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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?

Results are only viewable after voting.
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O

Omnistalgic

Member
It wasn't a very neatly done presentation, but neither was the Pro, and that sold well. Here's some perspective. Gaf isn't mainstream, so Im not sure because of the initial negative reaction here, that's a call for the system not selling well. The Pro's and Cons I see...


- Nintendo's franchises are beloved
- Family/Children focused
- Ideal for party/social gaming
- Portable
- local multi-player focused
- Japanese support from 3rd party

- Price
- Storage
- Sparse launch lineup
- expensive peripheral
- lacking features available on PS4/X1
- Weaker 3rd party support than PS4/X1
- Weak specs

The thing is, I don't see many casuals having issue with a lot of what us hardcore do. Specs, online features, storage are non factors for more casual gamers who just see a game they want to play and what system to play it on. For me, I'm probably never going to play Splatoon or Mario Kart online, it's certainly a family console first and foremost. And the appeal of Splatoon, Smash Brothers, Mario Kart, etc...It's just different than what I get on PS4. I think with hit software, $350 plus tax is a decent gift to take home for Nintendo fans and casual audiences, and it should initially do well.
 
I

ironcreed

Banned
seantos said:
I am tempted to agree, but are we really saying this is worse than the surprise Sega Saturn Launch that went on to launch exclusively as certain retail stores?
Click to expand...

At least the Saturn was a viable home system and not some in-between and crippled jack of all trades that falls short of appealing to both markets. But yeah, they fucked up as well.
 
G

GoldStarz

Member
Just my personal view, but terrible naming scheme aside, I favor the Wii U way more than anything I've seen from the Switch. I think it might do better just because it doesn't have the naming barrier, but really I don't think I'll be buying this unless something really amazing comes along and I'm pretty hardcore Nintendo.
 
F

FunkyPajamas

Member
ShinUltramanJ said:
Not hurt financially. They're going to make a lot of money on accessories.
Click to expand...
Ah, got it, thanks. Well, I don't think Nintendo is going to make 100 million controllers right away, specially if they're as expensive to manufacture as they seem to be. They'll probably be supply constrained (as Nintendo peripherals/accessories tend to be). As for Amiibo, aren't those just plastic toys with some chip in? I've never actually owned (or been interested in) one. They sell like hotcakes but they're probably cheap to make. Did they announce new super Amiibos or something? I must have dozed off at that point.
 
W

Wallach

Member
Papacheeks said:
No, Die hard Nintendo fans are trying to do damage control when not understanding the system is not fucking available for preorder on amazon right now. It's available at Bestbuy, Gamestop and target currently if there' s more someone update me.

The reason it's on the chart is it's being viewed and people are putting their email notifications in to get notified when it becomes available which is traffic that I guess amazon's system tracks.
Click to expand...

Amazin already sold out of Master edition I think. It was up earlier, I got one.
 
T

tearsintherain

Member
It may be successful in Japan but its DOA in Europe and North America. Only one launch game everyone will want, that will also come out on Wii U. 3-5 games announced that everyone will want in 2017, only two of those are new games. Insane prices for accessories. Crazy short battery life.

It just accelerates the timeline towards Nintendo becoming a third party publisher. This is a great window right now for someone to come up with a system that lets people play portable games on their phone that use a bluetooth good controller and somehow leverage you some access into a ps4/xbox/pc library, with some support for offline play.
 
K

Kurdel

Banned
vaudevillain said:
This is me trying to decide if I should buy a Switch at launch. Each ball represents $100 CDN.
Click to expand...

raw
 
B

Big One

Banned
Yes but not initially. I think it'll have 3DS style slow start.

Reasons:


  • Advertising campaign is really good. A LOT of people were hyped from the initial Switch trailer. Initial Wii U trailers left most players in confusion or dis-interest.
  • Launch titles are pretty bad outside of Zelda, but Zelda will capture hardcore Nintendo audiences that still don't have a Wii U (there's a lot of people like this) + a good portion of Wii U players.
  • Doesn't look like a toy like Wii U. Aesthetically very pleasing and simple and that goes a lot in how people perceive it as a product.
  • Eventually a mainline Monster Hunter and Pokemon game WILL be released on here, meaning that when these games are release the console will sell gangbusters. Pokemon alone sells systems. That is unless they make another portable system, but since the goal of the Switch is to combine their architectures I doubt this unless they make a small Switch.
  • Dragon Quest XI will sell the system in Japan by itself.
I think the start is going to be weak similar to Wii U and 3DS, but I think once Nintendo starts putting their heavy hitters on the system like their portable staples like Pokemon things are going to turn around. Then there's Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Yokai Watch, and other big franchises that sell gangbusters in Japan. With the Wii U I was actually looking forward to the launch but I simply couldn't see what the future lies, but the Switch is like the inverse for me.
 
D

decoyplatypus

Member
I'm no kind of market analyst, but I think the price is a problem. For the Switch to be a success, Nintendo must reach (a) casuals who don't want to spend a ton of money on a dedicated gaming platform, and (b) core gamers who have already spent tons on at least one other dedicated platforming and so probably don't want to spend much more. $300 is at least $50 and probably $100 too high.

I worry Nintendo approached the Switch's design from the wrong direction and ended up back in Wii U land: with a system that is not powerful enough to please enthusiasts but is still expensive due, in part, to features intended to attract alternative demographics...for whom the system will be too expensive.

Take the Joy-Con. I don't know that they're terribly expensive components, but they add something to the total system price. And they are as clearly targeted toward the casual end of the market as the Wii U tablet was. Sure, there are core gamers like me who put a premium on local multiplayer (as I did with offscreen play) and don't mind simpler games designed around limited controllers. But by and large this is about a different audience. Now, it is perfectly reasonable for Nintendo to try to market the Switch as a cool party game device. But those non-core twentysomethings are not going to pay $300 for a taboo/cards-against-humanity replacement. So it seems like once again Nintendo is giving up a lot (in price) for a feature that is unlikely to pay off.

My instinct is that Nintendo would have been better off setting a price of $200 and then designing a system around that. The price is just way more important in reaching their audience* than either marginal improvements in graphics or special, casual-friendly features.

*Bearing in mind that Nintendo's primary selling point for its systems will always be: it plays Nintendo games.
 
K

KoopaTheCasual

Junior Member
Didn't that insider lady say that the line-up (launch and window) would be packed? Or wasn't that the general tune of the insiders? Even looking at all things announced there are fewer titles than a normal launch day
 
O

Omega Kirby

Member
Burai said:
I see Nvidia releasing this for $100 less and think what might have been;

https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/shield/shield-tv/

3 hour battery means Switch is useless as a handheld so why not just forego the tablet, ship it as a console and then do a lower powered handheld SKU with decent battery life (thanks to die shrinks/lower clocks) further down the line?
Click to expand...

I actually tweeted Nvidia

[tweet]https://twitter.com/nvidiashield/status/819812233005797376[/tweet]
 
SmokedMeat

SmokedMeat

Gamer™
Papacheeks said:
No, Die hard Nintendo fans are trying to do damage control when not understanding the system is not fucking available for preorder on amazon right now. It's available at Bestbuy, Gamestop and target currently if there' s more someone update me.
Click to expand...

Mark my words; units will be readily available for purchase day one without a preorder.
 
H

HardRojo

Member
Ogawa-san said:
People think the only platform from now on to receive first/second party Nintendo games plus exclusives like Monster Hunter, (inexplicably) SMT5 and future others will be a failure?

They could've released it for $400.
Click to expand...
Missed a /s there buddy. $400? Yeah that'd be like sending a 10 man army to invade a country.
 
N

Ninja Scooter

Member
Ogawa-san said:
People think the only platform from now on to receive first/second party Nintendo games plus exclusives like Monster Hunter, (inexplicably) SMT5 and future others will be a failure?

They could've released it for $400.
Click to expand...

Yes, it's certainly possible. Nintendo just threw their handheld market into doubt, as there is no guarantee that parents will be willing to shell out $300 for their kids' next DS/3DS. Nintendo 1st/2nd party don't have the kind of pull some you try and ascribe to them, otherwise the Wii U would not have been such a failure, and yes, SMT and Monster Hunter are potentially huge...in one of the smallest markets. I don't see this guaranteed success.
 
P

Proxy

Member
If they drop the price early (e.g. 3DS), it'll do better than Wii U but still worse than 3DS. In that case I fail to see how you could call it a success. If they don't drop the price early then the future for this device doesn't look very bright. Nintendo can call this a hybrid all they want but it's primarily a handheld with a poor battery life, ridiculous $300 price tag and even more insanely priced accessories.
 
K

Kebiinu

Banned
Kodiak said:
I think GAF is underestimating how many more people are excited about the Switch than the Wii U and are aware of its existence prior to launch.

Nintendo's marketing has been on point thus far with the Switch. Everyone is clear about what it is: new console, works as both a home station and portable.

This is a far, far cry from "Is it an addon? Wii University? lulz."

This is a post Pokemon Go / Mario Run Nintendo. They're doing well with getting their name out there now. They will put that 1, 2, Switch game on Jimmy Fallon and he will giggle like a little boy and sales will be much, much stronger than Wii U year one. This thing will probably have Pokemon on it by the end of the year. People gonna buy it.
Click to expand...

This is really how I see it going. I honestly can't see the Switch flopping.
 
M

Miker

Member
It's gonna bomb hard. way, way too expensive for what it offers, and nobody is gonna want to pay for what is sure to be a sloppy online service.
 
D

dimb

Bjergsen is the greatest midlane in the world
The absence of prominent handheld titles in combination with Nintendo's mobile schedule including projects involving Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem have me thinking the Switch is not the "hybrid" people are billing it as. If Nintendo funnels all of their resources into the Switch they are falling into a trap of their own design. As for the appeal of the Switch, there is really nothing that leverages the portability of the system, and the motion control heavy games like Arms and even 1, 2 Switch seem at odds with the system's portable nature. So far nothing shown has taken advantage of being able to take the Switch away from the TV, but it sure is inheriting a number of limitations from the same gimmick.
 
Xilium

Xilium

Member
As a home console, it's DOA. It should have a pretty great first year though with Zelda and Mario coming out. That pretty much guarantees that the Nintendo faithful will make the jump from the Wii U. Beyond that, it seems like history is going to repeat itself and it's just gonna be an under-powered Nintendo hardware for Nintendo games and the Wii U (and GCN/N64) proved that that isn't enough.

The wildcard here in my opinion is the fact that this is also supposed to be a replacement for the 3DS. While the battery life seems pretty bad for the console-centric games, I imagine this device will be getting a lot of games from prior 3DS devs that will have a much smaller performance hit. Those are likely the games they are referring to when they say the system can have 6+ hours of battery life on the go. So the question becomes, once those games start coming out, will the 3DS player base make the switch and how many?

Basically, will Pokemon be a system seller on the same level for the Switch as it was for Nintendo's traditional handhelds? That's the only path to success that I see personally, from what has been shown so far.
 
T

Teppic

Member
I have my doubts. With paid online I know I won't get one anytime soon. Splatoon, Smash Bros, Mario Kart are games I no longer want on the machine since I'm not going to pay for online. That leaves Mario, Zelda, and Metroid (lol) as games I want to play. Zelda I can play on my Wii U, so that leaves pretty much only Mario I want.

This is for me much worse than the Wii U. With everything extra you need for the Switch it is very expensive. I think it will be more successful than the Wii U, but only because it's a portable console. That is the only good thing about it.
 
P

PlumCantaloupe

Member
In Canada, at $400 (more than an XboxOne or PS4) they are going to need some killer games and I am not sure Zelda or Mario is it.

I am having trouble seeing how this will do better than the WiiU honestly; and I am usually an optimist. The presentation was quite disappointing so we'll have to wait and see.
 
N

Ninja Scooter

Member
Omnistalgic said:
It wasn't a very neatly done presentation, but neither was the Pro, and that sold well. Here's some perspective. Gaf isn't mainstream, so Im not sure because of the initial negative reaction here, that's a call for the system not selling well. The Pro's and Cons I see...


- Nintendo's franchises are beloved
- Family/Children focused
- Ideal for party/social gaming
- Portable
- local multi-player focused
- Japanese support from 3rd party

- Price
- Storage
- Sparse launch lineup
- expensive peripheral
- lacking features available on PS4/X1
- Weaker 3rd party support than PS4/X1
- Weak specs

The thing is, I don't see many casuals having issue with a lot of what us hardcore do. Specs, online features, storage are non factors for more casual gamers who just see a game they want to play and what system to play it on. For me, I'm probably never going to play Splatoon or Mario Kart online, it's certainly a family console first and foremost. And the appeal of Splatoon, Smash Brothers, Mario Kart, etc...It's just different than what I get on PS4. I think with hit software, $350 plus tax is a decent gift to take home for Nintendo fans and casual audiences, and it should initially do well.
Click to expand...

If all of those things are "non factors" for casuals then explain the Wii U? Better yet, explain to me why someone who had no interest, casual or core, in the Wii U would be sold on a Switch? The messaging, the focus, all seems the same.
 
K

Karish

Member
I can't believe how doom and gloom people are. They will completey sell out at launch. Who knows what they are holding back for E3!? Mario this holiday is big. It will do well.
 
M

MUnited83

For you.
Omnistalgic said:
It wasn't a very neatly done presentation, but neither was the Pro, and that sold well. Here's some perspective. Gaf isn't mainstream, so Im not sure because of the initial negative reaction here, that's a call for the system not selling well. The Pro's and Cons I see...


- Nintendo's franchises are beloved
- Family/Children focused
- Ideal for party/social gaming
- Portable
- local multi-player focused
- Japanese support from 3rd party

- Price
- Storage
- Sparse launch lineup
- expensive peripheral
- lacking features available on PS4/X1
- Weaker 3rd party support than PS4/X1
- Weak specs

The thing is, I don't see many casuals having issue with a lot of what us hardcore do. Specs, online features, storage are non factors for more casual gamers who just see a game they want to play and what system to play it on. For me, I'm probably never going to play Splatoon or Mario Kart online, it's certainly a family console first and foremost. And the appeal of Splatoon, Smash Brothers, Mario Kart, etc...It's just different than what I get on PS4. I think with hit software, $350 plus tax is a decent gift to take home for Nintendo fans and casual audiences, and it should initially do well.
Click to expand...
A lot of the things you said casuals like were already present on the Wii U. Splatoon Smash Brothers and Mario Kart were all on Wii u.
How did that end up again?
 
R

ronaldthump

Member
When the core is saying its going to bomb and a lot of people are saying it will bomb... it'll be interesting to revisit this thread in a year. Subscribed. lol
 
V

VillageBC

Member
I like Nintendo games. They have a quality that just isn't replicated by 3rd parties. Eventually I'll buy a Switch... But a success, yes. In the sense that it makes money but isn't a market leader.
 
DR2K

DR2K

Banned
Big One said:
Yes but not initially. I think it'll have 3DS style slow start.

Reasons:


  • Advertising campaign is really good. A LOT of people were hyped from the initial Switch trailer. Initial Wii U trailers left most players in confusion or dis-interest.
  • Launch titles are pretty bad outside of Zelda, but Zelda will capture hardcore Nintendo audiences that still don't have a Wii U (there's a lot of people like this) + a good portion of Wii U players.
  • Doesn't look like a toy like Wii U. Aesthetically very pleasing and simple and that goes a lot in how people perceive it as a product.
  • Eventually a mainline Monster Hunter and Pokemon game WILL be released on here, meaning that when these games are release the console will sell gangbusters. Pokemon alone sells systems. That is unless they make another portable system, but since the goal of the Switch is to combine their architectures I doubt this unless they make a small Switch.
  • Dragon Quest XI will sell the system in Japan by itself.
I think the start is going to be weak similar to Wii U and 3DS, but I think once Nintendo starts putting their heavy hitters on the system like their portable staples like Pokemon things are going to turn around. Then there's Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, Yokai Watch, and other big franchises that sell gangbusters in Japan.
Click to expand...

DQXI is on PS4 and 3DS, no one is buying a switch for it when they already have a platform ready to play it.
 
O

orthodoxy1095

Banned
Omnistalgic said:
It wasn't a very neatly done presentation, but neither was the Pro, and that sold well. Here's some perspective. Gaf isn't mainstream, so Im not sure because of the initial negative reaction here, that's a call for the system not selling well. The Pro's and Cons I see...


- Nintendo's franchises are beloved
- Family/Children focused
- Ideal for party/social gaming
- Portable
- local multi-player focused
- Japanese support from 3rd party

- Price
- Storage
- Sparse launch lineup
- expensive peripheral
- lacking features available on PS4/X1
- Weaker 3rd party support than PS4/X1
- Weak specs

The thing is, I don't see many casuals having issue with a lot of what us hardcore do. Specs, online features, storage are non factors for more casual gamers who just see a game they want to play and what system to play it on. For me, I'm probably never going to play Splatoon or Mario Kart online, it's certainly a family console first and foremost. And the appeal of Splatoon, Smash Brothers, Mario Kart, etc...It's just different than what I get on PS4. I think with hit software, $350 plus tax is a decent gift to take home for Nintendo fans and casual audiences, and it should initially do well.
Click to expand...
Besides the hilarity of much of your list sounding like Wii U 2.0, I don't buy this. The casual consumer is going to walk into Walmart this summer and holiday season and see an X1/PS4 for sub-$250 with a pack-in game next to a Switch at $300 with nothing included.

Guess which one the casual consumer will pick up.
 
L

liquidtmd

Banned
I think it will have a better opening 12 month library than the Wii U. Mario and Zelda will be exceptional experiences.

However...I think it will do above Wii U numbers WW but ultimately share its fate. It will fail. I don't believe the hybrid concept is enough of a USP, the prices WW retail aren't great versus what you can buy tablet wise or console wise, the PS4 and XB1 calendar for 2017 is stacked, the battery is a major misjudgement with the 2-6hour figure, the online sub plan against a backdrop of Nintendo historically being generations behind online wise, ports of PS4/XB1 games will be too hard and third parties will not really as a rule care enough treating it effectively as Wii U again (making all the right noises but outside the odd gem, fuck all)
 
killatopak

killatopak

Gold Member
All signs point to no.

Only reason for them to do well is if they can lower the price like 3ds and the increased output of games coming from previous 3ds developers.
 
Suburban Thug

Suburban Thug

Member
ShinUltramanJ said:
Mark my words; units will be readily available for purchase day one without a preorder.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure but wouldn't be surprised if you're right. I feel like Nintendo die hards defending what are obviously questionable decisions will buy out the initial shipment but after that we will have a Wii U situation where nobody cares about it.
 
phant0m

phant0m

Member
Spartancarver said:
This is Nintendo's attitude as well. We'll see how that works out. $299 for that hardware is hysterical to me, but apparently there are plenty of Nintendo fans accepting and even defending it here.
Click to expand...

Well, the Shield Tablet K1 (basically what this HW is, i thInk), was $199 and didn't have a base, joycons, or a power adapter. Also only 16 GB of storage.


That said, I do have some strong concerns:

1. They say "8 player local wireless", but that's with 4 Switch consoles. Seems like on ly 2 players per console, which means no 4 player on the big screen.

2. Too big and too expensive to be the handheld that every kid has. Think families with multiple children are gonna buy 2 or 3 Switches? Nah. Local multi is good for kart and smash, but when jimmy & timmy BOTH want to play zelda there's gonna be issues.

Basically, instead of making a great home console or a great handheld, they made one that's sort of okay at both. Time will tell if the market agrees.
 
M

Mammoth Jones

Member
Hardware isn't the issue. Price of the console isn't the issue.

Coming in the middle of a console cycle with the PS4 and XB1 having a massive library is.

It's gonna be difficult without a huge blitz of must have games very quickly.
 
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