OrbitalBeard
Member
Of course.
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(Gamesindustry) Nintendo Switch to sell 40M units through 2020 - DFC Intel. report
- Thread starter Volotaire
- Start date
Of course.
geordiemp
Member
Agreel - £ 280 handheld + paid online, then 20 million.
If they drop to £ 180 and free online, then 50 million +.
Barry Burton
Member
I agree with this completely. Switch success hinges nearly entirely on it getting full first-party support from Nintendo. I think the news of a 3DS exclusive Fire Emblem this week is a real mistake on their part, but they'll still be okay if this is something that doesn't extend beyond 2017. But yeah, if they keep supporting the 3DS with exclusives and/or release a true 3DS successor that isn't compatible with Switch games, then they'll have pretty much stuck the fork in the Switch themselves.
All that being said, even if Nintendo undermines Switch by continuing to place focus on a separate handheld product, the Switch should still do considerably better than the Wii U; something around GameCube numbers lifetime. It can't be overstated enough how unattractive the Wii U was as a product in every which way, with poor messaging and weak marketing on top of all that. I think predictions of the Switch doing Wii U numbers or worse are way off the mark.
NinjaCoachZ
Member
Honestly the first year for the Switch might be a slow burn, but 40m in 3-4 years could be doable. By then things like price, lack of pack-in, and the game lineup will be less of an issue.
Not to mention the games currently announced are $50-$60, they want the 3DS crowd to spend that vs the $40 they are used to just because hybrid and want 3ds sales? lol yeah no
I'm part of the semi-casual 3DS crowd, bought my new3ds XL used with games bundled for $150 because hardware is not worth their msrp i buy my games only on sale. A large portion of the portable market is really price sensitive, not to mention those outside of the US who may not ever see a promo this thing is a expensive home console that can be portable with expensive games for now.
There are no alternative models so it will struggle to even reach 3DS numbers until a hardware revision and price drop imo. People keep repeating hybrid like it matters all that much, i doubt the portable market will pay the price associated with it.
JordanN
Banned
I find that hard to believe.
That would mean they have no idea what optimization is if their answer is "well, something more powerful will come and fix everything".
A lot of those are what people call "casual" gamers though, who were happy with offerings on mobile without needing Mario.
Unless monster Hunter moves to mobile i think those 4 million people are still going to want their on the go monster Hunter fix.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Man, I hope they do.
Because? Lower game prices? Because we all know Nintendo games drop in price
Inferno313
Banned
Well, for one thing, it's probably going to be Pokemon Company that announces the game, not Nintendo. And, they already have announced that they'll be making Switch games.
To answer your question, probably once sales of Sun and Moon dry up a little more, it'd be too early to announce the third version now, even if it is a 2017 game.
CassidyIzABeast
Member
That's way too much considering the third party support will be even worse than it was for the Wii U.
The 3ds has sold 60m, why aren't you including those figures in your calculations?
Inferno313
Banned
It will? I imagine that, yeah, AAA western third party support will remain poor through the system's lifespan. I also imagine that much of the Japanese third-party support that both the 3DS and Vita got, as well as a lot of the indie support that Vita got, will make it's way to the Switch. This thing is gonna be killer for low-mid budget Japanese games.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
We were right about the Wii U, though.
Alex_Mexico
Member
I'll be shocked if this thing outsells the Gamecube, let alone double that number to surpass 40 million.
PopcornMegaphone
Banned
I'll take the through 2020 over/under at 18m. That assumes Nintendo lowers the price, adds tablet functions and puts 3ds type ip games on it.
ronaldthump
Member
the switch is way more unappealing as a product than wii U. Wii U, people got confused about but it certainly did not have the widespread negative response to it that Switch has. Switch, I think is way more unappealing for a whole deluge of reasons
DecoReturns
Member
I can see 40 mil.
If they got there first party support in blast and there usual Japanese thrid party support. So the Switch looks like it's going to have a much better first year then the Wii U in terms of games
If they got there first party support in blast and there usual Japanese thrid party support. So the Switch looks like it's going to have a much better first year then the Wii U in terms of games
hemo memo
Gold Member
Becuase the Switch is marketed and sold as a home console.
Dark Cloud
Member
I can't wait to come back to this topic at the end of 2020. Please I want everyone to remember this topic and by December 2020 I'm sure we'll look back at this topic and have a good laugh.
2017 lineup is small, but when big 3DS franchises land on Switch [and they will], millions of customers will surely come. There is zero chance that franchises like Monster Hunter, Pokemon and many others will not attract many fans, especially in Japan.
I have many reservations about the pricing and offered servies, but when games come, so will the customers. It's really shame that many parts of the console offering are not to my liking.
All will be well if 3DS devs move to Switch, plus the console will get the full focus of Nintendo's teams. As for support from west... I don't think it will be strong. Only indies.
But it's also a proper handheld and people/gamers know that. Eventually Nintendo will ditch the 3ds fully for this and all their handheld games will move here.
Inferno313
Banned
I think you'd have to be getting your gaming opinions solely from GAF to feel that way. The mainstream reaction to this thing is completely unlike the reaction the Wii U got. Anecdotal, I know, but the initial trailer was all over my Facebook and Twitter, from plenty of people who haven't played a Nintendo console in years.
The reaction to the Switch is significantly less toxic if you look just about anywhere other than GAF.
This is precisely the confusion that Nintendo should have avoided.
What is the Switch competing with? Is it a home console? If so, then it's overpriced against a more powerful PS4 and Xbox One, that each have a much stronger lineup and 3rd party support.
Or is it a handheld? If so, then maybe it's price is more justified.
The fact that it's straddling the line between both could potentially do more harm for sales than good. Traditionally things that try to do multiple things well, rather than one thing great, have suffered because of it. I'm looking at you, Xbox One.
wait that's just demonstrably not true
Buggy Loop
Member
Gaf's opinion is about as valid as Patcher's, aka shit.
Friendly reminder
https://www.reddit.com/r/NintendoSw...tch/?ref=search_posts&st=IY61S22V&sh=b84a00e8
Gaf was negative on DS, on Wii. On pretty much anything actually, except "the favorite of this gen" like 360 or now, the ps4. The concept of a 2nd winner, a 2nd console, is failure for Gaf
orthodoxy1095
Banned
Pokemon can look pretty good with very little trouble.
So yeah, Game Freak made interesting choices.
The Hermit
Member
m.i.s.
Banned
This is correct.
Compared to previous handhelds and even the price of the 3DS post price cut, the price of Switch is astronomical.
The price of Switch games compared to the cost of handheld games is also high.
There is no way -- just no way -- that Switch will get a Pokemon exclusive.
Polygonal_Sprite
Gold Member
Even the most pessimistic of people on here didn't expect sub 15 million.
Delusibeta
Banned
Eh. As it currently stands, my gut tells me that this is kinda optimistic, assuming no quick price cut. If there's a price cut before the end of the year, then this projection becomes decidedly more plausible.
LordRaptor
Member
I think GAF are lowballing expectations pretty severely, but 40m in 3 years is way better than the Xbox One could manage, which seems overly optimistic.
Yeah that's definitely a new one. The WiiU reception was horrendous at every level, and thats after two separate E3 presentations on the device before it launched.
Father_Brain
Banned
Plausible, though could also end up being significantly less. I can't see it selling much more than 40M by the end of 2020, though.
DeuceGamer
Member
This version of the Switch is a hybrid. Nothing to say there isn't a HH only version released in a year or 2 that does not include the dock and sales for a much lower price.
If that happens it will still count towards the Switch total.
3ds games are cheaper and it became 150 cheaper than switch only 4 months in. If you tell me that Nintento will cut the price by 100$, 10000¥, 100€, this year, you might have a point, otherwise no.
Not to mention that the smartphone market as only become stronger since 2011 and the dedicated handheld's weaker.
Barry Burton
Member
Oh, I don't think that's the case at all. Wii U was coming out at the end of a historically long generation, and the last thing anyone wanted was an overpriced Xbox 360 with bad first- and third-party support. When that 2012 E3 presser ended, I had absolutely no idea who that console was supposed to appeal to. The Wii U didn't just look bad next to the PS4 and XBO, it looked bad next to the PS3 and 360. It was the wrong product at the wrong time, with very little demand from either consumers or developers. It was a disaster even before factoring in the brand confusion.
Nintendo might still very well fuck up the Switch as far as making it not a true hybrid and treating it more as a console, but even if they do, I still don't think it's nearly as unappealing as the Wii U was.
Inferno313
Banned
The Xbox One is not an example of what a successful console can do, because it's not a successful console. The fact that the WiiU has been hanging out with an even more atrocious market-share is blinding people to that fact.
PSFan
Member
But 60 million 3DS sold does not mean 60 million people bought it. 13 million Wii U means close to 13 million bought it.
cubicle47b
Member
This is in line with 3DS numbers. With a smaller form factor at $200 or less next year it's very doable.
Dark Cloud
Member
The problem is we don't know what revisions are coming. Will there be a more powerful Switch tablet to sell on its own? Will there be a smaller more portable Switch tablet with no home console dock that's cheaper to sell on its own in the future? Price drops?
I have a point because it's the successor to the 3ds, even if they aren't marketing it as such yet :shrug:
I'm expecting 20M on the low end and 35M on the high end in thst timeframe. I would be surprised to see it significantly higher or lower than that.
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