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In line with my prediction, so I agree with them (below the 3DS but above the Gamecube).

Pokémon, Monster Hunter, Animal Crossing will sell gangbusters.

 

[chrominance]

I have no real way to judge if 40 million units is really a ridiculous number or not (versus 30 million or 10 million or whatever), but it doesn't feel like one. It might be high, but not unreasonably so. Switch's big issues at launch are cost and software lineup, and both of those are things that can be fixed over the long run. I'll be shocked if Nintendo doesn't at least address the former at some point. I'll be somewhat less shocked if Nintendo manages to screw the pooch on software, given the Wii U and late-stage Wii, but if the 3DS does sunset and all that dev work moves to Switch, then Nintendo's in a good spot to bulk up their library. Mainline Fire Emblem returning to console is a good start.

I think it's easy to confuse Switch's launch and immediate post-launch outlook with its long-term performance. Even if the launch looks awful, that doesn't mean the Switch won't ever be successful. The 3DS is proof of that. So is the PS3.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Sorry, but no.

 

[Dark Cloud]

Sure but how many will you see sit and play a game?

In Japan easily. Idk but the poster said it wouldn't sell 15 million by 2020.

With Pokémon, Animal Crossing, Yokai Watch, Nintendos handheld and console IPs on one system it will easily do 15 million by 2020. With price drops and revisions it will push sales.

 

[opricnik]

You were one of the parents who bought a cheap 2DS last year with Pokemon Stars Moon for your kids. Switch is actually easier for smaller kids to use than a 3DS, due to the joycons and stand. I would also not underestimate the two controllers that are suitable for kids - for games like Splatoon2, MK8 Deluxe, Super Bombermam, Snipperclips, Skylanders, Fast RMX, LEGO City Undercover, Puyo Puyo Tetris, Sonic Mania, Shovel Knight etc the device and control scheme is a much better value than 3DS at launch.
Lets also not forget the evergreen kid title Minecraft is coming to the Switch this year and will never launch on 3DS

Its no surprise that Parental Controls video is in the top 5 most watched videos in several Nintendo channels.

All games you listed are much more pricey then 3DS ones. "mama i want new pokomen," mama looks catelogue says 60$ for game and online being paid another 60$ish too.

They will rather get another 3DS game

 

[Neff]

Doable.

 

[Ninja Dom]

General audience dont give F bout nintendo products anymore if its not on their phone.

lol at people who thinks only reason Wii U failed was Marketing /Confusion.

Nah son its not the major reason Wii U failed.

What the fuck is this?

General audience don't care for Pokémon and Mario on console? Mario Kart 8 selling 8 million units on a dying system at the time?

 

[Gabe3208]

Even 10 million by 2020 seems impossible. The reaction on GAF is what, 90-95% fiercely negative? You keep seeing people over and over say they are cancelling their preorders even. No way the first day will sell through with all those cancellations either at this point honestly.

1-1.5 mil of the initial 2 million day one sold out is a safe bet yeah?

That's your problem, you're looking at what a bunch of negative Nancy's say when GAF is but a tiny collection of gamers from the overall pie.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Excellent summary of my thoughts.

Who's palms did they grease to get this optimistic-as-all-fucks report issued?

 

[Neoweee]

Switch is an unprecedented type of system- I don't think anyone can really predict how it will end up, other than some pretty reasonable guesses (more than Wii U, less than DS/Wii).

Between Wii U & DS/Wii is like the 99% confidence interval on this thing.

 

[Guymelef]

Switch is going to do 3DS numbers at a minimum

People forget about the Pokemans

Yeah, 3DS has the Pokemans and still has sold less than half of NDS sales.

Switch could have the Pokemans and sell half of 3DS sales.

 

[jett]

What? No.

 

[Majmun]

People won't buy this because it's a hybrid. If Nintendo wants the handheld crowd, they'll have to do this again. Otherwise it will fail as a handheld.

But I don't see Nintendo doing something like that again. So I don't think it'll ever reach 3DS numbers.

 

[Skittzo0413]

I'm surprised to see people saying that's conservative. That seems like a possibly attainable goal if they price-cut smartly and work hard on third party relations.

But conservative? Nah.

I'm quoting the article itself which calls this conservative. I would think this is a number Nintendo would be fairly happy with.

 

[mario_O]

Nintendo are now competing in the portable side with much cheaper tablets, phones, and super cheap games from ios/android. And in the home console side with cheaper consoles that are much more powerful and with a great library of games. This mid-gen release is definitely going to hurt them. Also, WiiU owners won't upgrade any time soon. Right now it's a port fest.

 

[NSESN]

Are the people who are projecting Switch sales based on 3DS performance forgetting that the 3DS had to be price cut to nearly half of what the Switch will retail for?

There are many factors here, first we don't know if Nintendo will make cheaper handheld only and home only consoles. Second, we don't know how well the one platform only will work for Nintendo.

 

[orthodoxy1095]

Gaf thought the Wii would be a failure too. Nintendo is hard to predict. Switch could fail like the Gamecube or Wii U, but it could also be wildly successful a la GBA, DS, Wii, 3DS.

And GAF thought the Wii U would be a failure. So where does that leave us on the prediction barometer?

I'm not sure why people keep bringing up the Wii argument, especially when it's being made by people who weren't even around at the time.

 

[Busty]

When this sells worse than the WiiU did I genuinely fear for the well being of the hardcore Nintendo fans.

I remember all those WiiU threads before it launched and this is exactly the same thing.

 

[Dark Cloud]

What the fuck is this?

General audience don't care for Pokémon and Mario on console? Mario Kart 8 selling 8 million units on a dying system at the time?

It's called trolling or general hatred for Nintendo. Just ignore that poster.

 

[Yukinari]

The best part is if Pokemon Stars does come out it probably will be on both systems.

 

[Shredderi]

So it would do better than the PS4? No chances of that happening.

 

[momshotdad]

With Pokemon: easily.

 

[KORNdoggy]

half it and i imagine it'll be more accurate.

 

[Plinko]

This is Nintendo's only hardware over the next 3 years. No more dedicated handhelds. No more dedicated consoles. This is their future.

Combining numbers, I don't think it's unfeasible to think it hits 40 million by 2020 (although I'd probably go 2021 or 2022), especially with a mainline Pokemon game as well as new Mario Kart and Animal Crossing games most likely in the next three years. It will also most likely see a price drop along side an SCD upgrade around that timeframe, which would probably boost sales a bit.

 

[Muzicfreq]

I work in a hospital and see people playing on their phones daily and kids with their 3DS a few times a week

And I work in a mall and I see kids vaping all day not giving an f about anything or they,re trashing the place and running from security... Kek.
I did see a 3ds and had streetpass snag some Mirai DX player cards... Was only like 2 though lol

 

[Calm Mind]

When you use this gif incorrectly, you make everyone look bad.

 

[opricnik]

What the fuck is this?

General audience don't care for Pokémon and Mario on console? Mario Kart 8 selling 8 million units on a dying system at the time?

Those are die hard nintendo fans. Yes there are likely 10 million of them. Not big surprise though.


10M is not gonna save Nintendo

 

[kswiston]

Yeah, 3DS has the Pokemans and still has sold less than half of NDS sales.

Each of the 3DS pokemon games will also end up at about 20-25% of 3DS' total sales. You don't need a 65-70M install base to support Pokemon.

 

[March of the Crabs]

Seems like many people on GAF feel they know more than a market research firm. Interesting.

This is right in line with my predictions but I admit that my predictions were just a random number that I pulled out of nowhere.

 

[Dark Cloud]

So it would do better than the PS4? No chances of that happening.

How is that doing better than PS4 bruh? It said 40 mil in about 4 years. PS4 is over 55 million in a little over 3 years.

 

[zelas]

That's seems like a hell of a drop off from Wii U + 3DS double dippers.

 

[Elandyll]

So it would do better than the PS4? No chances of that happening.

? 10.6m /yr average in almost 4 yrs is not better than PS4 in any way, shape or form...

Switch prediction: 40m in 45 months (March 2017 -> December 2020)
PS4 actual: 53.4m in 38 months (Nov 2013 -> Dec 2016)

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Switch's success depends almost entirely on whether or not it's Nintendo's only platform moving forward. If another dedicated handheld is released from Nintendo (highly unlikely), it's going to struggle.

 

[CosmicQueso]

That forecast is certainly optimistic, 10m heavy imo.

 

[Zombie James]

Over ten million per year? Ehhh, I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[StoopKid]

Switch is going to do 3DS numbers at a minimum

People forget about the Pokemans

At $360? Lol

 

[guek]

And I work in a mall and I see kids vaping all day not giving an f about anything or they,re trashing the place and running from security... Kek.
I did see a 3ds and had streetpass snag some Mirai DX player cards... Was only like 2 though lol

You asked, no reason to be such a douche when you get an answer

 

[opricnik]

Seems like many people on GAF feel they know more than a market research firm. Interesting.

This is right in line with my predictions but I admit that my predictions were just a random number that I pulled out of nowhere.

I am pretty sure if they suggest Xbone will sell 100 million in end of 2020 most of if not all gaf knows better then them.

 

[Guymelef]

Each of the 3DS pokemon games will also end up at about 20-25% of 3DS' total sales. You don't need a 65-70M install base to support Pokemon.

So 20M LTD would cover all Pokemon fans.

 

[onemanasylum]

Nintendo just announced a bunch of 3ds games and said it isn't going anywhere...

 

[GabeTheGrouch76]

40 million in three years seems implausible to me for a product like the Switch. I think the Switch is more likely to sell roughly half of that number (20-25 million) by 2020 to be honest.

 

[TheJoRu]

It's basically impossible to say at this point whether I think it's a good prediction or not; it's so far off and the thing hasn't even launched. It'd be a pretty solid, if unremarkable, number to hit by 2020. I think that's all I could say about it. I hope Nintendo succeeds.

 

[Mokujin]

I'm going to try save this thread for the future, people forget so fast Wii or DS prelaunches, both products were way worse and look how those turned out.

Not saying that Switch will trail them, but so many people laughing at 40m in 4 years whithout thinking how Nintendo will be adjusting pricing going forward, software catalogue will get better, or the obvious Switch mini being released in 2018 or 2019.

Certainly I look forward for the sales threads these next years, is going to be fun (again).

 

[Peltz]

40 million seems optimistic but not impossible.

To be honest, whether this thing sells is very hard to feel out right now.

 

[Iced Arcade]

If it was priced correctly and had a steady flow of big titles then sure I could see it.


being priced near consoles that are a lot more powerful is going to be a hard sale to sell after the initial hardcore nintendo fans buy in.

 

[Shiggy]

Gaf thought the Wii would be a failure too. Nintendo is hard to predict. Switch could fail like the Gamecube or Wii U, but it could also be wildly successful a la GBA, DS, Wii, 3DS.

And GAF thought the X1 and Wii U would be a failure and PS4 would be a success. 3:1 for GAF

It really depends on whether Nintendo can bring the price down and deliver on software. Right now, the outlook is rather grim, but thinks can change.

DFC estimated the Wii U to sell around 25 mio after revising it's estimate in late 2013.

 

[Neoweee]

For me, the lowest reasonable estimate is 3DS/DS/GBA level numbers, halved.

Average of 3DS/DS/GBA +/-50% is probably like the 90% confidence interval for this thing. Too many people here are extremely confident on low-ball estimates.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

And? It's a hybrid system and those aren't.

I think most of the market won't care. Most gamers are only playing in consoles/PC or only on portables/mobile. It's a pretty hardcore niche that's into games seriously enough to need both options.

Nintnedo's banking on their concept and marketing changing that. Maybe they will. I'm skeptical though.

To the console/pc crowd it's underpowered, lacking storage and over priced due to the screen/tablet form factor they don't care about.

For the portable crowd it's expensive (3DS and Vita failed at $250), bulky and not great on battery life. $300 is especially a lot for parents wanting a portable to babysit the kids while not hogging a TV compared to past portables or just giving them a handle down phone/tablet. There's also a risk of the library focusing too much on console games than more pick up and play mobile games and we already saw how that worked for Sony Trying to sell the Vita as playing console experiences like Uncharted on the go.

I'm getting one day one as I love Nintendo games. But as console only (or 95%+) gamer I'm not happy about the price and lack of storage in the box. If it was a Sony or MS machine I'd give it a hard pass as I don't like their exclusives enough to put up with hardware I found a bad value.

While harder to market, I'd have much preferred they have just gone with separate consoles and portables that shared games so they could be cheaper and not had to make so many compromises from trying to be a jack of all trades.

 

[noshten]

All games you listed are much more pricey then 3DS ones. "mama i want new pokomen," mama looks catelogue says 60$ for game and online being paid another 60$ish too.

They will rather get another 3DS game

We shall see, mama currently might be spending a lot on in-app purchases or wants a system with better parental control or a system mama can play together with her kid.

 

[Muzicfreq]

You asked, no reason to be such a douche when you get an answer

Wasn't trying to be. But I think a mall where one is likely to visit is a better guage than a hospital where patients play the waiting game.

I'm just saying