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New study projects drop in Millenial voter turnout in 2018

U

uncelestial

Member
http://data.voterparticipation.org/...lectorate-2012-2016-predicting-2018-drop-off/

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Click to expand...

• 2018 Population Estimate: CPS counts of the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) were pulled from
historic data. Data was divided by state, and then into demographic subgroups of Latino, nonLatino
Rising American Electorate (RAE), and non-RAE, as those populations are growing at
different rates. A rolling average was calculated, such that each month’s data was represented
by an average of that month and the 11 preceding months. This was done to smooth out
random fluctuations in the data that were the result of sampling error. From these rolling
averages, the monthly increase in population was estimated and multiplied by 24 to give an
estimate of the increase in population between November 2016 and November 2018. Data
was then summed by state and by demographic subgroup to produce total national estimates.

• Drop-off: Refers to the loss of voters from 2016 to 2018. The average of turnout in 2006, 2010,
and 2014 was applied to 2018 population estimates to calculate 2018 turnout. Percentage
drop-off is the difference between 2016 and 2018 turnout as a percentage of 2016 turnout.
The number drop-off is that percentage of the 2016 electorate.
Click to expand...

• The Rising American Electorate (RAE) – unmarried women, Millennials
(ages 18-34)*, African Americans, Latinos, and all other people of color
(as defined by the Census) – now accounts for more than half of the
voting eligible population in this country (59.2%).

• The Vote Eligible Population (VEP) refers to eligible citizens over the age
of 18.

• While RAE turnout has increased in recent elections, they still do not
register to vote or turn out in proportion to their share of the population.
Click to expand...

• Using a predictive methodology for population growth and likely turnout patterns, it is
projected that the RAE will comprise 61.6% of those who will vote in November 2018. This
means that one in three voters who turned out in 2016 will NOT turn out in 2018 (35.1% of
those who voted in 2016, or 25.4 million RAE voters, will stay home).

• The predicted drop-off among non-RAE voters is only 22.1% or 14.4 million voters. In fact, of
the nearly 40 million Americans predicted to drop-off from 2016, two-thirds will come from the
RAE (remember, the RAE represents 59.2% of the vote eligible population).

• Turnout is predicted to drop the most among Millennial voters and unmarried women. In fact,
this is true in patterns seen between 2008 and 2014. Drop-off among Millennials is predicted to
be 54.1% (or 17.2 million voters) and 33.4% among unmarried women (or 11.1 million voters).

• Regionally, the biggest drop-off of RAE voters is predicted to take place in the Mid-Atlantic
states (NY, PA, and NJ – Census defined region). Here, 39.6% of RAE voters are expected to
drop-off in 2018.

• Among target states, Virginia, North Carolina, and Nevada are expected to see the biggest
drop-off rates among RAE voters. 48.7% (or roughly 1,106,000 voters) of RAE voters are
predicted to drop off in Virginia in 2018, while 44.2% (or roughly 309,000 voters) and 43.4% (or
roughly 1,135,000 million voters) of RAE voters will drop off in Nevada and North Carolina,
respectively.
Click to expand...

Some TL;DR from Mic.com's coverage:

The researchers said there are an array of reasons why members of the RAE don’t vote at the same rates as their older, white or married counterparts.

Among them: RAE voters may have less information about the candidates or the voting process itself. They may feel less engaged in state or local elections than national ones. Particularly in the case of millennials, they tend to move more often, requiring them to re-register to vote each time they do.

Finally, the study’s creators said, campaign-season messaging may not be targeted at the concerns of RAE voters because of their age or family status.

All this can contribute to a sense of discouragement about traditional civic engagement, and members of the RAE cohort may opt for alternatives, such as volunteerism or expressing their views via social media.

...

Within the RAE, “Drop-off among millennials is predicted to be 54.1%, or 17.2 million voters, and 33.4% among unmarried women, or 11.1 million voters,” the study projected.

The highest drop-off region for these voters is predicted to be the Mid-Atlantic, which includes New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

As to other high states, Virginia and North Carolina are expected to see high drop-off numbers of more than 1 million voters apiece.
Click to expand...
 
B

Blader

Member
All this can contribute to a sense of discouragement about traditional civic engagement, and members of the RAE cohort may opt for alternatives, such as volunteerism or expressing their views via social media.
Click to expand...

The future is fucked.
 
D

double jump

you haven't lived until a random little kid ask you "how do you make love".
Dear God no.
How do we fix this now ? Can't nobody afford to sit on their ass in the next few elections.
 
B

benicillin

Banned
Voting has to be easier.

Voter registration has to be way easier - think of all the college students who are fucked on voter reg every year because of going to school, where they are eligible to vote, etc.

Democrats are also responsible to do their part and find a message that gets millennials voting.
 
D

Dark Cloud

Member
benicillin said:
Voting has to be easier.

Voter registration has to be way easier - think of all the college students who are fucked on voter reg every year because of going to school, where they are eligible to vote, etc.

Democrats are also responsible to do their part and find a message that gets millennials voting.
Click to expand...

Just do the voting on Twitter so everyone can vote. 😛
 
B

Biske

Member
Young people are stupid.


I mean all people are stupid, but there is a reason old people vote and decide the fate of everybody.
 
F

Fuchsdh

Member
The great thing about "I'm not feeling enthusiastic about voting" is it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. No one is targeting millennials for outreach because they don't show up reliably ever, let alone midterms, and hence policy isn't targeted at their interests, and then they continue to huff and complain about it and use that to justify not voting.

Informed voting is a responsibility, not something you do if it's not too much bother.
 
X

xxracerxx

Don't worry, I'll vouch for them.
benicillin said:
Voting has to be easier.

Voter registration has to be way easier - think of all the college students who are fucked on voter reg every year because of going to school, where they are eligible to vote, etc.

Democrats are also responsible to do their part and find a message that gets millennials voting.
Click to expand...

Oregon has mail-in ballots, not too mention if you go to the DMV you are auto enrolled to vote.
 
H

HStallion

Now what's the next step in your master plan?
Well... my generation fucking sucks if that's the case. I'll be out their voting.
 
K

kris.

Banned
Fuck my generation. I'm voting. I'm gonna urge as many of my friends as I can, too. I know they won't listen and they won't vote, but ya gotta try. What else is there to do?
 
H

Hierophant

Banned
When you don't have a convincing vision or message other than "continue down the same path", honestly you shouldn't expect much

Don't blame young people for not wanting to buy in this time
 
B

benicillin

Banned
kris. said:
Fuck my generation. I'm voting. I'm gonna urge as many of my friends as I can, too. I know they won't listen and they won't vote, but ya gotta try. What else is there to do?
Click to expand...

You could complain about millennials on the internet while the Democrats continue to chase the votes they lost in the rust belt once people figured out it was okay to be racist again.
 
H

HStallion

Now what's the next step in your master plan?
Hierophant said:
When you don't have a convincing vision or message other than "continue down the same path", honestly you shouldn't expect much

Don't blame young people for not wanting to buy in this time
Click to expand...

Shit you would think fear would be enough in this case.
 
F

Frozenprince

Banned
Yep, people think fucking tweeting and posting messages on facebook is just the same as voting.

Because people are fucking idiots.

Enjoy 6+ more years of Republicans.
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
Hierophant said:
When you don't have a convincing vision or message other than "continue down the same path", honestly you shouldn't expect much

Don't blame young people for not wanting to buy in this time
Click to expand...

Horseshit...

Buy in this time?

How about buy in anytime?

Young people constantly under show up at the ballot box.

Literally getting rid of what the US currently has should be enough for pitty sakes.
 
D

DarkKyo

Member
There's nothing to inspire people, why vote?

I mean, I vote in every election. I'm just speaking to the depressive atmosphere and lack of genuine, passionate candidates.
 
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