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[Caipirinha]

Context:

• Global economic stagnation with enormous wealth inequality

• Likely banking crisis within 3-5 years

• Right wing populist elected POTUS

• Britain leaving the EU under mainly anti-immigration sentiment, faces serious economic decline

And now imagine that Le Pen of the Front National is elected President of France in May.

What happens in the next 5 years? Does the EU survive? Does the Euro survive? If not, what are the knock on global effects?



I have my own predictions but keen to hear what others think we are in store for.

 

[blame space]

is this the guy who makes the pens

 

[Slaythe]

Just so people realize, if France bails out on the Eu, the Eu's dead.

There's no recovery from that.

 

[Caipirinha]

is this the guy who makes the pens

If she wins she will be one of 3 or 4 people who will decide the kind of world you live in for the remainder of your life, regardless of where you live.

Just so people realize, if France bails out on the Eu, the Eu's dead.

There's no recovery from that.

^ This is as close to a certainty as it gets.

 

[Slaythe]

is this the guy who makes the pens

No.

It's not exactly true but to give you the idea, she's the female version of Trump, running for french presidency.

Has ties with Putin. Supports Trump. Is anti EU and loves the UK for leaving it.

 

[kamspy]

Germany may decide to start a third world war.

The teams are actually shaping up to be the same!

 

[andythinkpad]

Europe had a couple chances to unify after the Roman empire and never did, this EU post-nation state organism is very bureaucratic and inefficient. The break up of EU is a matter of time.

 

[Jazz573]

Lol at people not knowing about blame space. This is his schtick.

On-Topic:

EU dies.

 

[Gutek]

EU dies.
Merkel is the leader of the free world.
Russia will start meddling in the former Soviet Union and Middle East.
China will emerge as a powerhouse for tech and innovation.

 

[Tall4Life]

Riots and fascism.

 

[Caipirinha]

Europe had a couple chances to unify after the Roman empire and never did, this EU post-nation state organism is very bureaucratic and inefficient. The break up of EU is a matter of time.

To be fair I think the people of Europe have come a long way towards a feeling of mutual Europeanness and solidarity, the problem is that the EU as a project was very quickly hijacked by neoliberalism and at this point is basically just a rubber stamp for whatever the big banks and industry want to do.

Naturally that has resulted in income inequality and worker insecurity and the subsequent anger has been diverted to "bad old days" scapegoating of minorities.

But the responsibility of that primarily lies with the political establishment across Europe over the last 40 years, particularly the centre-left. Nobody really considers the left as an alternative anymore because the centre-left and centre-right have spent the last few decades to absolutely anything they can to destroy the left and any interest in it - now all that people see as an alternative is the far right.

EU dies.
Merkel is the leader of the free world.

This relies on Merkel surviving the fallout, she's already under a lot of pressure from the German far right. That said it does seem like Germany will be one of the few powerful countries that won't completely lose the plot, despite being significantly responsible for this mess.

Question: do people think that if the EU collapses with a Frexit, there will be some kind of tightly integrated union between Germany and it's bestest buddies in Europe left behind?

 

[Machina]

Dark and dangerous times ahead. Keep your loved ones close

 

[Ishan]

Just so people realize, if France bails out on the Eu, the Eu's dead.

There's no recovery from that.

This I can agree with

 

[mo60]

No.

It's not exactly true but to give you the idea, she's the female version of Trump, running for french presidency.

Has ties with Putin. Supports Trump. Is anti EU and loves the UK for leaving it.

She doean't openly support him much I don't think she talks much about him directly in her speeches, but his movement usually.

Even if le pen got incredibly lucky and won the french presidential election there won't be a frexit unless the french parliament agrees to it which is unlikely since le pen's party has well under 1% of the seats in the french parliament and it's impossible for her party to get a majority in the french parliamentary elections after the presidential election since her party has no organization to propel them to seats in the french parliament.

 

[Pop-O-Matic]

All of continental Europe will be annexed by Russia

 

[i_am_ben]

Europe had a couple chances to unify after the Roman empire and never did, this EU post-nation state organism is very bureaucratic and inefficient. The break up of EU is a matter of time.

If there's one thing that history has taught us it's that bureaucracies have a way of surviving.

 

[Caipirinha]

She doean't openly support him because the french people don't like trump much. I don't think she talks much about him directly in her speeches, but his movement usually.

Her party has roots going way back to Vichy, they're dyed in the wool neo-fascists on their best behaviour until the election. Trump is just a runaway ego, I don't think he has any particularly strong political views on anything.

I think the far right of Europe just see Trump has a bizarre force of nature that they will attempt to use to their advantage when possible, but not a genuine ally in their ideological agenda.

 

[Ether_Snake]

What gives her a chance to win is the collapse of the socialists. They are sick of having to keep voting right to get center-right or worst in return.

Economically FN is now pretty much left of center, especially compared to the other parties.

Many people on the left see minorities as conservatives; religious, anti-abortion, anti-taxes, pro-private education, anti-LGBT, anti-women, etc. They try to get their votes if they're poor, but when they move up economically many of the left see them as conservative voters.

I think this time Le Pen will play on that and get enough of their votes to make this really close.

The best hope France has is getting someone who can outplay her on economic issues.

 

[mo60]

What gives her a chance to win is the collapse of the socialists. They are sick of having to keep voting right to get center-right or worst in return.

Economically FN is now pretty much left of center, especially compared to the other parties.

Many people on the left see minorities as conservatives; religious, anti-abortion, anti-taxes, pro-private education, anti-LGBT, anti-women, etc. They try to get their votes if they're poor, but when they move up economically many of the left see them as conservative voters.

I think this time Le Pen will play on that and get enough of their votes to make this really close.

The best hope France has is getting someone who can outplay her on economic issues.

Yeah. I think this election will be a lot closer then the 2002 one,but I still expect her to lose in a blowout which has not been seen since the 2002 election.

 

[Slaythe]

1) If she holds her own in the debates

2) if there is ANY terrorist attack again

She instantly gets +10% intention votes.

And she is already past 30% (supposedly).

So it's all very scary.

 

[mo60]

1) If she holds her own in the debates

2) if there is ANY terrorist attack again

She instantly gets +10% intention votes.

And she is already past 30% (supposedly).

So it's all very scary.

If it was someone else besides Le Pen running on the FN banner I would be worried, but le pen's ties to her father despite her potential opponent's flaws should help sink her along with her other flaws. I actually more worried about the Dutch election right now.

 

[Electric Eye]

Germany may decide to start a third world war.

The teams are actually shaping up to be the same!

Nope, its like reverse WWII this time.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Funny that I always used to think EU was this liberal utopia compared to the US and it turns out they just didn't have to coexist with enough brown people this whole time. Ask 'em to do that and they go straight for the crazy nationalists. Not that we're much better.

 

[Caipirinha]

Funny that I always used to think EU was this liberal utopia compared to the US and it turns out they just didn't have to coexist with enough brown people this whole time. Ask 'em to do that and they go straight for the crazy nationalists. Not that we're much better.

Large parts of Europe have been extremely diverse for a long time, the issue in Europe is the same as anywhere, including the US: when working and middle class people become poorer, they look for someone to blame. When the establishment has destroyed the image of the left in the public's mind, that alternative becomes the far right by default.

The refugee crisis was just in the right place at the right time for the European right. If we hadn't just been hit by a global financial crisis and prolonged recession, there would be no Le Pen and no Brexit.

"Liberal" darlings like Obama and Blair helped seal this fate; they were liberal in name only, and right wing neoliberals in every way that matters.

 

[WhiteRabbitEXE]

Nope, its like reverse WWII this time.

Well, it is the same teams, it's just the sides are reversed.

Save us Germany, please.

 

[Torokil]

unironically

 

[Hypron]

She ain't gonna win but if she were to win it'd be a complete shitshow and I'd have to give up my French citizenship.

 

[SexyFish]

She ain't gonna win but if she were to win it'd be a complete shitshow and I'd have to give up my French citizenship.

We didn't think Trump would win either.

Shit can happen.

 

[Nokterian]

Just so people realize, if France bails out on the Eu, the Eu's dead.

There's no recovery from that.

Yeah also extreme right is on the rise in germany..we the netherlands got that fascist geert wilders being more populair every day but in the netherlands you can't be a leader if you can't form a coalition with other party's and not having a majority of seats..so that is standing in place but he must not become prime minister in our country at all.

 

[TeddyBoy]

If Le Pen wins the break up of the EU is certain, after that I'd say Russia using little green men in the Baltics is next, a return to small alliances in the rest of Europe and further far right gains in the Netherlands.

Europe had a couple chances to unify after the Roman empire and never did, this EU post-nation state organism is very bureaucratic and inefficient. The break up of EU is a matter of time.

When exactly where these chances to unify?

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

What makes you think there will be another five years of history?

 

[Mass_Pincup]

Le Pen winning will not obligatorily lead to the end of the EU.

She would need a referendum on the matter and the opinion of the EU is still favorable in France.

Relations will be harder though.

 

[Mac_Lane]

I don't think Le Pen can muster 50% of the votes, which she would need in a run-off.

But then again, 2016 happened...

Hoping that Macron is able to pull it off.

 

[Sorc3r3r]

Context:

• Global economic stagnation with enormous wealth inequality

• Likely banking crisis within 3-5 years

• Right wing populist elected POTUS

• Britain leaving the EU under mainly anti-immigration sentiment, faces serious economic decline

And now imagine that Le Pen of the Front National is elected President of France in May.

What happens in the next 5 years? Does the EU survive? Does the Euro survive? If not, what are the knock on global effects?



I have my own predictions but keen to hear what others think we are in store for.

The 4 points are a direct consequence of the failure to bring the good of the globalisation to the middle class in the west by the same people that wanted, promoted and led the globalisation both in economy and ethics for 20 years.


Europe will pay the biggest price, due to not having a clear, unified and independent vision , due to the lack of politicians with a global view of the needs of Europe as a whole and it's place in the world, the major culprits of this in these years have been Angela Merkel and Sarkozy first Holland after, totally unfit for the times and the challenges they faced, we are going to pay the price.

What I see it's the EU going into pieces, if Italy begins to shake a little more everything will go bad very fast.

Le Pen will not be elected, as usual in France the temporary presidential alliance between left and right will cut any chance for her to be elected.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The pendulum swings hard and fast. If Trump is despised in Europe, his representation of far right populism will bring down those movements in the same way that European politicians used Bush.

Think back to the changes in the last 16 years alone. People's moods are changing rapidly.

 

[LewieP]

Five years is optimistic.

 

[Smooth Operator]

It's not happening (100% sure), but if it happens yeah, we're screwed.

We didn't think Trump would win either.

Shit can happen.

The candidate with the most votes is elected in France tho'

 

[Hypron]

We didn't think Trump would win either.

Shit can happen.

She's polling a lot worse than Trump though. Our system is better than the US' too, two rounds and no electoral college. She's also not representing a big party like the Republicans and won't get 40% of the vote just for showing up. It's not a 0% chance but it's very unlikely.

 

[Linkstrikesback]

Just so people realize, if France bails out on the Eu, the Eu's dead.

There's no recovery from that.

France and England leaving will fuck it royally.

Maybe we need a ww3 in Europe to remind people of part of the reason we need the EU rather than hating each other because they're born in slightly different places...

 

[Xe4]

The pendulum swings hard and fast. If Trump is despised in Europe, his representation of far right populism will bring down those movements in the same way that European politicians used Bush.

Think back to the changes in the last 16 years alone. People's moods are changing rapidly.

This is the best we can hope for. Still, the election is three months away. A lot can happen in any direction. People didn't think Le Pen would make it this far, and here she is.

She's polling a lot worse than Trump though. Our system is better than the US' too, two rounds and no electoral college. She's also not representing a big party like the Republicans and won't get 40% of the vote just for showing up. It's not a 0% chance but it's very unlikely.

She's only polling a few points below Fillon. If he can get a left-right coalition for the second round (which is what most people beleive will happen), he can win in a landslide. However, nothing is assured. Trump ran 3-10 points behind Clinton the entire time, and he's our president now.

 

[azyless]

She's only polling a few points below Fillon.

Not in 2nd round polls. She's at around 35% (against either Macron or Fillon).

 

[Joni]

Germany says fuck it, conquers France again. The UK and the US don't care. No World War 3.

 

[Alx]

What gives her a chance to win is the collapse of the socialists. They are sick of having to keep voting right to get center-right or worst in return.

A true collapse of the socialists (primaries are running right now) is actually the worst case scenario for Le Pen. If they don't get enough voters, Macron will come in stronger, and Le Pen might be unable to reach second round.
It's unlikely though.

 

[TheWasTheJoke]

Likely

EU collapses, economic trouble.
Anti-Muslim policies become the Norm

Unlikely

Russian invasion
GFC.2
WW3

 

[chugen]

not gonna happen anyway, everyone will vote against lepen like in 2002

 

[Slaythe]

Le Pen winning will not obligatorily lead to the end of the EU.

She would need a referendum on the matter and the opinion of the EU is still favorable in France.

Relations will be harder though.

It never was favorable in France though.

French people voted AGAINST it and the people in power decided to go against that vote.

So if Le Pen becomes president, not only would it mean a majority of people would want to bail out of EU, but it would also mean Lepen can host a referendum and ignore it too to honor "the first one".

 

[KonradLaw]

EU is too valuable to fall apart. Without it the whole Europe is fucked - both economically as well as in ability to withstand the pressure from outside powers.

I expect Brexit to end up complete diseaster for UK in such a big way that it will scare everybody else shitless. This might bury the chances of populists winning or at worst case scenario, make they loose the EU-exit referendums even if they do get into power.

I expect the next 5 years to be both turbulent and stagnant at the same time. Shit will be going down heavily, but mostly inside EU countries. This will be such a mess that nobody will have the strenght to bother with EU and it will just remain exactly like it is. After the mess is over and things calm down I expect some sort of EU-effort that will make the union a bit looser politically and focused mostly on economical side.

 

[Steel]

Seeing as France is mostly on nuclear, at least she can't fuck up on global warming policy.

But, to be serious, the eu collapsing and an economic crisis that would put the last recession to shame.

 

[Alx]

It never was favorable in France though.

French people voted AGAINST it and the people in power decided to go against that vote.
.

French people voted against the European constitution. They didn't vote against EU in general. As a matter of fact, many of those who voted against the constitution did it to get more EU, not less (which is stupid, but they were convinced they would get a "plan B" that would be better).

 

[Drazgul]

Germany may decide to start a third world war.

The teams are actually shaping up to be the same!

Germany says fuck it, conquers France again. The UK and the US don't care. No World War 3.

With what army? The Bundeswehr is completely neutered.