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[SneakersSO]

I do also think they clearly need more funding, and the Xbox One's initial troubles is still haunting them. It's hard to make the hardware desirable after that initial impression, so they had to really focus on the software. I just frankly don't think they've made anything that made me go "wow" this gen.

Sea of Thieves sounds pretty cool, but the messaging around it is confusing so far. As someone who WANTS to be interested in the game, it's basically my imagination doing the work and making me think it could be cool. The only concrete thing that makes me "excited" is that it's a Rare game about pirates. We don't concretely know much else about the game, which reminds me of the No Man's Sky problem without the huge promises and hype cycle to carry it.

I actually don't think the specter of the X1's launch is still haunting them directly. X1 S took off, the Gears & Halo audiences did show, albeit in noticeably smaller numbers, but those series were hitting downward trends anyway. In NA & UK, the X1 doesn't really have a perception problem anymore. Maybe on boards like GAF & whatnot, but that is what its. MS turned it around in a big way and its reflected in the sustained demand for the product in the only markets the brand was only really relative in anyway.

The Xbox division has a whole host of problems that currently plague them. We can go over each & every one of them in depth here, but the X1 launch would be a drop in that discussion bucket. A big drop, to be sure, but the problems it faces now are way bigger.

 

[see5harp]

As long as they allow people to things solo in some capacity, I don't think it'll be bad. It has to be more interested than The Division though. If it's just scaled down enemies like The Division, no thank you.

 

[Samurai G0SU]

i expect a big presence for sea of thieves at e3.

I just can't wait till i become selected to participate in the Alpha. >=D .. just waiting...

 

[Steverulez]

I have been reading your tweets, I know you are a Xbox fan, you say a lot of good stuff, I definitely share your opinions.

Thanks, much appreciated! I try my best, think there are some very obvious glaring issues staring them in the face they just ignore and have been a while. Lots of people seem to be coming round to that idea and now Phil is getting hammered over it, oh well.

 

[Ricerocket]

It's hard to tell since we don't know how much Halo 5 sold but if I'm guessing maybe 4-5M after a year?

I can see that for SOT (if it's actually good and not evolve 2.0)

Risky prediction but I can see it, Halo 5 dropped off twitch etc fast whereas I think SOT will stay around for a long time, plus it's on PC this time aswell

* Assuming the game is actually good

PC as in a PC or a W10 anniversary edition only PC?

Still have doubts it will blow up considering all I've seen is that the only way to enjoy it is when your friends are online and willing to play it. It doesn't seem like the game to play with randoms as we know trolls will fuck you over due to loot (treasure) system where you can lose it. You're also gimped playing solo as well and we don't know what else they can do but they have a smaller ship.

 

[tiredheadcrab]

I believe they did say it would be played solo. But they need to show the pve stuff. That is a big selling point on destiny. They have it there but don't talk about it.

 

[Humdinger]

I fully see 'games-as-a-service' to be the driving direction for the platform and creep into the last couple major, internal first party IP they have like Halo and Gears. In my opinion I expect a heavy focus on the 'sports' scene.

Bleh.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

since this turned into the official Phil twitter thread:

this tweet is interesting just as much for what it doesn't say as for what it says

 

[Chris1]

PC as in a PC or a W10 anniversary edition only PC?

Still have doubts it will blow up considering all I've seen is that the only way to enjoy it is when your friends are online and willing to play it. It doesn't seem like the game to play with randoms as we know trolls will fuck you over due to loot (treasure) system where you can lose it. You're also gimped playing solo as well and we don't know what else they can do but they have a smaller ship.

W10, but I think if the game is good enough people will use it and the W10 store should hopefully have fixed a lot of issues with it. Remember Minecraft isn't on Steam or anything on PC either.

I'm banking heavily on it being huge on twitch and staying around the top games for a long time though, which I honestly think it will. The e3 trailer didn't do anything for me either, but people who played it at E3 liked it so..

 

[Kssio_Aug]

since this turned into the official Phil twitter thread:

this tweet is interesting just as much for what it doesn't say as for what it says

Yeah, that was very evasive.

 

[onemanasylum]

since this turned into the official Phil twitter thread:

this tweet is interesting just as much for what it doesn't say as for what it says

Talk about ignoring the question. Can't expect Phil to say "We are on thin ice" on twitter though lol.

 

[EmiPrime]

I think it'll probably be the best selling xbox exclusive this gen (at least so far), that's why I said massive but I guess the numbers on it's own isn't massive

It won't get anywhere close to Halo 5.

There were layoffs at Rare after Kinect Sports Rivals flopped, I would be more worried about SOT also being a flop and Rare getting another, much bigger round of layoffs and a restructuring than I would be optimistic of SOT's success. The longer they go without showing a proper gameplay loop with quests and PVE melee combat the less likely it seems to me that it will be released this year.

I don't know how much should be read into this but SOT isn't even in the top 100 for just Xbox One stuff on Amazon UK (best sellers and wished for).

 

[Chris1]

It won't get anywhere close to Halo 5.

There were layoffs at Rare after Kinect Sports Rivals flopped, I would be more worried about SOT also being a flop and Rare getting another, much bigger round of layoffs and a restructuring than I would be optimistic of SOT's success. The longer they go without showing a proper gameplay loop with quests and PVE melee combat the less likely it seems to me that it will be released this year.

I don't know how much should be read into this but SOT isn't even in the top 100 for just Xbox One stuff on Amazon UK (best sellers and wished for).

Neither was Division until the beta. I've said for a long time SOT will be the next division, nobody caring about it until they actually play it then it blows up.


(Ok I honestly don't know if it was, but nobody gave a shit about it until the beta happened)

Edit: Division wasn't in the top 100 for 2015, but #23 for xb1 in 2016. And that game shit the bed after the first month, where I think SOT won't

 

[DriftingSpirit]

since this turned into the official Phil twitter thread:

this tweet is interesting just as much for what it doesn't say as for what it says

Well, they have moved to more of an 'engagement' method in determining success. So....yeah.

 

[CCIE]

Sea of Thieves looks like a much more charming Destiny type of game. It will appeal to that crowd, which means it probably won't bomb. Unless gamers are sick of those games.

I have no idea, because I personally don't have time for them.

 

[Angel_DvA]

The problem I have with Phil tweeter right now, it's that everything I read from it looks like : Blah Blah blah... actions speaks more than words, he should know, waiting for E3 to see what's next for Xbox.

 

[AAMARMO]

since this turned into the official Phil twitter thread:

this tweet is interesting just as much for what it doesn't say as for what it says

 

[EmiPrime]

Neither was Division until the beta. I've said for a long time SOT will be the next division, nobody caring about it until they actually play it then it blows up.


(Ok I honestly don't know if it was, but nobody gave a shit about it until the beta happened)

There was a ton of buzz around The Division from announce to release...

 

[digoutyoursoul]

I actually don't think the specter of the X1's launch is still haunting them directly. X1 S took off, the Gears & Halo audiences did show, albeit in noticeably smaller numbers, but those series were hitting downward trends anyway. In NA & UK, the X1 doesn't really have a perception problem anymore. Maybe on boards like GAF & whatnot, but that is what its. MS turned it around in a big way and its reflected in the sustained demand for the product in the only markets the brand was only really relative in anyway.

The Xbox division has a whole host of problems that currently plague them. We can go over each & every one of them in depth here, but the X1 launch would be a drop in that discussion bucket. A big drop, to be sure, but the problems it faces now are way bigger.

This is what stands out to me, you have said the likes of halo & gears are hitting downward trends on more than one occasion. Not disputing it or anything but they will obviously be in a position to know that before anyone, why are they so keen to just keep rolling them out then?

Look at Forza Horizon 3, great reviews, I don't know it's sales but what I do know is that on release it was the third Horizon game in four years. Did the user base really need that many in such a short period though? How long before that series or the Motorsport series go on a downward?

It's like there is no one there in the higher ups to step in and say, from a gaming perspective, we don't want to dilute these IPs too much, sure they have their fan bases but we perhaps should be looking to provide the next IP that gives the brand the next step. Like Halo did for the OG or Gears for 360.

 

[Ricky Ricardo]

One thing is for sure, Microsoft will have a lot of attention for E3. Whether that plays to their advantage is left to be seen however.

 

[Chris1]

There was a ton of buzz around The Division from announce to release...

Only because of him shutting the car door though lol

 

[Kaako]

Sea of Thieves looks like a much more charming Destiny type of game. It will appeal to that crowd, which means it probably won't bomb. Unless gamers are sick of those games.

I have no idea, because I personally don't have time for them.

Let's put it this way: Viva Piñata 2 would've had a much better chance of success. Sadly, I think SoT is going to bomb and bomb hard.

 

[SneakersSO]

Sea of Thieves looks like a much more charming Destiny type of game. It will appeal to that crowd, which means it probably won't bomb. Unless gamers are sick of those games.

I have no idea, because I personally don't have time for them.

You can't just 'appeal' to that crowd though. Part of the problem that a games-as-a-service dominated lineup presents is, those games create fans that are very much into their respective games. These games are designed to keep players engaged for periods of time way longer than before.

So the Destiny player? They're not gonna be playing anything but Destiny. They'll wait for Destiny 2, which is going to come out before SoT anyway. So putting out a service game to appeal to the Destiny crowd (which I don't think it does anyway, just from a pure gameplay perspective) and hoping you get 10-20% of that audience to come over and try it is just pure fantasy.

Not just that, the success of these types of games aren't just measured in initial sales, but in audience retention. The reason why people talk about The Division now as if it bombed is because the audience fell off within 3 months and never went back, even though they've turned that game around now. But at launch, it sold all the copies and had all the players. A games-as-a-service game can't just be considered to have done well if it sells strong out the gate, it has to retain that audience for a long, long amount of time.

 

[digoutyoursoul]

That's precisely why they paid $2 billion for Minecraft. I fully see 'games-as-a-service' to be the driving direction for the platform and creep into the last couple major, internal first party IP they have like Halo and Gears. In my opinion I expect a heavy focus on the 'sports' scene.

And that's why I'm just slowly becoming a little more cynical with platform overall, even though Gears and Halo are two of my favorite series of all time.

Meh. They know best I suppose, it's their business. That sort of stuff isn't for me.

 

[CCIE]

Well, if Sea of Thieves really bombs, I think Rare is in trouble at MS. Therefore, it will do great

 

[Shpeshal Nick]

since this turned into the official Phil twitter thread:

this tweet is interesting just as much for what it doesn't say as for what it says

That reply is even MORE intriguing given his reply to one of my tweets a while back was "I won't play the higher ups card. It's all on me".

 

[Shabad]

In what universe do you live to think Sea of Thieves will be such a success. It has none of the features that made Destiny such a big game. Certainly none one of the most popular game genre (shooter), not such a famous dev (Rare hasn't been a big deal for a looooong time), and - probably more importantly - it will never have the kind of marketing push that Destiny had.

It probably will be much closer to a niche that to a blockbuster.

 

[Henkka]

Wtf is up with Crackdown 3 anyway

If I'm not mistaken, the only things they've shown have been a CG trailer and a demonstration of their destruction tech, which heavily utilised cloud computing...

But I'm not aware of other big Xbox titles banking on cloud computing that much. Is that still a thing? Was it ever a thing?

 

[Jaguar Victory]

Only because of him shutting the car door though lol

Shutting car door was epic. That game had the most compelling pre release trailers I've ever seen. Hopefully with Scorpio we can get those graphics on Division 2.

I've never played The Division and don't really have any intention to in the future either so if that's a reference to something you've lost me!

Don't worry I've got you covered lol

 

[Primethius]

Wtf is up with Crackdown 3 anyway

If I'm not mistaken, the only things they've shown have been a CG trailer and a demonstration of their destruction tech, which heavily utilised cloud computing...

But I'm not aware of other big Xbox titles banking on cloud computing that much. Is that still a thing? Was it ever a thing?

All we know is that it's having some dev issues but nothing out of the ordinary.

 

[EmiPrime]

Only because of him shutting the car door though lol

I've never played The Division and don't really have any intention to in the future either so if that's a reference to something you've lost me!

Edit: Ohhh I think I get it. From that trailer with the actors on voice coms trying to act natural.

 

[SneakersSO]

This is what stands out to me, you have said the likes of halo & gears are hitting downward trends on more than one occasion. Not disputing it or anything but they will obviously be in a position to know that before anyone, why are they so keen to just keep rolling them out then?

Look at Forza Horizon 3, great reviews, I don't know it's sales but what I do know is that on release it was the third Horizon game in four years. Did the user base really need that many in such a short period though? How long before that series or the Motorsport series go on a downward?

It's like there is no one there in the higher ups to step in and say, from a gaming perspective, we don't want to dilute these IPs too much, sure they have their fan bases but we perhaps should be looking to provide the next IP that gives the brand the next step. Like Halo did for the OG or Gears for 360.

I mean, we have the actual figures for Gears 4 & halo 5 and mapping out how down they are in comparison to some of their earlier series successes. Forza & Horizon are sorta outliers in that, a racing game drought is plaguing AAA consoles, and they are the only ones producing those games now, so they are getting a lot more attention. But Horizon 1 & 2 figures weren't great, 3 is way up, but it also deserves it; its easily one of the best games in the Forza series, and that probably helped it attract more users than Forza may typically do.

As for why does the Xbox division seem so keen on continuing both Halo & Gears? I mean, these aren't just IPs & studios you can just abandon. Heck, it can be easily argued that Halo & its audience is the biggest, most stable foundation of the Xbox audience there as, along with Gears. If you take these two out, what audience do you have left to sell to?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

One thing is for sure, Microsoft will have a lot of attention for E3. Whether that plays to their advantage is left to be seen however.

Nintendo (supposedly) coming back, Sony following up a fantastic E3 last year and MS trying to regain some type of traction.

Should be great.

 

[onemanasylum]

In what universe do you live to think Sea of Thieves will be such a success. It has none of the features that made Destiny such a big game. Certainly none one of the most popular game genre (shooter), not such a famous dev (Rare hasn't been a big deal for a looooong time), and - probably more importantly - it will never have the kind of marketing push that Destiny had.

It probably will be much closer to a niche that to a blockbuster.

I think it is a lot of wishful thinking. Same as those people who were saying Gears would be bigger then Halo after Halo 5 was down a lot.

 

[Vinc]

I actually don't think the specter of the X1's launch is still haunting them directly. X1 S took off, the Gears & Halo audiences did show, albeit in noticeably smaller numbers, but those series were hitting downward trends anyway. In NA & UK, the X1 doesn't really have a perception problem anymore. Maybe on boards like GAF & whatnot, but that is what its. MS turned it around in a big way and its reflected in the sustained demand for the product in the only markets the brand was only really relative in anyway.

The Xbox division has a whole host of problems that currently plague them. We can go over each & every one of them in depth here, but the X1 launch would be a drop in that discussion bucket. A big drop, to be sure, but the problems it faces now are way bigger.

Oh at this point I do agree it's no longer much of a direct problem, but it still haunts them in the sense that it injured their momentum from the very beginning.

I really wish them the best, and I'm really looking forward to seeing what happens at the next "turning point" or "reset" moment the industry sees, whether that's a new generation of hardware or something else. I just wonder if they'll be in a position to strike when that time comes. I think what they should be doing now if they do want to strike is building momentum, but they seem to be choosing the path of keeping costs low to stay around for as long as possible until the moment comes. I don't know... we'll see.

 

[watdaeff4]

That reply is even MORE intriguing given his reply to one of my tweets a while back was "I won't play the higher ups card. It's all on me".

I don't know as I don't follow him on Twitter, but since he's been asked at least twice now about it - has it happened numerous times before today? If so, he may just feel like it's a moot point to respond to the same question over and over.

I watch a lot of (American) sports and when coaches get asked the same shit over and over by reporters several eventually decide it's not worth the bother to answer.

All of that said, if Xbox is continuing to bleed money like it's speculating, then yeah after 15 years, it's going to come under scrutiny from above.

 

[Chris1]

I've never played The Division and don't really have any intention to in the future either so if that's a reference to something you've lost me!

The E3 trailer had the main char shut a car door when he went to take cover, and that's pretty much where all the buzz came from. Nothing about the actual game/gameplay but more of a "did you see him shut the car door? That's so cool" thing.

I don't think that many people bought the game based on that, it was the beta that did it IMO and I think the same will happen with Sea of Thieves which will give it a decent launch, and from then twitch streamers etc will carry it forward.

Also based off how other MS games have been doing updates, it'll probably get free monthly updates aswell unlike Division and Destiny which took several months for content updates. I think that will help it.

 

[Kaako]

Well, if Sea of Thieves really bombs, I think Rare is in trouble at MS. Therefore, it will do great

I honestly think Rare will end up on the chopping block if SoT underpeforms in MS eyes. Can't imagine them being any more gutted than they are currently. Here's hoping for the best.

 

[Rymuth]

As for why does the Xbox division seem so keen on continuing both Halo & Gears? I mean, these aren't just IPs & studios you can just abandon. Heck, it can be easily argued that Halo & its audience is the biggest, most stable foundation of the Xbox audience there as, along with Gears. If you take these two out, what audience do you have left to sell to?

Also worth mentioning that they named their Siri equivalent 'Cortana' and their evolved Internet Explorer 'Spartan' - if anything, Halo has become Microsoft's mascot so it'd be behooves them to keep it relevant.

How they handle Gears going forward will be very interesting, tho'

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I honestly think Rare will end up on the chopping block if SoT underpeforms in MS eyes. Can't imagine them being any more gutted than they are currently. Here's hoping for the best.

Yep, I see it coming a mile away. I obviously hope it doesn't happen though.

 

[EmiPrime]

Don't worry I've got you covered lol

Yeah you jogged my memory, thanks!

The E3 trailer had the main char shut a car door when he went to take cover, and that's pretty much where all the buzz came from. Nothing about the actual game/gameplay but more of a "did you see him shut the car door? That's so cool" thing.

I don't think that many people bought the game based on that, it was the beta that did it IMO and I think the same will happen with Sea of Thieves

Aye I edited my post. They definitely need a strong beta. For now however I don't think the optimism is justified. I know I am a broken record but they really need to show off a quest and some of the combat. I don't think the co-op elements they are promoting will hold up in real world testing with randoms either.

 

[krang]

That reply is even MORE intriguing given his reply to one of my tweets a while back was "I won't play the higher ups card. It's all on me".

I think it depends on context. What he was referring to, per your reference, was decision-making about cancelling games etc.

Whether Nadella et al are happy is a separate issue.

 

[shinobi602]

I honestly think Rare will end up on the chopping block if SoT underpeforms in MS eyes. Can't imagine them being any more gutted than they are currently. Here's hoping for the best.

I wish the best for them but it certainly won't be pretty if it underperforms. The studio is basically being built around service driven games now and from what I'm told the project is costing Microsoft a lot.

 

[digoutyoursoul]

I mean, we have the actual figures for Gears 4 & halo 5 and mapping out how down they are in comparison to some of their earlier series successes. Forza & Horizon are sorta outliers in that, a racing game drought is plaguing AAA consoles, and they are the only ones producing those games now, so they are getting a lot more attention. But Horizon 1 & 2 figures weren't great, 3 is way up, but it also deserves it; its easily one of the best games in the Forza series, and that probably helped it attract more users than Forza may typically do.

As for why does the Xbox division seem so keen on continuing both Halo & Gears? I mean, these aren't just IPs & studios you can just abandon. Heck, it can be easily argued that Halo & its audience is the biggest, most stable foundation of the Xbox audience there as, along with Gears. If you take these two out, what audience do you have left to sell to?

I am not saying abandon them two IPs but at least offer something on that scale or try to from one of those two studios that isn't either a Halo or Gears.

Look at Naughty Dog, are they going to be making strictly Uncharteds for the next five years? If the same attitude and strategy was applied to them then gamers wouldn't of got The Last of Us or GG with Killzone & Horizon Zero Dawn.

 

[facetheslayer92]

I wish the best for them but it certainly won't be pretty if it underperforms. They're pouring a lot of money into it.

How much money are we talking?

 

[Jaguar Victory]

I wish the best for them but it certainly won't be pretty if it underperforms. They're pouring a lot of money into it.

I have a feeling they'll bundle it with Scorpio and count on folks trying it, liking it, making in app purchases for cosmetics, in order to build the IP.

I would if I ran the shop.

 

[Electret]

I wish the best for them but it certainly won't be pretty if it underperforms. The studio is basically being built around service driven games now and from what I'm told the project is costing Microsoft a lot.

The corollary here is that Banjo 3, PD 2, and Conker 2 are never happening, not that I needed this post to believe this. Damn shame Rare wasn't bought by someone else all those years ago.

 

[Herola]

Talk about ignoring the question. Can't expect Phil to say "We are on thin ice" on twitter though lol.

It's nit like he would say anything in regards to that matter. I get its the cool thing to rag on MS but it's almost childish that people view everything they do one way and the other companies with such blatant positivity.

 

[Chris1]

Yeah you jogged my memory, thanks!



Aye I edited my post. They definitely need a strong beta. For now however I don't think the optimism is justified. I know I am a broken record but they really need to show off a quest and some of the combat. I don't think the co-op elements they are promoting will hold up in real world testing with randoms either.

Definitely. I'm banking on it having a good beta and good twitch presence for my predictions. If it doesn't have either then I worry for Rare.

Sea of Thieves has a lot going against it right now (art style, what do you do?, is it soloable? etc) but all of that can be answered with a good beta

Twitch is a good marketing tool these days, if Sea of Thieves can stay around the top games for a while it should do some big numbers and IMO the game looks as if it was designed to do just that (I know it probably wasn't but that's how it looks).

 

[Kaako]

I wish the best for them but it certainly won't be pretty if it underperforms. The studio is basically being built around service driven games now and from what I'm told the project is costing Microsoft a lot.

Damn...I wish them the best. We're talking Fable Legends money and then some in this case aren't we? :/

I have a feeling they'll bundle it with Scorpio and count on folks trying it, liking it, making in app purchases for cosmetics, in order to build the IP.

I would if I ran the shop.

They should absolutely do this but also bundle with XBS. Especially if they're banking on nurturing the actual community for this game and keeping them coming back for more. This game needs to be bundled for the sake of keeping it alive.