brainchild
Banned
So with the news that Bernie has won the Michigan primary, it comes as a shock to all of us... except for one person. His name is Tyler Pedigo.
I've been following Tyler's predictions for a couple of weeks now, and I've noticed that his statistical model has been getting astonishingly more accurate with every primary/caucus day. He predicted every Super Tuesday state with the exception of Minnesota, and he's corrected predicted every state since then, with fairly similar margins to the actual results.
As I understand it, Tyler uses a combination of social media and Google trends data points, and refines his predictions by honing in on what variables are key to showing how likely a state is going to vote for one candidate over the other.
Well, yesterday, he looked at his data, as was surprised to find that it was predicting an upset, despite the poll numbers.
Here's what he had to say about it:
Link
What's incredible is that this guy doesn't rely on polls; just the internet and some fancy math.
Personally, I think that he should be on national television explaining his model, after seeing tonight's results.
I've been following Tyler's predictions for a couple of weeks now, and I've noticed that his statistical model has been getting astonishingly more accurate with every primary/caucus day. He predicted every Super Tuesday state with the exception of Minnesota, and he's corrected predicted every state since then, with fairly similar margins to the actual results.
As I understand it, Tyler uses a combination of social media and Google trends data points, and refines his predictions by honing in on what variables are key to showing how likely a state is going to vote for one candidate over the other.
Well, yesterday, he looked at his data, as was surprised to find that it was predicting an upset, despite the poll numbers.
Here's what he had to say about it:
Its a bit unsettling to go against the grain with this forecast. As far as I know, every outlet is projecting a Clinton win tomorrow in both Michigan and Mississippi.
The Sanders campaign must be doing something remarkable in Michigan right now, because the upswing in Sanders popularity among my data sources is undeniable. I am seeing levels of interest in Bernie Sanders in Michigan similar to that of Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. This, along with Michigans relatively normal demographic makeup, leads me to personally believe that he does have a chance. It leads my model to estimate that he will win there. Hillary leads every conventional poll, however, which makes me skeptical of these numbers.
Bernie Sanders will be lucky to get above 20% in Mississippi, but I do believe that if he doesnt win Michigan, the final results will be very close. Here are the numbers:
My official prediction is that Bernie will win Michigan and Hillary will win Mississippi, but in reality Michigan is too close to call with a mathematical model. Elections culminate in a single number after the movement of hundreds or thousands of variables, and as statisticians we can only select a few of those and hope that we account for as much variance as possible. Given the outcome of all the other elections so far this season, the positions of those variables right now in Michigan seem to indicate that a massive upset will happen tomorrow night.
-Tyler
Link
What's incredible is that this guy doesn't rely on polls; just the internet and some fancy math.
Personally, I think that he should be on national television explaining his model, after seeing tonight's results.