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[Hero]

No kidding, haha.
Part of the reason I post significantly less lately. After over 12 years, it wears on you

Been here since before the new NeoGAF launched and yeah, it can wear on you.

Part of me misses the older days when we were smaller and didn't have as many trolls/drivebyposters/alts. C'est la vie.

 

[kyser73]

Because the Wii U flopped horrendously and it's sales fell off a clip a month or so in and it became readily available shortly after launch. The Switch is still selling out and has already done far better than the Wii U in the same down of time so it's more than fair to say that's attracting more than the hardcore Nintendo audience. Unless you can point to another hyped desired system that stopped selling well within a year or so

Also, seeing as the Switch is new and hard to get at the moment, it's not too surprising most gamers don't have it yet

The Switch is readily available in many markets, just not NA and JPN. I know for a fact you can walk-in to buy one here in Australia, NZ is the same, and a quick check on some EU amazon show the grey model as being in stock/2-4 days to deliver to sold out.

There is, as yet, little publicly available evidence to suggest non-Nintendo fans are buying into Switch. It's why I asked this earlier in the thread:

Is there any publicly available data on Switch buyer's pre-existing set-up/purchasing history?

Are current Switch buyers the Nintendo faithful or existing multi-system owners, or are Nintendo reaching past those audiences?

Is there any indication that once the Nintendo/multi-system group is exhausted that the console can reach past those audiences?

 

[samar11]

The Switch is readily available in many markets, just not NA and JPN. I know for a fact you can walk-in to buy one here in Australia, NZ is the same, and a quick check on some EU amazon show the grey model as being in stock/2-4 days to deliver to sold out.

There is, as yet, little publicly available evidence to suggest non-Nintendo fans are buying into Switch. It's why I asked this earlier in the thread:

Yeh I can say the same, I seen them everywhere here in Australia but then again it is a tiny market.

 

[titiklabingapat]

How can you say clearly without any evidence. I can say the same about it only attracting the core fans because none of my friends who had owned a Wii bought a Wii U or the switch.

Because the Wii U's sales fell off the cliff after the first two months of launch. We are already on the fourth month of the Switch and all indicators are that it is still sold out in Japan and the USA, two of the most important markets, even with hundreds of thousands of unit restocks. Are these not evidence enough for you?

Not to diminish everyone else's markets but Japan and NA are where the vast majority of sales happen. They set trends whether you like it or not. Are we seriously debating this?

 

[AquaWateria]

Because the Wii U's sales fell off the cliff after the first two months of launch. We are already on the fourth month of the Switch and all indicators are that it is still sold out in Japan and the USA, two of the most important markets, even with hundreds of thousands of unit restocks. Are these not evidence enough for you?

Not to diminish everyone else's markets but Japan and NA are where the vast majority of sales happen and sets trends whether you like it or not.

If they can't accept it now they never will sadly.

 

[titiklabingapat]

The Switch is readily available in many markets, just not NA and JPN. I know for a fact you can walk-in to buy one here in Australia, NZ is the same, and a quick check on some EU amazon show the grey model as being in stock/2-4 days to deliver to sold out.

There is, as yet, little publicly available evidence to suggest non-Nintendo fans are buying into Switch. It's why I asked this earlier in the thread:

You can extrapolate from the other Nintendo console launches: it took the Wii U 4 years to reach 10M users. Do you honestly expect the Switch to do the same thing in a year and then die off? Is there a Nintendo overlord somewhere directing each and every one of those 10M Wii U buyers to magically buy 10M Switches in one year?

Historical precedence and market realities show us that a console that sells 10M in a year will go on to sell at least close to that same amount in the second year and then a repeat on the third year. Are you gonna call those 10M core Nintendo fans too for a total of 20M? Where were they during the Wii U days? Were they all lapsed Gamecube owners perhaps? Those 20M GC owners bought them overe a 6 year period. And again, where were they during the Wii U days?

 

[TwistedFreeze]

The Switch is readily available in many markets, just not NA and JPN. I know for a fact you can walk-in to buy one here in Australia, NZ is the same, and a quick check on some EU amazon show the grey model as being in stock/2-4 days to deliver to sold out.

There is, as yet, little publicly available evidence to suggest non-Nintendo fans are buying into Switch. It's why I asked this earlier in the thread:

Considering that NA and JPN are arguably their biggest markets, that's still pretty impressive. Europe has traditionally been their weakest market and I don't think Australia or New Zealand are particularly huge markets in general, correct me if I'm wrong.

When the Switch outsells the Wii U within a year or so, will you guys accept that it's appealing to more than the hardcore Nintendo fanbase?

 

[PdotMichael]

It's relative simple. We know the Switch is more successful than the WiiU but we don't where the ceiling is because of the relative low stock.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Considering that NA and JPN are arguably their biggest markets, that's still pretty impressive. Europe has traditionally been their weakest market and I don't think Australia or New Zealand are particularly huge markets in general, correct me if I'm wrong.

When the Switch outsells the Wii U within a year or so, will you guys accept that it's appealing to more than the hardcore Nintendo fanbase?

There were 22M GC owners so you might have to wait for the third year.

 

[Hilarion]

The Wii U sold 4.6 million worldwide in its first year (Nov 2012-Dec 2013).

The Switch should be right around that neighborhood, or a few hundred thousand under, by the end of June worldwide. (March 2017-June 2017)

That's clearly very different.

 

[D3VI0US]

I think it might be possible for Switch to sell more in it's first calendar year than Wii U did in it's lifetime. I mean it's what between 13 to 14 million right? All Switch has to do is sell 4 million a quarter and an extra 1.5 million during the holidays. Not entirely out of the question, would have been possible if the rumors about Pokemon Stars and Smash were true, still there is a shot.

 

[Humdinger]

Since this question --

Who is "the individual compiling the prediction results"?

-- was met with awkward silence, I'll assume that is information that cannot be shared.

So, I'll ask a simpler question: When do we find out whose prediction came closest?

 

[kyser73]

Because the Wii U's sales fell off the cliff after the first two months of launch. We are already on the fourth month of the Switch and all indicators are that it is still sold out in Japan and the USA, two of the most important markets, even with hundreds of thousands of unit restocks. Are these not evidence enough for you?

Not to diminish everyone else's markets but Japan and NA are where the vast majority of sales happen. They set trends whether you like it or not. Are we seriously debating this?

The counter argument is that WiiU greatly disappointed Nintendo fans out of the gate as being a poor piece of hardware, overpriced and without a standout launch title like Zelda, and was completely unable to reach outside the core Nintendo audience - and he WiiU represented a contraction on the GC too.

Did this indicate a shrinking core Nintendo market, or simply that WiiU was just a bad product that failed to find an audience?

My own prediction for NSW LTD sales is around the NES/current 3DS level, dependent on when Nintendo release a successor and how long they continue to support or develop their 'traditional' handheld. I also think that there is also a chance that once it hits 20-30m its sales velocity will being to slow if it doesn't reach beyond the core audience of Nintendo & multi-console owners, and at present aside from saying 'But look at how quickly its selling!!' you haven't really made a case for an extended audience buying in yet as those sales could easily be largely confined to traditional Nintendo buyers.

Tl:dr - the current run of sales could be equally indicative of pent-up demand from the core Nintendo audience due to the WiiU being poor as it could be of the Switch reaching beyond that market.

Since this question --



-- was met with awkward silence, I'll assume that is information that cannot be shared.

So, I'll ask a simpler question: When do we find out whose prediction came closest?

donny2112 compiles the ranking based on access to the real numbers, then posters like Liabe Brave, ethomaz & hanspampel will do the guestimation on final h/ware sales.

Not sure when when the results ranking will be done tho...

 

[Nightengale]

The sales momentum of the Switch at the moment is clearly ahead and more successful than the WiiU was. There is no doubting that.

But the elephant in the room for Switch is "what does its sales represent in the broader ecosystem of Nintendo?"

Can Nintendo release a 3DS successor ( separate from Switch ) with the existence of a Switch? If they do, how much impact does a Switch has on that, given that a Switch will effectively make up a chunk of the experiences that were previously distinct on two separate Nintendo platforms, now that a core Pokemon is coming to Switch.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

With MS pushing BC so hard on Xbox One and Windows Store on PC, I think it kind of 'forces' Sony to match that capability on the theoretical but likely Playstation 5. If they don't, it would be a significant competitive advantage to Microsoft on the Xbox Two or Xbox 8K or whatever the hell they're going to call it. And that's a good thing. I want my library of games to carry with me from now on, especially digital titles. I was very conservative with what I bought on PS3 PSN and I'm glad because it upsets me that a lot of the PS1/PS2 classics I bought aren't playable on my PS4.

If PS5 isn't, AT THE ABSOLUTE LEAST, backwards compatible with the PS4, and the Xbox 2 is, then the Xbox will be my first purchase, and I will get a PS5 down the line, once the library grows.

 

[kyser73]

If PS5 isn't, AT THE ABSOLUTE LEAST, backwards compatible with the PS4, and the Xbox 2 is, then the Xbox will be my first purchase, and I will get a PS5 down the line, once the library grows.

For me it'll be simply hanging onto my Pro until I can afford the PS5 without trading in & up, which is my usual upgrade path.

Not too fussed about PS1-3 BC, but yeah not being able to transfer my PS4 collection to a PS5 given how much of it is digital would be annoying.

 

[D.Lo]

The counter argument is that WiiU greatly disappointed Nintendo fans out of the gate as being a poor piece of hardware, overpriced and without a standout launch title like Zelda, and was completely unable to reach outside the core Nintendo audience - and he WiiU represented a contraction on the GC too.

Did this indicate a shrinking core Nintendo market, or simply that WiiU was just a bad product that failed to find an audience?

These are the same thing. Nintendo makes products that sometimes people buy when they like them. Not many liked the Wii U. 65 million so far liked the 3DS. Maybe ~200 million liked the Wii/DS.

The highest selling (non bundled) games on Wii and DS were Mario, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, these games sold 30 million each, far more than any sku on PS3, 360, PS4, XO. Only maybe 20% were 'casual' things like Brain training and Wii Fit.

you haven't really made a case for an extended audience buying in yet as those sales could easily be largely confined to traditional Nintendo buyers.

What is a traditional Nintendo buyer? You have to explain what that is. What 'tradition' do they follow? Are they the same consumers getting older? A demographic? I'd say there are maybe only 5 million who buy stuff just because it is Nintendo. Even the Wii U has millions of buyers who didn't get Mario Kart and Smash and Mario and Splatoon etc, just Just Dance and kids with Cars 3 etc.

But there are clearly 100-200 million+ (Wii and DS audience) who may be interested in buying Nintendo if they like a particular product. Maybe they have a 'Nintendo tradition' of buying what they like, and not buying what they don't like.

I don't even think the incredibly consistent last 15 years of Pokemon sales are from any kind of 'traditional buyers', as the game is popular with kids who were not even alive for half the series history. A new audience is constantly being built while some others drop off.

 

[Humdinger]

donny2112 compiles the ranking based on access to the real numbers, then posters like Liabe Brave, ethomaz & hanspampel will do the guestimation on final h/ware sales.

Not sure when when the results ranking will be done tho...

I see. Thank you!

 

[kyser73]

These are the same thing. Nintendo makes products that sometimes people buy when they like them. Not many liked the Wii U. 65 million so far liked the 3DS. Maybe ~200 million liked the Wii/DS.

The highest selling (non bundled) games on Wii and DS were Mario, Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, these games sold 30 million each, far more than any sku on PS3, 360, PS4, XO. Only maybe 20% were 'casual' things like Brain training and Wii Fit.

What is a traditional Nintendo buyer? You have to explain what that is. What 'tradition' do they follow? Are they the same consumers getting older? A demographic? I'd say there are maybe only 5 million who buy stuff just because it is Nintendo. Even the Wii U has millions of buyers who didn't get Mario Kart and Smash and Mario and Splatoon etc, just Just Dance and kids with Cars 3 etc.

But there are clearly 100-200 million+ (Wii and DS audience) who may be interested in buying Nintendo if they like a particular product. Maybe they have a 'Nintendo tradition' of buying what they like, and not buying what they don't like.

I don't even think the incredibly consistent last 15 years of Pokemon sales are from any kind of 'traditional buyers', as the game is popular with kids who were not even alive for half the series history. A new audience is constantly being built while some others drop off.

I think my point about historical audience data was pretty clear.

If you choose to obfuscate the question by focusing on the word 'traditional' and saying 'Anyone who has previously bought a Nintendo product' as the audience, this debate isn't going anywhere.

Actually, just focusing on this:

Maybe ~200 million liked the Wii/DS.

Meaningless number, as it doesn't even begin to address things like dual ownership. That's the same as saying that all 155mn PS2 sales were to unique owners, and this represents Sony's biggest potential audience.

 

[Hilarion]

I think my point about historical audience data was pretty clear.

If you choose to obfuscate the question by focusing on the word 'traditional' and saying 'Anyone who has previously bought a Nintendo product' as the audience, this debate isn't going anywhere.

Actually, just focusing on this:



Meaningless number, as it doesn't even begin to address things like dual ownership.

Is that audience the same as the Nintendo home console audience, though? The 3DS was a fairly successful system alive at the same time as the Wii U. If the Switch is converting 3DS owners, then it could put up a pretty reasonable performance on that alone.

 

[D.Lo]

I think my point about historical audience data was pretty clear.

If you choose to obfuscate the question by focusing on the word 'traditional' and saying 'Anyone who has previously bought a Nintendo product' as the audience, this debate isn't going anywhere.

All that snark, so little reply to question...

traditional Nintendo buyers.

core Nintendo audience

Your quotes, your terms. The basis of your argument. Define them.

Actually, just focusing on this:

Meaningless number, as it doesn't even begin to address things like dual ownership. That's the same as saying that all 155mn PS2 sales were to unique owners, and this represents Sony's biggest potential audience.

I said 'maybe', there is no data on how many people bought a SNES/N64/GC/GBA/Wii U/NES Mini but not a Wii or DS (many anecdotal accounts on GAF start with 'I used to be a Nintendo fan but dropped them after the SNES/N64/GC for example). And it clearly addressed dual ownership even if just looking at their biggest gen by itself, as Wii + DS actually sold 255 million combined.

 

[kyser73]

Is that audience the same as the Nintendo home console audience, though? The 3DS was a fairly successful system alive at the same time as the Wii U. If the Switch is converting 3DS owners, then it could put up a pretty reasonable performance on that alone.

My edit touches on this, but yes, this is completely correct. It's exactly this kind of datapoint that is useful, and unavailable, in these sales discussions.

Anecdotally, for example, everyone I know who games on a 2 or 3DS system has at least 2 (the second one mainly being a Pokemon LE or similar).

What percentage of overall unit sales are made up by second;unit purchasers? If it's 1% it's negligible against overall sales, if in the case of the DS it represents 10% of total sales, that does have a material impact on the over audience size vs units sold (which therefore also impacts on potential s/ware sales by volume if not value).

 

[kyser73]

All that snark, so little reply to question...

Which question? You asked several...

Your quotes, your terms. The basis of your argument. Define them.

OK: someone who has bought more than one Nintendo platform across generations.

I said 'maybe', there is no data on how many people bought a SNES/N64/GC/GBA/Wii U/NES Mini but not a Wii or DS (many anecdotal accounts on GAF start with 'I used to be a Nintendo fan but dropped them after the SNES/N64/GC for example). And it clearly addressed dual ownership even if just looking at their biggest gen by itself, as Wii + DS actually sold 255 million combined.

Which is where my point about audience begins and your points that are solely related to unit sales ends.

 

[D.Lo]

OK: someone who has bought more than one Nintendo platform across generations.

There is no possible way of defining that number. So how exactly can you know when the Switch has reached beyond it? You could not, and so your argument has no basis.

But if we use that definition, Nintendo has sold over 700 million consoles in history (not even counting multi-million sellers like Color TV game, Game & Watch, Pokemon Mini, iQue...). My personal guess of how many humans have bought more than one Nintendo platform at 200 million minimum.

 

[kyser73]

There is no possible way of defining that number. So how exactly can you know when the Switch has reached beyond it? You could not, and so your argument has no basis.

But if we use that definition, Nintendo has sold over 700 million consoles in history (not even counting multi-million sellers like Color TV game, Game & Watch, Pokemon Mini, iQue...). My personal guess of how many humans have bought more than one Nintendo platform at 200 million minimum.

You say my argument has no basis, and then go on to use it to reach the number 200mn.

You could define that number using longitudinal sales + qualitative data on previous ownership, but that's not publicly available.

 

[D.Lo]

You say my argument has no basis, and then go on to use it to reach the number 200mn.

You could define that number using longitudinal sales + qualitative data on previous ownership, but that's not publicly available.

No. I did not try to define it. I said my personal guess, based on the data, and even then just suggested a possible minimum.

I think it's unlikely even Nintendo has high quality data comparing ownership crossover over 35 years, from Famicom to Switch. If they did, yes they could define it. Do you have that data?

 

[Mandoric]

Because the Wii U's sales fell off the cliff after the first two months of launch. We are already on the fourth month of the Switch and all indicators are that it is still sold out in Japan and the USA, two of the most important markets, even with hundreds of thousands of unit restocks. Are these not evidence enough for you?

Not to diminish everyone else's markets but Japan and NA are where the vast majority of sales happen. They set trends whether you like it or not. Are we seriously debating this?

Europe's scaling fast and China's scaling faster. The current big trend is China-centric.

It is fair to say that within the tiny branded console bubble, Switch is set to be a PSP. 75m units as the portable of choice is a wonderful position to be in, and bodes well for Nintendo keeping on being Nintendo. It's just smaller than even the 3DS, and that position being filled bodes extremely poorly for other players.

You could argue "but China doesn't play the games I like!", but the flipside of that is that you're declaring Japan to be #1 at Japanese games, which is somewhere between a tautology and a cut outtake from Ralph Wiggum.

 

[kyser73]

No. I did not try to define it. I said my personal guess, based on the data, and even then just suggested a possible minimum.

I think it's unlikely even Nintendo has high quality data comparing ownership crossover over 35 years, from Famicom to Switch. If they did, yes they could define it. Do you have that data?

I wish. Even getting duplication data within DS sales would be useful to illustrate the difference between unit sales and audience.

Same applies to knowing something like replacement rate on PS2 - clearly that wasn't 155mn sales to individual buyers.

 

[Mandoric]

I wish. Even getting duplication data within DS sales would be useful to illustrate the difference between unit sales and audience.

Same applies to knowing something like replacement rate on PS2 - clearly that wasn't 155mn sales to individual buyers.

The thing with replacement rate is that while it's useful, knowing it for only specified platforms isn't. How many PS2 replacers also double-dipped on a PSOne or just a 7500 they didn't have to flip over (which worked for some PS2s too, ironically?) We know fairly solidly from third-party warranty data that there were fewer of them than X360 replacers, but how many iffy fat PS2s (and how many I-won't-risk-it X360s) went to little brothers or off to the guest bedroom for DVDs and Netflix?

Shit, replacement NES cartridge connectors didn't hit the US market in bulk until the mid-2000s.

 

[theprodigy]

Europe's scaling fast and China's scaling faster. The current big trend is China-centric.

It is fair to say that within the tiny branded console bubble, Switch is set to be a PSP. 75m units as the portable of choice is a wonderful position to be in, and bodes well for Nintendo keeping on being Nintendo. It's just smaller than even the 3DS, and that position being filled bodes extremely poorly for other players.

You could argue "but China doesn't play the games I like!", but the flipside of that is that you're declaring Japan to be #1 at Japanese games, which is somewhere between a tautology and a cut outtake from Ralph Wiggum.

you uh, might want to check 3DS sales again?

 

[kyser73]

The thing with replacement rate is that while it's useful, knowing it for only specified platforms isn't. How many PS2 replacers also double-dipped on a PSOne or just a 7500 they didn't have to flip over (which worked for some PS2s too, ironically?) We know fairly solidly from third-party warranty data that there were fewer of them than X360 replacers, but how many iffy fat PS2s (and how many I-won't-risk-it X360s) went to little brothers or off to the guest bedroom for DVDs and Netflix?

Shit, replacement NES cartridge connectors didn't hit the US market in bulk until the mid-2000s.

I completely agree with this, I was using replacement rate as an example metric that needs to be considered when assessing audience size/growth etc.

PS4 Pro sales are a small, if useful example:

There are ~2m Pro sales as of May.
40% of these were to existing customers, so 800K units

From this, we can say that even though Sony have sold 60.4mn PS4/pro units, the audience of PS4 buyers is a maximum of 59.6m.

Not a huge gap in the grand scheme of things, but illustrative of how unit sales don't tell the whole story.

 

[Mandoric]

you uh, might want to check 3DS sales again?

I'm assuming that Nintendo will clear 20-30% of LTD after successor launch, which is in line with both Nintendo and Sony historical results.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

It's relative simple. We know the Switch is more successful than the WiiU but we don't where the ceiling is because of the relative low stock.

We only know that it is selling faster than the WiiU. It seems to be severely supply limited also. It's still selling to early adopters at this stage.

10 months in will give a clearer picture.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I completely agree with this, I was using replacement rate as an example metric that needs to be considered when assessing audience size/growth etc.

PS4 Pro sales are a small, if useful example:

There are ~2m Pro sales as of May.
40% of these were to existing customers, so 800K units

From this, we can say that even though Sony have sold 60.4mn PS4/pro units, the audience of PS4 buyers is a maximum of 59.6m.

Not a huge gap in the grand scheme of things, but illustrative of how unit sales don't tell the whole story.

I get your point, but it's not a great example, since 0.8m in 60.4m is essentially a rounding error.

 

[kyser73]

I see. Thank you!

PMd but here's the page with the May results:

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1381182&page=100000#footer

 

[gtj1092]

Because the Wii U flopped horrendously and it's sales fell off a clip a month or so in and it became readily available shortly after launch. The Switch is still selling out and has already done far better than the Wii U in the same down of time so it's more than fair to say that's attracting more than the hardcore Nintendo audience. Unless you can point to another hyped desired system that stopped selling well within a year or so

Also, seeing as the Switch is new and hard to get at the moment, it's not too surprising most gamers don't have it yet

It's also replacing the 3DS. Plus being sold out doesn't mean much with the incredibly low numbers they are shipping. It's sales don't seem extraordinary at the moment. When there is more stock we'll get a better picture.

Also just judging by Amazon sales list I would say a large percentage of current owners are hardcore fans.

 

[Omnistalgic]

It's relative simple. We know the Switch is more successful than the WiiU but we don't where the ceiling is because of the relative low stock.

QFT

Honestly, wtf are you guys even debating about now? Just wait...

 

[EGM1966]

QFT

Honestly, wtf are you guys even debating about now? Just wait...

Unfortunately a reasonable number of gamers suffer from Premature Opinionitis.

 

[Birgitte2004]

We only know that it is selling faster than the WiiU. It seems to be severely supply limited also. It's still selling to early adopters at this stage.

10 months in will give a clearer picture.

I'm not sure in this case it's time related. We'll get a clearer picture once Nintendo's own games have a lull in the release schedule.

It is impossible to tell the difference between "The Switch is hugely desired by everyone!" and "The Switch is hugely desired by those who love Zelda and Mario Kart!" right now.

 

[Turrican3]

You'll have to show how "less software" is being made

There are multiple, similar claims in this very thread by people definitely better informed than me.

On the other hand, you still have to provide source for "more games are made today than ever before".

It certainly isn't showing in revenue or stocks (why'd you skip our revenue point when I told you games haven't increased in price?).

I won't comment on stocks because I have little to no knowledge.

Regarding revenues, I'm simply not sure they can be used alone as a metric for success for obvious reasons (if costs go up you might end up with less net profit despite higher revenues), and it seems to me the current business model is exploiting even more extra sources, so MSRP and the like won't give us the whole picture.

I'm also quite confident prices are actually going up especially on the Nintendo side (at least they are increasing here in Italy), regardless of whether we see the Switch as a portable or a home console.

 

[hanspampel]

What games are you talking about?
Packaged software? AAA?
Digital indie games? Mobile games?
Oberall?

First 2 are less
Everything else is more

 

[OrbitalBeard]

How can you say clearly without any evidence. I can say the same about it only attracting the core fans because none of my friends who had owned a Wii bought a Wii U or the switch.

The actual market realities are far better evidence than your little anecdotal story.

It is impossible to tell the difference between "The Switch is hugely desired by everyone!" and "The Switch is hugely desired by those who love Zelda and Mario Kart!" right now.

Well, the Switch is clearly not desired by everyone. However, I'd consider realistic numbers for a Zelda game only desired by those who love the IP to be A Link Between Worlds and Skyward Sword. We won't know for sure until July, but BotW has very likely outsold the LTD numbers of both games (not combined, obviously....yet) in less than four months.

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

I'm not sure in this case it's time related. We'll get a clearer picture once Nintendo's own games have a lull in the release schedule.

It is impossible to tell the difference between "The Switch is hugely desired by everyone!" and "The Switch is hugely desired by those who love Zelda and Mario Kart!" right now.

Oh trust me it's actually desired by a lot of people. You know how many celebrities and atheletes own the Switch. A lot. For example some may have own the Wii U but didn't show it but it's getting quite the mindshare. For example, Chance the Rapper posted a Switch and a copy of ARMS on his Snapchat. It's desired for sure.

 

[Humdinger]

PMd but here's the page with the May results:

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1381182&page=100000#footer

Thanks.

 

[MatPiscatella]

Honestly, wtf are you guys even debating about now?

This page has been something.

 

[TwistedFreeze]

It's also replacing the 3DS. Plus being sold out doesn't mean much with the incredibly low numbers they are shipping. It's sales don't seem extraordinary at the moment. When there is more stock we'll get a better picture.

Also just judging by Amazon sales list I would say a large percentage of current owners are hardcore fans.

It hasn't replaced the 3DS yet as the system is still selling decently and has software on the way

Even so, they're high enough to show it's attracting more than the super hardcore Nintendo audience if systems like the Wii U and GameCube are any indication. The former especially

Yeah, that's most people who buy systems early on and, even then, it's doing far better than the Wii U ever did

Is it really that hard to believe that the Switch is far more desired than the Wii U and will be a successful system?

 

[donny2112]

Oh, we're back to this generation being doomed? Neat.

It's a cycle. Everyone will feel much better once we're out of the preseason.

Spoiler

ba, dum, ching!

Up through the beginning of the GameCube era, Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft had mostly the same games. Exclusives were more of a thing, though. PS2 got most because it was far and away the market leader. *insert infamous E3 slide about 2nd place* After GameCube era, Nintendo intentionally marketed to a different group (i.e. blue ocean) in addition to their traditional core. After GameCube (and Nintendo generally being looked down on in the industry), most third-parties stopped trying to do the same games across all 3. They gave myriad reasons, many downright hysterical (e.g. "artistic vision"), but the end result is that the libraries of the Wii vs. PS360 became very different. This led to the industry basically looking at it (unfairly or not) as Nintendo and Sony/Microsoft being different markets. That has continued with the Wii U with almost zero significant third-party support from traditional Western publishers.

Switch may be different. Not being defined as purple. Not being defined by waggle (even though it has that as an option). Open-world masterpiece Zelda being launch title. (IMO) Skyrim being a major push at the start had a huge impact, too. The Nintendo console seems to not be being looked at as the Nintendo-only playground that Wii was unfairly viewed as and Wii U was fairly viewed as by traditional publishers. We'll see how that plays out over the remainder of this generation, though. With the world an increasingly mobile-centric place, a home console quality system available on the go may be a very good fit and not just for Nintendo.

 

[Nirolak]

My list was published before E3, and if I were to adjust it, the only change I might make would be AC:O in place of Destiny 2 at #5. NBA 2K has supplanted Madden as the #1 sports franchise in the US, and with the popularity of the NFL taking a bit of a hit I'm guessing it just misses top 5. Wouldn't be surprised to be wrong. They're predictions, just for fun type stuff. As for NFS, I don't see a world where a racing title will crack top 5 in the US.

Do you think Assassin's Creed: Origins might end up underperforming due to being singleplayer only?

It feels like Ubisoft's singleplayer focused games lately have been doing either conservatively or worse than expected (Watch Dogs 2, Unity, Syndicate, Far Cry Primal) while their online focused titles have been notably overperforming.

Watch Dogs 2 had a notably strong social media presence coming out of E3, but couldn't deliver in the end, so I'm not sure if Origins' response will actually translate to the final product to the degree Ubisoft would like it to.

 

[MatPiscatella]

Do you think Assassin's Creed: Origins might end up underperforming due to being singleplayer only?

How do you define underperform in this context? Last year, however, 9 of the top 10 best-sellers were service games (10 if you include Pokemon, which some do and some don't). I think AC:O could be right up there, certainly in the top 10 in Q4, perhaps in top 5. In this environment, I think that would be an outstanding result.

 

[AquaWateria]

Oh trust me it's actually desired by a lot of people. You know how many celebrities and atheletes own the Switch. A lot. For example some may have own the Wii U but didn't show it but it's getting quite the mindshare. For example, Chance the Rapper posted a Switch and a copy of ARMS on his Snapchat. It's desired for sure.

Wait what?