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[AniHawk]

the main reason is most consoles launches are supply constraint.

remember this the first time ever nintendo has combined home console and handheld into one.

 

[ninjablade]

"Nintendo handhelds always do great" was absolutely not a given this generation. The handheld market has fundamentally changed with smartphones. It went from 280 million units in the DS/PSP generation (holy cow that's huge) to maybe 80 million in the 3DS/Vita generation. It's huge revisionist history to try and say "Duh, it's a Nintendo handheld!"

I agree it's not a giving, but it's still looks healthy enough, 3ds will end up doing 70-80 million, i'm not sure, but we can expect it's successor to at least do 40 million, even with a huge decline.

 

[Nester99]

so 25% of PS4's first month, which came out right when Xbox1 did?
Not impressed at all.

I also predict a huge drop in sales in April,
If you wanted to play zelda you are already playing zelda, after that what else is there?

Slow re release of old stuff i already own? MK8, D5. Splatoon not until july.
Not impressed at all.

 

[Aleh]

Since entering the market, Sony, not Nintendo has had the biggest presence in the market as a whole.

Uhm, if you combine the sales of every Nintendo home console and portable console excluding the NES and SNES, do the same with Sony's, and put them side by side, Nintendo has sold approximately 100mil more units, unless my math is off

 

[frankie_baby]

so 25% of PS4's first month, which came out right when Xbox1 did?
Not impressed at all.

I also predict a huge drop in sales in April,
If you wanted to play zelda you are already playing zelda, after that what else is there?

Slow re release of old stuff i already own? MK8, D5. Splatoon not until july.
Not impressed at all.

U wot m8?
Dont think the ps4 sold 3.6million in its first month in the usa

 

[onemanasylum]

Uhm, if you combine the sales of every Nintendo home console and portable console excluding the NES and SNES, do the same with Sony's, and put them side by side, Nintendo has sold approximately 100mil more units, unless my math is off

"Since entering the market"... Nintendo was around a decade longer. No one has sold as much as sony since Sony has entered the market.

Based on what? They have sold less hardware, less software, and made much, much, much less money.

No...unless you have receipts? Since entering the market sony has sold more then anyone. Again, keep in mind nintendo was around in the 80's.

 

[Massicot]

so 25% of PS4's first month, which came out right when Xbox1 did?
Not impressed at all.

I also predict a huge drop in sales in April,
If you wanted to play zelda you are already playing zelda, after that what else is there?

Slow re release of old stuff i already own? MK8, D5. Splatoon not until july.
Not impressed at all.

Here's a chart showing NPD first months (source is ZhugeEx on twitter). Not sure about worldwide. I know PS4 started slow in Japan.

 

[Aleh]

"Since entering the market"... Nintendo was around a decade longer. No one has sold as much as sony since Sony has entered the market.

That's why I didn't include the NES and SNES? At most you could subtract some of the game boy sales, but a lot of them also came with Pokémon and that was released in 1996.

 

[Nosgotham]

so 25% of PS4's first month, which came out right when Xbox1 did?
Not impressed at all.

I also predict a huge drop in sales in April,
If you wanted to play zelda you are already playing zelda, after that what else is there?

Slow re release of old stuff i already own? MK8, D5. Splatoon not until july.
Not impressed at all.

I feel like this is a joke response but I'm concerned it's not.

 

[The Horror the horror]

"Since entering the market"... Nintendo was around a decade longer. No one has sold as much as sony since Sony has entered the market.




.

That's why he excluded the NES and SNES, because Sony wasn't in the console race at that time.

 

[BitStyle]

so 25% of PS4's first month, which came out right when Xbox1 did?
Not impressed at all.

I also predict a huge drop in sales in April,
If you wanted to play zelda you are already playing zelda, after that what else is there?

Slow re release of old stuff i already own? MK8, D5. Splatoon not until july.
Not impressed at all.

We are talking US only, not worldwide sales, which Switch has a lot more than 906k.
To your second point. There will be a sales drop, mainly due to supply constraints.

 

[Buggy Loop]

"Since entering the market"... Nintendo was around a decade longer. No one has sold as much as sony since Sony has entered the market.




No...unless you have receipts? Since entering the market sony has sold more then anyone. Again, keep in mind nintendo was around in the 80's.

He removed NES & SNES

 

[legend166]

"Since entering the market"... Nintendo was around a decade longer. No one has sold as much as sony since Sony has entered the market.




No...unless you have receipts? Since entering the market sony has sold more then anyone. Again, keep in mind nintendo was around in the 80's.

He specifically said to exclude NES & SNES. But either way, it's really close. If we exclude the GameBoy altogether since it released before Sony entered the market, Sony comes out on top by about 23 million units. But the GameBoy + GameBoy Color most likely sold way more than 23 million units from the time Sony entered the market. So Nintendo probably goes ahead again.

Either way, it's sort of a pointless argument because Sony didn't compete in handhelds until the PSP. But I guess you could just say that's on them for giving Nintendo an entire market segment to themselves for a decade.

Rough estimate:

Nintendo 64 - 33 million.
GameCube - 21 million
Wii - 100 Million
Wii U - 13 million

GBA - 81 million
Nintendo DS - 150 million
Nintendo 3DS - 65 million

Total - 463 million

PS1 - 102 million
PS2 - 155 million
PS3 - 83 million
PS4 - 54 million

PSP - 82 million
PS Vita - 10 million? Hard to get accurate numbers

Total - 486 million

I couldn't be bothered getting software shipments. The PS1 & 2 sold a load of software and I don't think Nintendo's dominance in handhelds in that area can make up for it.

 

[The Wart]

the main reason is most consoles launches are supply constraint.

remember this the first time ever nintendo has combined home console and handheld into one.

Wii U was supply-constrained for all of what, two weeks? And I'm pretty sure the 3DS was not meaningfully supply-constrained at launch. And in any case if "all launches are supply-constrained" then that should balance out when comparing launches, no?

Edit: or are you arguing that previous launches were dramatically more supply-constrained than the Switch? Because while that's probably true for the Wii I'm not at all convinced that's the case for the DS, 3DS, or Wii U.

 

[AdventureRacing]

so 25% of PS4's first month, which came out right when Xbox1 did?
Not impressed at all.

I also predict a huge drop in sales in April,
If you wanted to play zelda you are already playing zelda, after that what else is there?

Slow re release of old stuff i already own? MK8, D5. Splatoon not until july.
Not impressed at all.

I think you need to have a look at your maths. Also you're comparing a holiday release to a march release. In Japan sales haven't slowed yet and the console is still selling out in many places across the US, with Mario kart coming soon April will be fine.

The rest of your post doesn't seem to be sales related and exposes your agenda in your post.

"Since entering the market"... Nintendo was around a decade longer. No one has sold as much as sony since Sony has entered the market.

No...unless you have receipts? Since entering the market sony has sold more then anyone. Again, keep in mind nintendo was around in the 80's.

If you combine handheld and console sales Nintendo would come out slightly in front including sales of all devices since the PS1 release. Admittedly it looks to be only a matter of time before Sony overtakes though.

 

[Aleh]

According to Wikipedia "By Japanese fiscal year 1997, before Game Boy Color's release in late-1998, the Game Boy alone had sold 64.42 million units worldwide."
(~118mil at the end of its life)

 

[D.Lo]

No...unless you have receipts? Since entering the market sony has sold more then anyone. Again, keep in mind nintendo was around in the 80's.

Nintendo sales here
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/

Sony's hardware sales are a bit more slippery because a couple of quarters they did some tricks to hide bad performance by combining platforms and changing between shipped/sold through data. But these are about right:

PS1 104
PS2 157
PSP 80
PS3 84
Vita 15
PS4 50
Total 490

SNES 1994 onward (?)
GB 1994 onward (?)
GBC (?)
N64 32.9
GBA 81.5
GCN 21.7
DS 154
Wii 101.6
3DS 65
Wii U 13.6
Switch 4.5ish
Total 474.8

So unless Nintendo sold zero SNES, GB and GBC after 1994 (my guess is 50+ million, that period includes Pokemon coming on the scene) they easily have sold a lot more hardware than Sony since Sony entered the market.

Of course Sony only started in handhelds with the PSP, but I'm just proving

Since entering the market, Sony, not Nintendo has had the biggest presence in the market as a whole.

wrong.

Dollars wise Nintendo has dominated Sony my multiple billions in profit in games, see the charts back further in this thread for data on that.

EDIT: Beaten by Legend lol

If you combine handheld and console sales Nintendo would come out slightly in front including sales of all devices since the PS1 release. Admittedly it looks to be only a matter of time before Sony overtakes though.

Based on the Switch selling so well? Sony's probably 50 million behind now, we're talking PS5 to achieve that feat.

 

[Platy]

And it is good to remember that the wiiu and the 3ds were the first Nintendo consoles sold at loss, while Sony does this since day one

I wonder if it's linked to the 90s advertising blitz by Sega and then Sony portraying Nintendo as kiddy.

Dem marketing dollars at work

Which makes no sense ... Like if we were going to put ages to the companies, Microsoft would be in early 20s, Sony late 30s and Nintendo on its 80s !
Like they literally founded that shit in the 1800's !!!

 

[frankie_baby]

If you combine handheld and console sales Nintendo would come out slightly in front including sales of all devices since the PS1 release. Admittedly it looks to be only a matter of time before Sony overtakes though.

Not necessarily, switch could keep pace with ps4 and the 3ds still has a bunch more sales left in it

 

[Toni]

Not necessarily, switch could keep pace with ps4 and the 3ds still has a bunch more sales left in it

Switch is not going to keep pace with PS4 in anywhere in the world but Japan lol.

 

[frankie_baby]

And it is good to remember that the wiiu and the 3ds were the first Nintendo consoles sold at loss, while Sony does this since day one

Not actually true, the gamecube and ds also had periods of being sold at a loss

 

[Finn]

so 25% of PS4's first month, which came out right when Xbox1 did?
Not impressed at all.

I also predict a huge drop in sales in April,
If you wanted to play zelda you are already playing zelda, after that what else is there?

Slow re release of old stuff i already own? MK8, D5. Splatoon not until july.
Not impressed at all.

Guys, can you tell he's not impressed?

 

[Living the Dream]

Guys, can you tell he's not impressed?

He isn't wrong though.

 

[frankie_baby]

He isn't wrong though.

He cant add up

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Yes, I think it's fair to say Switch won't sell 906k units in April lol

Shocking

 

[Buggy Loop]

He isn't wrong though.

How is he not wrong, i ask you. The 25% he interpreted from god knows where (and is wrong), or that the suddently, demand will die this month "because", even though every shipment is sold out, and MK8 is coming out? Oh yeah, those 12 wiiU owners already have it right? Suddently, everyone has a WiiU -_-;

 

[Vena]

Switch is not going to keep pace with PS4 in anywhere in the world but Japan lol.

This sounds to me like you think the Switch will sell on the same level as the PS4 in Japan.

You do not keep pace with something you are rapidly outselling.

 

[Living the Dream]

How is he not wrong, i ask you. The 25% he interpreted from god knows where (and is wrong), or that the suddently, demand will die this month "because", even though every shipment is sold out, and MK8 is coming out? Oh yeah, those 12 wiiU owners already have it right? Suddently, everyone has a WiiU -_-;

I was referring to the slow re-release. Didn't even see the sales mumbo jumbo

 

[jorgejjvr]

so 25% of PS4's first month, which came out right when Xbox1 did?
Not impressed at all.

I also predict a huge drop in sales in April,
If you wanted to play zelda you are already playing zelda, after that what else is there?

Slow re release of old stuff i already own? MK8, D5. Splatoon not until july.
Not impressed at all.

Best launch lineup of the big 3. Xbone and ps4 had, in my opinion, not a great launch year.

In 9 months, from March to December. We are getting the best Zelda game in a long time, a Mario kart game, arms a new iP, sequel to splatoon, fire emblem warriors, xenoblade, skyrim, snipper clips, fast rmx, a new Mario game in the vein of 64. All of this not counting all the other small 3rd party games and ninties. Also not counting the announcements at e3.

We are getting better content, than 3 years of wii u in months. Many heavy hitters and great games. Honestly, quite a great launch lineup for the year, not sure how people still think it is lackluster

 

[CrisKre]

Some people really lose their marbles with Nintendo being successful. It's pretty entertaining if a bit sad.

 

[foxuzamaki]

Oh god, first post I see is from ninjablade, i thought he was gone

 

[NSESN]

One thing that Nintendo is more successful than sony for sure is as a publisher.

 

[AniHawk]

He specifically said to exclude NES & SNES. But either way, it's really close. If we exclude the GameBoy altogether since it released before Sony entered the market, Sony comes out on top by about 23 million units. But the GameBoy + GameBoy Color most likely sold way more than 23 million units from the time Sony entered the market. So Nintendo probably goes ahead again.

game boy sold 64m units between 1996 (right when pokemon launched) and 2002 (when it was discontinued). 49m of that was gbc, which launched in 1998.

between 1989 and 1996, the gb sold 54m units.

 

[AdventureRacing]

Not necessarily, switch could keep pace with ps4 and the 3ds still has a bunch more sales left in it

Hadn't really factored in the 3DS though I doubt it's got much more than say 5 million left to sell. You're right though it won't happen for a while but with Sonys strong market position it feels inevitable at some point.

Switch is not going to keep pace with PS4 in anywhere in the world but Japan lol.

Depends what you mean. Remember we're only talking about sales going forward. The PS4 has already sold 55 million and will have peaked this year or last year. The switches best years are all ahead of it.

So whilst the switch absolutely won't match the PS4 long term it is possible that it will sell similar if not larger numbers in the next 3-4 years. With 3DS numbers I doubt Sony would be making much ground.

It's a fairly meaningless metric anyway.

 

[frankie_baby]

Hadn't really factored in the 3DS though I doubt it's got much more than say 5 million left to sell. You're right though it won't happen for a while but with Sonys strong market position it feels inevitable at some point.



Depends what you mean. Remember we're only talking about sales going forward. The PS4 has already sold 55 million and will have peaked this year or last year. The switches best years are all ahead of it.

So whilst the switch absolutely won't match the PS4 long term it is possible that it will sell similar if not larger numbers in the next 3-4 years. With 3DS numbers I doubt Sony would be making much ground.

It's a fairly meaningless metric anyway.

I tgink the 3ds might surprise people, i think it'll finish up close to 80 million

 

[AniHawk]

I tgink the 3ds might surprise people, i think it'll finish up close to 80 million

i agree. i think its next price drop should keep it relatively flat over the next fiscal year, and this fiscal year it should end up with about 7m systems sold and 67m total. sales are going to be somewhere between 75-80m when all is said and done. if it had the lifespan of the psp, it probably would have eclipsed it in the end.

 

[frankie_baby]

i agree. i think its next price drop should keep it relatively flat over the next fiscal year, and this fiscal year it should end up with about 7m systems sold and 67m total. sales are going to be somewhere between 75-80m when all is said and done. if it had the lifespan of the psp, it probably would have eclipsed it in the end.

With the switch having no BC i could see it maybe still being sold til 2020

 

[D.Lo]

game boy sold 64m units between 1996 (right when pokemon launched) and 2002 (when it was discontinued). 49m of that was gbc, which launched in 1998.

between 1989 and 1996, the gb sold 54m units.

Source? I need some bookmarks on that I'm always arguing with people on GBC sales!

Hadn't really factored in the 3DS though I doubt it's got much more than say 5 million left to sell. You're right though it won't happen for a while but with Sonys strong market position it feels inevitable at some point.

But 'strong market position' has proven again and again to be irrelevant in this industry if a competitor is there with something more desirable.

Nintendo lost 50% of the market after the NES in the US to Sega, despite having a better console (in 95% of respects), largely just because Sega managed to paint them as uncool and released first. Sony was baited into releasing the PS3 too early by a competitor they had just destroyed last generation (MS), and then with the disruptive Wii around managed to have the biggest single collapse between generations in history (PS2-PS3). Nintendo then somehow managed to have an even bigger collapse by releasing the stupidest follow up to the Wii possible. Microsoft should have dominated the US with a 360 competitor, but stuffed it.

Sony's only chance of retaking the hardware lead against Nintendo is PS5, and it's a complete unknown.

i agree. i think its next price drop should keep it relatively flat over the next fiscal year, and this fiscal year it should end up with about 7m systems sold and 67m total. sales are going to be somewhere between 75-80m when all is said and done. if it had the lifespan of the psp, it probably would have eclipsed it in the end.

Switch is quite expensive, maybe the next full Pokemon is cross gen? It might live on quite a while as a budget system.

 

[Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule]

Slow re release of old stuff i already own? MK8, D5. Splatoon not until july.
Not impressed at all.

I'll take the bait just to make sure you know that the re-release of MK8 will sell more than almost every console exclusive out there. Impressive if you ask me.

 

[NateDrake]

i agree. i think its next price drop should keep it relatively flat over the next fiscal year, and this fiscal year it should end up with about 7m systems sold and 67m total. sales are going to be somewhere between 75-80m when all is said and done. if it had the lifespan of the psp, it probably would have eclipsed it in the end.

If they can get the 2DS down to $70 and 3DS to $129 or maybe lower, it'll hit 80m when all is said and done. I imagine we'll see a price cut later this year.

 

[AniHawk]

If they can get the 2DS down to $70 and 3DS to $129 or maybe lower, it'll hit 80m when all is said and done. I imagine we'll see a price cut later this year.

2ds is already $80 with mario kart 7. i don't see another drop having a major effect.

for this year, a drop from $200 to $130 would probably need to be built into their fy planning. it seems pretty hefty and probably not worth it unless they are planning on keeping it around for another 3 years.

 

[RM8]

Some people really lose their marbles with Nintendo being successful. It's pretty entertaining if a bit sad.

This is something I miss a lot from the Wii era. People raging so hard and coming up with the most creative arguments to discredit Nintendo is always entertaining! Wii belonged to 6th gen, we shouldn't consider Wii when deciding who "won" the generation, Wii had no influence in the industry (Move, Kinect were just coincidentally similar), people who bought a Wii didn't actually like it and never bought games for it, Wii only had waggle mini game collections, etc.

 

[AniHawk]

Source? I need some bookmarks on that I'm always arguing with people on GBC sales!

i really can't remember. the full gb sales i got from aquamarine though:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=701305

 

[AdventureRacing]

I tgink the 3ds might surprise people, i think it'll finish up close to 80 million

To be honest I haven't thought much about the 3DS will wind up selling. Id be surprised at 80 million but I think it has more life in it. Certainly enough to bridge the gap between the PS4 and switch if there is one in the next few years.

But 'strong market position' has proven again and again to be irrelevant in this industry if a competitor is there with something more desirable.

Nintendo lost 50% of the market after the NES in the US to Sega, despite having a better console (in 95% of respects), largely just because Sega managed to paint them as uncool and released first. Sony was baited into releasing the PS3 too early by a competitor they had just destroyed last generation (MS), and then with the disruptive Wii around managed to have the biggest single collapse between generations in history (PS2-PS3). Nintendo then somehow managed to have an even bigger collapse by releasing the stupidest follow up to the Wii possible. Microsoft should have dominated the US with a 360 competitor, but stuffed it.

Sony's only chance of retaking the hardware lead against Nintendo is PS5, and it's a complete unknown.

Switch is quite expensive, maybe the next full Pokemon is cross gen? It might live on quite a while as a budget system.

I agree that nothing is guaranteed. The PS4 is going to end up selling incredibly well and that puts them in a great position going forward. It depends how they handle that next transition but certainly they're in the best position of the big 3 going forward to continue selling the most HW. So many things can change in that time though.

 

[Nester99]

I admit my math is wonky, and wrong.

Here is what i meant and my source.

The Nintendo Switch was released on March 3, meaning it sold nearly 1 million units in its first 29 days of availability. For context, Microsoft moved more than 2 million Xbox One units in its first 18 days of availability while Sony moved 2.1 million PlayStation 4 units in that console’s first 14 days, according to CNBC.

http://www.polygon.com/2017/4/13/12887838/nintendo-switch-sales-figures-npd

The switch moved half the amount of units compared to the PS4 and the switch had double the amount of time. Clearly that is not 25% so i take that back, but still not impressed for the same reasons !

The article does not state US or World sales so if that is wrong, feel free to write Polygon.

 

[frankie_baby]

I admit my math is wonky, and wrong.

Here is what i meant and my source.



http://www.polygon.com/2017/4/13/12887838/nintendo-switch-sales-figures-npd

The switch moved half the amount of units compared to the PS4 and the switch had double the amount of time. Clearly that is not 25% so i take that back, but still not impressed for the same reasons !

The article does not state US or World sales so if that is wrong, feel free to write Polygon.

That was also christmas, selling a million in march is pretty insane

 

[D.Lo]

I agree that nothing is guaranteed. The PS4 is going to end up selling incredibly well and that puts them in a great position going forward. It depends how they handle that next transition but certainly they're in the best position of the big 3 going forward to continue selling the most HW. So many things can change in that time though.

I agree they are in the current best position. But I wouldn't say the PS4 is selling incredibly well, it's beaten competitors but it is no PS2 or Wii, it only beats previous Sony consoles on 'sales LTD' graphs because they all had slower starts because their predecessors were still selling very well (whereas PS3 was long in the tooth because they stretched that generation out).

But it's dominating such a declining market I can't see history being too relevant to predict it from now on. Even with a big-push more powerful mid gen power bump (Pro), it seems unlikely to me the PS4 will make the 100 million club with PS1/PS2/Wii/DS, so this will be the first generation in 20 years no console has hit that, and the competitors crashed even harder. It could sell around PS3 levels if Scorpio and Switch take either end of the market decently.

That said it's still better than Microsoft who essentially have just one more doll of the dice with Scorpio, and Nintendo who have a huge recovery required with lots of work to do (but a good start obviously). Really the whole industry is on something of a minor precipice IMO.

 

[Laughing Banana]

Oh god, first post I see is from ninjablade, i thought he was gone

His hatred towards Nintendo is his lifeforce. As long as Nintendo is still alive, so will ninjablade to ensure that all in the world know how lame he thinks Nintendo is.

 

[NateDrake]

2ds is already $80 with mario kart 7. i don't see another drop having a major effect.

for this year, a drop from $200 to $130 would probably need to be built into their fy planning. it seems pretty hefty and probably not worth it unless they are planning on keeping it around for another 3 years.

Wow, 2DS is already that cheap? Haven't really given it much attention recently. The 3DS is still priced too high. $130 may be a bit drastic, but maybe $150 would be enough. The system still has plenty of life left in it with software releases coming this year.

 

[Nester99]

That was also christmas, selling a million in march is pretty insane

In my opinion the release of Xbox1 the same week and selling 2 million units of its own mitigates the a lot of the Christmas demand.