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[Jigorath]

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - 144k
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - 65k
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - 155k
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - 202k
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - 145k
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - 77k
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - 65k

 

[Chris1964]

PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 01 to Feb 28):

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) -
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) -
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) -
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) -
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) -
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) -
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) -​

Month of bombs?

 

[hiska-kun]

Month of bombs?

I was thinking the same lol

 

[1st Course]

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) 120k
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) 70k
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) 70k
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) 150k
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) 120k
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) 50k
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) 50k

Have a feeling that SFV is going to underperform hard.

 

[Chris1964]

I was thinking the same lol

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - nothing extraordinary
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - uninteresting
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - bomb
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - it could have respectable sales
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - bomb
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - uninteresting
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - the only kinda interesting

 

[Pennywise83]

SMTIV Final is an interesting project. It will sell less than SMTIV, of course, but it can still do respectably, i.e. 160k+ units.

 

[Sandfox]

SFV bombing and not having an arcade version would be interesting for lack of a better word.

 

[Mario007]

It's really odd that SFV seems to be doing so miserably in the preorders. I kinda thought the game had a chance at 150-200k FW sales but apparently fighting games are just another genre to fall off in Japan.

 

[Celine]

[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - the only kinda interesting

Yeah I wonder how will fare the combination of cheap hardware bundled with heavy nostalgia games.

 

[Takao]

It's really odd that SFV seems to be doing so miserably in the preorders. I kinda thought the game had a chance at 150-200k FW sales but apparently fighting games are just another genre to fall off in Japan.

Vanille SFIV has a LTD just a few thousand units above 200k on PS3 and 360. Arcade version or not, SFV likely never had a shot at doing that FW.

As for the multiplayer thing, is that really that big on consoles in Japan? I know Splatoon has been a big success but I thought single player games still did pretty well. I'm looking forward to this one because its a single player game. In my experience local multiplayer in Minecraft is great, but online multiplayer often leads to strife and misery

The most popular dedicated version of Minecraft in Japan is on Vita and I have to imagine the port's well done multi-player (both local + online) is a large reason it's still trucking.

 

[wrowa]

Where are these high expectations for VC coming from? Remasters didn't seem to be particularly popular in Japan in the past and 70k - 100k first week is quite a lot. 100k is what the original games in the series sold FW when it was still kind of a thing.

 

[duckroll]

Well it has a demo of the next Valkyria game on PS4, so I guess it depends on whether you think fans are excited for that.

 

[Moor-Angol]

As for the multiplayer thing, is that really that big on consoles in Japan? I know Splatoon has been a big success but I thought single player games still did pretty well. I'm looking forward to this one because its a single player game. In my experience local multiplayer in Minecraft is great, but online multiplayer often leads to strife and misery

think about how much MH sold on PS2 and how much on PSP, the difference is "local multiplayer"



and squeenix made a minecraft clone (local multiplayer) without multiplayer

genius

 

[Moor-Angol]

It's really odd that SFV seems to be doing so miserably in the preorders. I kinda thought the game had a chance at 150-200k FW sales but apparently fighting games are just another genre to fall off in Japan.

Persona 4 Arena sold 200k on PS360, which was a very good result

but it was a porting from arcade...

 

[Asd202]

Persona 4 Arena sold 200k on PS360, which was a very good result

but it was a porting from arcade...

Well yeah but it was Persona, a lot of people bought it for the story mode. SF is much more western focused anyway.

 

[sense]

expectations for attack on titan seem to be low. i was thinking 200k would be the bare minimum. i am thinking it will sell more than that from the effort they seem to have put into it but lets see

 

[Ōkami]

Dragon Quest Builders will be released in China on April 28th.

Square seems to be pushing their IPs to China, Dragon Quest Heroes also released on it and Final Fantasy XV is planned as well.

 

[Eolz]

PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2016

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Feb 01 to Feb 28):

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - 139k
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - 50k
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - 88k
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - 222k
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - 161k
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - 74k
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - 45k

Really not sure for the last one

 

[Primethius]

What would be a bomb for SFV as opposed to expected sales?

I was thinking the game would open at 65-75k, which is down from SFIV's opening but still seems fairly in line for the Japanese market.

 

[Takao]

Dragon Quest Builders will be released in China on April 28th.

Square seems to be pushing their IPs to China, Dragon Quest Heroes also released on it and Final Fantasy XV is planned as well.

Kind of weird that they translated the logo when the Japanese one is in English.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Kind of weird that they translated the logo when the Japanese one is in English.

Guess cause japan really likes English (or thinks it's cool or something) and China doesn't/is indifferent.

 

[Chris1964]

Where are these high expectations for VC coming from? Remasters didn't seem to be particularly popular in Japan in the past and 70k - 100k first week is quite a lot. 100k is what the original games in the series sold FW when it was still kind of a thing.

Where are the expectations for 2DS coming from? We have no idea for the size of shipment.

Well it has a demo of the next Valkyria game on PS4, so I guess it depends on whether you think fans are excited for that.

You mean like Type-0?

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

So Minecraft just beat Splatoon for number 1 all time.
What were Splatoon's last digital estimates?

 

[Mr Swine]

So Minecraft just beat Splatoon for number 1 all time.
What were Splatoon's last digital estimates?

Wii U mine Craft? Isn't splats on around 125-150k so far?

 

[Chris1964]

So Minecraft just beat Splatoon for number 1 all time.
What were Splatoon's last digital estimates?

After 4 weeks

total: 368.000
retail: 310.582
digital: ~58.000
digital/retail: ~19%


After 22 weeks

total: 905.000
retail: 737.478
digital: ~168.000
digital/retail: ~23%

Until 25 October 2015

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

So it might have beaten the PS4 version already?
Should hit the 200k mark soon.

 

[Orgen]

So Minecraft just beat Splatoon for number 1 all time.
What were Splatoon's last digital estimates?

And there's not a thread by hero of legend yet? Colour me surprised Ö

 

[Chris1964]

Thread with Minecraft Wii U LTD predictions should be interesting now.

 

[Hero of Legend]

And there's not a thread by hero of legend yet? Colour me surprised Ö

I just found out. XD Should I go for it?

 

[frankie_baby]

So it might have beaten the PS4 version already?
Should hit the 200k mark soon.

I'd guess it's already past 200k

 

[frankie_baby]

I just found out. XD Should I go for it?

You might as well

 

[Chris1964]

predictions

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - 123.456
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - 43.210
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - 54.321
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - 210.987
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - 76.543
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - 34.567
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - 98.765

 

[casiopao]

Predictions

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - 139.000
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - 43.000
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - 65.000
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - 220.000
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - 75.000
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - 38.000
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - 100.000

 

[saichi]

Dragon Quest Builders will be released in China on April 28th.

Square seems to be pushing their IPs to China, Dragon Quest Heroes also released on it and Final Fantasy XV is planned as well.

odd as the title says it's a traditional Chinese version but simplified Chinese is used in China. Are you this is not for Taiwan?

 

[duckroll]

odd as the title says it's a traditional Chinese version but simplified Chinese is used in China. Are you this is not for Taiwan?

Well considering how it was announced at the Taipei Game Show today... pretty sure it's not about China!

 

[noshten]

So Minecraft just beat Splatoon for number 1 all time.
What were Splatoon's last digital estimates?

Called it:

Minecraft Wii U has off-tv play.

Not all kids in Japan own a Vita. Wii U Minecraft I'd think will end up being one of the top selling 3rd-party games on the Wii U and I'm not talking strictly Japan. Considering the laughable amounts 3rd Parties sell on the Wii U it won't take much to make it the top selling 3rd party game.
I don't even know if anything other than Hyrule Warriors selling more than a million and that's pretty much a Nintendo owned property. While I'd venture to guess that there hasn't been many games that sold more than 500K. That's not just because of the audience size, realistically there are few 3rd party games that are appealing to purchase on a Wii U. Minecraft has certain features that might make it an attractive purchase for an existing owner. I think it depends on integration with the gamepad - such outside of off-tv play hasn't been announced but if there is it might be a reason to buy it.
I'd say that lifetime Minecraft can do over 200K in Japan and I think it will do quite well elsewhere. The only reason Microsoft isn't publishing it on the 3DS is because of the 3DS limitation but the next handheld device Nintendo releases a Minecraft port will be there at launch, they might be working on it as we speak.

 

[1st Course]

Capcom To Combine Japan And US Mobile Operations

http://insidegamesasia.biz/capcom-to-combine-japan-and-us-mobile-operations/

 

[unapersson]

The most popular dedicated version of Minecraft in Japan is on Vita and I have to imagine the port's well done multi-player (both local + online) is a large reason it's still trucking.

think about how much MH sold on PS2 and how much on PSP, the difference is "local multiplayer"

and squeenix made a minecraft clone (local multiplayer) without multiplayer

genius

Yes, that's part of my reason, I thought multiplayer tended to be popular on handheld while singleplayer is more popular on console. One of the reasons given why a console Monster Hunter was pointless is it's all about adhoc local multiplayer rather than the multiplayer that consoles offer.

Though I guess that lack of multiplayer might affect the longevity of the Vita version.

 

[Nightengale]

Kind of weird that they translated the logo when the Japanese one is in English.

Guess cause japan really likes English (or thinks it's cool or something) and China doesn't/is indifferent.

A proper Chinese translation/text in product branding/marketing is quite important for marketing/product push in China. I don't know about Taiwan though.

Some brands can get away with it, but in general, I've been involved in enough China-related marketing discussions where English brands who want to force their "global brand purity" (no Chinese version of their logo) are forced to eat crow and localise for the Chinese market.

 

[Mr Swine]

PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2016

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - 98k
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - 132k
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - 201k
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - 112k
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - 249k
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - 168k
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - 76k

 

[kubricks]

Dragon Quest Builders will be released in China on April 28th.

Square seems to be pushing their IPs to China, Dragon Quest Heroes also released on it and Final Fantasy XV is planned as well.

Thanks for the news, day 1!

 

[kubricks]

odd as the title says it's a traditional Chinese version but simplified Chinese is used in China. Are you this is not for Taiwan?

Or Hong Kong

 

[hiska-kun]

Dragon Quest Builders will be released in China on April 28th.

Square seems to be pushing their IPs to China, Dragon Quest Heroes also released on it and Final Fantasy XV is planned as well.

These characters are from Taiwan, not China.

 

[Chris1964]

PREDICTION LEAGUE FEBRUARY 2016

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - 98k
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - 132k
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - 201k
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - 112k
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - 249k
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - 168k
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - 76k

It looks we found the new Sony biased Kandinsky

 

[Chris1964]

Week 5, 2016 (Feb 1 - Feb 7)

new releases

2016.02.03

[3DS] Detective Pikachu: New Combi Birth _3DS Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (Pokemon Co.) (¥1.388)
[WIU] Cube Life: Island Survival _Wii U Download Software_ |DL| <ADV> (Teyon Japan) (¥925)
[WIU] Kirby Canvas Curse _Wii U Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥879)
[WIU] Konami Krazy Racers _Wii U Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <RCE> (Konami) (¥650)


2016.02.04

[PSV] Sangoku Koi Senki: Omoide Gaeshi - CS Edition <ADV> (Prototype) (¥5.300)
[PSV] Sangoku Koi Senki: Omoide Gaeshi - CS Edition (.) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Prototype) (¥4.352)
[PSV] Seiken Densetsu: Final Fantasy Adventure _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) (¥1.296)
[PSP] Sangoku Koi Senki: Omoide Gaeshi - CS Edition <ADV> (Prototype) (¥5.300)
[PS4] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥7.600)


2016.02.05

[PSV] Wizardry: City of Lost Souls _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Acquire) (¥1.851)

___

YSO predictions

01. [PS4] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 < 65k (average 55k)
02. [PSV] Dragon Quest Builders: Alefgard o Fukkatsu Niseyo < 45k (average 40k)
03. [PS4] Dragon Quest Builders: Alefgard o Fukkatsu Niseyo < 35k (average 30k)
03. [WIU] Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash < 35k (average 30k)

 

[Pennywise83]

expectations for attack on titan seem to be low. i was thinking 200k would be the bare minimum. i am thinking it will sell more than that from the effort they seem to have put into it but lets see

For reference, Attack on Titan sold 300k+ units on 3DS alone (around 400k units considering the expansion).

 

[DriftingSpirit]

That would be pretty good for NUNS4, yeah?

 

[Chris1964]

For reference, Attack on Titan sold 300k+ units on 3DS alone (around 400k units considering the expansion).

This thread has predictions only for AoT first week, not LTD.

 

[Maniel]

Week 5, 2016 (Feb 1 - Feb 7)
YSO predictions

01. [PS4] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 < 65k (average 55k)
02. [PSV] Dragon Quest Builders: Alefgard o Fukkatsu Niseyo < 45k (average 40k)
03. [PS4] Dragon Quest Builders: Alefgard o Fukkatsu Niseyo < 35k (average 30k)
03. [WIU] Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash < 35k (average 30k)

Not too good for Naruto. Here's Famitsu's numbers for 3.

02./00. [PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 3 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.04.18} (¥7.480) - 84.140 / NEW <60-80%>

Edit: It is a comparable opening to 2 though. Media Create numbers btw.

03. / 00. [PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 (Bandai Namco) - 63.675 / NEW

 

[Sammy Samusu]

predictions

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final (19 days) - 123.456
[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered (19 days) - 43.210
[PS4] Street Fighter V (11 days) - 54.321
[PSV] Kan Colle Kai (11 days) - 210.987
[PS4 + PS3 + PSV] Attack on Titan (11 days) - 76.543
[PS4 + PSV] Project Setsuna (11 days) - 34.567
[3DS] Nintendo 2DS [Pocket Monsters] (2 days) - 98.765