Foreign markets were stronger when those films released. ASM2 would be around 67% with current rates.
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Wkd BO 0630-070217 - Audiences want the D3, don't put Baby in corner but 2nd,
- Thread starter xaosslug
- Start date
Foreign markets were stronger when those films released. ASM2 would be around 67% with current rates.
Obliterator
Member
Yeah I know its gonna dip, I'm just saying people should still factor Foreign markets factoring pretty heavily in their total gross prediction is all.
Unless International markets somehow get turned off by the whole "High School" vibe but I don't think it will negatively impact it, and even if it did a bit that's why RDJ is there.
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
Zero
If Guardians can't hit 900 million, Chris Hemsworth ain't even gonna come close. I'm sure Thor will be great this year though
Is it wrong to think that JL can make more domestic than WW?
I mean, surely people are hungry for more Diana, then you add Batman to the mix, and I don't see how it does "worse".
And hey, WW is a fine film, but JL ending up as a better movie doesn't seem like an impossible task.
Is it wrong to think that JL can make more domestic than WW?
I mean, surely people are hungry for more Diana, then you add Batman to the mix, and I don't see how it does "worse".
And hey, WW is a fine film, but JL ending up as a better movie doesn't seem like an impossible task.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
About the film itself or the grosses?
The more I think about bits of the film, the more I like it in hindsight. But am still having that nagging feeling of disappointment that I had when I left the theater.
Even if there were great characters and scenes in it, it still just felt like Wright jerking off.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Spider-Man Homecoming Predictions
Before I begin, I wanted to look at the OW, LTD and multiplier for each Spider-Man movie, especially the one who had a great WOM which is likely going to be the case for Spider-Man Homecoming as well.
Spider-Man 1 - $114,844,11 OW - $403,706,375 LTD - 3.51 Multiplier
Spider-Man 2 - $88,156,227 OW - $373,585,825 LTD - 4.23 Multiplier
Spider-Man 3 - $151,116,516 OW - $336,530,303 LTD - 2.22 Multiplier
The Amazing Spider-Man - $62,004,688 OW - $262,030,663 LTD - 4.22 Multiplier
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $91,608,337 OW - $202,853,933 LTD - 2.21 Multiplier
So looking at the data above, the movies that have been well received by critics and fans are the ones that usually keep a steady box office after their initial opening. One such result is The Amazing Spider-Man which was received well by critics and it wasn't until the sequel that the movie completely tanked. Similar case for Spider-Man 3 where the bad WOM completely killed the movie.
I think Spider-Man has some good will coming for it since he was featured in Captain America Civil War and he had one of the most hyped appearance for a Super Hero. The movie is also getting rave reviews and WOM around it is going to be pretty good. However the OW isn't going to be as big as Spider-Man 3 here so my prediction for the domestic box office is one with a low OW but with a good hold over the weeks.
Spider-Man Homecoming
Opening Week: $110M
Domestic: $350M
International: $600M
Worldwide: $950M
I don't think it can reach a billion but it should come close. WOM and the weekend multiplier will be interesting to watch for sure.
Before I begin, I wanted to look at the OW, LTD and multiplier for each Spider-Man movie, especially the one who had a great WOM which is likely going to be the case for Spider-Man Homecoming as well.
Spider-Man 1 - $114,844,11 OW - $403,706,375 LTD - 3.51 Multiplier
Spider-Man 2 - $88,156,227 OW - $373,585,825 LTD - 4.23 Multiplier
Spider-Man 3 - $151,116,516 OW - $336,530,303 LTD - 2.22 Multiplier
The Amazing Spider-Man - $62,004,688 OW - $262,030,663 LTD - 4.22 Multiplier
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $91,608,337 OW - $202,853,933 LTD - 2.21 Multiplier
So looking at the data above, the movies that have been well received by critics and fans are the ones that usually keep a steady box office after their initial opening. One such result is The Amazing Spider-Man which was received well by critics and it wasn't until the sequel that the movie completely tanked. Similar case for Spider-Man 3 where the bad WOM completely killed the movie.
I think Spider-Man has some good will coming for it since he was featured in Captain America Civil War and he had one of the most hyped appearance for a Super Hero. The movie is also getting rave reviews and WOM around it is going to be pretty good. However the OW isn't going to be as big as Spider-Man 3 here so my prediction for the domestic box office is one with a low OW but with a good hold over the weeks.
Spider-Man Homecoming
Opening Week: $110M
Domestic: $350M
International: $600M
Worldwide: $950M
I don't think it can reach a billion but it should come close. WOM and the weekend multiplier will be interesting to watch for sure.
Obliterator
Member
If Justice League is even ok it should be the number 1 Super Hero film and yeah beat WW domestic.
But if its BvS quality.....yeah who knows. I don't think there's much chance its that bad though. I'm expecting to at least be average / mediocre levels
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
People are predicting some weird numbers for Thor 3. Like maybe some people are now legit believing Thor 2 was some box office smash success.
Justice League peforming better than Wonder Woman wouldn't be surprising. It's supposed to be an event film...however...it's legs might not be as good as they could be because of The Last Jedi...hell this will effect Thor 3 more so, which makes those predictions even more bizarre.
Nobody can turn a home run into a single like Zackwell Q. Snyder.
Spider-Man 2 and Amazing Spider-man opened on Wednesday and Tuesday respectively, so their multipliers are inflated. Both of them would have been under 3x OW if they opened on a Friday.
broncobuster
Banned
I think Thor Ragnarok will do quite well, but yes, people tend to overestimate Marvel Studios movies. GOTG1 was the last that went above expectations.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Oh, that makes sense. I was wondering why The Amazing Spider-Man had such a good multiplier.
I still believe Homecoming can have a 3x multiplier because of the WOM. Not to mention Iron Man is in it and there is finally a good Spider-Man movie after more than a decade.
Beren the Empty-Handed
Member
Spider-man Predictions
OW: 110m
DOM: 375m
WW: 850m
OW: 110m
DOM: 375m
WW: 850m
I don't know if most people expected $675M out of Doctor Strange.
andythinkpad
Member
So anybody has Valerian's opening tracking number? This is my most anticipate "bomba".
Fancyarcher
Member
I'm not sure McKnight will have final say on the film though, if anything Paramount will be hesitant to give a director "free control".
A curse indeed!
DarkLordMalik
Member
So looking at the data again, The Amazing Spider-Man had already made $75,017,570 before earning $62,004,688 on its first weekend. Thus the full weekend gross at that time was $137,022,258. It ended up with $262,030,663 LTD so not really a good hold over the weeks.
As for Spider-Man 2, it had grossed $64,255,524 before earning $88,156,227 over the weekend bringing the total to $152,411,751. It had a much better hold than The Amazing Spider-Man although one that still puts it below 3x multiplier. The film ended up with a gross of $373,585,825 so the multiplier was less than 3 for the film. It still had a great WOM surrounding it though as seen by the opening week + weekend gross which actually improved unlike The Amazing Spider-Man.
As for Spider-Man 2, it had grossed $64,255,524 before earning $88,156,227 over the weekend bringing the total to $152,411,751. It had a much better hold than The Amazing Spider-Man although one that still puts it below 3x multiplier. The film ended up with a gross of $373,585,825 so the multiplier was less than 3 for the film. It still had a great WOM surrounding it though as seen by the opening week + weekend gross which actually improved unlike The Amazing Spider-Man.
Fancyarcher
Member
Homecoming predictions for me.
OW: 115m
DOM: 328m
WW: 806m
Last I checked according to random sources, it was tracking around 20m. If reviews surprise it could go up of course.
OW: 115m
DOM: 328m
WW: 806m
Last I checked according to random sources, it was tracking around 20m. If reviews surprise it could go up of course.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Who needs the Bronson Bump when you got the New York Times giving you a push, right?
Their weekend box office report is a longer version of "yeah yeah, Despicable Me won the weekend blah whatever YO DID YOU SEE BABY DRIVER THO"
re: Spider-Man - I think diminishing returns w/ no breaks is going to stunt some of its earning potential. Spidey's been done three distinct times, and there's never really been all that long a break between re-do's. Even if this version is better than the last version (and there's no way it isn't) the novelty of it, the urgency of newness just won't be there, I don't think. It's why I went as conservative as I did (besides which if I'm gonna guess wrong in a B.O. thread I'd rather be surprised by success than to be disappointed by underperformance).
I sorta feel like the overwhelming emotion engendered by this film will be relief more than anything. Breakouts and long-legged box-office runs tend to use surprise and uplift like jet fuel. I don't think there's going to be a lot of surprise here, and the uplift will likely come in the form of "well good. Finally one of these that doesn't suck. It's where we shoulda been."
That lack of time/distance from Spidey might shrink its box-office potential. Maybe. It's why I went low, at least.
I'll be happy if (when) this turns out to be one of the numerous times I'm very wrong about something in public.
Their weekend box office report is a longer version of "yeah yeah, Despicable Me won the weekend blah whatever YO DID YOU SEE BABY DRIVER THO"
re: Spider-Man - I think diminishing returns w/ no breaks is going to stunt some of its earning potential. Spidey's been done three distinct times, and there's never really been all that long a break between re-do's. Even if this version is better than the last version (and there's no way it isn't) the novelty of it, the urgency of newness just won't be there, I don't think. It's why I went as conservative as I did (besides which if I'm gonna guess wrong in a B.O. thread I'd rather be surprised by success than to be disappointed by underperformance).
I sorta feel like the overwhelming emotion engendered by this film will be relief more than anything. Breakouts and long-legged box-office runs tend to use surprise and uplift like jet fuel. I don't think there's going to be a lot of surprise here, and the uplift will likely come in the form of "well good. Finally one of these that doesn't suck. It's where we shoulda been."
That lack of time/distance from Spidey might shrink its box-office potential. Maybe. It's why I went low, at least.
I'll be happy if (when) this turns out to be one of the numerous times I'm very wrong about something in public.
MHWilliams
Member
The basic guess for Spider-Man is $100 million opening, $300 domestic, $800 worldwide.
I think it's do slightly better opening weekend, so... $115 million, $300 domestic, $850 worldwide.
I think it's do slightly better opening weekend, so... $115 million, $300 domestic, $850 worldwide.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
That is almost exactly the set of numbers I went with as I was writing my post before ticking things up juuust a little bit.
By our powers combined, we are... Lore Drazi. Or something.
I feel the young white professional married dork couple, date night romp movie format is tired and lame.
"Haha. They're secure, but sexually stale. Now they're doing something adventurous."
We need comedies that fuck with people. Stuff out of comedy clubs, not middle-aged suburban, Second-City SNL alums. Something from the Always Sunny guys or Morm MacDonald would interest me.
The Appatow, Tina Fey, Sandler, Ferrell features are tired.
"Haha. They're secure, but sexually stale. Now they're doing something adventurous."
We need comedies that fuck with people. Stuff out of comedy clubs, not middle-aged suburban, Second-City SNL alums. Something from the Always Sunny guys or Morm MacDonald would interest me.
The Appatow, Tina Fey, Sandler, Ferrell features are tired.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I think (hope, more like it) that Logan Lucky makes some noise.
Bond as a fuckin weird bank robber in the employ of two thick-headed southern boys tryin to rob a speedway? Directed by Soderbergh?
I mean - it's probably just gonna be 2017's "The Nice Guys" but I would like for it to be a little more than that.
Bond as a fuckin weird bank robber in the employ of two thick-headed southern boys tryin to rob a speedway? Directed by Soderbergh?
I mean - it's probably just gonna be 2017's "The Nice Guys" but I would like for it to be a little more than that.
I never bother.
No one thinks it's going to be Inception. Interstellar domestic total is possible.
I believe. Don't tread on my dream.
I'll toss my hat into Thor the Third beating Spider-Man.
Why not
I make a habit of believing the impossible, anyways.
Thank you.
Now if you and everyone else decided to adopt this line of thought when the last one came out... >_>
Why not
I make a habit of believing the impossible, anyways.
Thank you.
Now if you and everyone else decided to adopt this line of thought when the last one came out... >_>
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
I consider myself a proud supporter of the Thor 3: No Seriously Dude What Was The Plot? beating Spider-Boy: The Third Attempt at the boxoffice. Battle of the threes! The Two Towels!
Seriously, as a semi-Avengers movie it should basically beat the crap out RDJ: That Movie Where Spider-Man Also Plays A Part.
Also, I don't actually care. But really, Avengers movie make bank above a billion, whereas Spidey will be squashed out at a less than a billion. I would not be terribly surprised if this 'impossible event' happened, considering it literally happened last year with Captain 3 already.
Seriously, as a semi-Avengers movie it should basically beat the crap out RDJ: That Movie Where Spider-Man Also Plays A Part.
Also, I don't actually care. But really, Avengers movie make bank above a billion, whereas Spidey will be squashed out at a less than a billion. I would not be terribly surprised if this 'impossible event' happened, considering it literally happened last year with Captain 3 already.
I believe it can do it even with JL around the corner. Imagine if Marvel puts out another extremely well received trailer and the reviews are top notch. They nail the marketing this time around. It could snowball into some big numbers. Thor: The Dark World did nearly 650M on mediocre reviews and uninteresting trailers.
Mr. Pointy
Member
Spiderman 6: Homecoming
OW: $105
DOM: $300
WW: $800
OW: $105
DOM: $300
WW: $800
Principate
Saint Titanfall
I mean Suicide Squad made 700 million on downright awful reviews. Guess who wins tgat contest? No-one .
twinturbo2
butthurt Heat fan
Paramount should be throwing money at Tom Cruise to make a sequel to Days of Thunder. It would work better than a Top Gun sequel.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Top Gun 2 could work if Cruise takes the supporting role of the grizzled veteran taking the hot shot rookie under his wing.'
...But if The Mummy is any indication, Cruise thinks he can still play roles meant for actors in their 20s so once again Maverick is gonna be front and center and its gonna get really weird when his love interest is a women almost a third his age...
I bet my avatar that JL makes 200 million more than SM: H. Double or nothing my tag that JL makes 400 million more than Thor 3.
Discotheque
Banned
I wish it kept its original title "Hillbilly Heist", but that might offend potential audience members too.
God damn does it look like a fun time though, and revitalized my interest in Craig. Dudes been phoning Bond in for a little while now making you forget just how much screen presence he has when he's bothered.