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[cyberheater]

FUD.

PS4 is the only Playstation console I didn't buy, no killer app for me and I prefer the Wii U Pro controller on my better spec PC. But you won't see me spread negativity in PS4 threads like you do there.

How has anything you said directly addressed my points?

 

[notaskwid]

FUD.

PS4 is the only Playstation console I didn't buy, no killer app for me and I prefer the Wii U Pro controller on my better spec PC. But you won't see me spread negativity in PS4 threads like you do there.

marc^o^
Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm

I wonder why

 

[KratosEnergyDrink]

I bought every single Nintendo console from the SNES onwards including WiiU. I have reached my limit relative to Nintendo's bullshit.

They talk a good game but simply can't deliver.

Let's talk about what's missing from the Switch to make it a compelling platform for folks that are rich techheads and Nintendo fanboys.

A decent resolution screen for folks to view Facebook etc...
A plethora of streaming apps like Netflix
Decent social abilities like recording your gaming and streaming it.
Native voice chat
Decent Third party support

etc... All these need to be in place for a platform to succeed and the fact that Nintendo was forced to rush this out the gate in this state due to the failure of their last platform speaks volumes of the fear and panic at Nintendo right now.

This post makes no sense. Rich techheads have probably already more than one device for Facebook & Netflix. Game recording really? This feature is used by practically no one besides to try it out a few times.

Switch will easily sell 40+ millions without Game recording and it will have at least similar third party support as 3DS, who sold 60+.

 

[18-Volt]

I believe they do not take potential future hardware revisions into account. Knowing Nintendo, there will be several Switches. And some of them could be drastically different. If Nintendo evolves the system according to people's complaints, they could see much higher point than 40m. a $200 "mini" compact switch could be what people actually need.

Second, system sellers. We all know Nintendo is in "funding second party projects" business now and it's the ultimate key to success. They have to know what people dream about and do what it takes to make it reality. Bayonetta 2 shows that they're actually going into right direction but Nintendo needs to step it up. They need to go much bigger and important games, games people actually care about. If I were them, I wouldn't hesitate dishing out $100m to Rockstar to create completely new and exclusive GTA game for the system. If the money is not enough for them, I'd increase it, because it's that important title.

 

[Peru]

A decent resolution screen for folks to view Facebook etc...

The screen is as sharp as your ipad screen, same pixel density, sharper than your laptop screen. Universally praised by people who have used it. What are you on about? In any case Facebook use has zero to do with how successful this machine will be, it's completely irrelevant when everyone has a smartphone.

 

[cyberheater]

This post makes no sense. Rich techheads have probably already more than one device for Facebook & Netflix. Game recording really? This feature is used by practically no one besides to try it out a few times. .

My sons and all of their friends choose the platform for gaming because of the ability to socially interact with their friends. They play and chat and message and share stuff with their friends all the time. The social aspect of gaming is almost more important then the game itself for them.
The Switch has none of those features.

For a gaming system to be successful it needs to have these features. That's the point I was trying to make.

 

[marc^o^]

How has anything you said directly addressed my points?

I adressed your "fear, panic at Nintendo right now" words. There's a "fear, uncertainty and doubt" rhetoric in your post and you called Switch owners fanboys. Fans would have sufficed.

 

[cyberheater]

I adressed your "fear, panic at Nintendo right now" words. There's a "fear, uncertainty and doubt" rhetoric in your post and you called Switch owners fanboys. Fans would have sufficed.

It's clear the Nintendo are in panic mode and trying to get the Switch out as fast as possible. The terrible launch line up is testament to that.

Also I don't consider the term fanboy as a pejorative. I'm an Xbox fanboy and probably always will be. There is nothing wrong with being a fanboy.

 

[marc^o^]

My sons and all of their friends choose the platform for gaming because of the ability to socially interact with their friends. They play and chat and message and share stuff with their friends all the time. The social aspect of gaming is almost more important then the game itself for them.
The Switch has none of those features.

About that: real life interactions/local multiplayer gaming, are a social thing. Switch is designed for social interactions with its 2 controllers, portable features.

Besides, we don't have the full picture of Switch online features.

 

[Budi]

Good to hear Switch might end up doing so well. Drop 10M units from the estimated figure and I would still be quite happy for it. With the pricing here in Finland I can't really justify jumping in at launch, also considering the games lineup. But aiming to get it for holidays myself.

About that: real life interactions/local multiplayer gaming, are a social thing. Switch is designed for social interactions with its 2 controllers, portable features.

Besides, we don't have the full picture of Switch online features.

Yeah it's really weird spin to talk about social interaction and then only consider doing it online. What about looking your friend in the eyes while milking!

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Looking at those numbers, it's also pretty clear that the DS is an outlier as well. Their handheld business is in the same boat as the console business. Both steadily trending downward, with one outlying spike (Wii and DS). It's going to be very interesting to see how the Switch fares.

Maybe not. Maybe it's was a major success because it's the last pre-iPhone generation handheld.

 

[Mithos]

The one in September 2013. The deluxe dropped from $350 to $300 and the basic was discontinued.

Three month earlier in end of June 2013, retailers were having BOMBA prices (at least in Sweden) on both the Basic/Deluxe, half price on the Basic (€300->€150), a little later on the Deluxe version around August 2013 (€350->€250).

 

[Branduil]

Maybe not. Maybe it's was a major success because it's the last pre-iPhone generation handheld.

The DS was basically the platform for people who play smartphone games before smartphones existed. I think a lot of people forget that the DS was, for many, their first introduction to touchscreen gaming. It came out 3 years before the first iPhone.

 

[bachikarn]

The DS was basically the platform for people who play smartphone games before smartphones existed. I think a lot of people forget that the DS was, for many, their first introduction to touchscreen gaming. It came out 3 years before the first iPhone.

Yup. Mobile basically took the concept of 'Touch Generation' (non-games lol) and did it better. Nintendo really needed to make a phone (or partner with a phone maker) if they wanted to compete with that.

 

[mrklaw]

The hybrid gimmick is only attractive to a segment of users though when they have other ways to play games on the go. Many people probably won't even detach their units from the dock ever as opposed to just playing games traditionally.

Handhelds especially in the west are not generally supported all that well, which means the handheld angle is hit or miss

I can see the basic switch forms being used quite interchangeably
- lots of people will use docked only
- lots of people will use handheld only
- lots of people will use a mix of the two

Relative to those, I don't think many will use loose joycons, and even fewer will use split joycons for local multiplayer

 

[El-Pistolero]

I can see it selling really well in Japan, which should re-animates the local home consoles market, if only for a while. I also think that its performance in the other regions will be quite respectable, albeit less stellar.

 

[marc^o^]

It's clear the Nintendo are in panic mode and trying to get the Switch out as fast as possible. The terrible launch line up is testament to that.

I don't think so. ie Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is ready and they hold it on purpose.

They only have 2 million units ready for launch. Zelda, the most anticipated GOTY, will have a 1:1 attach rate. They have accessories to sell, room for 3rd parties to demonstrate, and online virtual console games to announce. Launching a console is always a pressure and an excitement. I don't see the fear and panic you imagine, from Nintendo moves.

 

[Pureauthor]

I can see it selling really well in Japan, which should re-animates the local home consoles market, if only for a while. I also think that its performance in the other regions will be quite respectable, albeit less stellar.

People in Japan are not going to use it as a home console.

 

[EmiPrime]

it's important to keep in mind this is going to be the sole console to play nintendo games going into the end of the decade

40 mil may look generous coming off wii u and conference de-hype but anything significantly less would mean tens of millions walking away from pokemon, smash, mario kart, ect. it's possible, but i don't particularly see that happening

Given the decline from Wii to Wii U and from DS to 3DS, tens of millions of people already did.

 

[Mash83]

Id say 25 maybe 30 million max. Even that puts it ahead of the XB1 pace which is selling very well. 40 million puts it slightly behind the PS4 pace which is selling astronomically. Honestly if they can reach 20-30 million by then end of 2020 I would say that is a win for Nintendo.

 

[opricnik]

Id say 25 maybe 30 million max. Even that puts it ahead of the XB1 pace which is selling very well. 40 million puts it slightly behind the PS4 pace which is selling astronomically. Honestly if they can reach 20-30 million by then end of 2020 I would say that is a win for Nintendo.

I doubt LTD sales of Switch will surpaas Xbone

 

[mugwhump]

I'm ready to admit that I have absolutely no fucking clue how well the switch will sell

I'm not even gonna guess

 

[Osiris]

Just saw this new Capcom interview on IGN:That's what I meant. I didn't say ALL parents aged 40 had a SNES, but that most current 40+ years old gamers were exposed to its games. Replace "most" by dozens of millions", I'm fine with that change, it's probably better worded indeed.

Just not in the UK, the UK has never been strong for Nintendo, and was certainly not in the SNES era where there were heavily dominated by the Sega Megadrive and 8bit & 16bit home computers (ZX Spectrum, C64 & later the Atari ST and Amiga 500). They were effectively a non-entity here, the SNES saw a small amount of popularity around the time of the PSX as a PSX alternative for Mario Kart and that was it.

 

[Morfeo]

Seems pretty reasonable imo, its a great piece of hardware, with awesome games and the full force of Nintendo behind it. The price will also go down in time.

 

[Belker]

Just not in the UK, the UK has never been strong for Nintendo, and was certainly not in the SNES era where there were heavily dominated by the Sega Megadrive and 8bit & 16bit home computers (ZX Spectrum, C64 & later the Atari ST and Amiga 500). They were effectively a non-entity here, the SNES saw a small amount of popularity around the time of the PSX as a PSX alternative for Mario Kart and that was it.

I don't think the original NES was ever popular here, but I think the SNES did OK. I had one and I'm sure that other people at my school did too. (I'd also go on to have an ST and later Amiga.) I do remember that Sega had stronger and more prevalent advertising, so the MD might have dominated in that sense.

 

[Windforce]

I think 40 million is perfectly doable.

 

[bachikarn]

I doubt LTD sales of Switch will surpaas Xbone

If the Switch ends up as a successor to the 3DS, it better.

 

[jroc74]

Looking at those numbers, it's also pretty clear that the DS is an outlier as well. Their handheld business is in the same boat as the console business. Both steadily trending downward, with one outlying spike (Wii and DS). It's going to be very interesting to see how the Switch fares.

Looking at the handheld numbers puts things in perspective.

And makes what MS did going from orig Xbox to the 360 seem remarkable.

 

[BlastProcessing]

It's clear the Nintendo are in panic mode and trying to get the Switch out as fast as possible. The terrible launch line up is testament to that.

Also I don't consider the term fanboy as a pejorative. I'm an Xbox fanboy and probably always will be. There is nothing wrong with being a fanboy.

It's actually not at all clear to me that that's the case.

 

[Theonik]

If the Switch ends up as a successor to the 3DS, it better.

The 3DS succeeded as an inexpensive toy alternative to smartphones in a market that is dying. 6 years later and with a significantly higher pricetag it's not known how well the Switch can do in that market. It took a $80 discount to save the 3DS from utter ruin and that was $250 at launch.

 

[Sgtpepper89]

The 3DS succeeded as an inexpensive toy alternative to smartphones in a market that is dying. 6 years later and with a significantly higher pricetag it's not known how well the Switch can do in that market. It took a $80 discount to save the 3DS from utter ruin and that was $250 at launch.

I can only see it work if they make a cheaper "Switch lite" portable only version that makes it affordable for all those familys that wants to buy Pokemon etc to several siblings. They aint gonna stack the numbers up with a home console, it will just be Wii U again.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

They need to throw a ton of software at the Switch and just hope.

 

[Striek]

Looking at those numbers, it's also pretty clear that the DS is an outlier as well. Their handheld business is in the same boat as the console business. Both steadily trending downward, with one outlying spike (Wii and DS). It's going to be very interesting to see how the Switch fares.

This isn't true because the list lacks important context; time. The amount of handhelds Nintendo was selling every year was increasing over time until the 3DS. The GBA was a huge success compared to the original GB, it just was on the market less than half the time before being replaced.

No one could've predicted the 3DS would sell so poorly before it launched. Its "success" is a result of lowered expectations over time.

40M in three years would be decent for the Switch but far from a return to glory for Nintendo.

 

[Crayon]

Nintendo hears what you want but don't give a shit and it makes everyone so mad.

Being mad at it is not going to keep it from selling 40 million, tho.

 

[shira]

I think 40 million is perfectly doable.

I'm comfortable with 10-15 million after 2 years, but their unannounced games past 2 years will have to be amazing. Mario/Zelda/Pokemon can hold the fort for 2 years, then either 3rd parties will have invested serious resources into this thing or they will have moved on.

 

[Lion Heart]

40 million is really aggressive


20-25 million tops.

 

[oatmeal]

I can see it doing really well in Japan, the 3DS is at like 25m there or something crazy? I would imagine this will do at least 75% of that.

No way this sells less than the Wii U in the States either....

40m is a lot, would be great for Nintendo.

 

[Barryman]

I doubt LTD sales of Switch will surpaas Xbone

I doubt your doubt. Hard.

 

[Neoweee]

It's clear the Nintendo are in panic mode and trying to get the Switch out as fast as possible. The terrible launch line up is testament to that.

Ironically, this is going to be only the 2nd platform I buy at launch... because of its launch line up. Having even one very good, meaty game at launch is pretty unusual, isn't it?

 

[skelekey]

Why do people continuously see this as a successor to the 3DS? It's so bizarre. But even if this we're the case, would a handheld really sell well at $300. The 3DS sold like crap at &250.

 

[marc^o^]

Why do people continuously see this as a successor to the 3DS? It's so bizarre. But even if this we're the case, would a handheld really sell well at $300. The 3DS sold like crap at &250.

Imagine a $199 SKU with just that in the box:

Imagine this at $199 (without the dock nor the grip), as soon as they release Pokemon or Animal Crossing. At that time Switch will already have Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey, etc.

Success is written all over such a SKU. Knowing they already sell the dock as an add on component makes it 99% likely it will appear.

I wonder what name they'll choose for this handheld SKU. I proposed "Go Switch"*
(*dock sold separately).

What would you call it?

 

[noshten]

Why do people continuously see this as a successor to the 3DS? It's so bizarre. But even if this we're the case, would a handheld really sell well at $300. The 3DS sold like crap at &250.

Other than being $250 - 3DS sold like crap because:
- it had no big games until the price drop
- the 3D gimmick was much worse than Switch's gimmick
- it was not much of an upgrade over DS.

Compare that with Switch:
- new Zelda at launch(only 14 mil Wii U owners so please refrain from reminding us of Zelda U we are all aware of it), MK8(ditto), Splatoon 2, Minecraft, new Super Mario. This list wipes the floor with absolutly everything that came out on the 3DS during it's first year.
- Gimmick is portable home console that allows local multiplayer on the go, two kid-sized controllers straight out of the box, rumble, gyro, sensors etc
- Compared to the 3DS the Switch is a major upgrade in every conceivable way

People continue to look at the 3DS with rose colored goggles - it was much much worse at launch than the Switch and inflation alone makes it a more costly device.

 

[Neoweee]

Why do people continuously see this as a successor to the 3DS? It's so bizarre. But even if this we're the case, would a handheld really sell well at $300. The 3DS sold like crap at &250.

1) There's actually a high profile game at launch.

2) The price is inevitably going to drop, so using its launch price as a portent for the next four years of sales seems ill-advised.

Like Las7 says, 3DS wasn't a big step up from 3DS, had a poor launch lineup, and didn't really have very notable releases until 3D Land launched in the Fall. The launch lineup and the first-year lineup are both notable improvements over the 3DS. $250 in 2011 isn't that far off from $300 isn't 2017, depending on the calculation/assumptions.

Question for the thread: Between launch and Mario (3D Land and Odyssey), how many Switch games would you consider higher-profile releases than the highest profile 3DS game of that same window? I'd say at least Zelda, FE Warriors, and Splatoon 2 fit the bill.

 

[crabhammer]

real entertaining reading this thread in retrospect now that the switch has smashed this number more than a year ahead of schedule lmao

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

 

[bitbydeath]

Great work Ninty.
It’s a great little console, good to have cartridges back again!

 

[Lupin3]

 

[Saruhashi]

real entertaining reading this thread in retrospect now that the switch has smashed this number more than a year ahead of schedule lmao

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html

Bu-bu-but for a videogame console to be successful it needs to have Netflix and Facebook!

 

[it_wasn't_me]

Bravo Ninty.

 

[Lupin3]

Bu-bu-but for a videogame console to be successful it needs to have Netflix and Facebook!

Exactly. Can't have enough of these "connect with your Facebook account" ass-bag options.

 

[Stilton Disco]

I was as doubtful as anyone after the clusterfuck that was the WiiU, but it turned out the Switch was an awesome bit of kit and, more importantly, Nintendo finally seems to have realised a diverse and healthy library of games is far more important than either power or gimmicks.

That sales prediction was still clearly pulled out of someone's arse though.