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[Ōkami]

It wouldn't be surprising if a bunch of day one owners don't buy any games at launch, not that uncommon.

 

[noshten]

It's 8800yen for a year old game and a two year old game. It's probably not going to do much.

They might find additional audience from Vita/Switch/Wii U owners rather than people who have PS4. Local 4 player co-op and the portable form factor is something that the Switch version has going for it. All DLC and two games worth of content isn't the worst deal you could get at launch.
I'm sure a lot of devs that released games in the last few years are thinking about. I could very well see a bunch of late ports of big Japanese games that launched on the PS4 but never had a handheld variation. For example MGS5 with local multiplayer - I'm sure Konami is already thinking about how the best milk their franchises with the least amount of effort.

Personally handheld DS/DS2/DS3 bundle is something I want desperately despite owning all three games on my PC. I also think rumble for DS might get me in that next level of immersion.

 

[Mpl90]

I'm pretty curious to see how the titles that are not Zelda will perform at launch. I can see DQHI-II and Disgaea 5 being respectively the second and the third best seller at launch, unless 1-2 Switch does the unthinkable and surprises all the skeptics (me included) about its sales potential as a 50$/5,000 Yen minigame collection of that kind.

It will be interesting to see how pre-order start on January 21st

 

[Chris1964]

Well, if that's the case in Japan the system won't even have a good launch week, much less survive until Splatoon 2.

Launch week is based more on hype than released software. Next weeks are when software power shows.

 

[duckroll]

What games sell more will tell us a lot about the audience actually buying the Switch at launch in Japan. If DQH and Disgaea sell more than 1 2 Switch, I think it indicates that the percentage of early adopters are entirely core gamers who, like with the WiiU, are likely to just buy the exclusives they want, and game on other platforms instead when there's nothing they want on the Switch. That's not healthy.

If families and wider audiences are buying the Switch, I don't see why 1 2 Switch won't do at least decently, because it's the sort of thing you would get to play together. They should definitely have priced it lower though.

 

[Oregano]

What games sell more will tell us a lot about the audience actually buying the Switch at launch in Japan. If DQH and Disgaea sell more than 1 2 Switch, I think it indicates that the percentage of early adopters are entirely core gamers who, like with the WiiU, are likely to just buy the exclusives they want, and game on other platforms instead when there's nothing they want on the Switch. That's not healthy.

If families and wider audiences are buying the Switch, I don't see why 1 2 Switch won't do at least decently, because it's the sort of thing you would get to play together. They should definitely have priced it lower though.

How to describe Switch in one sentence.

 

[Vena]

Y'all sleeping on Snipperclips. Big standout from the Tokyo Show Floor with those I've spoken to (or even just general impressions).

That said, 1-2-Switch remains a "neat but it should be a pack-in" from everyone. I wonder if it doesn't end up that way by the time we reach launch given the reaction. That said, the theater they out on with the actors was apparently a big hit... But they aren't packaged with the software.

Meanwhile Splatoon 2 was closed on both days before they even opened. Haha.

Joycons are the real stars though, seemingly everywhere.

 

[Mpl90]

Y'all sleeping on Snipperclips. Big standout from the Tokyo Show Floor with those I've spoken to (or even just general impressions).

That said, 1-2-Switch remains a "neat but it should be a pack-in" from everyone. I wonder if it doesn't end up that way by the time we reach launch given the reaction. That said, the theater they out on with the actors was apparently a big hit... But they aren't packaged with the software.

Meanwhile Splatoon 2 was closed on both days before they even opened. Haha.

Joycons are the real stars though, seemingly everywhere.

SnipperClips looks great, but I don't know how much it can influence positively the console's sales by being an eShop only game. I wonder if it'll be released at retail as well, at least in Japan: its price over here is $19.99, so it has a cheap price as advantage.

 

[noshten]

What games sell more will tell us a lot about the audience actually buying the Switch at launch in Japan. If DQH and Disgaea sell more than 1 2 Switch, I think it indicates that the percentage of early adopters are entirely core gamers who, like with the WiiU, are likely to just buy the exclusives they want, and game on other platforms instead when there's nothing they want on the Switch. That's not healthy.

If families and wider audiences are buying the Switch, I don't see why 1 2 Switch won't do at least decently, because it's the sort of thing you would get to play together. They should definitely have priced it lower though.

Yep it would be quite interesting to keep track of pre-orders and launch weeks. Personally this is how I see the Switch launch and I don't think they would do sale much more than half a million in the first month for Japan. There is simply no game that can move that amount of hardware in either the hardcore or family demographic. Personally I do think Zelda could be a big hit in Japan by Zelda standards.

- Zelda Breath of the Wild - both
- 1 2 Switch - family
- Dragon Quest Heroes 1+2 - both
- Nobunaga no Yabou Power Kit thingy - hardcore
- I am Setsuna - hardcore hailmarry
- Puyo Puyo Tetris S - family
- Disgaea 5 - hardcore
- Super Bomberman R - family


Anyhow not too sure what to expect from Zelda in Japan as a launch game but it's possible it might actually be one of the most successful Zeldas. 500k would be a very good result historically and BOTW might be the game to surpass it in it's lifetime.

Handheld Zelda Week 1 Sales - 2007 - 2015

Media Create Sales 6/18 - 6/24 #1
01./00. [NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (Nintendo) - 302,887 / NEW

Media Create Sales: Dec 21 - 27, 2009 #1
02. / 00. [NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (Nintendo) - 291.496 / NEW

Media Create Sales: Week 24, 2011 (Jun 13 - Jun 19)
02. / 00. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (Nintendo) {2011.06.16} - 164.110 / NEW

Media Create Sales: Week 52, 2013 (Dec 22 - Dec 29)
01./00. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2013.12.26} (¥4.800) - 224.143 / NEW <83,47%>

Media Create Sales: Week 7, 2015 (Feb 09 - Feb 15)
01./00. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2015.02.14} (¥5.076) - 230.065 / NEW <85,92%>

Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2015 (Oct 19 - Oct 25)
01./00. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: TriForce Heroes <ADV> (Nintendo) {2015.10.22} (¥5.076) - 54.394 / NEW

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Anyhow not too sure what to expect from Zelda in Japan as a launch game but it's possible it might actually be one of the most successful Zeldas. 500k would be a very good result historically and BOTW might be the game to surpass it in it's lifetime.

Zelda opening to 500k or having a LTD of more than 500k?

The former isn't possible but the latter is.

The best comparison we have is for Twilight Princess, which was a launch game for Wii/GameCube.

WII	The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess	145.068	554.109	Nintendo	12/2/2006
NGC	The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess	 	70.000	Nintendo	12/2/2006

 

[Mory Dunz]

Zelda opening to 500k or having a LTD of more than 500k?

The former isn't possible but the latter is.

The best comparison we have is for Twilight Princess, which was a launch game for Wii/GameCube.

WII	The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess	145.068	554.109	Nintendo	12/2/2006
NGC	The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess	 	70.000	Nintendo	12/2/2006

I can surmise he doesn't mean FW....

 

[noshten]

Zelda opening to 500k or having a LTD of more than 500k?

The former isn't possible but the latter is.

The best comparison we have is for Twilight Princess, which was a launch game for Wii/GameCube.

WII	The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess	145.068	554.109	Nintendo	12/2/2006
NGC	The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess	 	70.000	Nintendo	12/2/2006

Yes I'm thinking beyond 500k lifetime around 300k launch month.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Yes I'm thinking beyond 500k lifetime around 300k launch month.

I was questioning your statement because 500k sales won't make it 'one of the most successful Zelda' in Japan. I thought maybe you were saying something like 500k in launch month.

The mainline games, the new ones atleast, have all managed to sell decently. Only Skyward Sword didn't manage to hit 500k in Japan.

Considering Zelda BOTW is on multiple platforms, if it doesn't hit 500k, then the series is dead.

 

[ethomaz]

Zelda won't do 300k at launch.

200kish.

 

[Aostia]

Zelda won't do 300k at launch.

200kish.

Looking at recent Zelda sales that would still be very good

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Looking at recent Zelda sales that would still be very good

50k and above on Wii U. Between 100k and 150k on Switch sounds about right for it.

 

[test_account]

The Switch kinda feels like WiiU 2. Not necessarily in sales potential, but in concept. With WiiU, Nintendo wanted to make a Wii, for you (hence the name). A system that both appealed to the casual and core gamer. With Switch, instead of having a more traditional controller input and Wiimote on the side like the WiiU had, Nintendo incorporate both those things into one with the Joycons. Thats for the home system part, the big difference with the Switch is of course that you can play anywhere, where WiiU only had that function limited within a certain area within the console. Looking forward to see how its being recieved!

 

[horuhe]

Breath of the Wild should do between 100k to 200k FW. Between 100k and 150k if hardware doesn't explode, and between 150k and 200k if Switch does a little better than expected FW. Ocarina of Time is very telling in this sense.

 

[Chris1964]

3DS hw - 374.764 / sw - 356.606 <95,00%>
WIU hw - 308.142 / sw - 376.000 <122,00%>

With an attach rate close to 1 and lack of other big releases Zelda will get a very big majority of software sales at launch.

 

[Eolz]

I could see Zelda having a better opening than many others just by being the biggest game of the Switch before a long while (+some copies from the WiiU), but yeah, 500k LTD might be a bit much.
Hopefully they can over time though.

 

[Ōkami]

1. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD II.8 Final Chapter Prologue - 248
2. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony - 94
3. [PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony - 53
4. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! - 41
5. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS - 38
6. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki - 33
7. [3DS] Pokemon Moon - 27
8. [3DS] Pokemon Sun - 26
9. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (Koukoukyuu no Gentei Box) - 23
10. [PS4] SG/ZH: School Girl Zombie Hunter - 18
11. [3DS] Miitopia - 18
12. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 17
13. [PS4] Battlefield 1 - 16
14. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 15
15. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 14
16. [3DS] Mario Party: Star Rush - 13
17. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition - 10
18. [PSV] Valkyrie Drive: Bhikkhuni (Party Edition) - 9
19. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 9
20. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition - 9

Second Hand
[PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 10
[PS4] Final Fantasy XV - 10
[3DS] Pokemon Sun - 7
[3DS] Pokemon Moon - 5

Preorders
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 432
[PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard - 152
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 65
[PS4] Super Robot Wars V - 57
[PSV] Super Robot Wars V - 49
[PS4] Nier: Automata - 34
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 - 32
[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 Professional - 31
[PS4] Valkyria Revolution - 31
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 + 2.5 Remix - 14
[PSV] Valkyria Revolution - 13
[PS4] Digimon World: Next Order - 12

 

[Mpl90]

1. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD II.8 Final Chapter Prologue - 248
2. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony - 94
3. [PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony - 53
4. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! - 38
5. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki - 33
6. [3DS] Pokemon Moon - 27
7. [3DS] Pokemon Sun - 26
8. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (Koukoukyuu no Gentei Box) - 23
9. [PS4] SG/ZH: School Girl Zombie Hunter - 18
10. [3DS] Miitopia - 18
11. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 17
12. [PS4] Battlefield 1 - 16
13. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 15
14. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 14
15. [3DS] Mario Party: Star Rush - 13
16. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition - 10
17. [PSV] Valkyrie Drive: Bhikkhuni (Party Edition) - 9
18. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 9
19. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition - 9

Second Hand
[PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 10
[PS4] Final Fantasy XV - 10
[3DS] Pokemon Sun - 7
[3DS] Pokemon Moon - 5

Preorders
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 432
[PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard - 152
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 65
[PS4] Super Robot Wars V - 57
[PSV] Super Robot Wars V - 49
[PS4] Nier: Automata - 34
[PS4] Gravity Rush 2 - 32
[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 Professional - 31
[PS4] Valkyria Revolution - 31
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 + 2.5 Remix - 14
[PSV] Valkyria Revolution - 13
[PS4] Digimon World: Next Order - 12

...Did Super Mario Maker 3DS sell out at Comgnet?

 

[Kresnik258]

Disgaea 3: Absence of Detention 2011 Nippon Ichi 22,453 / NEW
Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance 2015 Nippon Ichi - 22.725 / NEW

I doubt Disgaea 5 Switch is gonna get any more than these two, since we were talking about launch title sales (Disgaea 5 is launch title right?)

I'm intrigued to how Dragon Quest does, but there's not much else exciting among them imo. Just the usual launch fluff.

1. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD II.8 Final Chapter Prologue - 248
2. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony - 94
3. [PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony - 53
4. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! - 41
5. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS - 38
6. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki - 33
7. [3DS] Pokemon Moon - 27
8. [3DS] Pokemon Sun - 26
9. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (Koukoukyuu no Gentei Box) - 23
10. [PS4] SG/ZH: School Girl Zombie Hunter - 18
11. [3DS] Miitopia - 18
12. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition - 17
13. [PS4] Battlefield 1 - 16
14. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 15
15. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 14
16. [3DS] Mario Party: Star Rush - 13
17. [WIU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition - 10
18. [PSV] Valkyrie Drive: Bhikkhuni (Party Edition) - 9
19. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 9
20. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition - 9

DanganRonpa V3 seems to have been taking a review slating on Amazon.jp. I mean, I know that's commonplace these days, but I wasn't expecting it here. Wonder how that'll affect sales.

Looks like Tamsoft/D3 are on for another sub 10k opening on PS4 with their latest game, lol. I wonder why they bother. Maybe COMG will be wrong and it'll rip Onechanbara's sales a new one!

 

[ZSaberLink]

Japanese Switch launch title sales' reference points (I guess this is pretty early, but why not lol)

New Titles
-------------------
Zelda Breath of the Wild - 3/3/2017 (also releasing on Wii U)
3DS The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D 182.998 636.571 Nintendo 6/16/2011
WII The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 145.068 554.109 Nintendo 12/2/2006

1-2 Switch
WIU Nintendo Land 78.461 400.704 Nintendo 12/8/2012

Super Bomberman R ...
Hard to say since there hasn't been a Bomberland title in so long ... probably depends on price (I could see it doing decently if it's cheap...)

------------------------
Ports (These are actually mostly from PS4/PSV surprisingly)....

Dragon Quest Heroes 1 & 2 Switch - 3/3/2017
(doubt it'll sell anywhere near these... maybe as well as the PS3 version of DQHeroes 2 if we're lucky)
PS3 Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below 311.277 472.602 Square Enix 2/26/2015
PS4 Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below 255.292 360.698 Square Enix 2/26/2015

PS4 Dragon Quest Heroes II: The Twin Kings and Prophecy's End 188.690 308.154 Square Enix 5/27/2016
PSV Dragon Quest Heroes II: The Twin Kings and Prophecy's End 123.812 227.207 Square Enix 5/27/2016
PS3 Dragon Quest Heroes II: The Twin Kings and Prophecy's End 69.426 118.176 Square Enix 5/27/2016

Puyo Puyo Tetris S
3DS Puyo Puyo Tetris 42.096 104.044 SEGA 2/6/2014
PS3 Puyo Puyo Tetris 11.863 24.570 SEGA 2/6/2014
PSV Puyo Puyo Tetris 9.739 14.745 SEGA 2/6/2014
WIU Puyo Puyo Tetris 5.232 8.673 SEGA 2/6/2014

I Am Setsuna
PS4 I am Setsuna 32.557 59.200 Square Enix 2/18/2016
PSV I am Setsuna 26.266 46.062 Square Enix 2/18/2016

Disgaea 5 Complete - 3/3/2017
PS4 Disgaea 5: Alliance of Vengeance 22.872 38.400 Nippon Ichi Software 3/26/2015

Nobunaga no Yabou: Souzou with Power-Up Kit -]

PS4 Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence - Sengoku Risshiden 22.311 46.319 Koei Tecmo 3/24/2016
PSV Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence - Sengoku Risshiden 14.914 23.297 Koei Tecmo 3/24/2016
PS3 Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence - Sengoku Risshiden 14.006 22.419 Koei Tecmo 3/24/2016
PS3 Nobunaga's Ambition: Sphere of Influence - Sengoku Risshiden 14.006 22.419 Koei Tecmo 3/24/2016

 

[Eolz]

For 1-2 Switch, how much did Wii Play sold in Japan? I guess it was bundled with a wiimote like in the west?

 

[noshten]

I was questioning your statement because 500k sales won't make it 'one of the most successful Zelda' in Japan. I thought maybe you were saying something like 500k in launch month.

The mainline games, the new ones atleast, have all managed to sell decently. Only Skyward Sword didn't manage to hit 500k in Japan.

Considering Zelda BOTW is on multiple platforms, if it doesn't hit 500k, then the series is dead.

I just didn't know historically how much they sold.
Like I said I'd like to see how pre-orders go but honestly I think there is hype around this Zelda moreso than MK8 Deluxe. We've simply seen a lot more and it's very appealing and I think it will do well as a launch title.
In a way Zelda is the perfect title to actually show a game on the newest handheld to someone.

 

[horuhe]

Rakuten Books Sales Ranking Week 2, 2017 (Jan 09 - Jan 15)

01./00. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD II.8: Final Chapter Prologue <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./00. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
03./00. [PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
04./06. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5)
05./01. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo)
06./03. [3DS] Pokémon Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
07./02. [3DS] Pokémon Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
08./04. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! <TBL> (Nintendo)
09./12. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo)
10./05. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life <ACT> (Sega)
11./07. [3DS] Miitopia <SLG> (Nintendo)
12./14. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive)
13./10. [3DS] Mario Party: Star Rush <ETC> (Nintendo)
14./13. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Interactive)
15./08. [3DS] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Heroes <SPT> (Konami)
16./21. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV <RPG> (Square Enix)
17./15. [PS4] Watch Dogs 2 <ADV> (Ubisoft)
18./00. [PS4] SG/ZH: School Girl/Zombie Hunter <ACT> (D3Publisher)
19./22. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer)
20./11. [WiiU] Minecraft: Wii U Edition <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios)

Rakuten Books Pre-Orders Ranking Week 2, 2017 (Jan 09 - Jan 15)

01./01. [PS4] Resident Evil 7 (Grotesque Ver.) <ACT> (Capcom)
02./06. [3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World <ACT> (Nintendo)
03./05. [3DS] Monster Hunter XX <ACT> (Capcom)
04./09. [PS4] Valkyria: Azure Revolution <RPG> (Sega)
05./08. [PS4] Gravity Rush 2 (First Limited Edition) <ADV> (Sony Interactive)
06./07. [PS4] Nier: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix)
07./12. [PS4] Horizon: Zero Down <RPG> (Sony Interactive)
08./22. [PSV] Valkyria: Azure Revolution <RPG> (Sega)
09./17. [PS4] Four Goddesses Online: Cyber Dimension Neptune (Royal Edition) <RPG> (Compile Heart)
10./14. [PS4] Resident Evil 7 <ACT> (Capcom)

Rakuten Books Ranking Week 1, 2017 (Jan 02 - Jan 08)

***WARNING***

* Note: Games on the Rakuten Books Rankings are ONLY based on sales at Rakuten Books and does NOT count games sold by other retailers at Rakuten.
** Note 2: Games on the Pre-Orders Ranking are counted as net sales, so it might possibly affect the games listed on the Sales Ranking, since those sales are NOT added afterwards.

 

[duckroll]

In a way Zelda is the perfect title to actually show a game on the newest handheld to someone.

In Japan? Probably not. I think the first question would be "hey can I play too?" and when they realize it's a single player adventure game it's less interesting.

 

[hiska-kun]

Tsutaya's Ranking Week 2 2017

01./00. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD II.8: Final Chapter Prologue <RPG> (Square Enix)
02./00. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
03./00. [PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
04./02. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! <TBL> (Nintendo)
05./01. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS <ACT> (Nintendo)
06./12. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki <RPG> (Level 5)
07./03. [3DS] Pokemon Sun <RPG> (Pokemon Co.)
08./04. [3DS] Pokemon Moon <RPG> (Pokemon Co.)
09./00. [PSV] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (Ultra-High School Limited Box) <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
10./06. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life <ADV> (Sega)
11./00. [PS4] SG/ZH: School Girl/Zombie Hunter <ACT> (D3Publisher)
12./08. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV <RPG> (Square Enix)
13./05. [3DS] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Heroes <SPT> (Konami)
14./07. [3DS] Miitopia <SLG> (Nintendo)
15./09. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
16./00. [PS4] Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony (Ultra-High School Limited Box) <ADV> (Spike Chunsoft)
17./16. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan)
18./10. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo)
19./15. [PS4] Watch Dogs 2 <ADV> (Ubisoft)
20./13. [PS4] The Last Guardian <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment)

 

[Square2015]

Zelda opening to 500k or having a LTD of more than 500k?

The former isn't possible but the latter is.

The best comparison we have is for Twilight Princess, which was a launch game for Wii/GameCube.

WII	The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess	145.068	554.109	Nintendo	12/2/2006
NGC	The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess	 	70.000	Nintendo	12/2/2006

Yeah, Japan's not too into Zelda 3D anymore, Celda: tact of wind was the last real hit (860k shipped) and Mask of Majura (with similar sales).

 

[noshten]

In Japan? Probably not. I think the first question would be "hey can I play too?" and when they realize it's a single player adventure game it's less interesting.

I was talking more in the tech demo and something that might appeal to both kids and adults for a console they are launching in March. Out of all titles they had ready(S2/MK8/Zelda) - Zelda is the best one when looking from a WW perspective. Splatoon 2 launches summer vacation the most important period outside of December.
MK8 Deluxe launch for April also makes sense(Spring Break/Easter Holidays), ARMs(probably be their May release). In any case I think those are the bigger games til August.

 

[Blablurn]

09./07. [PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life # <ADV> (Sega) {2016.12.08} (¥8.190) - 13.825 / 326.325 (-30%)

Is Yakuza still relevant in Japan?

¥8.190 is also a pretty crazy price.

 

[duckroll]

Is Yakuza still relevant in Japan?

¥8.190 is also a pretty crazy price.

If 326k isn't relevant, then dedicated gaming isn't really relevant in Japan.

8190yen with tax is just 7800yen without tax. That's the normal price for the majority of big console releases in Japan for the last 20 years.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Yeah, Japan's not too into Zelda 3D anymore, Celda: tact of wind was the last real hit (860k shipped) and Mask of Majura (with similar sales).

I love how 3D Zelda is not "big" anymore when it still outsells the sales of plenty of "big" games on PS4... 400-500K on a console is still a big title in this day and age imo.

 

[Blablurn]

If 326k isn't relevant, then dedicated gaming isn't really relevant in Japan.

8190yen with tax is just 7800yen without tax. That's the normal price for the majority of big console releases in Japan for the last 20 years.

Alright!! Thanks for the answer

Wasn't sure regarding the sales.

 

[duckroll]

I love how 3D Zelda is not "big" anymore when it still outsells the sales of plenty of "big" games on PS4... 400-500K on a console is still a big title in this day and age imo.

Skyward Sword only did 350k though. Wind Waker HD and Twilight Princess HD didn't do much either. On the other hand, OoT 3D and MM 3D sold very well, and even stuff like Triforce Heroes sold better than the HD ports. So the conclusion isn't that 3D Zelda isn't popular. The conclusion is portable Zelda is where the money is.

Whether the Switch is perceived as portable or not will determine how BotW goes.

 

[jnWake]

Was Bomberman popular in Japan?

It'll be the only good multiplayer showcase at launch and it's a traditional IP. Could do well I gues.

 

[Trident]

Skyward Sword only did 350k though. Wind Waker HD and Twilight Princess HD didn't do much either. On the other hand, OoT 3D and MM 3D sold very well, and even stuff like Triforce Heroes sold better than the HD ports. So the conclusion isn't that 3D Zelda isn't popular. The conclusion is portable Zelda is where the money is.

Whether the Switch is perceived as portable or not will determine how BotW goes.

Isn't this more based on install base?

 

[Busaiku]

Isn't this more based on install base?

Ocarina of Time 3D sold when there weren't many 3DSs.

 

[Ōkami]

Isn't this more based on install base?

Zelda sold less on the Wii install base than on GameCube or Nintendo 64 install base.

 

[duckroll]

Isn't this more based on install base?

Not really. Both Twilight Princess and Skyward Sword were on the Wii. By the time Skyward Sword was released, the Wii installed base was ten times that of the period Twilight Princess was selling. Yet sales fell from 500k+ to 350k. The decline was already there. I think Wind Waker sold over 700k on the GC.

 

[Man God]

Not really. Both Twilight Princess and Skyward Sword were on the Wii. By the time Skyward Sword was released, the Wii installed base was ten times that of the period Twilight Princess was selling. Yet sales fell from 500k+ to 350k. The decline was already there. I think Wind Waker sold over 700k on the GC.

I believe that's the case.

Wii's popularity with the casual market brought huge sales of TP in the west only. TP did okay in Japan, SS did not.

 

[hiska-kun]

Zelda Breath of Wild is the only strong launch title for Switch, and most of the software sales will be for this title. If Switch's opening week is around ~300k, most probably Zelda sales will be >200k, and then we need to add Wii U's sales (~50k?). ~250k opening in total makes sense for me.

LTD sales will depend on how quickly Switch hardware sales collapse. If it just happens the following week, Zelda's sales will collapse as well. If hardware keeps selling for a few more weeks in a good pace, then Zelda will keep selling too.

I think beating Skyward Sword sales (~350k) is probably not a difficult task, 500k LTD will depend on Switch hardware selling pace.

Also, remember that launch titles usually have better legs, just look at Ocarina on 3DS with 165k opening and >600k LTD.

 

[Alrus]

Ocarina of Time 3D wasn't a launch title though.

 

[random25]

Skyrim doing well in Japan, Zelda BotW being a launch title and having the best marketing push it can possibly get, and it being a portable game might help it do very well against the previous entries in the series. I might be crazy, but I can see the game do 1M LTD in the long run.

 

[hiska-kun]

Ocarina of Time 3D wasn't a launch title though.

Launch window then.

 

[KtSlime]

Skyrim doing well in Japan, Zelda BotW being a launch title and having the best marketing push it can possibly get, and it being a portable game might help it do very well against the previous entries in the series. I might be crazy, but I can see the game do 1M LTD in the long run.

Many people are saying they are interested in this Zelda because it reminds them of the very first Zelda. This Zelda so far is getting a good push. More so than ones in the past here. They are hungry to grow the franchisees Japan.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Skyrim doing well in Japan, Zelda BotW being a launch title and having the best marketing push it can possibly get, and it being a portable game might help it do very well against the previous entries in the series. I might be crazy, but I can see the game do 1M LTD in the long run.

1 million is crazy number. No way it happens and portable doesn't mean it will hit that number when no game did on 3DS and DS.


Nikkei: Nippon Ichi's stock falls because investors are wary that Switch ver of Disgaea 5 might have trouble selling

Should have ported to Vita instead, lol.

 

[Mory Dunz]

But according to an eariler post on this page, it only sold 40k in Japan.
Seems a low ceiling to start with anyway.

I dunno about, (or care much about) disgaea so maybe I'm missing something.

 

[random25]

1 million is crazy number. No way it happens and portable doesn't mean it will hit that number when no game did on 3DS and DS.

I didn't only factor the portability aspect.