The share gain was pretty insane for just one thing. Wii/DS share gains made perfect sense since they were making $10 billion profit a year, this one was far too quick. Just investors being dumb I guess.
I don't trust Mr Macquarie Securities analyst though. It looks like he's just taken 30% off for Apple/Google, assumed 50/50 Niantic/Pokemon Company, then divided by three-ish for Nintendo's stake in the Pokemon company.
Through in reality they also part own Creatures Inc, have a stake in Niantic (who I highly doubt get 50% of the revenue anyway), and are the sole owners of all Pokemon trademarks. The game's revenue isn't that high to massively impact Nintendo (even if they got all of it and it's sustained it would only add like maybe 25% to their total), but no way they get only 13% of effective financial impact.