Okay, I'm home.
Quick list of where I think everyone sits, then a tiny bit of explanation. I will absolutely be here to vote on a lynch target tomorrow (real time, not game time), but I want more time to dwell. At the moment, I'm leaning toward Vanguard but I want to sleep on it.
Town:
Flatearthpandas
Leaning town:
exmachina64
Natiko
Verelios
Null:
Matt Attack
PK Gaming
WAMD
Leaning Scum:
11037
franconp
Hyperactivity
StarSketch
BlackBuzzard
Scum:
II-Vanguard-II
Zippedpinhead
With both Zipped, the main issue I have is that he seems to be posting just enough to get by. There don't seem to be many revelations in his posts, and his activity level is just enough to (mostly) escape suspicion.
Hyper is interesting. I notice he's become the latest hot topic of discussion, but I'd like to point out (so I'm not accused of bandwagoning) that
I've been on him for a bit. He came in as a replacement and was immediately very active, as if to try and counteract the heat that Rats Off To Ya was getting for not participating enough. He immediately wanted to steer narratives and has now suddenly gone quiet. However, I do understand the pull of real life responsibilities, so I can't necessarily hold that against him. Also, he was
among the first to call out Exodu5 as scummy, but it's entirely possible scum had decided to bus Exodu5 after he slipped up and used the term "bus," thus giving away his scum role (which, if true, weakens my position on FEP slightly, due to the fact that my position for him as a townie rests almost completely on his being the first vote cast against Exodu5...).
Star rubs me the wrong way, but I'm halfway to throwing up my hands and sticking her in null. She's quiet, for the most part, but nothing huge really stands out to me as super scummy. If you remove her pre-game fuck up (which I've stopped considering as a clue, because how would anyone be that dumb), the only thing that really sticks out to me is the fact that she's still alive after claiming a power role.
Her defense for why she's still alive basically boils down to "I'm too bad at the game to want to kill." Sorry, but that doesn't hold water for me. As a wise old saying
goes: "A foolish person with a gun is more dangerous than a wise man with an empty hand." What I'm saying is, no matter how bad you claim to be at the game, why would scum risk leaving a
known powered up townie alive?
And her quote
here after Night Two ended has an eerily similar tone to Style's post
here after Night One ended, in that both seem resigned to their fate after realizing they were under the spotlight, and each pointing out how
nobody believes them anyway so whatever (with Style writing his excuses out in several posts, and Star doing it in one). Star even goes on in the post linked above to (weakly) attempt to cast shade on anyone questioning her by saying:
Heck if i were scum, I'd be pushing as hard as possible to get the scumiest looking townie killed...hmmmmmm.
What? I mean, yeah, that's possible. But it's just as easy to say "If I were scum, I'd try to throw shit back at anyone pointing the finger at me," which is what Star was doing. She does the same weird finger-pointing
here, where she uses the "you'll look like scum when it's proved I'm town, so best not lynch me" defense. As if town doesn't accidentally lynch town sometimes. I think I get what she meant, but the sentiment struck me as odd.
I'd say if she survives night three, she's scum, because her power seems to be one that becomes all the more useful the longer she's left alive.
Franconp has moved from town, to null, to (very) slight scum for me. Mostly because of two things: How argumentative he is when voted for (he
seemed upset when I RNG'd him way back in the beginning and then
just did it again to Zippedpinhead), and because of his
"magic night gravy" story. Something about it doesn't add up. I've been trying to figure out what, and I think the problem is the 2 HP claim.
He says that he got the gravy and once he used it, he received a message that it restored 2 HP after a run in with scum. I get that the use of HP is flavor, but doesn't idea that he had 2 HP restored after a scum attack imply he was targeted to be killed but the spooky gravy saved his life? If so, who tried to kill him? If scum, then who killed Flux?
It's not that I don't trust franconp, but that story leaves more questions than it answers, so by default, I have to view him as less than trustworthy until things get cleared up.
Vanguard kinda stinks like scum right now. I know he's also an easy pick, but maybe it's because the smell is just that strong. Inactivity isn't really the issue here. Instead, it's the odd posts, like
this one, where he tries to throw scum at Natiko for Natiko insisting we not rush our lynch of Style (as if it's a bad thing to be deliberate in our discussions and voting...and this is coming from me, who wanted Style lynched the moment Day Two started).
Compounding that is his attempt to
defend himself as town by saying
his RNG vote against Style at the beginning of Day One is somehow proof that he really wanted Style lynched.
Also,
this little blurb from Style to Vanguard (when pressed by Vanguard to explain why Style was calling him scum) always read a little off to me, and I've finally figured out why:
Sure it's fueled by OMGUS, but I still don't like how you low key started a RNG vote and then did basically nothing for the rest of the day. Is it a bad read? Sure, my reads are horrible.
How strong does that quote make you feel about Style's certainty of Vanguard's guilt? To me, it doesn't work at all. He hounds a man and calls him scum, then basically says "but nobody should listen to me and actually vote for Vanguard because my reads are the worst anyone has ever had and should never be taken seriously." It reads to me like staged fighting; like two people who aren't really enemies having a fake argument while winking at each other.
As I write this, I'm realizing more and more that I'm probably going to be voting Vanguard. I'll wait till I wake up to be sure, but I can't see any compelling reason not to.
Of course, if someone wants to persuade me to change my mind, please do so. I'm open to any and all discussion.
