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Media Create Sales: Week 28, 2017 (Jul 10 - Jul 16)

I don't know why you would use that methodology to come to that conclusion...
Because that is the only reasonable conclusion. PS4 has many more 85+ games on Metacritic at this point in its life than any other console. That's a simple statement of fact, which you can verify independently if you wish.

You may argue that Metacritic is a bad metric, or allow it but attempt to carve your own personal exemptions to shape its results a different way. (Or you could widen past consoles, where both iOS and PC's results are incredibly higher, as I pointed out.) But without altering the question, what I concluded was straightforward, driven directly by clear data.

...because apart from the fact thats not the argument Nirolak was making....
I didn't address Nirolak's larger argument at all. I was responding only to the language he used to describe the number of 85+ games on PS4. His expressed surprise at it being so low is unwarranted, given that it's actually the highest for any console they've tracked, by a very wide margin. That was my sole point.

...a not inconsequential number of those titles are 'remaster' games that are still contemporary enough to not suffer any form of review decay to a reviewer that played the original maybe a year or two before the remaster.
As stated above, if you'd like to examine only a subset of games, excluding whatever categories you think will serve your query, that's a different discussion.

But I will say that I'm not confident about your argument here. You assert that, the sooner a remaster comes out after an original, the higher it's going to score. This is possible, of course, but I don't know that it's definitively established. The contrary assertion that a classic's return after a long absence leads to higher scores seems just as plausible. What info do you think allows us to decide between these just-so stories?
 

xequalsy

Member
Partner lol. SE was all set and happy to have Nintendo holding nothing but its **** in hand before they saw DQ couldn't sell on the PS4 alone.

I mean ok? What's that got to do with the perceived lack of marketing for the 3DS version though?

Nintendo is a company, they're not going to refuse to market a game because of such a petty reason.
 

Vena

Member
Easy there on the double negatives buddy.

Edit: Maybe Nintendo doesn't feel any need to market DQ on the 3ds. They could go all out on the marketing for the Switch version whenever it's released.

Nonsense. They market major titles at all times, there is no real "maybe" here and this is uncharacteristic behavior for a major release.

What's more likely: that a company that loves to buy marketing deals paid for a marketing deal, or that a company that always markets their major releases felt it didn't need to market a major release?

One of these is a logical conclusion based on clear precedent that goes from mundane to insidious this gen, and the other is based on "feelings".

We're just off the heels of one such maneuver with Nier, SE, Sony and the PC release. This doesn't really need extensive sleuthing to piece together from common items. And Sony has every incentive to buy as much mindshare of their platform as they can, especially as this year is going to wrap up with a fairly weak lineup until some undisclosed time in 2018.
 

noshten

Member
I mean that is still 20% of the userbase, and considering that console gaming is supposed to be 'dead', that's quite a showing.

PS4 is doing very well, it's just overshadowed by portable and mobile gaming in Japan.
Still DQXI doing 1 million launch on the PS4 is well beyond the a lot of predictions we had at the beginning of the year are going to be way off for both versions for the full 2017.
If 3DS does open at 1 million I can't really see it doing more than 1.5 million by the end of the year. The 3DS decline effecting Pokemon YK and MH wasn't because of fatigue it just seems just general disinterest towards the 3DS as a platform. Now that the replacement is available that decline seems even more pronounced for DQXI.


Below is what we had as prediction for DQXI for the Annual Prediction League:

There were 3 people that predicted sub 2 million for DQXI on 3DS for 2017
While 7 people who predicted that PS4 version would be over 1 million with the highest prediction being 1.2 mil which is something it seems DQ will do within a month if YSO prediction is correct.

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 3.120.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 864.000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 1.500.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 450.000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 3.400.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 1.100.000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 3,100,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 750,000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.876.543
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 789.012

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.400.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 1.200.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest XI - 400.000 (only if it releases simultaneously with 3DS/PS4)

ßig;229969897 said:
[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2,040,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 960,000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 4,000,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 600,000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 3,200,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 1,150,000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2,842,218
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 1,021,782

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2,500,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 800,000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 1,750,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 775,000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2,000,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 600,000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.789.012
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 801.234

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.910.000
[PS4+NSW] Dragon Quest XI - 990.000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.550.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 900.000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.350.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 1.100.000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2,604,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 506,000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.499.999
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 899.999

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2500000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 700000
[NSW] Dragon Quest XI - 800000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.500.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 600.000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 3.000.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 1.000.000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2.240.000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 806.000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2250k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 800k

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 3,000,000
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 700,000

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2,137,859
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 864,689

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 1500k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 800k
[NSW] Dragon Quest XI - 1000k

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2836k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 784k

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2600k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 850k

[3DS] Dragon Quest XI - 2600k
[PS4] Dragon Quest XI - 450k
 

gtj1092

Member
Nonsense. They market major titles at all times, there is no real "maybe" here and this is uncharacteristic behavior for a major release.

What's more likely: that a company that loves to buy marketing deals paid for a marketing deal, or that a company that always markets their major releases felt it didn't need to market a major release?

One of these is a logical conclusion based on clear precedent that goes from mundane to insidious this gen, and the other is based on "feelings".

We're just off the heels of one such maneuver with Nier, SE, Sony and the PC release. This doesn't really need extensive sleuthing to piece together from common items. And Sony has every incentive to buy as much mindshare of their platform as they can, especially as this year is going to wrap up with a fairly weak lineup until some undisclosed time in 2018.

How do explain the bundles for 3ds then. Nintendo and square have to be working together on the release as well. Never have I seen a company with a marketing deal let another console have an official bundle. Just think Nintendo is focused on Splatoon and selling switches.
 
The initial discussion was about how much Nintendo ships every month which is based on what reaches the customers. However the amount of units produced per months is not equal to the units available to customers as the latter depends on the allocation each region gets with different shipping times that necessarily distort the statistics.
Past production startup, this is rarely true. This would only be the case if units assembled in a week all went to a single region, and different weeks (or months) went to different regions. But instead units are allocated continually; some stock is shipped every week to every region. (At least in the cases I know, though these are admittedly other forms of electronics and not consoles. I can't see why it would be fundamentally different, though.)

To go back to the initial discussion, hardware shipment to coincidence the launch of Splatoon 2 globally doesn't require e.g. cutting shipment to Japan now; on the contrary Japan could see (to keep this simple) all hardware produced half a week ago, US all from 3 weeks ago, Europe all from a month ago etc. and all could coincidence the same release time of today. In turn that would make the statistics seem like Nintendo vastly increased production for that month where in reality only the allocation changed.
I'm afraid I don't follow how this contradicts what I've said. Let me restate my train of thought, in hopes of allowing clarity.

In a month, Nintendo ships [x] number of consoles. By manipulating shipments they can cause spikes in supply. But these will necessarily correspond to troughs (of equivalent area) elsewhere. I assume:

1. The [x] number matches the yearly forecast they've given divided by 12.
2. They will want to generate a high and sustained spike of supply in Nov/Dec.
3. This means supply in earlier months is heavily constrained preparing for that.
4. Therefore, any other supply spikes they want to generate--like for Splatoon 2 launch--must be either low, quick, or both.

What part(s) of this do you disagree with?
 

sense

Member
Nonsense. They market major titles at all times, there is no real "maybe" here and this is uncharacteristic behavior for a major release.

What's more likely: that a company that loves to buy marketing deals paid for a marketing deal, or that a company that always markets their major releases felt it didn't need to market a major release?

One of these is a logical conclusion based on clear precedent that goes from mundane to insidious this gen, and the other is based on "feelings".

We're just off the heels of one such maneuver with Nier, SE, Sony and the PC release. This doesn't really need extensive sleuthing to piece together from common items. And Sony has every incentive to buy as much mindshare of their platform as they can, especially as this year is going to wrap up with a fairly weak lineup until some undisclosed time in 2018.
Sony deals don't involve the competition being able to show off their version like in a direct or release custom edition hardware bundle for the game. Square itself has shown off that version alongside PS4 version almost every single time. It is more likely Nintendo feels dq 11 3ds doesn't need major marketing especially if they set aisle marketing dollars for the switch and the switch version and they are busy promoting splatoon 2.

Edit: damn gtj1092 beat me to the exact same point lol
 

Vena

Member
How do explain the bundles for 3ds then. Nintendo and square have to be working together on the release as well. Never have I seen a company with a marketing deal let another console have an official bundle. Just think Nintendo is focused on Splatoon and selling switches.

Marketing deals can come in many forms. In this case, a deal to control the marketing (ie. commercial/media exposure).

Why else would Nintendo *not* advertise their product and 2DSXL with said product?

Sony deals don't involve the competition being able to show off their version like in a direct or release custom edition hardware bundle for the game. Square itself has shown off that version alongside PS4 version almost every single time. It is more likely Nintendo feels dq 11 3ds doesn't need major marketing especially if they set aisle marketing dollars for the switch and the switch version and they are busy promoting splatoon 2.

There is no logic in believing a company will not market their major product. Especially for a major product that is coming with a new revision of their own product that they are still trying to sell and for which they are still making games.

Rather than trying to bend over backwards to explain a lack of marketing, why not just go for Occam's Razor when we know Sony loves marketing deals in all shapes and sizes?
 

bigjig

Member
Marketing deals can come in many forms. In this case, a deal to control the marketing (ie. commercial/media exposure).

Why else would Nintendo *not* advertise their product and 2DSXL with said product?



There is no logic in believing a company will not market their major product. Especially for a major product that is coming with a new revision of their own product that they are still trying to sell and for which they are still making games.

Rather than trying to bend over backwards to explain a lack of marketing, why not just go for Occam's Razor when we know Sony loves marketing deals in all shapes and sizes?

Because like everyone Nintendo has a limited marketing budget and would rather allocate those resources to marketing the Switch/Splatoon 2. The 3DS is a dying platform. They probably decided that the marketing cost wouldn't have justified the return.

You got a source for Sony blocking marketing of the PC version of Nier Automata btw?
 

LordRaptor

Member
I didn't address Nirolak's larger argument at all. I was responding only to the language he used to describe the number of 85+ games on PS4. His expressed surprise at it being so low is unwarranted, given that it's actually the highest for any console they've tracked, by a very wide margin. That was my sole point.

I suspect his surprise is a result of the overall decline in full price retail titles.
Most people understand that that has happened, but actually looking at the numbers in black and white such as on a metacritic list brings that contraction into stark relief.

As stated above, if you'd like to examine only a subset of games, excluding whatever categories you think will serve your query, that's a different discussion.

But I will say that I'm not confident about your argument here. You assert that, the sooner a remaster comes out after an original, the higher it's going to score. This is possible, of course, but I don't know that it's definitively established. The contrary assertion that a classic's return after a long absence leads to higher scores seems just as plausible. What info do you think allows us to decide between these just-so stories?

Reviews are subjective opinion pieces, beyond the shallowest surface "does it run adequately?" level. Someone who played GTAV last year and enjoyed it enough to score it highly would still enjoy it enough to score it highly on a different piece of hardware this year and there is an element of decay because games as a whole are iterative and refine themselves.

But "Thing I reviewed well last year is still good this year" does not mean "I will rebuy thing I bought last year", so it is hugely disingenous to reframe "There are a lot of high scored titles on a platform" as
it's getting great games at a faster rate than any previous platform.
when many of those titles are only being rereleased (and therefore rereviewed) due to a lack of any backwards compatibility.
If anything its recycling great games, not getting great games.
 

sense

Member
Marketing deals can come in many forms. In this case, a deal to control the marketing (ie. commercial/media exposure).

Why else would Nintendo *not* advertise their product and 2DSXL with said product?



There is no logic in believing a company will not market their major product. Especially for a major product that is coming with a new revision of their own product that they are still trying to sell and for which they are still making games.

Rather than trying to bend over backwards to explain a lack of marketing, why not just go for Occam's Razor when we know Sony loves marketing deals in all shapes and sizes?
Why can't you stop trying too hard and accept maybe Sony is just more aggressive in promoting their version because it is a huge ip that can move consoles for them and there is really no mythical marketing "deal" behind it. Just because they are notorious for it this gen doesn't mean everything can be explained away as "Sony has a marketing deal". Nintendo's marketing budget tied up behind their new console and splatoon 2 is very plausible and also makes sense if they plan to push the switch version later down the line. I mean the majority in these threads assumed dq11 on 3ds would smoke the PS4 version sales for the longest time so maybe Nintendo thought along similar lines and decided that version didn't need as much push behind it.

You say the deal probably involves Sony control commercial/media exposure? What about all these ads showing off both version?

http://gematsu.com/2017/07/dragon-quest-xi-tv-spots-feature-excited-japanese-celebrities
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
"Only 90"? "Surprisingly exclusive"? The console with the highest number of 85+ games is the Xbox 360, with 184. Over 8% of these were added during 2013, so I'd argue it was relevant until then. So we're talking about 8 years of releases to hit 180 such titles (or if you'd prefer, 7 years to hit 164). PS4 is at 90 titles in 3.5 years, so that strongly suggests it's getting great games at a faster rate than any previous platform.
...I'm focusing on the retail titles that are new to this generation because that's the category that's relevant for Dragon Quest XI.

I understand that the PS4 has 80 zillion indie titles and remasters, believe me, it's a key differentiator to the make-up of this generation, but that's not the product category Dragon Quest XI is in.
 

Rolf NB

Member
Marketing deals can come in many forms. In this case, a deal to control the marketing (ie. commercial/media exposure).

Why else would Nintendo *not* advertise their product and 2DSXL with said product?



There is no logic in believing a company will not market their major product. Especially for a major product that is coming with a new revision of their own product that they are still trying to sell and for which they are still making games.

Rather than trying to bend over backwards to explain a lack of marketing, why not just go for Occam's Razor when we know Sony loves marketing deals in all shapes and sizes?
So basically if 3DS version sales fall short of the lofty expectations, Sony will be blamed. Brilliant.
 
So basically if 3DS version sales fall short of the lofty expectations, Sony will be blamed. Brilliant.

The truth is that someone doesn't accept DQ11 is not a 3DS exclusive so in the last months the usual topic was "DQ11 is doomed, it won't sell well"

and yes, Sony pushed the game a lot more than Nintendo for what I've seen as for now, maybe it's just because they wanna push the Switch version in 201x
 

MoonFrog

Member
I mean, DQXI as a 3DS exclusive, particularly if it'd come out a couple years ago, would outperform DQXI PS4.

As it is, "depressed" DQXI sales estimates are putting it in line with PS4 at launch.

3DS has a lot more room to move from there, and, however bad the legs really are, it is still probably going to have better legs than PS4 version.

So I'd say odds still are 3DS/PS4 at the end of the day and even if that doesn't happen, it'll be PS4 just edging out 3DS in all likelihood.

It'll very much be a case, either way, where SE was right to have bailed on PS4 exclusivity.

Now why would 3DS numbers be depressed?

SE has gone out of their way to combat the image that PS4>3DS with the special features they equipped the 3DS version with, but there still, perhaps, will be an "I'll pass/wait until I can play pretty version effect" as discussed upthread.

I also doubt that the two games are wholly independent, although they are probably independent to some degree. So PS4 sales are going to depress 3DS sales. I think the previous paragraph points to it not always being PS4>3DS in consumers' who have both minds, but I do also think that if a consumer has a PS4, they're probably less biased in favor of portability and care more about pretty visuals, so it'll lead PS4>3DS in cases of "I have both," I think.

But let's see if we do have depressed 3DS sales of the game, or rather, how severely depressed they are because I think the situation is that they'll be down from a traditional, 3DS only release.

Edit: Also worth puzzling about perhaps is that PS4/3DS is a proportionately larger subset of PS4 owners than it is of 3DS owners...
 
I wonder if they are gonna localize DQ11 3DS. I assume selling a million units is a good number to make the investment worth it but it almost seems like if the 3DS versiom isn't localized they may have been beeter off just making a different product. Then again DQ11 3DS will probably clear 1.5m so maybe not. The whole business model is weird.
 

MoonFrog

Member
I wonder if they are gonna localize DQ11 3DS. I assume selling a million units is a good number to make the investment worth it but it almost seems like if the 3DS versiom isn't localized they may have been beeter off just making a different product. Then again DQ11 3DS will probably clear 1.5m so maybe not. The whole business model is weird.
It'd be much more eloquent with just Switch/PS4, PS4 prettier Switch version.

But then we'd lose 2D DQXI.
 

Eolz

Member
3DS DQXI coming to the west would depend on how long they take to localize it tbh. I'd easily see Nintendo distribute bother versions if it's next year, since they're still keeping the 3DS alive in this time period.
 

KtSlime

Member
The advertising has been very different between the two versions. Sony has had their own marketing campaign starting Takayuki Yamada, who is the most closely associated actor with Dragon Quest, which started about 6 weeks ago. Square Enix started their advertising last week, including actors such as Tubasa Honda who does the Hoshi no DQ advertisements, Nakamura Kankuro, a kabuki actor, Tatsuya Fujiwara, and comedy group Okazu Club. Nintendo has not made any advertisements.

3DS version will likely sell the most, but public mindshare is currently that DQ is coming out with awesome eye melting graphics that make grown men throw tantrums in stores to get a copy for PS4.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0jg422FM6M
 

sense

Member
I think everyone knew that PS4 ver would open higher but 3ds one to have higher fw sales due to 3ds' install base.
Until preorders opened and PS4 version started tracking higher, almost everyone in this thread was convinced that even if the 3ds is in its last legs, it will smoke the PS4 version sales. If you think people expected PS4 version to be neck and neck with 3ds version or even sell more fw or ltd then you really haven't been paying attention. Last year was full of posts asking what else does PS4 have now that ffxv is out and dq is a non factor because 3ds version will severely undercut PS4 version sales.
 
What's the last time they've been way off? Monster Hunter Stories comes in mind and that was way back. They are close with almost everything.

That's 8 months before and an exception like I said before, they can't be right with everything.

Mario Maker 3DS beat everyone's expectations in here too.

Before we start searching predictions one by one, when they are off is when preorders don't reflect the real situation before of last moment building momentum. Arms, NieR, Nioh and are in there.

But for every wrong prediction they make I can find you 10 more they were spot on and for far more important titles.

The issue isn't that YSO predictions are or aren't generally accurate - they are - it's that they're still predictions, so posters in here should not speak in the past tense when discussing sales just based off YSO predictions. I didn't look, but, yes, Monster Hunter Stories, Mario Maker 3DS and ARMS are three tentpole releases in less than a year that they were wrong about. We can only speak in the past tense regarding a game's performance when Media Create or Enterbrain reports come out, not when we get their predictions. You're not guilty of it yourself, but we do see posters falling in that trap almost every week.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
The issue isn't that YSO predictions are or aren't generally accurate - they are - it's that they're still predictions, so posters in here should not speak in the past tense when discussing sales just based off YSO predictions. I didn't look, but, yes, Monster Hunter Stories, Mario Maker 3DS and ARMS are three tentpole releases in less than a year that they were wrong about. We can only speak in the past tense regarding a game's performance when Media Create or Enterbrain reports come out, not when we get their predictions. You're not guilty of it yourself, but we do see posters falling in that trap almost every week.

people have been speaking in past tense?

like
"Splatoon has sold 850k this week, so therefore......"
?
 

hiska-kun

Member
Tsutaya's Ranking Week 29 2017

01./00. [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo)
02./00. [3DS] Layton's Mystery Journey: Katrielle and The Millionaire's Conspiracy <ADV> (Level 5)

03./01. [PS4] Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age <RPG> (Square Enix)
04./02. [3DS] Hey! Pikmin <ACT> (Nintendo)
05./00. [3DS] Sumikko Gurashi: Koko, Dokonan Desu? <ETC> (Nippon Columbia)
06./05. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo)
07./03. [3DS] Ever Oasis <RPG> (Nintendo)
08./04. [PS4] Gundam Versus <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
09./00. [PS4] Under Night In-Birth Exe:Latest <FTG> (Arc System Works)
10./07. [NSW] ARMS <ACT> (Nintendo)
11./10. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
12./00. [NSW] Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star <ACT> (Marvelous)
13./12. [3DS] Monster Hunter Double Cross <ACT> (Capcom)
14./13. [PS4] NieR: Automata <RPG> (Square Enix)
15./14. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops III - Game of the Year Edition <ACT> (Sony Interactive)
16./16. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
17./06. [PS4] Gundam Versus (Premium G Sound Edition) <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games)
18./23. [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition <ADV> (Sony Computer Entertainment)
19./20. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo)
20./00. [PS4] Cars 3: Driven to Win <RCE> (Warner Entertainment Japan)
 

KtSlime

Member
Does Japan have game rental stores or something similar?

No, the closest thing we have are Net Cafe that allow you to play the games there for an hourly fee.

Commercially renting games/other media is actually not allowed in Japan, I believe.

All media, DVD, CD, Blu-Ray, manga, books, are available for rental, including games, however, for a store to rent a video game they need the express consent of the publisher to do so, and most of the time the publisher says no, so it is not worth it for even big media rental companies such as Tsutaya to even try.
 
people have been speaking in past tense?

like
"Splatoon has sold 850k this week, so therefore......"
?

Usually more like "[X] did better than I thought", "[Y] sold way worse than I expected", etc., even though "X" and "Y" didn't do or sell anything that we would know about until 10 days later. Some people throw their own predictions out the window once they see YSO numbers.

3rd Parties on Switch dead.

The twist is that Japanese publishers were waiting to see the performance of Cars 3: Driven to Win before committing to the Switch. Japanese gamers sent a clear message by choosing to play it on PS4.
 

Terrell

Member
Tsutaya's Ranking Week 29 2017

01./00. [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo)

To the surprise of no one. The exact number sold nationwide is going to be an interesting study, both in launch week and its overall numbers further into Switch's lifespan, as well as a study in how poorly we judge the viability of certain IPs over others.
 

ggx2ac

Member
A day old, but.

DFUYVAsVYAAnSnO.jpg

https://twitter.com/cvxfreak/status/888643266123452416
 
Usually more like "[X] did better than I thought", "[Y] sold way worse than I expected", etc., even though "X" and "Y" didn't do or sell anything that we would know about until 10 days later. Some people throw their own predictions out the window once they see YSO numbers.



The twist is that Japanese publishers were waiting to see the performance of Cars 3: Driven to Win before committing to the Switch. Japanese gamers sent a clear message by choosing to play it on PS4.

Fun fact: The Japanese Switch version of Cars 3 shipped completely broken. The game has a bug that just crashes the game on the title screen.

It's already been patched, but yeah. All those physical copies out there are unplayable without the patch installed.

C0BhGmX.png
 
I suspect his surprise is a result of the overall decline in full price retail titles.
It appears that's what "surprisingly exclusive" refers to, yes. But "only 90" definitely includes everything with an 85+ score, regardless of type.

Reviews are subjective opinion pieces, beyond the shallowest surface "does it run adequately?" level. Someone who played GTAV last year and enjoyed it enough to score it highly would still enjoy it enough to score it highly on a different piece of hardware this year and there is an element of decay because games as a whole are iterative and refine themselves.
This is all very possible, and I believe it could be true. That doesn't mean it actually is. Do you have info indicating so, or just plausibility? (Note that I don't think the latter answer is fatal to your argument, I'm just interested if you have suggestive data.)

But "Thing I reviewed well last year is still good this year" does not mean "I will rebuy thing I bought last year", so it is hugely disingenous to reframe "There are a lot of high scored titles on a platform" as "getting great games at a faster rate than any previous platform"...
It's the exact opposite of disingenuous, it's a simple fact. No one was talking about reviewing habits, or spending habits. As I've already explained, the statement is in a context where Metacritic is agreed as a usable metric, and where we're examining the entire release slate of console platforms. I've been clear that if you carve a subset out of Metacritic to compare, or if you want to wholly dismiss Metacritic as valid, my conclusion may not stand (see below). But in the original context it's the only possible conclusion.

...I'm focusing on the retail titles that are new to this generation because that's the category that's relevant for Dragon Quest XI.

I understand that the PS4 has 80 zillion indie titles and remasters, believe me, it's a key differentiator to the make-up of this generation, but that's not the product category Dragon Quest XI is in.
I know that you intended to focus on this comparison, and as I've previously said I mentioned nothing germane to this larger point. What I was responding to was your statement that there were "only 90" games with 85+ Metacritic scores. That isn't a subset, but the whole release slate. Nevertheless, the qualifier "only" seems to indicate a belief that 90 is smaller than expected. As I showed, it's much larger than expected.

That was in a wide context, but now let me go ahead and tailor it for the exact comparison you were making. If we check Metacritic only for console retail titles--not DLC or indies--and we also remove all remasters/remakes, how does the comparison stand? For the first 45 months of its life, Xbox 360 then has 46 titles rated 85+. The PS4 has 40.

So in fact, even in the comparison you propose, there's nothing very unusual or surprisingly low about PS4's amount of high-rated games. The restriction means it's no longer far and away the biggest list, or indeed first at all. But it's still in the top three, not far behind second place*. So your characterization really isn't justified even under the strict interpretation of your comparison.


*With these parameters, PS3 is now the high outlier, with 63 titles.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
The issue isn't that YSO predictions are or aren't generally accurate - they are - it's that they're still predictions, so posters in here should not speak in the past tense when discussing sales just based off YSO predictions. I didn't look, but, yes, Monster Hunter Stories, Mario Maker 3DS and ARMS are three tentpole releases in less than a year that they were wrong about. We can only speak in the past tense regarding a game's performance when Media Create or Enterbrain reports come out, not when we get their predictions. You're not guilty of it yourself, but we do see posters falling in that trap almost every week.

If someone gets YSO, comgnet, amazon or shipments from retailers as the barrier of success or failure of a game it's his problem. YSO predictions are exactly what they say, predictions.
 
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