LordRaptor
Member
I think this is not only likely but probable and part of the reason they went with a SOC for their unified development platform.
This is the company that released the Super Gameboy and GBA Player hardware addons, after all.
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(Gamesindustry) Nintendo Switch to sell 40M units through 2020 - DFC Intel. report
- Thread starter Volotaire
- Start date
I think this is not only likely but probable and part of the reason they went with a SOC for their unified development platform.
This is the company that released the Super Gameboy and GBA Player hardware addons, after all.
Exactly.
It's solid for console sales but under performing for handheld and console combined.
this is important to remember as well
for the foreseeable future, they will only be selling one platform instead of two
Switch sales will be a sharp drop from Wii U + 3DS sales
GuessMyUserName
Member
Thought this again when Vita was announced $250,... and then there was the Playstation TV reveal
GAF responses really are meaningless, we're a place of enthusiasts.
ronaldthump
Member
That's because some folks put zero value on anything but specs and price. Numbers. It's harder to quantify the value of a platform that offers unique experiences. A hybrid invites differing perspectives by virtue of offering differing experiences. That said, it could go either really horribly or really well.
Nintendo has an example of both with their last two consoles.
Ghost_Messiah
Member
I don't think 40 million is a reachable estimate. In all honesty the GameCube had more going for it (some of Nintendo's best games of all time, decent third party support, low price, high profile exclusives from Sega, Capcom and Square Enix, technically proficient hardware on par with the competition, amazing games from now dormant franchises like Metroid Prime and F Zero GX) and still only managed 20 million units coming a distant third that generation. Switch won't be another Wii U but it'll struggle to match the GameCube at its current price level, with its foreseeable line-up of games and zero third party support which might be the killing blow unless something drastic changes in the near future.
I'd love to be wrong as I want Nintendo to succeed but I think even 30 million would be a miracle. And we're talking LTD here, not just until 2020.
I'd love to be wrong as I want Nintendo to succeed but I think even 30 million would be a miracle. And we're talking LTD here, not just until 2020.
KingdomHeartsFan
Member
I could see 40m if this was a cheap handheld but it costs too much.
rokkerkory
Member
How about 25m?
If it was $250 with game I would believe 35m-40m
If it was $250 with game I would believe 35m-40m
PinkyMonkey
Banned
DFC Intelligence - Wii U would outsell Gamecube. https://www.gamnesia.com/news/dfc-intelligence-says-wii-u-forecasts-are-higher-than-gamecube
I just had a thought. What if Nintendo is planning on new iterations of the Switch where it is a new tablet (more powerful), but it works with all of the old accessories (dock, joycons, ect). Just buy a new tablet and use it with the rest
MHWilliams
Member
At it's current price, I'm feeling 20 million. That said, I expect Nintendo to drop that price if sales stagnate, like they did with the 3DS, bringing that to 30 million. I'm still going to go south of that until Nintendo begins to turn the ship around.
Success is not out of reach, Nintendo just has to realize that it isn't playing from a position of strength right now.
Remember, these are the lifetime sales numbers:
Home
Console
Actually, given those numbers, the Wii is an outlier in a clear trend. And portable sales are high, but variable as hell.
The mobile market you're talking about is the other thing Nintendo is competing against. The company is attempting to thread the needle between the two sides.
Success is not out of reach, Nintendo just has to realize that it isn't playing from a position of strength right now.
Remember, these are the lifetime sales numbers:
Home
- NES: 61 million
- Super NES: 49 million
- N64: 32 million
- GameCube: 21 million
- Wii: 101 million
- Wii U: 13 million
Console
- Game Boy: 118 million
- GBA: 81 million
- DS: 154 million
- 3DS: 61 million
Actually, given those numbers, the Wii is an outlier in a clear trend. And portable sales are high, but variable as hell.
The mobile market you're talking about is the other thing Nintendo is competing against. The company is attempting to thread the needle between the two sides.
The mobile market is king in Japan... I'm pretty sure Nintendo has recognized this. Fire Emblem Heroes will probably outsell Switch by a rather significant margin. I expect almost half of their teams to be working on mobile games in the near future.
If Switch fails, I expect them to go fully mobile. Same goes for Square
If Switch fails, I expect them to go fully mobile. Same goes for Square
LordRaptor
Member
Do you have particular reason to doubt the accuracy of these X1 sales figures, which would put its sales at about half what you think they are?
My guess is at the most optimistic 25 to 30 million.
It would hypothetically be on pace with XB1 counting all regions XB1 is weak in selling at a steady pace
SinCityAssassin
Member
Considering its a free app, it's not hard to?
BladeoftheImmortal
Member
It's going to do great in Japan. Probably not so much anywhere else.
Like I said in another thread. I think its doable for Nintendo. If they can get half the 3DS userbase to purchase the 3DS successor, they would be in good position to get a huge market share. I think nintendo checked Sony in chess terms and could check mate unless Sony created a hybrid or gets an insane amount of consumers buying PSVR
Games I have nostalgia from youth for:
Starstrike 2 - ZX Spectrum
Dropzone, Paradroid,Parallax, Delta, Iridis Alpha -all C64
Carrier Command, The Sentinel, Stunt Car Racer, Starglider 2 - Amiga.
A couple of Megadrive games and after that it's been Sony all the way.
Generally I'm not too bothered about old games, and Nintendo IPS barely exist other than Mario 64 & Zelda OOT as the N64 is the only Ninty console I've owned. Oh, I did have a game boy that was exclusively a Tetris machine.
do you mean 20m by 2020 or 20m lifetime? If they come out and say the next pokemon game is exclusive to this and no 3ds version, this thing is going to go way above 20m lifetime
clarknova156
Member
Hahaha 40 million? High as fuck. Half that IF they bring out a Pokémon game a full fledged one at that so none of this stadium or take a photo safari junk and not late next year.
Unless Nintendo slashes its prices on accessories and starts pumping out high quality games it won't even get close to half. Third party support is a joke and frankly it seems even worse than Wii U third party support at this point. Without the big third party franchises the Switch just doesn't have a shot at 40 million at all.
The knee jerk popularity of these "figures" is always laughable. Ask how that big old "60 million consoles" goal Microsoft had going is.. and that console had all the big third party support it needed.
Nintendo should have just made a powerful home console , got all the real third party franchises on board and started unleashing its horde of amazing first part titles and it would have destroyed the PlayStation and Xbox. I'm not even talking 4k or anything like it. Just make a home console that can do 1080p 60 fps and you would have solid well over 40 million. But Nintendo doesn't like money that way I guess. They would rather fail and blame it on gamers instead. The ignorance level at Nintendo is astounding.
Despite my shitting all on Nintendo I am buying a Switch just because I honestly believe it'll be the last Nintendo home console (well hybrid).
Unless Nintendo slashes its prices on accessories and starts pumping out high quality games it won't even get close to half. Third party support is a joke and frankly it seems even worse than Wii U third party support at this point. Without the big third party franchises the Switch just doesn't have a shot at 40 million at all.
The knee jerk popularity of these "figures" is always laughable. Ask how that big old "60 million consoles" goal Microsoft had going is.. and that console had all the big third party support it needed.
Nintendo should have just made a powerful home console , got all the real third party franchises on board and started unleashing its horde of amazing first part titles and it would have destroyed the PlayStation and Xbox. I'm not even talking 4k or anything like it. Just make a home console that can do 1080p 60 fps and you would have solid well over 40 million. But Nintendo doesn't like money that way I guess. They would rather fail and blame it on gamers instead. The ignorance level at Nintendo is astounding.
Despite my shitting all on Nintendo I am buying a Switch just because I honestly believe it'll be the last Nintendo home console (well hybrid).
lwilliams3
Member
That's a matter of "when." I am expecting some interesting surprises in Nintendo's lineup after 2016 and beyond.
it's important to keep in mind this is going to be the sole console to play nintendo games going into the end of the decade
40 mil may look generous coming off wii u and conference de-hype but anything significantly less would mean tens of millions walking away from pokemon, smash, mario kart, ect. it's possible, but i don't particularly see that happening
40 mil may look generous coming off wii u and conference de-hype but anything significantly less would mean tens of millions walking away from pokemon, smash, mario kart, ect. it's possible, but i don't particularly see that happening
Depths of Orion
Member
Lol there is just no way. I'd say 20 max unless there is a price drop or they bundle in Zelda for free. 17-18 seems more realistic
MHWilliams
Member
By 2020, given that was the stipulation in the article.
Pokemon X and Y came out worldwide on October 2013. The 3DS launched in 2011, so it didn't get an exclusive Pokemon until two years into its lifespan.
Major entries in the Pokemon series tend to be about 3-4 years apart. We may get a Sun/Moon variant on the Switch this year, but a 3DS exclusive generation would likely be in 2019. More likely is Stars and then perhaps a remake version of Diamond/Pearl for 3DS and Switch in 2018. Assuming 2019 for the exclusive Pokemon (with a price drop) is part of the bet I'm mentally hedging for 30 million. 20 million is if Nintendo holds fast on $299.
Monster Hunter is a better bet following the same mental math, by the by. The first full new Monster Hunter for 3DS was MH4 in 2013. Before that the all-new releases wer Monster Hunter Tri in 2009 and MH Portable 3rd in 2010 (weird outlier); after was Monster Hunter X/Generations in 2015. 2017 is Monster Hunter XX, so either we'll get a Switch port sometime after its March release, or Monster Hunter Next will be in 2018. The question is, "Will Monster Hunter Next be Switch only, or a 3DS/Switch release?" I'm leaning towards the latter, but that's up in the air.
So, exclusive Monster Hunter in 2018 maybe, and exclusive Pokemon in 2019. That's just were my mind is going. GameFreak and Capcom could surprise, but these are my self bets, given that both companies tend to go where the money is first (read: 3DS for the time being).
OrbitalBeard
Member
40 million in four years seems a bit conservative for the first all-in-one Nintendo box. That number would probably be a bit disappointing for the company.
lwilliams3
Member
I have seen similar posts in this thread. Do people seriously think that Nintendo will "do a Wii U" and let it coast to oblivion after the second year of its lifetime? The Frankstein-ish nature of the Wii U gave Nintendo grief on what to do with the system once it didn't take off, but I would expect new revisions and possibly new form factors/upgrades of the Switch to be released before 2020.
The Switch is a big part of Nintendo's present and future, and I believe Nintendo will fight harder to keep it around than some posters think.
Nintendo's internal projections were pretty out there if I remember correctly. They expected to sell 10 million Wii U in either the first calander year or by the end of their fiscal year, which would have been an even crazier 4 month time span.
This was after the Wii's sales had dropped off a cliff. How could they not see the Wii U bomb coming is beyond me.
What price drop?
OrbitalBeard
Member
The one in September 2013. The deluxe dropped from $350 to $300 and the basic was discontinued.
The 3ds sold 4.2m or there Abouts by the end of December in its first year. If Switch can repeat that then I'd say 12-15 in Japan alone by December 31st 2020 is entirely possible. So dependant on world wide interest in the device, 20m is the baseline imo and if the device takes off worldwide, 40m is achievable.
A few things to consider regarding Japan, the first year of 3DS saw a 10000 yen price drop. Also the 3DS didn't see a mainline Pokémon game until 2 years into its life with a new Pokémon game appearing on the DS over 12 months into the 3DS life, which would have meant many had no reason to upgrade from the old to the new for a very long time. Now, would the price drop have been entirely necessary that quickly if an exclusive mainline pokemon game had launched within the first year? Who knows.
If Pokemon Stars is indeed an exclusive for the Switch then i can see it repeating the first year sales of the 3DS in Japan. even though it isn't a brand new generation game it has the potential to sell by the boatload if previous third version sales are anything to go by. Then the price cut can come a bit later, so early 2018.
If Pokemon Stars is not real or is not exclusive then it scuppers things imo. As too does the fact that the next Monster Hunter game is a 3DS title. An enhanced late Switch port in late 2017 could help things but looking at the port of Monster Hunter 3 that the 3DS received, it was not a huge seller out of the gate (edit 1m in less than a month.. Maybe that is big enough but not comparable to the 1.75m launch of MH4) so who knows the effect it could have. No Pokémon game means imo another price drop may be needed in Japan to hit similar first year figures of the 3ds.
In conclusion, a lot of things need to happen and within the right timeframes, but i believe the potential is there for it to be a big success in Japan (at least).
A few things to consider regarding Japan, the first year of 3DS saw a 10000 yen price drop. Also the 3DS didn't see a mainline Pokémon game until 2 years into its life with a new Pokémon game appearing on the DS over 12 months into the 3DS life, which would have meant many had no reason to upgrade from the old to the new for a very long time. Now, would the price drop have been entirely necessary that quickly if an exclusive mainline pokemon game had launched within the first year? Who knows.
If Pokemon Stars is indeed an exclusive for the Switch then i can see it repeating the first year sales of the 3DS in Japan. even though it isn't a brand new generation game it has the potential to sell by the boatload if previous third version sales are anything to go by. Then the price cut can come a bit later, so early 2018.
If Pokemon Stars is not real or is not exclusive then it scuppers things imo. As too does the fact that the next Monster Hunter game is a 3DS title. An enhanced late Switch port in late 2017 could help things but looking at the port of Monster Hunter 3 that the 3DS received, it was not a huge seller out of the gate (edit 1m in less than a month.. Maybe that is big enough but not comparable to the 1.75m launch of MH4) so who knows the effect it could have. No Pokémon game means imo another price drop may be needed in Japan to hit similar first year figures of the 3ds.
In conclusion, a lot of things need to happen and within the right timeframes, but i believe the potential is there for it to be a big success in Japan (at least).
Gaf makes up like 0,0001% of the people that will buy this thing. If they get a steady flow of games and a library like that of the 3DS this thing will sell like crazy.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Since when does delivering "all-in-one boxes" instead of focussing on games solve anything?
SolarMystic
Member
The Wii was a very affordable product with a great selling point to the casual market, which at the time in 2006, wasn't completely smitten by smartphones.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Since when does delivering "all-in-one boxes" instead of focussing on games solve anything?
Well, one would hope this is going to be a game-focused device. That's what I meant by "all-in one". It'll be your single destination for Nintendo software.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Of course they do, for all we know they don't even offer any TV options like Netflix in the first place.
In the future, maybe, but for now those who want to play on the move can do that by playing on a $100 2DS or a $150 3DS, which both offer a great games library already and games which cost significantly less than their Switch counterparts.
If Nintendo keeps 2DS/3DS in the forseeable future, a $250+ Switch is going to have a hard time catering those who just want a new handheld.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Yes. Which is what this article is about. The future.
cyberheater
PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 PS4 Xbone PS4 PS4
I bought every single Nintendo console from the SNES onwards including WiiU. I have reached my limit relative to Nintendo's bullshit.
They talk a good game but simply can't deliver.
Let's talk about what's missing from the Switch to make it a compelling platform for folks that are rich techheads and Nintendo fanboys.
A decent resolution screen for folks to view Facebook etc...
A plethora of streaming apps like Netflix
Decent social abilities like recording your gaming and streaming it.
Native voice chat
Decent Third party support
etc... All these need to be in place for a platform to succeed and the fact that Nintendo was forced to rush this out the gate in this state due to the failure of their last platform speaks volumes of the fear and panic at Nintendo right now.
Just saw this new Capcom interview on IGN:
That's what I meant. I didn't say ALL parents aged 40 had a SNES, but that most current 40+ years old gamers were exposed to its games. Replace "most" by dozens of millions", I'm fine with that change, it's probably better worded indeed.
PSFan
Member
Looking at those numbers, it's also pretty clear that the DS is an outlier as well. Their handheld business is in the same boat as the console business. Both steadily trending downward, with one outlying spike (Wii and DS). It's going to be very interesting to see how the Switch fares.
FUD.
PS4 is the only Playstation console I didn't buy, no killer app for me and I prefer the Wii U Pro controller on my better spec PC. But you won't see me spread negativity in PS4 threads like you do there.
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