Kite
Member
Na Bernie is losing about as badly as predicted.
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Bernie Sanders Picks Up Major Union Endorsement Ahead Of Caucuses
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boiled goose
good with gravy
Meh. On policy itself it's not that unfair to characterize Hillary and co as centrist conservatives. The gop at this point are right wing extremists.
legacyzero
Banned
How's he looking in California? That's a heavy hitter, right?
Are you joking? I can never tell, the amount of downplaying I see re: Bernie is pretty comical.
The article itself says Bernie has only led in two polls.
It's also a 1 point lead with a margin of error of 3.1 so within the amount it could or could not be accurate. They do note that most other recent polls has Clinton up by double digits. I'd say that article hurts your argument more then builds it.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I mean...this is sort of exactly it. A "big day" of 50 delegates would still leave him multiple hundreds behind.
This isn't about being "anti-Bernie" at this point, its about looking at the states left and how hard a bunch of them need to break in a way that's incredibly unrealistic
Please give me the scenario in which he overtakes Hillary?
You know, based on math. Not just feels.
I swear to God, Bernie vs Hillary really is just a proxy war for some users' egos at this point, isn't it? Can't even get two posts in to these threads without the same console wars bullshit cropping up every time. Hasn't gotten too bad in this thread yet, but I'm sure it's only a matter of time before this thread also devolves into the usual nonsense. I don't know how Dems expect unity and civility after the primaries with the amount of venom being spewed at each other. Enemy of my enemy, I guess.
In any case, regardless of his prospects, I'm happy to see him sticking it out to the bitter end (bitter as it may be). The party needs to pull to the left, imo, so it's nice to see some form of outside insurgency. His visibility is (hopefully) making farther-left views more visible and palatable to the American populace. I just hope that this infighting doesn't lead to a weaker Democratic party long-term. Given what the Republicans are dealing with, though, it should be fine.
Although a lot of Sanders supporters weren't Dems to begin with--and likely will still not be after the primary.
In any case, regardless of his prospects, I'm happy to see him sticking it out to the bitter end (bitter as it may be). The party needs to pull to the left, imo, so it's nice to see some form of outside insurgency. His visibility is (hopefully) making farther-left views more visible and palatable to the American populace. I just hope that this infighting doesn't lead to a weaker Democratic party long-term. Given what the Republicans are dealing with, though, it should be fine.
boiled goose
good with gravy
I'm pretty sure he is still down in the polls, but I don't know how recent they are.
California might decide the election if Bernie manages to keep it close.
If he gets destroyed in New York it might be over before that.
He basically needs to do well in all states up to NY. Then do well in NY and not get crushed in Maryland. If he does this, it's all gonna come down to Cali (which he is still behind in)
Old Gimlet Eyes
Member
There isn't one.
OnionPowder
Member
Bernie hate on GAF is mind boggling.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Sorry, but no. When it comes to policy, Hillary and Bernie have a pretty similar record. She was actually one of the more liberal senators in the country when she served. It's really great that Bernie has brought a new, previously apathetic audience to the table , but their ignorance of politics really shows sometimes.
Like I said, it's the Tea Party playbook of calling anyone who breaks from the extreme-right a RINO. It looks dumb there, and it looks dumb here.
djplaeskool
Member
I've mostly disengaged at this point.
Blah blah, Bernie can't run this game at a solid 30fps, but it's a Bernie exclusive until Q4 2017. Naw, Hillary sold more, but the Hilldawg bundle isn't tracked by NPD in the same SKU...
boiled goose
good with gravy
It is actually pretty hard for him to overtake her outright...
In my most optimistic scenario (winning California, keeping it close in places like PR, NJ, NM, Maryland, and doing better than expected in the Pacific and Open primaries, I have him bringing it to within -100)
You basically just redefined your own standards and argued against a strawman. My argument was based on what they want to achieve going forward.
My standard (and the most fair standard?) would be this. Define Center as what he have in terms of policy now.
Hillary is basically a centrist. A "conservative" from the perspective of maintaining the status quo that Obama left behind.
Based on this standard, the majority of Americans are center left. They, in average, want a bit more progressive policies. (tbf in many issues distributions are bimodal, but the average still holds). The GOP candidates like Cruz are far right extremism. Bernie is left, but not crazy far left. Slightly to the left of most Americans maybe.
Calling Hillary a Republican is completely completely stupid. It ignores how insane far right the GOP really is.
Calling her a centrist, a moderate, a "conservative" (with that definition, not the GOPs), meh. It's arguable IMO.
Calling Bernie supporters the Tea Party! is also really silly.
And just FYI, I don't consider myself a Bernie supporter and I am certainly not apathetic about politics haha. Been involved with local politics at the state level for over 10 years. Have you ever met your state reps? Do you have relationships with Aides? Have you ever gone canvassing to support specific state resolutions? Yah.. haha
Months ago, the Poligaf generally consensus was that he'd drop before or immediately after Super Tuesday
HUELEN10
Member
It can be at times, but there are a lot of Bernie voters and supporters here too.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Big Baybee
Member
There are plenty of supporters on both sides. It's just that GAF isn't an echo chamber, and it's blowing your mind.
I don't expect him to, unless he dominates the West (including California). But Sanders has massively, massively, massively exceeded expectations. I still can't believe the most radical legislator in the United States has made it this far, especially against the most powerful Democrat not named Barack Obama.
boiled goose
good with gravy
There are a few annoying drive by pro Bernie posts every once in a while, but there are tons of regular posters who's fanboyism for Clinton is truly outstanding. They are not only pro Hillary (which is fine), the degree to which they attack Bernie is insane. Just look at the thread title for the spying thread.
If that shit is not purpose but just subconscious bias it is amazing.
Like for example this exchange. It is basically fanboyism 101.
The respondee basically said he has definitely surpassed HillaryGAF expectations, which is true.
The kneejerk defensive, non sequitur response is, "but he can't win!!!" What??
It is like impossible to have a rational conversation.
Well... Yeah.
OnionPowder
Member
Not that, it just seems to be a lot of hate from both sides instead of actual discussion. Not like Hillary supporters "blow my mind" since I actually think Hillary is a great candidate.
all u do is damage control in these threads. always. over and over. your criticisms are basically a projection of what you actually do.
Big Baybee
Member
We have plenty of negative Hillary posts and threads too, not just "a few". Come on now....
boiled goose
good with gravy
I try to be honest and post my mind. If you disagree with something I said, point it out and I will try to address it. I am happy to be corrected when I am wrong.
It is not about negative vs positive. It is about fair vs unfair. It is not about being neutral or balanced. It is about being objective. I try to be objective.
For example, a fair attack on Sanders would be his stance on GMO labeling. Heck you could even attack him from the left if you were a complete pacifist.
The thread about spying was not a fair attack. It was at best misleading and at worst completely dishonest. The hatred on the DNC lawsuit thread was absurd.
Lets see if he actually manages to close the gap down to 250 delegates this weekend and we can do the math afterwards. A lot will probably depend on his performance in Wisconsin afterwards. 200 delegate difference is pretty huge but not insurmountable - but without actually getting big wins prior to NY I can't see how the race shifts in his favor. What he needs this weekend to keep things alive is to close the gap by over 50 delegates - which requires a blow out in the caucuses with an extremely strong performance in WA(65% or more). If he somehow manages to replicate his performance in other caucus states and closes the difference by 60-75 delegates ahead of Wisconsin and Wyoming another two states he should win, than the narrative could be a lot different heading into New York.
The real difficulty for Sanders is that after April 9th every single big contest till May is a Closed Primary. Thus far his campaign has failed in these types of races and NY, PA, MD if won by Hillary would remove even the most far fetched chances of him winning the nomination.
Well between his win in Democrats Abroad, UT, ID and expected wins in WA, AK, HI and WY, his net total gain will be about 80-100 delegates. But you're absolutely right. The states that are left won't give him the requisite delegates to win. I feel his campaign and his supporters are counting on something cataclysmic to happen to Clinton at this point. I still expect Clinton to win the nomination with about 350 delegates to spare.
Gnome Scat
Member
Good for him, although I don't know if it will help salvage his campaign at all.
boiled goose
good with gravy
At this point, I would make it a bit tighter. 250
That said, I was at ~166 difference before super Tuesday 2 and Sanders did worse than I expected.
I'm not sure this is true, but assuming that most Sanders supporters aren't Democrats and won't become Democrats, that means that Sanders is basically trying to colonize the Democratic party with his supporters and subvert the will of the people. Why would you expect positive relationships between Sanders supporters and Clinton supporters in that situation?
Well, yeah, but to be fair, that assumed he'd drop out when it became clear he had no possibility of winning.
It is totally accurate that after Super Tuesday he has no possibility of winning, so chalk one up for PoliGAF there. Nailed it.
However, it seems clear at this point that Bernie is not running based on rationally expecting to win. Which is not unusual or anything, lots of presidential candidates run for lots of reasons.
Getting the longshoremen is a big deal for Bernie. Doesn't change the math but I'd expect it to be visible in California and Hawaii.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Some comments.
"subvert the will of the people" huh??
Disagree that it was clear he could not win after Super Tuesday. He did a bit worse than needed in the South, but to me the only really bad sign for him was not winning MA. To me, it was Hillary's sweep in Super Tuesday 2 that made his chances clearly very unlikely. There was no rational basis for him to drop out after Super Tuesday. That would have simply been stupid.
People keep talking about narrative and momentum. It doesn't matter! In 2008 Obama swept February. Clinton came back in April/May but it was too late. This year, Bernie was riding on his victory in NH but Clinton won NV and SC and Clinton never gave up the delegate lead since. Bernie wins MI and Clinton sweeps ST2. Narrative and momentum does not matter this late in the game when both candidates have certain demographics that support. We can predict with a fair amount of accuracy who will be the nominee and how many delegates they will win, even which states they are likely to win, barring some major event.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Yup. There has been no clear momentum this election cycle.
The only time I maybe thought there could be Bernie mentum was after the Michigan upset, but then he got pretty solidly crushed in Ohio.
I think you may have misread me slightly. I was quite careful in choosing my words such as to not imply a majority one way or the other. While I don't know the exact breakdown of Sanders' supporters by party affiliation, what I have seen and read suggests that he does have a decent amount of pull with unaffiliated voters (and, bizarrely enough, some disaffected Republicans who aren't troll-voting). As for the unity statement, that was only half-rhetorical. If what I've seen in these threads is any indication of the larger picture--and I would hope it's not--then there's more likely to be gloating and grave-pissing once Sanders bows out rather than true attempts to bridge the gap and unite against the Republicans. I know that there are quite a few supporters of one candidate versus the other that recognize this and will set aside their differences for the GE, but I worry that the most visible cheerleaders of one side aren't interested in that and will instead attempt to rub the other side's collective nose in the dirt.
That "will of the people" comment is peculiar, though. Wouldn't this actually be the opposite of subversion and instead assertion of the will of a disaffected group of people who, aside from running under the banner of an established party that most closely aligns with their values, have slim to no chance at representation of their values? I won't argue that such a situation looks like party insurgency, but I'll only buy the subversion angle if it's viewed as zero-sum. And even then, if the prevailing status quo must lose in order for the less visible group to gain, then it only becomes subversive once you identify with the dominant group. From the point of view of the disaffected, it's progress.
I won't deny that a lot of Dems are okay with where the party stands and don't actually want to move further left. That's too bad to me, as I'd love to see a further-left party on equal footing with the Dems and Reps. But that isn't likely with our current voting system, so tugging the Dems leftward is really the only option.
The problem with your logic and comparing this cycle to 2008 is that by March 25th in 2008 the only large states yet to vote in the Primary process were PA and NC.
Only in BernieLand is she is a centrist conservative.
Ignoring that Hillary wins more often in more populous states and any place with sizable minority populations.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Instead of reading my post and disagreeing with my points you just assert the opposite. :/
No matter how much you want to redefine Centrist Conservative so Hillary fits in your neat box.
Its false on all points.
boiled goose
good with gravy
How does that have anything to do with the question I was answering.
So you feel bad about how people choose to spend their money. Maybe Hills needs to push legislation to stop this predatory donation schemes that allow people like Bernie Sanders to run for political offices.
Right. Let's crown a nominee with no discussion.
Aaronology
Member
There was a discussion. That discussion is clearly over.
Kind of amazing how you can claim advancing a different vision for the party is anti-democratic but can't see the authoritarianism implicit in the same argument. Party hackery at its best.
Then perhaps Ben should clarify his above statement.
And clearly, to you maybe. Meanwhile, some people still hold out hope for Sanders.
shadowsdarknes
Member
The stronger Bernie can build his coalition and continue to engage people in the political process, the more stronger the progressive voice. This voice can help keep Hillary accountable to progressive causes.
Lord_Byron28
Member
Yeah there are a fair share of Sanders fans that behavior poorly on this forum and I can't agree with voting for Trump in the GE. Sanders fans have had plenty of stories and threads about their behavior. However, Hillary GAF/Poligaf is quite bad as well. The amount of condescension the entire election cycle from them has been ridiculous. Every positive Bernie thread always has been flooded with drive by "He's never going to win" shit posts. Especially when their biggest sources they cited were 538/Nate Silver which ended up being wrong about a lot of things this election cycle. There has been a significant amount of double standards and moving the goal post when it comes to Clinton supporters. I don't see any way of Sanders winning the primary nor did I ever really think he could. With that said he has also surpassed both long term and short term predictions from Hillary supporters, the media and the establishment. This primary was a lot closer than expected but Hillary ran a better campaign. I think in large part her winning this primary has to do with Clinton, her supporters, the media and the establishment running a successful message that no matter what Bernie is never going to win.
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