jeff_rigby
Banned
Game Consoles currently exist for a number of reasons that will not be a factor with mid-performance 2016+ PCs.
Piracy: Piracy required embedded encryption keys and encrypted OS and Memory images. This is why they are called embedded platforms which is a required feature for Playready DRM support. All modern Windows 8.1 OEM platforms and newer require a Trusted boot module and embedded Codec keys as well as protected codec/player and in the near future all IO. This is done in AMD APUs and dGPUs using ARM Trustzone.
Performance envelope allowing a quiet Livingroom console: This is self explanatory and the limiting factor in AMD APUs is memory bandwidth. The PS4 used GDDR5 and the XB1 used a 32meg cache with a soon to be used DX12 that supports tiling allowing the 32meg cache to more efficiently process a video frame.
AMD is counting on HBM to solve their bandwidth problems with dGPUs and APUs. They are moving the Southbridge into the APU, adding more CUs and following their roadmap to bring more ARM Cadence IP (Xtensa DPUs and more) into the SoC. Power efficiency is a big part of this with HBM a major factor. It is easily possible to have a 2016 AMD SoC with performance exceeding a PS4 using much less power.
Game Features not found in a PC: Kinect, Eyetoy...etc. Not yet truly mainstream in game consoles with Microsoft and Sony allowing their hardware to be used on PCs. AMD's Kaveri already includes the same Xtensa DPUs that are in the PS4 and XB1. The XB1 contains more Xtensa processors due to the need to support Kinect and because it's GPU is smaller than the PS4 or a mid range PC should have.
Gaming Ecosystem: This is the only way Microsoft and Sony can stay relevant and they will offer their ecosystem to the PCs of the near future. Windows 10 is rumored to be free with a charge for extra services and there is a Xbox APP that allows access to the Xbox game ecosystem.
To the Metal Perfomance: The APPs for the XB1 Windows 10 are all WebGL with OpenGL support same as the PS4. The major difference for games in the near future, Windows is Direct X and Sony will be supporting a more modern efficient OpenGL with a POSIX OS (FreeBSD or Linux). Both DirectX and OpenGL are being optimized for games. This is possible due to new hardware features like QOS and Trusted boot/embedded with Trustzone. In the past the GPU drivers were used as a choke point for DRM video and driver development was all in house for security. This is now opening up to third parties with OpenGL on Linux now a threat to Microsoft's DirectX which put a fire under them.
Predictions: Wild first, Sony will enable Other OS Linux support on the PS4. The future for Sony games is Linux running on X-86 PCs while the future for Microsoft is Windows. Sony will encourage Linux development and Android, which is a virtual engine running on a OpenGL Linux kernel. The only other choices are to change to Windows Direct X or Microsoft drops Direct X for OpenGL which I doubt will happen.
My belief is that Sony and Microsoft chose X-86 because they see this also. This will also be true for a new Nintendo console. The only other contender for Game Consoles is ARM and there are several being released in the next six months. Some have performance near last generation game consoles and are only viable because of the Vidipath (DLNA CVP2) ecosystem and game streaming (Gaikai like).
PCs are not dead and will move to the living room. The choice will be Windows X86 with the Xbox ecosystem and/or Android running on a X86 Linux kernel with games either ARM or Linux OpenGL which can run future AAA games from Sony with the Playstation ecosystem.
Apps/programs will be Web based with OpenCL.. HSAIL and OpenCL allow native performance to programs as APPS.
There is no longer a need for a future Game Console provided there is no new feature that won't be found in future AMD SoCs. 4K TVs, Vidipath (DLNA CVP2), HTML5 with WebGL and VR make a PC in the living room more valuable. It will offer the same features the XB1 and PS4 will offer to other platforms in the home. In the short term Kaveri, PS4 and XB1 support HEVC as does Windows 10 and they can sideload and transcode to AVCHD (h.264) which is the current Vidipath DLNA standard.
By 2017 every TV will be a smart TV or have a Vidipath STB connected to it. There will be a need for at least one media hub with hard disk (read PC, XB1 or PS4 which are essentially 2016 PCs), the other TVs can use ARM STBs or HDMI sticks.
EDIT: True and pointed out by nurmerus posts in this thread there are other reasons for consoles (marketing,easy to use front end UI, Ecosystem) that I did not address. My point was there will no longer be a hardware need for consoles as 2016+ AMD SoCs have all required features needed for a game console. A 2016+ AMD SoC with the features of a PS4 will have little impact on this generation. The windows 10 Xbox APP, since it's running on a browser desktop can mimic a Xbox Game Console UI screen.
2nd Edit: This post from late 2012 and the Leaked 2010 Xbox 720 powerpoint I found are the basis for all my early speculation. I saw the trends late 2010 but until the above and later the RVU/RUI DLNA CVP2 finds didn't realize it was a world wide convergence. PCs as media hubs I believe creates the demand that allows PCs to move to the Living room...this is only possible with power/performance envelopes allowed (Noise and IPTV power modes) and embedded DRM. This is only starting to happen with PCs and the key is HBM which won't be used with a APU/SoC till 2016+.
**This is a 2010 Sony white paper that was presented to the ATSC committee on what would become Sony Media fusion.** Features in it should become part of Playstation Vue.
Piracy: Piracy required embedded encryption keys and encrypted OS and Memory images. This is why they are called embedded platforms which is a required feature for Playready DRM support. All modern Windows 8.1 OEM platforms and newer require a Trusted boot module and embedded Codec keys as well as protected codec/player and in the near future all IO. This is done in AMD APUs and dGPUs using ARM Trustzone.
Performance envelope allowing a quiet Livingroom console: This is self explanatory and the limiting factor in AMD APUs is memory bandwidth. The PS4 used GDDR5 and the XB1 used a 32meg cache with a soon to be used DX12 that supports tiling allowing the 32meg cache to more efficiently process a video frame.
AMD is counting on HBM to solve their bandwidth problems with dGPUs and APUs. They are moving the Southbridge into the APU, adding more CUs and following their roadmap to bring more ARM Cadence IP (Xtensa DPUs and more) into the SoC. Power efficiency is a big part of this with HBM a major factor. It is easily possible to have a 2016 AMD SoC with performance exceeding a PS4 using much less power.
Game Features not found in a PC: Kinect, Eyetoy...etc. Not yet truly mainstream in game consoles with Microsoft and Sony allowing their hardware to be used on PCs. AMD's Kaveri already includes the same Xtensa DPUs that are in the PS4 and XB1. The XB1 contains more Xtensa processors due to the need to support Kinect and because it's GPU is smaller than the PS4 or a mid range PC should have.
Gaming Ecosystem: This is the only way Microsoft and Sony can stay relevant and they will offer their ecosystem to the PCs of the near future. Windows 10 is rumored to be free with a charge for extra services and there is a Xbox APP that allows access to the Xbox game ecosystem.
To the Metal Perfomance: The APPs for the XB1 Windows 10 are all WebGL with OpenGL support same as the PS4. The major difference for games in the near future, Windows is Direct X and Sony will be supporting a more modern efficient OpenGL with a POSIX OS (FreeBSD or Linux). Both DirectX and OpenGL are being optimized for games. This is possible due to new hardware features like QOS and Trusted boot/embedded with Trustzone. In the past the GPU drivers were used as a choke point for DRM video and driver development was all in house for security. This is now opening up to third parties with OpenGL on Linux now a threat to Microsoft's DirectX which put a fire under them.
Predictions: Wild first, Sony will enable Other OS Linux support on the PS4. The future for Sony games is Linux running on X-86 PCs while the future for Microsoft is Windows. Sony will encourage Linux development and Android, which is a virtual engine running on a OpenGL Linux kernel. The only other choices are to change to Windows Direct X or Microsoft drops Direct X for OpenGL which I doubt will happen.
My belief is that Sony and Microsoft chose X-86 because they see this also. This will also be true for a new Nintendo console. The only other contender for Game Consoles is ARM and there are several being released in the next six months. Some have performance near last generation game consoles and are only viable because of the Vidipath (DLNA CVP2) ecosystem and game streaming (Gaikai like).
PCs are not dead and will move to the living room. The choice will be Windows X86 with the Xbox ecosystem and/or Android running on a X86 Linux kernel with games either ARM or Linux OpenGL which can run future AAA games from Sony with the Playstation ecosystem.
Apps/programs will be Web based with OpenCL.. HSAIL and OpenCL allow native performance to programs as APPS.
There is no longer a need for a future Game Console provided there is no new feature that won't be found in future AMD SoCs. 4K TVs, Vidipath (DLNA CVP2), HTML5 with WebGL and VR make a PC in the living room more valuable. It will offer the same features the XB1 and PS4 will offer to other platforms in the home. In the short term Kaveri, PS4 and XB1 support HEVC as does Windows 10 and they can sideload and transcode to AVCHD (h.264) which is the current Vidipath DLNA standard.
By 2017 every TV will be a smart TV or have a Vidipath STB connected to it. There will be a need for at least one media hub with hard disk (read PC, XB1 or PS4 which are essentially 2016 PCs), the other TVs can use ARM STBs or HDMI sticks.
EDIT: True and pointed out by nurmerus posts in this thread there are other reasons for consoles (marketing,
2nd Edit: This post from late 2012 and the Leaked 2010 Xbox 720 powerpoint I found are the basis for all my early speculation. I saw the trends late 2010 but until the above and later the RVU/RUI DLNA CVP2 finds didn't realize it was a world wide convergence. PCs as media hubs I believe creates the demand that allows PCs to move to the Living room...this is only possible with power/performance envelopes allowed (Noise and IPTV power modes) and embedded DRM. This is only starting to happen with PCs and the key is HBM which won't be used with a APU/SoC till 2016+.
**This is a 2010 Sony white paper that was presented to the ATSC committee on what would become Sony Media fusion.** Features in it should become part of Playstation Vue.
