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Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 Hits Tracking: $150M Opening Within Reach

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K

kswiston

Member
From Deadline: http://deadline.com/2017/04/guardians-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-projected-box-office-opening-1202068751/

Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 hit the tracking boards this morning and came on quite hot according to non-Disney sources. Rival estimates believe that the movie has the potential to feasibly open to $150M at the domestic B.O., and if the James Gunn-directed sequel gets to Captain America: Civil War proportions ($179.1M), that wouldn’t be a surprise.

Related'Beauty And The Beast' Roars Past $1B At Worldwide Box Office
Total awareness for GOTG Vol. 2 is at a massive 88%, definite interest is at 63% and firsts choice at 28%. Of course, it’s a no brainer that males will show up. Females are strong, but older females are the least strong among the four quads.

Now, we always have to footnote projections three weeks out. Anything can happen to vary these figures up or down, and has been the case with titles that come on tracking quite strong, they’re a challenge for the industry to make laser-point predictions on. Why is that? Because statistically there’s a small sampling of films that opened north of $100M.

Disney/Marvel’s The Avengers still holds the all-time opening record for the first weekend in May with $207.4M followed by Avengers: Age of Ultron ($191.2M), Captain America: Civil War ($179.1M), and Iron Man 3 ($174.1M).
Click to expand...

There's more at the link. If Guardians hits $150M, it will join Batman, Spider-Man, and Iron Man in the A-Tier.
 
B

BatDan

Bane? Get them on board, I'll call it in.
General Public in 2014: Who?
General Public in 2017: TAKE ALL MY MONEY
 
A

Atomic Playboy

Member
It releases on my birthday, I have the day off from work, and my child will be with my aunt all day, so I'll be $8.50 of that. The wife may join me as well. Be the first movie I've seen on opening day since... probably Return of the King, actually. It's been a while.
 
S

Sesha

Member
Interesting. I hope Gunn does Thunderbolts next. Thunderbolts deserve to be A-tier.

And please Lee, Kirby and Ditko let Marvel sucker Fox into giving away or sharing Super-Skrull and Annihilus so we can kind of get an adaption of Annihilation in Guardians 3.
 
G

guek

Banned
Sesha said:
Interesting. I hope Gunn does Thunderbolts next. Thunderbolts deserve to be A-tier.

And please Lee, Kirby and Ditko let Marvel sucker Fox into giving away or sharing Super-Skrull and Annihilus so we can kind of get an adaption of Annihilation in Guardians 3.
Click to expand...

Super Skrull and Skrulls are usable by Marvel and Fox jointly, Kl'rt is Fox only due to F4.

Annihilation though...it's just a dream :-(
 
P

Prompto

Banned
wachie said:
Another C-tier upgrading to A-Tier.

Disney, the BO gods.
Click to expand...
Maybe I'm crazy but I think Thor has a good chance of getting to a 150 million dollar opening as well.

Deadpool as well considering the first one made 150 million on a 4 day weekend.
 
I

illmatic22

Banned
Had no Idea who the Guardians were a few years ago but now they're a blockbuster franchise. Gonna kill it at the box office.
 
H

HeartlessNobody213

Member
Not surprised. Of course it's anecdotal but tickets are already almost sold out here and I'm not even in a major city. I could see $170-$180 million.

Probably even higher if it gets great reviews.
 
I

Ibuki

Banned
Tickets went up over a month before release.

Soon I'll be buying tickets for these movies the year before. :p
 
B

badcrumble

Member
I'm still wondering what Disney's next big acquisition is gonna be. Feels like they're raking in over half of the industry's profits these days.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Other MCU #1 and #2 film comparisons on opening weekend

Iron Man ($102M*) -> Iron Man 2 ($128M)
Thor ($66M) -> Thor: The Dark World ($86M)
Captain America ($65M) -> The Winter Soldier ($95M)

*Iron Man's preview grosses were separated into a Thursday gross. I lumped that with the weekend total, since that is now the standard practice.
 
J

jviggy43

Member
This is how you get rewarded for building your franchise the right way. No one had any idea of these characters a few years ago and now theyre arguably some of marvels most loved characters.
 
G

guek

Banned
Prompto said:
Maybe I'm crazy but I think Thor has a good chance of getting to a 150 million dollar opening as well.

Deadpool as well considering the first one made 150 million on a 4 day weekend.
Click to expand...

TDW had an $85M opening, up 30% from Thor's $65M OW. A similar boost would put Ragnarok at $110M which seems much more reasonable. But who knows! That's a ways away.
 
D

DeathyBoy

Banned
guek said:
TDW had an $85M opening, up 30% from Thor's $65M OW. A similar boost would put Ragnarok at $110M which seems much more reasonable. But who knows! That's a ways away.
Click to expand...

Thor 3 will make a lot of money, but I think people assuming a billion without Stark are being overzealous.

GOTG 2 however has Chris "JW made a billion but Passengers bombed" Pratt, so who knows.
 
A

AndersK

Member
Really makes SS opening weekend impressive in context. A marketing masterclass.
A sequel to a universally beloved anti-heroish romp ending up tracking similarly so far to a quite reviled Frankenstein of a movie. Interesting to note that Gotg 1 outgrossed it domestically despite opening 40 million lower.

Barring Perlmutter leading an insurrection with an army of trailer editors, Gotg is reaching 1 bil worldwide, I reckon.
 
K

kitchenmotors

Banned
I love Chris Pratt and was excited when they originally announced Guardians, even back when the first trailer came out and a lot of people around here were dismissive of it.

Glad to see it's become a major property for Disney.
 
A

AndersK

Member
kitchenmotors said:
I love Chris Pratt and was excited when they originally announced Guardians, even back when the first trailer came out and a lot of people around here were dismissive of it.

Glad to see it's become a major property for Disney.
Click to expand...

The amount of crow eaten was staggering. I remember not really thinking the world if it once trailers hit.
 
Aces&Eights

Aces&Eights

Member
DeathyBoy said:
Thor 3 will make a lot of money, but I think people assuming a billion without Stark are being overzealous.

GOTG 2 however has Chris "JW made a billion but Passengers bombed" Pratt, so who knows.
Click to expand...

Man, I really enjoyed Passengers.

This will crush. 1st one was on point thematically and had great humor. They would have to really try to mess it up.
 
K

kitchenmotors

Banned
AndersK said:
The amount of crow eaten was staggering. I remember not really thinking the world if it once trailers hit.
Click to expand...

I think a big part of why people were dismissive was because it took the Joss Whedon banter bits (which I absolutely love, it's an extension of what he does in his TV shows) of Avengers and expanded upon it, becoming a bit more light hearted than previous Marvel movies. But that sort of thing works within the Marvel universe.
 
K

kswiston

Member
AndersK said:
Really makes SS opening weekend impressive in context. A marketing masterclass.
A sequel to a universally beloved anti-heroish romp ending up tracking similarly so far to a quite reviled Frankenstein of a movie. Interesting to note that Gotg 1 outgrossed it domestically despite opening 40 million lower.

Barring Perlmutter leading an insurrection with an army of trailer editors, Gotg is reaching 1 bil worldwide, I reckon.
Click to expand...

Suicide Squad was tracking around $125M at this same point. Civil War was tracking at $175M. Both ended up opening slightly above early tracking.
 
A

AndersK

Member
kswiston said:
Suicide Squad was tracking around $125M at this same point. Civil War was tracking at $175M. Both ended up opening slightly above early tracking.
Click to expand...

Oh, thanks for the info. Is it normal for CBM's to track upwards as release gets nearer? Past me would be flabbergasted to see it get higher than BvS. Maybe not so much at present.
 
D

DeathyBoy

Banned
kitchenmotors said:
I think a big part of why people were dismissive was because it took the Joss Whedon banter bits (which I absolutely love, it's an extension of what he does in his TV shows) of Avengers and expanded upon it, becoming a bit more light hearted than previous Marvel movies. But that sort of thing works within the Marvel universe.
Click to expand...

I don't think people mind banter if it's good.

GOTG had good banter. Avengers had some weird exchanges the actors looked confuddled at having to say.
 
A

AndersK

Member
DeathyBoy said:
I don't think people mind banter if it's good.

GOTG had good banter. Avengers had some weird exchanges the actors looked confuddled at having to say.
Click to expand...

'Pass the zucchini' from Ultron will live in infamy.
Can't say I recall specific examples from Avengers 1 though. I generally Like Whedon's dialogue however.
 
I

IdreamofHIME

Member
And the big gag of the 1st movies promotion was no one knew who Star Lord was. We've come along way baby.

DeathyBoy said:
Thor 3 will make a lot of money, but I think people assuming a billion without Stark are being overzealous.

GOTG 2 however has Chris "JW made a billion but Passengers bombed" Pratt, so who knows.
Click to expand...


Also had JLaw though, she's anchor around any boxoffices neck. Just ask the Xmen franchise.
 
K

kswiston

Member
AndersK said:
Oh, thanks for the info. Is it normal for CBM's to track upwards as release gets nearer? Past me would be flabbergasted to see it get higher than BvS. Maybe not so much at present.
Click to expand...

Tracking for Batman v Superman was $120-140M at the beginning of March, a year ago. It opened to $166M.


Most Superhero films do seem to hit or exceed their initial tracking. I know that Age of Ultron was the MCU exception. That was widely pegged to at least break $200M, and perhaps take the opening record. It instead made $191M. The other two recent ones I can think of are Fantastic Four and X-Men Apocalypse.

We will get updated tracking the week leading to release, when hype is in full swing. That late tracking is more likely to be missed. For instance, Disney was the only one sticking to a <$180M opening for Civil War the week of release, and Suicide Squad tracking got up into the $140M range (the actual opening was $134M).
 
L

Litan

Member
AndersK said:
'Pass the zucchini' from Ultron will live in infamy.
Can't say I recall specific examples from Avengers 1 though. I generally Like Whedon's dialogue however.
Click to expand...
AoU had plenty of clunkers. Except for, " I don't see how that's a party," I liked the whedon-esque dialogue in The Avengers.
 
S

super-heated plasma

Member
Count me in as one of the crow eaters. Not that I thought the movie would fail per se, but I didn't think it would be nowhere near as big, especially because of Rocket. I thought the idea of a talking raccoon would be too absurd for everyone. Even me. And as someone said, they are now among the most lovable characters Marvel has. I've never been happier to be more wrong.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
GOTG2: Total awareness for GOTG Vol. 2 is at a massive 88%, definite interest is at 63% and firsts choice at 28%. Of course, it’s a no brainer that males will show up. Females are strong, but older females are the least strong among the four quads.
Click to expand...

Civil War and Ultron: In tracking, Civil War is surpassing Avengers in definite interest, first choice and unaided awareness. Civil War is currently charting a 69% definite interest to Ultron‘s 74%, while in first choice the Russo brothers film has 34% to the Whedon sequel’s 37%.
Click to expand...

Winter Soldier:
CA2 (23 days before release)
UA: 8 9 9 6 6
TA: 84 89 86 83 79
Def: 58 68 65 49 49
FC: 20 28 21 16 13
Click to expand...

While it's not tracking as well as CW or Ultron this far out, it is comfortably ahead of Winter Soldier. I'm not sold on $150M, but I think it will at least match the opening of Iron Man 2.
 
W

WhiteRabbitEXE

Member
10 years ago "Batman, Spider-Man, and Iron Man" in the A-tier would have sounded ridiculous and now we're talking about Guardians of the freaking Galaxy joining that tier, lol. Crazy.
 
G

Gordon Shumway

Banned
AndersK said:
'Pass the zucchini' from Ultron will live in infamy.
Can't say I recall specific examples from Avengers 1 though. I generally Like Whedon's dialogue however.
Click to expand...

If it is, we should at least get the line right. It's "You and Banner better not be playing hide the zucchini."
 
G

Glass Rebel

Member
kswiston said:
That will depend more on overseas than the domestic gross. GotG1 was bigger domestically than it was overseas, especially when you consider how strong foreign currencies were in 2014 vs now.
Click to expand...

jbhmmm.png


Yeah, this is gonna hit a billi easy.
 
G

Garlador

Member
Having been a huge fan of these characters long before the movie hit, it's like when your local unsigned band you always supported suddenly gets signed to a major label and soon everyone else loves them too.

Can't wait for the sequel. Still hard to believe this ragtag band of misfits is legit competition at the box office against the whole Justice League.
 
B

Bronx-Man

Banned
I still keep going back to 2010 when no one at Evo had any idea what the fuck a Rocket Raccoon was and why it just got announced for Ultimate Marvel.
 
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