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[darkrage6]

Where am I using ad hominems not statements people have made?

e:


No, he uses an example of a local stores shipment numbers as 'proof', but that is somehwat meaningless without knowing what numbers are involved in total.
Target has ~2000 locations, so 5 units per store is 10,000 units shipped to one retailer in one country.
Is that a lot? Is that deliberately few? How do other System on a chip retro console sell?

Seems like a huge hole where data should be to jump to that conclusion, especially after asserting that factually it makes no sense.

You claimed Jim was advocating piracy when he was not.

 

[Skittzo0413]

The point is to whip up the Nintendo brand into public perception that it's sought after for the incoming Switch launch, to recreate the Wii frenzy. The whole "it's dumb to limit NES supply because they don't make as much money than if they'd meet demand" is irrelevant because the point of the NES classic is to drum up the incoming real money-maker.


Public perception for the actual console release in a few months. The NES classic is a 20$ sacrificial goat to the marketing and brand gods.

I remember reading here from someone at least somewhat in the know that NoA pitched the NES Classic idea to NCL, who begrudgingly accepted it as a decent plan. I very much doubt this has anything to do with the Switch launch.

It's far more likely that Nintendo is well aware that it has nothing but Pokemon (and Mario Maker 3DS, but that's nothing next to Pokemon) for the holidays and wanted to find some sort of one-off product they could utilize to make up for the lost demand of their core products. Nintendo, like most videogame companies, relies very heavily on their holiday revenue to fund their other ventures throughout the year. So the NES Classic appears to me as much more of a stop-gap cash grab than any sort of grand scheme involving the brand and the Switch.

But I admit I could be wrong about that.

 

[darkrage6]

Don't you see. Thats the genius of their plan. By not delivering enough units to market, thus losing sales they somehow manage to profit...


Honestly, anyone who even for a second stops to think about this planned scarcity conspiracy would see how stupid that is from a business perspective. Especially for a one off item like the NES mini.

It's not "stupid", it drives up demand and ensures the next shipment will sell out ASAP, it's not a difficult concept to grasp.

 

[r3ddvil]

You are crazy if you think artificial demand is a myth. It exists, it's always existed, and this is a blatantly obvious case of it.

The NES mini selling out instantly makes it a "must have" toy for Christmas. You bet your ass moms are going to line up outside wal mart they say they get a new shipment in order to get the hottest toy of the holiday for little jimmy. Wouldn't have been the case if it was just in stock like normal.

I don't think it's little Jimmy begging for this from Santa, more like adult Jim.

Nintendo underestimated NES Classic, Amiibos and Wii, overestimated the 3DS and WiiU. PS2 and PS4 were difficult to get initially, iPhones are often impossible to get at launch, I'm not sure this is the work of grand conspiracy and the illuminatti....its always easy to monday morning quarterback though.

Considering this is likely a novelty one off, in the sense that it wont have years of support to build its sales over time, I doubt nintendo wants to lose its potential sales this quarter. It's not like they are building a platform for long term revenue. It's more like a tickle me elmo 2016 (i think i dated myself there....) - gotta sell em while they're hot!

 

[Kyzer]

It's certainly better then any of your rebuttals. Which largely boil down to "i'm right and anyone who disagrees with me in spite of factual evidence is wrong!"

If saying there should be evidence and explaining how nonsensical it is to jump to the conclusion that nintendo is hurting their bottom line intentionally in exchange for brownies is "im right and anyone who disagrees with me is wrong", then im not sure what he could say.

 

[Hermii]

It's not "stupid", it drives up demand and ensures the next shipment will sell out ASAP, it's not a difficult concept to grasp.

For an item that is the perfect christmas present and most likely just a fad, I would say its stupid. I dont think people will be as interested in January.

 

[Marty Chinn]

I know this is anecdotal but I was watching stock of the NES Classic and the Limited Mario 3DS in the Bay Area at Target. For the NES Classic, most stores got at least 20 units. Several got 30 to 40 units. For the 3DS, most stores hot about 60 to 80 units with a varying 3:1 or 2:1 ratio depending on the store of black to white units. White sold out quicker because it was stocked less and not because people didn't want black systems like I saw some people speculating.

Conversely, the PS4 Pro had way less units shipped in the range of most stores getting well less than 10 units and it was still easy to get one of those the next day. Yet people attribute Sony as being able to produce supply of a product where as Nintendo can't.

Those numbers don't shout to me poorly stocked but rather demand simply out stripping supply.

 

[Louis Cyphre]

If Nintendo could short supply the new Mario ios game they would.

 

[SpiceMelange]

"Buzz" is not worth losing out on profits. At least not so "duh they did it for the buzz" as some are saying... Meeting demand would not mean there is no buzz, it would also create buzz... Arguably more than an artifical scarcity ever could

Arguable, especially when the thing you're limiting is a dead-end system-on-chip that brings no additional revenues, in exchange for marketing hype toward the real money-maker, an actual console with long-term revenue from the attach rate. If Nintendo can recreate the Wii launch frenzy, that's worth more than any additional NES classic they could have sold.

 

[darkrage6]

I don't have an argument about what he's saying. He's right. That doesn't change the fact that his persona is embarrassingly cringe inducing.

Your posts are embarrassingly cringe-inducing.

 

[Kthulhu]

How will this product have any sort of demand after Christmas?

This is where the artificial scarcity myth falls apart in my mind. What the hell is the purpose of artificial scarcity if they're incapable of resupplying quickly enough to capitalize on the newly increased demand?

Isn't it far more likely that they just underproduced units in order to spend less on R&D?

Nice argument



How does that work here? Nintendo doesnt sell it at a higher price... They arent selling while theyre sold out...and its actually conpletely logical to manufacture conservatively, especially when Nintendo is so doomed all the time. If this were a reality in which its traditional for companies to overproduce and undersell intentionally, it would make sense that artificial scarcity is the only explanation. But thats not how it works. They were conaervative, it didnt meet demand....???.... Nintendo is doing it on purpose.
Theres a leap in logic that requires huge assumptions

The point is they are creating artificial demand. I was far less likely to buy the classic when I thought it was abundant, but now that it's hard to find I desire it more. That is the strategy and it works, the problem is it also creates scalpers. Wether it's diamonds or shoes or videogames, the perception of rarity creates desire in people.

 

[Kyzer]

Do people not understand you cant just have a gut feeling and a hypothetical motive and go around calling everyone who disagrees a fanboy? Thats a textbook conspiracy theory

 

[rackham]

Man. There's a lot of suckers in here. They keep saying manufactured scarcity isn't real when it's been proven to be a genuine marketing tactic AND no one is giving a reason for lack of pre orders. Don't let your love for Nintendo make you a sucker

 

[Kyzer]

The point is they are creating artificial demand. I was far less likely to buy the classic when I thought it was abundant, but now that it's hard to find I desire it more. That is the strategy and it works, the problem is it also creates scalpers. Wether it's diamonds or shoes or videogames, the perception of rarity creates desire in people.

Ok but do you not see how thats a terrible business decision considering nintendo misses out on profits and on the biggest shoppibg season of the year?

 

[Kthulhu]

Do people not understand you cant just have a gut feeling and a hypothetical motive and go around calling everyone who disagrees a fanboy? Thats a textbook conspiracy theory

It isn't a gut feeling. This is a pattern of which we can draw one of two conclusions from.

 

[Raziel]

edit:


Totally disagree about the $99 3DS. There's a ready and widely available alternative for that: a full priced model. Nintendo doesn't owe anyone a bargain.

You disagree that the $99 3DS (on the back of a surging pair of Pokémon games) would have done well this holiday? Huh. Alright.

 

[Mitsurux]

I think this is a case where pre-ordering could have benefited both parties (Customers and Nintendo), but since for whatever reason that was not an option in this case (Which to me is the bigger question), we get this scenario where distribution is all over the place (Stores getting under 10 units each,etc)

 

[Skittzo0413]

The point is they are creating artificial demand. I was far less likely to buy the classic when I thought it was abundant, but now that it's hard to find I desire it more. That is the strategy and it works, the problem is it also creates scalpers. Wether it's diamonds or shoes or videogames, the perception of rarity creates desire in people.

My argument is that they are intentionally underproducing the products for the express purpose of spending less money and being more conservative with their money and estimates. Artificial demand is a side effect of underproduction.

It makes no sense for them to intentionally create this artificial demand if they have no way to immediately capitalize on it. Stores would have been flooded with NES Classics on black Friday if that was their plan. Clearly it is not.


Edit:

Do people not understand you cant just have a gut feeling and a hypothetical motive and go around calling everyone who disagrees a fanboy? Thats a textbook conspiracy theory

I'm pretty sure this is why Trump won. Feelings are worth more than facts and evidence now apparently.

 

[Kyzer]

Man. There's a lot of suckers in here. They keep saying manufactured scarcity isn't real when it's been proven to be a genuine marketing tactic AND no one is giving a reason for lack of pre orders. Don't let your love for Nintendo make you a sucker

Ok im open to believing. Please prove to me that youre the one being logical and objective. Youre calling us suckers and relegating all our explanations of how busines works to being fanboys. So you must have some evidencd or facts to back it up. Show us. I dont wanna be a sucker

 

[Oregano]

The fact that Nintendo shipped 10 million copies of Sun and Moon day one indicates to me that they're not intentionally shipping less than they could.

Now whether or not they are too conservative is a different question.

 

[truly101]

Here's an excerpt from Game Over by David Sheff:

"Long before any talk about movies was in the offices of Nintendo, Peter Main had told Arakawa that he felt it wise to market video games like movies- released cautiously, rationed so that demand outpaced availability and then withdrawn from circulation as soon as interest began to wane. This rationing tactic, treating games like priceless objects worked. After all the hype about a new game took hold, kids dragged their parents to stores, but outlets couldn't keep the games in stock. The rush to get games such as Super Mario Brothers 3 or Link the sequel to The Legend of Zelda caused near riots of excited game buying
The competition to acquire games rivaled that for tickets to Michael Jackson's last concert tour. Ultimately more product was sold. A kid who was absolutely dying to get Link would arrive at a store, only to find it sold out. Maybe he would try a few other stores without success but then he would buy another Nintendo game, so his parents would end up paying $30 $40 or $50 for a second or third choice. Then a week or month later, a new supply of Link would come in. The kid wanted Link more than ever then, and unless his were the most iron-willed of parents, they would succumb. Even kids whose parents held out still managed to get games, in a survey what kids in Sandwch Illinois bought with their allowances and other money they earned, the near unanimous choice was Nintendo games.
The editor of one toy industry journal noted that "Nintendo has become a name like Disney or McDonald's. They've done it by doling out games like Godiva chocolates." In 1988, Fortune observed that "so far the strategy looks like a winner.""


While 1989 isn't 100% analogous to today, nothing has really changed. Nintendo still knows how to leverage scarcity to their advantage when it comes to negotiating payment terms, shelf space, promotions, everything. And nobody here shouldn't be surprised to see Nintendo flex its muscle with the NES classic for the upcoming Switch launch. They absolutely will do it, as they have in the past, and the Switch carries built in demand of its own.

 

[Papacheeks]

Nonsense. There's been a bunch of hype in the last few weeks, and you may be right that the Switch announcement had something to do with that, but in the timescales of industrial production and supply the hype came far too late to have an impact on Day 1 numbers.

Having a hard time getting a solid metric, but for example here's a GAF thread about whether to pre-order the NES classic which barely scraped over 50 posts.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1253433
Of course, there are a few gaffers there accurately predicting constrained supply, but given the thread title you'd have expected a much bigger thread if there was a lot of demand that early on.

GAF does not represent the masses there bud. GAF is seriously the hardcore of hardcore gamers who talk video games.


Media outlets like The verge had like 178 comments of people wanting this thing back in July.

Arstechnica has over 300 reply's of most people wanting this, my facebook feed was buzzing like crazy of all my family and friends that saw this thing on some site back this summer and asked me about it.


It was known, and people wanted it then and then it got crazier after switch reveal. They had plenty of time to meet demands but did not want to do preorders for it which made 0 sense.

 

[Professor Beef]

Man. There's a lot of suckers in here. They keep saying manufactured scarcity isn't real when it's been proven to be a genuine marketing tactic AND no one is giving a reason for lack of pre orders. Don't let your love for Nintendo make you a sucker

yeah nintendo sure is making a bunch of money by not selling anything

 

[Kyzer]

It isn't a gut feeling. This is a pattern of which we can draw one of two conclusions from.

Ok list it out.

Im tired of the cycle. Just shut us up now. Lay out the info and show us what were missing, since it must be objectively evident in some way we are not seeing.


Are you absolutely sure youre not just believing a random thing that COULD be true because of your feelings on the matter? Because from where i stand its a tremendous leap in logic for no reason other than it could be true.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Never assume a conspiracy when simple incompetence explains the situation just as well. Being bad at estimating demand, being cheap about warehouse space and being terrified of unsold inventory explain Nintendo's ability to not meet launch demand just as easily as artificial scarcity to drive up demand.

Pretty much this. Nintendo has overproduced plenty of things in the past too (see the Wii U, and 3DS sales until recently, were languishing in the West), so it's not that surprising that Nintendo might be overly conservative. Like others said, I think it's intentional, but it's more incompetence. Sony & Microsoft oftentimes will overproduce and then deal with the consequences of unsold stock by buying it back. Nintendo hates unsold stock, so they'd rather undersell it seems like.

 

[LordRaptor]

You are such a Nintendo fanboy it's pathetic.

Is your intention to persuade me with eloquent appeal to reason why I am wrong and change my mind (as you keep saying "despite all the evidence"), or just to stifle dissenting opinions by throwing the fanboy card willy-nilly and hound any nay-sayers out of the topic entirely?

Because if its the former, you're doing it wrong.

 

[Anth0ny]

"Buzz" is not worth losing out on profits. At least not so "duh they did it for the buzz" as some are saying... Meeting demand would not mean there is no buzz, it would also create buzz... Arguably more than an artifical scarcity ever could

What if they release a couple more shipments here and there over the next couple of months, then stop until NES Classic 2 is released next holiday? Or two holidays from now?

That's where the buzz comes into play. Again, Nike and Adidas sell their biggest releases of the year that way. Of course you have your Pokemon (common adidas or Nike) that is stocked normally and makes you a boat load of money. But the NES Classic (hyped Air Jordan shoe)? Not everyone who wants one is gonna get one. Better luck next time they drop in 6 months.

Nintendo's brands are strong enough that they can pull something like that. Kinda like the Disney vault on crack.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Nintendo just needed to look at the number of Facebook shares upon announcement to know it would be huge among casuals.

This is the metric I'm hoping to use for my future hit product: cancer baby without arms who needs a Like.

 

[Kthulhu]

Ok list it out.

Im tired of the cycle. Just shut us up now. Lay out the info and show us what were missing, since it must be objectively evident in some way we are not seeing.


Are you absolutely sure youre not just believing a random thing that COULD be true because of your feelings on the matter? Because from where i stand its a tremendous leap in logic for no reason other than it could be true.

Nintendo is either restricting supply to increase demand, or are being stupid.

If they are being stupid, then they would have to have been stupid for decades which I find hard to believe.

Nintendo has not stated that their supply chain is inadequate or their manufacturers are. So I am going to assume this is an intentional decision based on past success.

If it is a result of stupidity, it would certainly explain a lot about why Nintendo is in its current state.

 

[LordRaptor]

then stop until NES Classic 2 is released next holiday? Or two holidays from now?

This would be plausible, but what would go into a NES Classic 2?
All those top-tier titles that just missed the first one, like Urban Champion?

 

[darkrage6]

You seem to be ignoring most of the points being made against artificial scarcity. Has it crossed your mind that maybe they sent 5 units to one store because that's all the stock they could allot to that store? Because maybe they are extremely conservative in production of a product, since they are very risk-averse?

No one here is trolling- we are trying to understand and explain how production and shipping works, and how intentional artificial scarcity does not benefit Nintendo when they have no means to quickly resupply a product. Which they have shown in this case to not have. Otherwise stores would have been flooded with NES Classics on black Friday.

What happened here is a combination of extremely conservative production and woefully underestimating demand. I won't defend Nintendo for doing that because it sucks for consumers, especially when scalpers come into the situation. But debunking this artificial scarcity myth is in no way being a "Nintendo fanboy" or "blindly defending" the company.

Has it crossed your mind that just maybe Nintendo is incompetent? They can ship millions of copies of Sun and Moon but can only spare a few NES minis? Yeah i'm calling bullshit on the "that's all they can afford to ship" argument.

I've seen lots of fanboyism for Nintendo on here disguised as trying to be "objective".

 

[Pyrrhus]

Why is he dressed as a Nazi?

Black & red = nazi... gotcha

The black clothing, dictating from a podium, and the Nazi-esque flag behind him is a pretty big indicator.

Well, yes, it is referencing the Nazis. Fascism has long been associated with that color combo, the Nazis chief among them. But it's an oblique reference to V for Vendetta, I think. The government mouthpiece in that dresses in a black and red tailored suit to drive home how fascist the British government in that story is.

As for Jim Sterling, it's tongue-in-cheek about his actual importance and authority, like his catchphrase, "Thank God for me." Sterling himself has pretty across the board liberal politics these days, if you're worried.

 

[Kyzer]

What if they release a couple more shipments here and there over the next couple of months, then stop until NES Classic 2 is released next holiday? Or two holidays from now?

That's where the buzz comes into play. Again, Nike and Adidas sell their biggest releases of the year that way. Of course you have your Pokemon (common adidas or Nike) that is stocked normally and makes you a boat load of money. But the NES Classic (hyped Air Jordan shoe)? Not everyone who wants one is gonna get one. Better luck next time they drop in 6 months.

Nintendo's brands are strong enough that they can pull something like that. Kinda like the Disney vault on crack.

Yeah I get it for sure, i see how it could be true, problem is i dont see how thats logical or more likely to be true than them just not meeting demand for regular reasons, especially since its nintendo. I mean are they doomed and headed for third party or are they doing so well they should be meeting demand and projecting high sales? Its actually neither... And thats not to mention the fact that nintendo has literally always been a conservative company in just about every way possible and so it fits exactly with everything we know about them. Its not something that needs a conspiracy to explain.

 

[Jotaka]

This to me is the epitome of manchild behavior because at the end of day, the nintendo NES classic it's just a fucking toy.

 

[Kyzer]

Nintendo is either restricting supply to increase demand, or are being stupid.

If they are being stupid, then they would have to have been stupid for decades which I find hard to believe.

Nintendo has not stated that their supply chain is inadequate or their manufacturers are. So I am going to assume this is an intentional decision based on past success.

If it is a result of stupidity, it would certainly explain a lot about why Nintendo is in its current state.

Or.....they projected lower sales?

And have not done well in the past to greenlight overzealous production?

And are nintendo who have always always always been conservative?

 

[darkrage6]

Neither of those are about a person, they are both literally addressing the thing that person has said. Look, I'm actually quoting the thing that was said and directly referring to it.

Not going "All you've done is troll post! Here's a picture of a kettle!"

e:


What's the trickle down product for a NES mini?

No, you're just talking nonsense.

 

[darkrage6]

A lot of the people citing the artificial scarcity myth are saying that Nintendo has produced many more units than they are shipping in order to drive up demand, and thereafter ship more of the units they have just sitting around to make bank.

Intentionally under-producing is a completely different story with a completely different motivation.

It's not a myth.

 

[Kthulhu]

Or.....they projected lower sales?

That ties into stupidity, which I don't believe. Amazon and GameStop knew it'd sell great. You're telling me they somehow knew but Nintendo didn't? And how does that explain them not fulfilling orders to places like Target?

 

[Pyrrhus]

This to me is the epitome of manchild behavior because at the end of day, the nintendo NES classic it's just a fucking toy.

My sister's family has had a rough year, so I wanted to buy them this to try to perk them up a bit. It's not just about acquiring these things for one's self.

 

[darkrage6]

....Isn't it up to the retailer to order a certain amount to sell?

I highly doubt Jim's local Target only ordered five of them.

 

[Anth0ny]

This would be plausible, but what would go into a NES Classic 2?
All those top-tier titles that just missed the first one, like Urban Champion?

I'd imagine 15 classic games stay the same (your Marios, Zeldas, Megamans) and then 15 games that weren't on the first NES Classic. Gives incentive to double dip, but also attractive for someone who never owned the first one.

 

[Kthulhu]

This to me is the epitome of manchild behavior because at the end of day, the nintendo NES classic it's just a fucking toy.

It's no more a toy than any other console or plug and play.

 

[Kyzer]

That ties into stupidity, which I don't believe. Amazon and GameStop knew it'd sell great. You're telling me they somehow knew but Nintendo didn't? And how does that explain them not fulfilling orders to places like Target?

When you say gamestop and amazon "knew" itd sell great, what are you talking about? They had projections of sales?

 

[Skittzo0413]

Has it crossed your mind that just maybe Nintendo is incompetent? They can ship millions of copies of Sun and Moon but can only spare a few NES minis? Yeah i'm calling bullshit on the "that's all they can afford to ship" argument.

I've seen lots of fanboyism for Nintendo on here disguised as trying to be "objective".

Why is it so hard to believe that in this instance- anticipating demand- Nintendo is incompetent, yet when people talk about the Wii U that word incompetent is thrown around every other sentence?

Also they "spare a few NES minis" to a single store, versus shipping 10 million copies of Sun and Moon worldwide. That's a very ridiculous comparison. Not to mention producing hardware is much, much more costly and time consuming than producing software on a game card.

Anyway, I love that you find my annoyance towards Nintendo's conservative management and poor projections as "Nintendo fanboyism" because that makes it easy for me to ignore you in the future.

 

[LordRaptor]

I'd imagine 15 classic games stay the same (your Marios, Zeldas, Megamans) and then 15 games that weren't on the first NES Classic. Gives incentive to double dip, but also attractive for someone who never owned the first one.

I guess.
I mean, to my mind its a "NES greatest hits" aimed squarely at the nostalgia market, and any "sequel" product (that is also NES based) would have a vastly reduced appeal, but I can't state that as an absolute fact or anything.

 

[Lashley]

Yep, Nintendo have done this shit for a while.

Such a stupid thing to do too.

 

[Kyzer]

Has it crossed your mind that just maybe Nintendo is incompetent? They can ship millions of copies of Sun and Moon but can only spare a few NES minis? Yeah i'm calling bullshit on the "that's all they can afford to ship" argument.

I've seen lots of fanboyism for Nintendo on here disguised as trying to be "objective".

How are we fanboys? Tell us please. Expose how our attempts at being objective are actually just motivated by a blind love in a game company.

Meanwhile you are making claims with no evidence and the people arguing with you are fanboys?

You know what?

I think youre just a fanboy of scarcity theories! You scarcity fanboy

 

[Madness]

Not going to watch but people need to let go of the manufactured scarcity myth.

No one is doing this on purpose in 2016, there are a number of other complex factors that affect supply and demand. Failure to meet demand costs money and the 'free marketing' it gets is not worth loss of sales.

People just do not understand Nintendo has a fraction of the production, manufacturing and shipping that companies like Apple, Samsung Microsoft or Sony have. No company wants 10 customers happy and 100 customers waiting.

 

[Mr. Giggles]

I agree with jim.

Although I wouldn't use such cutting language.

I was ready to buy a couple of the classic minis but I didn't pre-order and now I can't get them unless I stalk weekly shipments at my Best Buy

Fuck. That.

 

[Kthulhu]

When you say gamestop and amazon "knew" itd sell great, what are you talking about? They had projections of sales?

When they orderd more units then they got like Target in the video. It's sounds like they knew. Jim's Target isn't the only place I've heard stories like that from, so I assume it's happening to everyone.