supposedly "pros" in HD have been absent for longer. Transitioning to HD has been a baffling argument to Nintendo when everybody else is just on the same boat.

To be honest...last year, I was in the camp of Nintendo suffering way too much for the transition to HD, but this year events made me revalue that a little. Or better, they suffered way too much, it's undeniable, but almost the entire industry is suffering this. Look at Sony's Holiday lineup: a game which releases also on PS3 and a game that was supposed to come out at launch. LAUNCH. Ubisoft is the one which seemed to be ready enough.
 

z0m3le

Banned
You know my thoughts on the form-factor z0m, but I still find it hilarious that our opinions can be so exactly opposite. From all reports of people who have tried the thing, the 2DS is a very comfortable and well-built device. The sea green version is also quite pretty. I want one.

If anything, I'd like a revision that keeps the 3D and XL screen size, but puts them in a 2DS slate design for the enhanced ergonomics.

It's not a bad piece of hardware, it is just oddly placed in the family, has a poor choice of screen dividing and a name that does it MO favors at all. Nintendo's problem outside of large game droughts, was that 3DS was ill conceived from the start, tying a pun into a name boxed them in, had they of called it Super DS or DS Advanced would of been less confusing, more marketable and allowed the 2DS to have a chance by not further confusing their market, I mean what is a 2DS? The Wii U largely follows this same diagram, however I think their next cycle will not bother with these names, I wouldn't mind a portrait portable for their next device, but I do hope they keep the clamshell as a revision, especially if it has some nice folding screen.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Account system? No. Sorry. Most people aren't actually aware of the issues people here have with it. It is not that much of an issue for the general populace.

When your digital growth is actually down in the year 201X, everything you are doing wrong is an issue.
 
Account system? No. Sorry. Most people aren't actually aware of the issues people here have with it. It is not that much of an issue for the general populace.

And you know this how? Have you done an in-depth survey of gamers who have bought the WiiU?

Because the way I see it, you can bet your ass that any gamer who is going to shell out money for a WiiU is the type of gamer who knows what an account system is because they either own a PlayStation or Xbox, or they know somebody who does.
 
I feel like word-of-mouth is the most effective marketing.

Back in the Wii days, buzz about the console spread like wildfire and kept Wii sales sky-high even if the actual advertising done by NOA wasn't all that great.

We've seen some actual word-of-mouth advertising for Mario Kart 8---hence the 2.82 million shipped and massive attach rate---but the missing element here is that the word-of-mouth seems to be mostly among those Nintendo fans already invested in the Wii U ecosystem.

Nintendo's strategy has been to use the exact same IPs that received massive word-of-mouth advertising back in the day (like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii) and attempt to replicate that success by releasing iterative sequels.
.
But it's 2014, not 2007. The fads have burned out among the casual gamer audience.

Nintendo of America's marketing for the Wii was great though.


It's got a great shot at Super Circuit, and a puncher's chance at Double Dash depending on how things go.

It'll pass both when the inevitable pack in bundle comes.
When your digital growth is actually down in the year 201X, everything you are doing wrong is an issue.

I still can't even believe this. This would be hard enough to believe for a company like Sony or MS who have had extensive digital businesses for years, but Nintendo who literally started selling full retail games digitally 2 years ago is astounding.
 

brett2

Member
These threads are going to keep coming every quarterly earnings release for the next few years. The 3DS is falling off fast and the Wii U has no chance of strong sales at this point. Nintendo is going to continue to bleed cash until they introduce a new platform or revenue stream. Even though we know next to nothing about it, I really hope they don't pin all their hopes next year on the quality of life platform. It's going to be a long turnaround process and the toughest fight in Nintendo's history.
 

Freeman

Banned
seeing lots of parallels between the vita's fanbase and the wii u's to be honest. it's a little weird to me how the wii u gets so much defense on having an awesome library when it lacks in comparison to its predecessor by a decent clip. the same is true of the vita, and i never had a psp. all you have to do though is take a look through the psn store and the differences become clear.

i guess the less successful a product is, the more you have to convince yourself and others that you made the right choice.

Vita gets criticized all the time, I think most people can clearly see how poorly Sony handled it and all the mistakes that were made and Sony's insistence in not fixing them.

When it comes to Nintendo its always different, if you talk about Sony getting out of the portable market everyone thinks its a reasonable thing to think, you suggest Nintendo moving out of the console market and you are insane. One year ago most people would laugh at you if you pointed out how poorly the WiiU would do.
 

Jomjom

Banned
You really think the Wii U wouldn't be doing better if it hadn't had the Wii name confusion and they had gone all out with marketing?

In what way does marketing and lack of name confusion get me more games on the console? Those things don't magically allow third parties to port their games in development to the console.

Yes the 1st party games are there and like every single generation, Nintendo will have the hardcore Nintendo fans who buy Nintendo games regardless of the console that's playing it. The issue is where are the third party games that attract the rest of the gaming market, which is much larger than just the subsection that loves Nintendo games?
 
Nintendo of America's marketing for the Wii was great though.

They had some brilliant moments....like the "Wii Would Like To Play" ad campaign at launch, and some other not-so-successful parts.

But it didn't matter...the console was flying off shelves from all of that word-of-mouth buzz.
 
Wiiu's forecast ship has sailed. And it wasn't even an optimistic one, yikes.

How do you figure? For Wii U, the yoy rate of increase is already trending more than well enough to put them on track to meet projections.

Wii U 2014 Forecast said:
HW

Q1 2014: 0.51m
Q1 2013: 0.16m
(318%)

FY 2014: 3.60m (projected)
FY 2013: 2.72m (actual)
(132%)

SW

Q1 2014: 4.39m
Q1 2013: 1.03m
(426%)

FY 2014: 20.00m (projected)
FY 2013: 18.86m (actual)
(106%)

It's the 3DS forecast that isn't looking so good.

3DS 2014 Forecast said:
HW

Q1 2014: 0.86m
Q1 2013: 1.40m
(61%)

FY 2014: 12.00m (projected)
FY 2013: 12.24m (actual)
(98%)

SW

Q1 2014: 8.57m
Q1 2013: 11.01m
(78%)

FY 2014: 67.00m (projected)
FY 2013: 67.89m (actual)
(99%)

Still the worst gen they'll probably ever have.
 

Frolow

Banned
These threads are going to keep coming every quarterly earnings release for the next few years. The 3DS is falling off fast and the Wii U has no chance of strong sales at this point. Nintendo is going to continue to bleed cash until they introduce a new platform or revenue stream. Even though we know next to nothing about it, I really hope they don't pin all their hopes next year on the quality of life platform. It's going to be a long turnaround process and the toughest fight in Nintendo's history.

Eh, they've pulled out of similar situations before. If a company like Sony can continue to float on, even with major loses every quarter, Nintendo can certainly get through a bad slump.
 

xaszatm

Banned
I am not saying that better marketing and a better name would not have meant somewhat better sales, but do you truly believe that it would have offset the mobile onslaught (especially in Japan where it now dominates), PS4/XB1 push, lack of 3rd party support, lack of compelling new IPs etc?

Would that alone made enough of a difference?

Honest question, not being snarky.

Here's why I strongly recommend people not reach this conclusion: because it absolves the company of all blame.

Consider the PS3 as a similar example which struggled mightily in its own way. Or the PSVita, I don't care. Many Sony fans at the time insisted the problem was the marketing in a very similar way.

And here's why that explanation appeals to fans of the consoles in question: because the problem is no longer the console. It's an implicit way of saying "the problem isn't the console; the console is clearly awesome. The problem is that people just don't understand how awesome the console is."

It's a way to avoid admitting that the console has any inherent faults.

While I don't think an advertisement campaign would suddenly start selling Wii numbers, I do think that a strong campaign would definitely help. The average person has had problems understanding what a Wii U is with most people thinking that it is an add-on to the Wii rather than a console in its own right. The lack of understanding is one of the key reasons why this console isn't selling. It most definitely not the only reason, but it is still important.
 

Freeman

Banned
Everybody is taking their time on HD development. Even the supposedly "pros" in HD have been absent for longer. Transitioning to HD has been a baffling argument to Nintendo when everybody else is just on the same boat.
I don't know what you are talking about, there was an entire generation of 8 years of games being developed for HD consoles that Nintendo wasn't a part of.

Still the worst gen they'll probably ever have.
Until there is a successor that will have to face an even harder challenge.
 
Eh, they've pulled out of similar situations before. If a company like Sony can continue to float on, even with major loses every quarter, Nintendo can certainly get through a bad slump.

When in Nintendo's history have they have a console sector that was floundering and a handheld sector on a hard downturn? No, this is completely unprecedented from them which is why they plan on doing things like QoL to get a foothold into other markets and partnering with others to use their IPs.

While I don't think an advertisement campaign would suddenly start selling Wii numbers, I do think that a strong campaign would definitely help. The average person has had problems understanding what a Wii U is with most people thinking that it is an add-on to the Wii rather than a console in its own right. The lack of understanding is one of the key reasons why this console isn't selling. It most definitely not the only reason, but it is still important.

If people see Mario Kart 8 and don't want it for a Wii add on, why would they want to buy a brand new console for it? This is where the whole advertising solution breaks down for me. If the games were enticing enough to get people into the stores they would inevitably figure out Wii U is a new console.
 

Shiggy

Member
Historically both smash and mk have legs that very few other IPs share. You do realize they won't be pulling MK8 off the shelf between now and next year right? In fact, the bundle that has continued to sell out everywhere, will likely be one of the major ways people buy the console from here on out.

I'd also like to mention that momentum from this year and early next year will feed 2015 better early in the year, unlike mk8 dropping in a wasteland; splatoon, Mario maker, zelda, starfox should be able to continue to move units week after week rather than missing months without releases doing damage to bigger games. Who knows the impact of Mario maker btw, with minecraft being this huge hit, it's not impossible that Mario maker becomes a system seller. (not saying it will be more prolific than smash or mk, but it can do its part.

MK8 will surely have some legs, But historically, NSMB games also had huge legs. That didn't help the Wii U either. I'm not sure where the MK8 bundle is selling out though, checked all European Amazon websites and it's available immediately.

Mario Maker should be interesting. Are people really interested in even more Mario 2D action? Will they like to create their own levels, which cannot even be shared online? Nintendo has been burned twice with user created content: once with Wario Ware DIY and another time with Jam with the Band - both games lacked sales and thus user created content.

Splatoon is a big wild card, which will be a big failure unless it receives some marketing. Games such as Zelda, Xenoblade, or even Starfox are most likely going to sell to the audience that already own the Wii U, if Mario Kart 8 is any indication.
 

z0m3le

Banned
Can we just please with this fiction that if Nintendo releases a console that has power equal to or near equal to the competitors, that they lose their individuality? I'm so sick and tired of listening to this nonsensical BS. Upping their hardware specs so that they can finally have the same third party support is not mutually exclusive to Nintendo finding something that differentiates themselves. They can still try to find some kind of gimmick or accessory that makes them stand out. Not to mention what has and always will make Nintendo stand out is their 1st party games.

Yes the Wii made a boatload of money with a strategy that didn't require them to have similar hardware specs to the competitors, but so did the NES and SNES, which did have similar specs to its competitors (enough to get multiplatform games).

If this was even a valid reason why Wii U is missing third party support, they would of received last Gen ports which have been done in 6 months by as few as 4 people, costing an average of 200k, needing less than 10k sales to recoup costs. Specs aren't why third parties don't support the console better, it's because it is the alternative console with alternative software that sells to an alternative market.

Vita receives more third party support than Wii U (heck there is even a borderlands 2 port on that system) so stop misreading the industry, western 3rd parties have no desire to support an alternative market that largely doesn't buy their games.
 
Bloomberg:

Their figurine business is going to help achieve the company's desired operating income - it will most likely not make it, but alot is riding on the amiibo launch.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-30/success-of-new-mario-game-fails-to-revitalize-nintendo.html

Many business analysts are holding onto Amiibo as the instrument of a major turn-around for Nintendo's financials. My fear is, however, that Nintendo is falling into the same pitfall it did with the Wii U: aka doesn't have a single dedicated and compelling use-case for the technology.

When you talk about the "toys to life" category, you use terms like 'Disney Infinity' and 'Skylanders'; both of these represent dedicated game experiences that utilize these figurines. Nintendo on the other hand seems to be approaching the category by utilizing their existing software franchises to push their products.

The problem with this is obvious, the known games that will leverage Amiibo: Smash and Mario Kart; are not necessary or even intended to use with an NFC figurine. They'll be an afterthought in the great scheme of things. So as it stands you're only going to be pushing the share of wallet of your existing customers instead of attracting net new ones.

It is concerning that there isn't a dedicated 'Nintendo [whatever IP]' that will showcase Amiibo through and through (I say this because there was a relative Amiibo software no-show at E32014.) Is it coming? Probably, but if they intend to release these things by the end of CY2014 we're likely to see them only piggy-back existing franchises.

Anyone else have a similar line of thinking?
 

Chindogg

Member
I feel like word-of-mouth is the most effective marketing.

Back in the Wii days, buzz about the console spread like wildfire and kept Wii sales sky-high even if the actual advertising done by NOA wasn't all that great.

We've seen some actual word-of-mouth advertising for Mario Kart 8---hence the 2.82 million shipped and massive attach rate---but the missing element here is that the word-of-mouth seems to be mostly among those Nintendo fans already invested in the Wii U ecosystem.

Nintendo's strategy has been to use the exact same IPs that received massive word-of-mouth advertising back in the day (like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii) and attempt to replicate that success by releasing iterative sequels.

But it's 2014, not 2007. The fads have burned out among the casual gamer audience.

Its interesting that you bring up word of mouth. When Wii U launched there were several people either saying it was an add on to the Wii. As months progressed, that sentiment continued as well as hearing from the core that the Wii U was dead and Nintendo was going to replace it soon. Even today I still hear these two sentiments when I walk into Gamestops and Best Buys, from employees even.

The word of mouth on the Wii U is still pretty awful, and while its not the end all be all reason why its failing, its pretty clear that public opinion doesn't understand the strengths of the console.

On a side note, has there been one non-cross platform game to really be successful on either XBone or PS4? I'm asking because I have a theory but don't want to extrapolate on it until I'm certain of a few things.

Vita gets criticized all the time, I think most people can clearly see how poorly Sony handled it and all the mistakes that were made and Sony's insistence in not fixing them.

When it comes to Nintendo its always different, if you talk about Sony getting out of the portable market everyone thinks its a reasonable thing to think, you suggest Nintendo moving out of the console market and you are insane. One year ago most people would laugh at you if you pointed out how poorly the WiiU would do.

Eeeh, people were bagging on Wii U a month after launch. To say you would be laughed at is a bit of a stretch. It is funny how you mention how many bash Vita, yet you fail to mention that those who bash 3DS want the successor to be very similar to what Vita offers right now. Would Nintendo software really be the key to a Vita-like success? Very doubtful considering no one wants to pay over $200 for a handheld.
 

random25

Member
To be honest...last year, I was in the camp of Nintendo suffering way too much for the transition to HD, but this year events made me revalue that a little. Or better, they suffered way too much, it's undeniable, but almost the entire industry is suffering this. Look at Sony's Holiday lineup: a game which releases also on PS3 and a game that was supposed to come out at launch. LAUNCH. Ubisoft is the one which seemed to be ready enough.

That's the thing. PS4 and XBO was supposed to ease out development time for HD games, and it still takes time for devs to put out a functioning HD game in the market. It's lucky enough if it doesn't have bugs during day 1 release. A lot of games have been pushed even by a year or two. Even a more mature technology like the PS360 are getting a slow down in game output these days because of manpower focusing on current-gen games. Everybody is really having a hard time pushing out software in HD platforms, not just Nintendo. It's just the nature of putting graphics powerhouse games on the market.

I don't know what you are talking about, there was an entire generation of 8 years of games being developed for HD consoles that Nintendo wasn't a part of.

Yeah Nintendo wasn't part of the last HD gen. But their development time for games is practically just the same as most, if not all, game developers out there in HD.
 

brett2

Member
Eh, they've pulled out of similar situations before. If a company like Sony can continue to float on, even with major loses every quarter, Nintendo can certainly get through a bad slump.

Nintendo turned an annual profit every year since they went public (1981) until 2012. This time things really are different. Complacency has killed thousands of once successful companies - Nintendo is not special in this regard.

And Sony is hardly a company to hold up as successful example of overcoming a slump - they are still in serious trouble long term and have lost their dominant market position in countless segments.
 
seeing lots of parallels between the vita's fanbase and the wii u's to be honest. it's a little weird to me how the wii u gets so much defense on having an awesome library when it lacks in comparison to its predecessor by a decent clip. the same is true of the vita, and i never had a psp. all you have to do though is take a look through the psn store and the differences become clear.

i guess the less successful a product is, the more you have to convince yourself and others that you made the right choice.

Yes, actually. It makes me reconsider some points of view regarding Vita. Probably I'm going to be wRy of blaming "marketing" every time "Vita is failing WHY?" comes out

Still, I like having a Vitas and dunno if I will call something a "right choice" only because does or not well. In that regard, hell, I enjoy even my WiiU.

In that regard, I can have empathy of Nintendo fans that actually like their WiiU. My problem I suppose is when people go to hyperbolic regards in defending them as a products. And WiiU seems to be the one that attract more people to that tactic.
 

enzo_gt

tagged by Blackace
Many business analysts are holding onto Amiibo as the instrument of a major turn-around for Nintendo's financials. My fear is, however, that Nintendo is falling into the same pitfall it did with the Wii U: aka doesn't have a single dedicated and compelling use-case for the technology.

When you talk about the "toys to life" category, you use terms like 'Disney Infinity' and 'Skylanders'; both of these represent dedicated game experiences that utilize these figurines. Nintendo on the other hand seems to be approaching the category by utilizing their existing software franchises to push their products.

The problem with this is obvious, the known games that will leverage Amiibo: Smash and Mario Kart; are not necessary or even intended to use with an NFC figurine. They'll be an afterthought in the great scheme of things. So as it stands you're only going to be pushing the share of wallet of your existing customers instead of attracting net new ones.

It is concerning that there isn't a dedicated 'Nintendo [whatever IP]' that will showcase Amiibo through and through (I say this because there was a relative Amiibo software no-show at E32014.) Is it coming? Probably, but if they intend to release these things by the end of CY2014 we're likely to see them only piggy-back existing franchises.

Anyone else have a similar line of thinking?
I agree with you.

This is very much in line with the Wii U hardware itself. It doesn't particularly excel at anything inherent to it's design. There's nothing truly compelling that isn't just a neat feature, and no absolutely undeniably good library to make people stop looking at the competition and deem it necessary not to make these comparisons.
 

Frolow

Banned
When in Nintendo's history have they have a console sector that was floundering and a handheld sector on a hard downturn? No, this is completely unprecedented from them which is why they plan on doing things like QoL to get a foothold into other markets and partnering with others to use their IPs.

This is not completely unprecedented. The Gamecube was floundering very similar to where the Wii U is now with Nintendo and they pulled through. The downwards sloping handheld market is an issue, but it's not something they can't overcome.
 
Many business analysts are holding onto Amiibo as the instrument of a major turn-around for Nintendo's financials. My fear is, however, that Nintendo is falling into the same pitfall it did with the Wii U: aka doesn't have a single dedicated and compelling use-case for the technology.

When you talk about the "toys to life" category, you use terms like 'Disney Infinity' and 'Skylanders'; both of these represent dedicated game experiences that utilize these figurines. Nintendo on the other hand seems to be approaching the category by utilizing their existing software franchises to push their products.

The problem with this is obvious, the known games that will leverage Amiibo: Smash and Mario Kart; are not necessary or even intended to use with an NFC figurine. They'll be an afterthought in the great scheme of things. So as it stands you're only going to be pushing the share of wallet of your existing customers instead of attracting net new ones.

It is concerning that there isn't a dedicated 'Nintendo [whatever IP]' that will showcase Amiibo through and through (I say this because there was a relative Amiibo software no-show at E32014.) Is it coming? Probably, but if they intend to release these things by the end of CY2014 we're likely to see them only piggy-back existing franchises.

Anyone else have a similar line of thinking?

Agreed. I don't think Amiibo will end up all that popular. The market is already dominated by Skylanders and Disney Infinity, so you have the whole me-too factor limiting potential sales.

And then you're right, the technology won't be properly utilised if it's just an afterthought for two Nintendo IPs. I'm thinking, worst case scenario, they'll end up as much of a failure as AR Cards were for the 3DS...just wasted technology. We'll see.
 

Longsword

Member
Many business analysts are holding onto Amiibo as the instrument of a major turn-around for Nintendo's financials. My fear is, however, that Nintendo is falling into the same pitfall it did with the Wii U: aka doesn't have a single dedicated and compelling use-case for the technology.

When you talk about the "toys to life" category, you use terms like 'Disney Infinity' and 'Skylanders'; both of these represent dedicated game experiences that utilize these figurines. Nintendo on the other hand seems to be approaching the category by utilizing their existing software franchises to push their products.

The problem with this is obvious, the known games that will leverage Amiibo: Smash and Mario Kart; are not necessary or even intended to use with an NFC figurine. They'll be an afterthought in the great scheme of things. So as it stands you're only going to be pushing the share of wallet of your existing customers instead of attracting net new ones.

It is concerning that there isn't a dedicated 'Nintendo [whatever IP]' that will showcase Amiibo through and through (I say this because there was a relative Amiibo software no-show at E32014.) Is it coming? Probably, but if they intend to release these things by the end of CY2014 we're likely to see them only piggy-back existing franchises.

Anyone else have a similar line of thinking?

Yes. The figurines alone will only sell to the hardest of hardcore Nintendo fans. For Amiibos to be a similar billion dollar + franchise, they need dedicated killer games for both WiiU and 3DS. And I mean AAA-quality.

It is not enough to be as good as Infinity and Skylanders, when you are trying to muscle into existing market rather than innovating you need to be better.
 
While I don't think an advertisement campaign would suddenly start selling Wii numbers, I do think that a strong campaign would definitely help. The average person has had problems understanding what a Wii U is with most people thinking that it is an add-on to the Wii rather than a console in its own right. The lack of understanding is one of the key reasons why this console isn't selling. It most definitely not the only reason, but it is still important.

The problem is that when people do find out what a Wii u is, what is there to draw them in? There is no novelty in a tablet controller in 2014, nor was there any in 2012 when the system launched. People have been using tablets and touchscreens as part of their every day lives for more than 5 years by that point. That was never going to draw people in, especially when Nintendo themselves had no useful or appealing uses for the tablet at launch. It was almost the exact opposite scenario from the Wii, which had a novel concept in motion controls and the game at launch to properly show it off. The concept of the Wii u just felt like Nintendo throwing gimmicks at a wall to see what stuck because they were desperate to follow up the Wii somehow. I don't think there is anything that could have been done to make the Wii u as we know it a successful mass market product.
 
Amiibo is a very obvious attempt to get in on the cash Disney and Activision are raking in, but I have to wonder as well that without a dedicated game to use them with, that no one will bother. Or at least, it will make significantly less than they are expecting.
They seem to have lost pretty much all of their own lessons from DS/Wii this time around due to hubris, but it's hard to miss the results.


You could honestly say this for any company that has begun a downward trajectory, and many of these companies just continue on a downward spiral. The problem is that there is no simple fix to Nintendo's problems because there problem is that a good portion of what makes Nintendo Nintendo is just really incompatible with where the games market is heading which saddens me, but it's the truth. Now maybe Nintendo can pull a rabbit out of a hat and surprise people with their next platform, but that seems like an awfully big risk to me.
 
Until there is a successor that will have to face an even harder challenge.

I suppose I'm taking it a little bit for granted that they're going to pull a DS/Wii, not in terms of mass market success but in terms of realigning what exactly is the point of their products. They seem to have lost pretty much all of their own lessons from DS/Wii this time around due to hubris, but it's hard to miss the results.

Are you really questioning the quality of Nintendo's games this generation?

Yes, I am. And, for the record, I own basically all of the major ones on Wii U. Mario Kart is the first one I could say with a straight face actually might justify a system purchase for the average gamer. Even then, I wouldn't say it justifies a $300+ console - it probably warrants more of a $200-250 HW purchase. That's not to say I'm unhappy - though I certainly wouldn't say, bar Pikmin, DKC, and MK, that anything on the platform is up with Nintendo's best - but putting myself in the shoes of someone who Nintendo is supposed to be "bringing to gaming"...

Amiibo is a very obvious attempt to get in on the cash Disney and Activision are raking in, but I have to wonder as well that without a dedicated game to use them with, that no one will bother. Or at least, it will make significantly less than they are expecting.

Amiibo has already failed by virtue of the fact that it does not really do anything to enhance the game experience. It's basically Nintendo's answer to microtransactions based on how it actually influences the games, but there's way too much purchase friction for it to actually turn into meaningful Skylanders/Infinity or pseudo-microtransaction cash.
 

Frolow

Banned
Nintendo turned an annual profit every year since they went public (1981) until 2012. This time things really are different. Complacency has killed thousands of once successful companies - Nintendo is not special in this regard.

And Sony is hardly a company to hold up as successful example of overcoming a slump - they are still in serious trouble long term and have lost their dominant market position in countless segments.

Oh, I'm not saying things aren't bad now. All I was stating was that Nintendo's been in similar, albeit not as bad as now, slumps before that they've overcomed and I fail to see why they won't come out of this one as well.

And I never said Sony is a company to hold up as a success, they're quite the opposite.
 
Amiibo is a very obvious attempt to get in on the cash Disney and Activision are raking in, but I have to wonder as well that without a dedicated game to use them with, that no one will bother. Or at least, it will make significantly less than they are expecting.

In my case, I want Amiibos but not exactly to play Smash Bros with it and more to have Nintendo figurines of characters that other wise would not get it.
 

z0m3le

Banned
MK8 will surely have some legs, But historically, NSMB games also had huge legs. That didn't help the Wii U either. I'm not sure where the MK8 bundle is selling out though, checked all European Amazon websites and it's available immediately.

Mario Maker should be interesting. Are people really interested in even more Mario 2D action? Will they like to create their own levels, which cannot even be shared online? Nintendo has been burned twice with user created content: once with Wario Ware DIY and another time with Jam with the Band - both games lacked sales and thus user created content.

Splatoon is a big wild card, which will be a big failure unless it receives some marketing. Games such as Zelda, Xenoblade, or even Starfox are most likely going to sell to the audience that already own the Wii U, if Mario Kart 8 is any indication.

The desire to play MK8 exists where as the desire to play NSMBU is questionable, there is a clear difference between the too, I live in America and it was sold out on Amazon, Walmart and Gamestop yesterday. (on my phone atm so I'm not checking, but I believe they are waiting for August before replenishing shipments in any large amount.

Also, Mario Maker will likely end up with online sharing, even if it is through miiverse, smash brawl had a map maker with a small online community for sharing stages, miiverse makes this type of sharing gain mass appeal.
 

Shiggy

Member
This is not completely unprecedented. The Gamecube was floundering very similar to where the Wii U is now with Nintendo and they pulled through. The downwards sloping handheld market is an issue, but it's not something they can't overcome.

The GameCube wasn't doing nearly as bad as the Wii U. Also keep in mind that software budgets are much larger these days.
 

xaszatm

Banned
The problem is that when people do find out what a Wii u is, what is there to draw them in? There is no novelty in a tablet controller in 2014, nor was there any in 2012 when the system launched. People have been using tablets and touchscreens as part of their every day lives for more than 5 years by that point. That was never going to draw people in, especially when Nintendo themselves had no useful or appealing uses for the tablet at launch. It was almost the exact opposite scenario from the Wii, which had a novel concept in motion controls and the game at launch to properly show it off. The concept of the Wii u just felt like Nintendo throwing gimmicks at a wall to see what stuck because they were desperate to follow up the Wii somehow. I don't think there is anything that could have been done to make the Wii u as we know it a successful mass market product.

Well, I think they should have had a similar "Wii would like to play" like they did for the Wii. I mean, the Wii sold on Wii sports alone for the longest time and Nintendo Land can be worth it for a fun experience. I mean, both the Xbox One and the PS4 sold well when there were jack all, primarily because of both early adopters and strong advertisement. I think that now, this late in the cycle, a strong advertising campaign isn't going to achieve much, but having a series of advertisements for Hyrule Warriors, Smash Wii U, and Bayonetta 2 will go a long way of at least getting into people's heads. Having multiple commercials advertising different games will break the current setting of "Nintendo doesn't make any games."

Once again, I'm not saying that the hardware sales will suddenly jump up to Wii numbers, that is a pipe dream. I will say that it will help sales move out of dying mode and into better fields. Nintendo needs to keep this momentum going for it to get out of loss mode but there isn't a single solution that will solve it. Rather a multitude of solutions. The advertisement really is just the first step.
 
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