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[Jisgsaw]

It's highly hypothetical obviously. If Le Pen were to win, there'd be a significant chance that France would leave the EU. Should be considered that she is not some kind of Queen, there is still the legislative that could probably stop most of what she would try to do.
If Frexit happened though, I'd say a complete dissolution of the EU is actually quite unlikely. It would either just continue to exist as EU26 (i.e. current EU minus UK and France) or, in the very worst case, it would be a much smaller Union comprised of, say, the BeNeLux countries, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Finland, and Ireland. I'm actually not seeing any real possibility that for example Spain would be like "Oh well, France left, so we'll leave too", and the same is true for many countries.

This is all highly unlikely, but IF France leaves the EU, Schengen would look weird with this big hole between Germany and Spain...

If France goes out under Le Pen though it seems they are putting themselves in a weird position if they don't include themselves in another Franco-German (with Benelux as binding middle partner) coalition.

I'd love to see how she spins this. Because yes, France is fucked witrhout some kind ogf union, most obviously with Germany.

Spoiler

I wouldn't love to see that enough for wanting Le Pen to win though.

France deserves every bit of credit for what it did in WWI

IMO, no one deserves any credit for WWI. God, what a waste.

 

[PowerTaxi]

Last time it was around 80%. French love the presidential election, it always has the highest tournout. Of couse, the highest it is, the less favorable it is for Le Pen.

Ah ok, that make me more hopeful.

 

[More Fun To Compute]

More major economies playing beggar thy neighbour when Trump just made mercantilism the national goal of the USA and Theresa May made a statement saying that if the EU deals harshly with Britain then the UK will have no option but to play beggar thy neighbour. Not to mention that China is already playing this game to the point where their nationalist policies are threatening the stability of western democracy.

Nationalists of different western nations are all buddy buddy right now but when things turn sour they will turn on each other like they always do.

 

[The Hermit]

Just so people realize, if France bails out on the Eu, the Eu's dead.

There's no recovery from that.

Yup, Germany wouldn't want to hold burden by itself.

To be honest though, I don't see much future in the EU regardless who win in France.

 

[benjipwns]

IMO, no one deserves any credit for WWI. God, what a waste.

If anything, France could have at least not backed Russia's irrational guarantee to a separate third party.

And Germany could have backed off instead of egging on Austria-Hungary.

And...god I hate that war.

 

[Frankfurter]

Edit: For WW1 let's just agree that it was an incredibly stupid war. Actors all around were so damn stupid and everyone thought they'd win the war in an instant.

Yup, Germany wouldn't want to hold burden by itself.

To be honest though, I don't see much future in the EU regardless who win in France.

Why not?

 

[benjipwns]

I could see the base core aspect of the EU staying while the rest, as presently constructed, crumbling apart while being re-assembled on the side as some other institutions that wind up looking very similar and maybe even subsuming functions. Same with the UN.

 

[DasPenguin]

We didn't think Trump would win either.

Shit can happen.

To be fair, he didn't win the election. I can't believe there is a nation where a candidate can win the majority vote by 3 million people and still lose. Democracy and freedom, aren't these the things that America is so proud of? Yet you aren't very good at either.

 

[Alx]

To be fair, he didn't win the election. I can't believe there is a nation where a candidate can win the majority vote by 3 million people and still lose. Democracy and freedom, aren't these the things that America is so proud of? Yet you aren't very good at either.

The funny thing is that Le Pen would have higher chances of being president of a EU federation similar to US, than being president of France.
(not that much higher though, apparently she also struggles to get support from he "fellow" eurosceptic parties all over Europe)

 

[benjipwns]

To be fair, he didn't win the election. I can't believe there is a nation where a candidate can win the majority vote by 3 million people and still lose. Democracy and freedom, aren't these the things that America is so proud of? Yet you aren't very good at either.

First past the post isn't the only form of democratic elections.

I can't think of any other kind, for example a country that used two-rounds to get a majority vote winner, just as a completely random example. But I'm sure they're out there.

 

[Green Yoshi]

With what army? The Bundeswehr is completely neutered.

This will all change under chancellor Höcke. Neonazis were the only ones who praised Trumps speech yesterday.

Le Pen will never be in power, Macron will be the next French President.

German media predict François Fillon as the next president.

 

[FDC1]

Fillon is the current favorite (Le Pen and he are around 25% in the surveys for the first round and he'll easily win the 2nd against her). Macron is on the rise, nearly 20%. He's actually the big question mark of this election (we deal with Le Pens since 50 years in France).

 

[Xando]

- France leaves EU
- EU crumbles
- Germany + Benelux + Austria create a follow up organisation and start to federalize, Scandinavia, Portugal/Spain and Ireland join organisation but won't federalize.
- Brexit becomes a disaster, UK has new elections and Michael Gove becomes PM thanks to UKIP support
- Economic crisis happens
-> Italy and Greece default
- NATO begins to crumble
- Russia supports "seperatists" in the baltics installing friendly politicians as leader, NATO won't intervene and is disbanded because of it.
- Federalized "Middle Europe" state becomes nuclear power and massively increased defense budget
- President Le Pen also increases budget in fear of "German threat"

 

[CrunchyB]

I've only started to see this kind of hate and abuse thrown at us around 2002-2003 with the war in Iraq

Correct, just like that other gem of a meme, "freedom fries".

99% of the time it's coming from some american cunt who knows nothing about History and who probably couldn't find his own country on a fucking map.

Also correct. It's also embarrassing because of the pivotal role France played in their fight against the British for independence.

It even pisses me off and I usually have no qualms about mocking the French.

Spoiler

bunch of arrogant frog eaters

 

[Alx]

Fillon is the current favorite (Le Pen and he are around 25% in the surveys for the first round and he'll easily win the 2nd against her). Macron is on the raise, nearly 20%. He's actually the big question mark of this election (we deal with Le Pens since 50 years in France).

Yeah if there was to be a "Trump effect" on the French election (aka "unexpected wildcard with a last minute surge in popularity") it would be with Macron. Although many also expect him to crumble before the first round, like Bayrou did in 2002. Mélenchon is also trying his luck with that strategy, and isn't doing too bad everything considered (popularity among the young, decent YouTube communication,...) but he's still very far from passing the first round.
Truth is there are much too many unknowns right now, the candidates haven't even started detailing their programs (assuming we even knew the final list of candidates, which we don't). As a matter of fact the FN is the only known value of this election right now. Their ratings are consistent, and never really moved much. While all other candidates, including Fillon, had their ups and downs.

 

[Patrick Bateman]

Germany says fuck it, conquers France again. The UK and the US don't care. No World War 3.

Not even Germany wants France anymore.

 

[Neo C.]

Hard to predict other than chaos and economic inbalance. As always, when the world goes nuts, Switzerland will probably be able to make some good profits though.

 

[Frankfurter]

This is all highly unlikely, but IF France leaves the EU, Schengen would look weird with this big hole between Germany and Spain...

Yeah. Plus the EU as a whole would look crappy with France missing :/

 

[Goro Majima]

France leaving the EU would be weird

France and Germany combined have made up the entire historical basis of the EU.

I think Europe on the whole in 5 years, regardless of Le Pen, is going to put an end to accepting refugees. It'd be an easy thing for even the left to embrace (since it seems to be the one major issue driving everything to the right) so they can get back to running their nations.

 

[Frankfurter]

France leaving the EU would be weird

France and Germany combined have made up the entire historical basis of the EU.

I think Europe on the whole in 5 years, regardless of Le Pen, is going to put an end to accepting refugees. It'd be an easy thing for even the left to embrace (since it seems to be the one major issue driving everything to the right) so they can get back to running their nations.

Uh? Technically speaking not even German AfD wants to stop accepting refugees totally.

 

[Goro Majima]

Uh? Technically speaking not even German AfD wants to stop accepting refugees totally.

Weird...I thought that was driving this whole thing besides Russian influence?

 

[Alx]

5 years is a long time. It's possible that by then we won't be discussing refugees but something else. Right now it's a hot topic because of the war in Syria, but who knows how it will fare in 2022...

 

[Frankfurter]

Weird...I thought that was driving this whole thing besides Russian influence?

Yeah, that's why I said "technically speaking". I do think their official line is that they'd still provide help for "real refugees", while all those "economic refugees" would be turned down. Now of course I'd fully expect them to basically label every single refugee as an economic refugee and therefore turn all of them down - if they ever came into power.

 

[Valhelm]

Large parts of Europe have been extremely diverse for a long time, the issue in Europe is the same as anywhere, including the US: when working and middle class people become poorer, they look for someone to blame. When the establishment has destroyed the image of the left in the public's mind, that alternative becomes the far right by default.

The refugee crisis was just in the right place at the right time for the European right. If we hadn't just been hit by a global financial crisis and prolonged recession, there would be no Le Pen and no Brexit.

"Liberal" darlings like Obama and Blair helped seal this fate; they were liberal in name only, and right wing neoliberals in every way that matters.

They weren't bad liberals, it's just that liberalism is inherently capitalistic. Technically speaking, Paul Ryan and Theresa May are liberals, as they ostensibly strive to reduce coercion in matters public and private. Their liberalism just does not include the social progressivism espoused by people usually identified as liberals.

Left-liberals like Obama and Blair pursue similar economic policies to their enemies across the aisle, but with a specific interest in promoting freedom of self-actualization by establishing a level playing field. Generally speaking, right-liberals do not recognize racism, misogyny, or other forms of social oppression as coercive forces which should be curbed.

Left-liberals are distinct from social democrats like Bernie Sanders, who believe state coercion should be used to promote justice and equality. Further to the left are socialists like Richard Wolff or Angela Davis, who believe capitalism should be supplanted by a more democratic economy not driven by greed.

 

[bak4fun]

Due to the political system in France, I don't think that Marine Le Pen winning is plausible.

But anyway, even if she did, to be able to govern in France it's not enough to be president, she has to have a majority during the legislative election following the presidential one to constitute a government that can pass laws, that seems really unlikely as, right now, the FN has 2 legislative votes for a total of 577. So either she finds a majority in the new assembly or she tries to change the rules of the election (which probably means changing constitution and a referendum) and try to have a new legislative election. In the mean time, she can try to govern without new laws but by using decree, but that can be challenged by French Justice system.
There is also other issue like the budget that has to be voted by the assembly, there is also the question of do the FN has enough qualified people to govern? (maybe), and how the people holding the higher function in the public sector will react, are they going to cooperate or not (I'd say yes but who knows)

So short answer : a lot of uncertainty, so basically same kind of consequence as the vote for brexit at first in any case, and if she can, death of Europe, change of the french institution/election (to be more favorable to the FN) and basically Brexit + Trump

 

[ianpm31]

I know shit can happen (Trump) but seriously what are the odds Le Pen gets elected?

 

[benjipwns]

I know shit can happen (Trump) but seriously what are the odds Le Pen gets elected?

Francois Hollande is not running again. He was the only one in any polls over the last few years to actually trail Le Pen head-to-head.

In the 2002 French election, Jacques Chirac and Le Pen's father got 20% and 17% in the first round respectively.

In the second round, Chirac got 82%, Le Pen got 18%.

It probably wouldn't be that lopsided, but something like 65%-35% seems around the median high for Le Pen.

 

[azyless]

I know shit can happen (Trump) but seriously what are the odds Le Pen gets elected?

Low. She'll probably get around 10% more in the 2nd round than what she gets in the 1st. Most people who aren't voting for her in the 1st round, aren't voting for her ever.
She's averaging around 35% against either Macron or Fillon in the polls.

 

[G.O.O.]

I know shit can happen (Trump) but seriously what are the odds Le Pen gets elected?

There are scenarios where she can win, none of them being likely at the moment. Two of the favorites would have to collapse, and our political class is conservative enough (as in, opposite of reckless) to not make campaign-killing mistakes.

 

[G.O.O.]

Also the stars aren't quite in position for her. She faces strong opposition from inside the party, mainly on economic issues, and said party is under investigation.

That and the cities they gained on last elections are so poorly managed that their counselors are fleeing one after another, which isn't exactly great advertising.

 

[MonsieurPaul]

The question is how far Putin is willing to go in this election.

 

[Mimosa97]

Correct, just like that other gem of a meme, "freedom fries".

Also correct. It's also embarrassing because of the pivotal role France played in their fight against the British for independence.

It even pisses me off and I usually have no qualms about mocking the French.

Spoiler

bunch of arrogant frog eaters

Hahahah <3

 

[funkystudent]

Who are her main opponents in the election and how popular are they?


After Brexit and Trump I think we should know to try think in different terms then polls and over confidence. If she is going against a popular person then I think France will be OK. If its yet another "well this person is less hated I guess" like Clinton then its a dice roll IMO.

 

[Alx]

Who are her main opponents in the election and how popular are they?


After Brexit and Trump I think we should know to try think in different terms then polls and over confidence. If she is going against a popular person then I think France will be OK. If its yet another "well this person is less hated I guess" like Clinton then its a dice roll IMO.

It's not only a matter of popularity, but of non-popularity. It is a two rounds election, the two candidates getting the most votes on the first round are opposed in a second round, and in that one all the voters of the eliminated candidates will have to transfer to either of them (or not vote at all). And very few of them are likely to transfer to Le Pen.

To summarize the expected candidates :

Marine Le Pen (Front National)
François Fillon (right). The current favorite, decently popular (quite neutral actually), but got recently criticized for a harsh economic program and mentioning his "christian values". (also has a friendship with Poutine that nobody seems to mention).
Emmanuel Macron (independant / center left) The current wild card. Rising popularity and loved by the media, but most wonder if his bubble won't burst.

running further behind :
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (far left) Rising popularity with a populist program and a good use of internet communication, but not very likely to get traditional votes.
??? (left) Primaries in progress (first round tomorrow). Whoever is chosen will start with a low popularity.
And other random candidates that would be happy to reach 5% each.

Top three are close enough and the others undecided enough that many configurations of candidates are possible for second round, but none would see Le Pen as a favourite.

 

[hanspampel]

My us stocks will skyrocket

 

[andythinkpad]

I know shit can happen (Trump) but seriously what are the odds Le Pen gets elected?

1 year ago Trump's chance of winner the presidency was around 1:4 to 1:5 on betting sites.

 

[Caipirinha]

France and England leaving will fuck it royally.

Maybe we need a ww3 in Europe to remind people of part of the reason we need the EU rather than hating each other because they're born in slightly different places...

This is the problem, WW2 was only one human lifetime ago, so apparently human beings have to experience a world war first hand in order to learn the importance of solidarity.

So I guess we can look forward to a world war every 80-90 years with each generation born after it being completely ignorant to history and blindly repeating the mistakes of the past. Brilliant.

 

[mo60]

Who are her main opponents in the election and how popular are they?


After Brexit and Trump I think we should know to try think in different terms then polls and over confidence. If she is going against a popular person then I think France will be OK. If its yet another "well this person is less hated I guess" like Clinton then its a dice roll IMO.

I said this before but if someone besides le pen was running for the presidency for the FN they would probably have a slightly better chance of winning the second round of the presidential elections in May. Le Pen is to tied to her father still to have a shot at winning the second round. Whoever is against le pen will be able to pretty much campaign against her in the second round

 

[Caipirinha]

France leaving the EU would be weird

France and Germany combined have made up the entire historical basis of the EU.

I think Europe on the whole in 5 years, regardless of Le Pen, is going to put an end to accepting refugees. It'd be an easy thing for even the left to embrace (since it seems to be the one major issue driving everything to the right) so they can get back to running their nations.

The main thing driving people to the right is the decline in working conditions/job security/living standards across the world and particularly in the highly financialised western economies of the US and Europe.

Neliberalism as an economic system is about as badly designed and clearly unsustainable as it gets, it really shouldn't have been controversial to have suggested that it wouldn't last and since the 2008 recession it's pretty much clear for all to see now.

Victories for Brexit and Trump are victories specifically for protectionism ("state capitalism") and ethno-nationalism, very similar to the 1930s, and they are victories against neoliberalism which, for it's own selfish reasons, opposes ethnographic-nationalism and is based upon globalisation.

It's not that the far right is "beating" neoliberalism though, and certainly the left, which is essentially non-existent relative to history, is not beating it - it's really just a victim of it's own success and terminally running out of steam beyond any possibility of being saved at this point.


My main concern is that the last time we had a major economic decline followed by a rise in the far right, we were also living in a world where intense debate and consideration of not just right wing but also left wing forms of governance and economics was mainstream.

Now we live in a world where for the last 40 years, the political and business elite have been putting all their effort into annihilating any consideration of left wing ideology.

Now, if you suggest even mainstream economic policies of the 60s, you will find yourself ridiculed as an extreme left wing loony. Meanwhile, if you support economic protectionism and anti-immigrant anti-welfare policies, you are considered the new mainstream.

In other words we are staring down the gun of a purely right wing world as neoliberalism implodes. If the rise of someone like Hitler was possible in a world where the left was extremely strong, what the fuck do we have the look forward to this time?!

 

[chromatic9]

Doubt this will happen. It would be the equivalent of UK voting in Nigel Farage. Voting in Trump is more analogous.

If she did get in then the EU would be under threat but given Brexit I doubt the people would vote leave.

I strongly suspect if mainland EU countries such as France get a le Pen type figure then EU would back down on its freedom of movement and perhaps other things. They won't budge for the UK but I'm sure France Spain would set the alarm bells ringing.

UK could find themselves back in the EU if there's reform happening due to France or whoever. This is pure fantasy though as I'd be amazed if Le Pen is getting in.

 

[Caipirinha]

Why not?

The Euro. I am a huge proponent of European federalisation and I am not against the sentiment of a shared currency but the way the Euro was designed, it was never going to last, not in a neoliberal world in which there would be no effort made to equalise the economies of different EU states and in which global financial crises would eventually put enough strain on the currency to bring it down.

The Euro is going to collapse within 5-10 years regardless of any election, that's just a fact. For it not to happen you would need an immediate definancialisation of the global economy and a massive, immediate programme for economic development throughout the weaker economies of Europe funded by the stronger ones.

In other words, not going to happen, and so the next financial crisis whether it starts in Italy or with a Deutsche Bank collapse or whatever else, will rip the Euro apart, and it's hard to imagine that wouldn't take the EU with it.

 

[Blueingreen]

France deserves every bit of credit for what it did in WWI

WW1 is an example of nationalism at it's worst, a war for the sake of a war.

 

[Pizza con salsiccia]

Huh...

Yes? Care to elaborate?

By this time we will have seen the full consequences of Brexit. It can make or break her program.

Spoiler

Most likely break it.

That's highly likely, based on how things are at the moment.
But she has surrouded herself with clever people (can't say whether she is, as word from her inner circle leads me to believe otherwise) who would take advantage of the likely catastrophic brexit.

 

[Bad_Boy]

Whats with the world becoming so far right.

 

[Sad Affleck]

Yeah, if Le Pen becomes president and pushes France out of the EU then the EU is dead in the water.

Whats with the world becoming so far right.

I know it's become a meme, but economic anxiety and closet racism. People who tolerated immigrants and multiculturalism because they used to be happy in their lives are now distrustful of the political establishment and looking for scapegoats. Far right parties are capitalizing on that by promising people a return to their previous way of life.

 

[Bad_Boy]

I know it's become a meme, but economic anxiety and closet racism. People who tolerated immigrants and multiculturalism because they used to be happy in their lives are now distrustful of the political establishment and looking for scapegoats. Far right parties are capitalizing on that by promising people a return to their previous way of life.

This explains it pretty well and makes sense. Thanks. Im just so dumbfounded sometimes that so many can be brainwashed and lose sight of the world.

 

[Orniletter]

France deserves every bit of credit for what it did in WWI

lol

Literally nobody deserves credit for anything involving WW I.
Honestly, all european nations were utter dicks back then.

 

[Joni]

lol

Literally nobody deserves credit for anything involving WW I.
Honestly, all european nations were utter dicks back then.

My country did nothing but get invaded.

 

[Orniletter]

My country did nothing but get invaded.

Belgium ? Yeah, thats true.

Change "all" for the major players in WWI.

 

[Frankfurter]

The Euro. I am a huge proponent of European federalisation and I am not against the sentiment of a shared currency but the way the Euro was designed, it was never going to last, not in a neoliberal world in which there would be no effort made to equalise the economies of different EU states and in which global financial crises would eventually put enough strain on the currency to bring it down.

The Euro is going to collapse within 5-10 years regardless of any election, that's just a fact. For it not to happen you would need an immediate definancialisation of the global economy and a massive, immediate programme for economic development throughout the weaker economies of Europe funded by the stronger ones.

In other words, not going to happen, and so the next financial crisis whether it starts in Italy or with a Deutsche Bank collapse or whatever else, will rip the Euro apart, and it's hard to imagine that wouldn't take the EU with it.

To be honest, I've seen a little too many of these "Euro is gonna collapse" predictions to take them seriously anymore.
Actually, to me it seems like the worst is over for the Eurozone. Spain is back on its feet, Ireland is doing pretty well, Portugal is doing okay-ish. Italy seems to be the only major problem, but its problems have nothing to do with the Euro.