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Media Create Sales: Week 28, 2017 (Jul 10 - Jul 16)

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
can you guys chill?

dang, you know a big game is coming when people start acting like children.

This,

we know everyone wants to see the Splatoon 2 and DQXI numbers, no need to go crazy with conspiracy theories lol. Marketing isnt the reason why the 3DS version isnt selling as much as some of use expected last year...everyone knows the game is out this week on PS4/3DS.
 

dracula_x

Member
Where did the idea of the 3DS version not being marketed come from? Honest question. I dont live in Japan, so i cant say much about it, but from what i've seen on Youtube etc., it doesnt seem to be any shortcoming of the 3DS version. Feels to me that both versions have been shown about the same.

it started from there I think:

Weak performance on 3ds DQXI version kind of falls on Nintendo imo. SE is pushing both the PS4 version and 3ds version in their own ads.

Sony has done a lot to promote the game, meanwhile Nintendo is basically doing nothing on the social side.

Just look at the Playstation channel vs the Nintendo one in the past 2 months. 5 videos vs 1. Furthermore, Sony's got high quality promotions too such as:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuPHlZ7JUd8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5XR1ZtNVE0

... while Nintendo's is a direct which only reaches the hardcore

Nintendo looks like a bad partner in comparison. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

---

What are you on about? Who has proposed this idea in this thread? And who is giving credit to them?

.

I'm more thinking that there's a marketing deal on DQXI. Nintendo doesn't usually not advertise major releases.

Nonsense. They market major titles at all times, there is no real "maybe" here and this is uncharacteristic behavior for a major release.

What's more likely: that a company that loves to buy marketing deals paid for a marketing deal, or that a company that always markets their major releases felt it didn't need to market a major release?

One of these is a logical conclusion based on clear precedent that goes from mundane to insidious this gen, and the other is based on "feelings".

We're just off the heels of one such maneuver with Nier, SE, Sony and the PC release. This doesn't really need extensive sleuthing to piece together from common items. And Sony has every incentive to buy as much mindshare of their platform as they can, especially as this year is going to wrap up with a fairly weak lineup until some undisclosed time in 2018.
 

Vena

Member
I'm not sure if many people give credit for it (sorry if i missed some post), but Vena proposed the idea that Sony had a marketing deal for Dragon Quest 11.

Indeed. And it turns out I was wrong as I had been under the impression that there were no 3DS commercials (trying to rationalize said behavior, which turned out to be a false basis) which in and of itself was based on now equally incorrect statements from others that the 3DS version was not being marketed and that "Nintendo were bad partners".

I don't mind admitting to being wrong. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Though I do enjoy being quoted out of context as per above.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
it started from there I think:
I see. Thanks for the info.


Indeed. And it turns out I was wrong as I had been under the impression that there were no 3DS commercials which in and of itself was based on now equally incorrect statements from others that the 3DS version was being marketed and that "Nintendo were bad partners".

I don't mind admitting to being wrong. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
No worries, and not everyone can admit of being wrong, so that takes a certain amount of character to do, so repsect for that :) Nothing wrong with being wrong in these cases regardless though.
 

Kolx

Member
This,

we know everyone wants to see the Splatoon 2 and DQXI numbers, no need to go crazy with conspiracy theories lol. Marketing isnt the reason why the 3DS version isnt selling as much as some of use expected last year...everyone knows the game is out this week on PS4/3DS.
Maybe it's? I'd think Sony pushing more ads would help push more people towards the ps4 which is something fairly obvious? let alone the fact saying "everyone knows the game is out this week on PS4/3DS" is factually wrong especially when it comes to casual. It's not Nintendo job to advertise a SE game. Sony cares more about the ps4 now than Nintendo with the 3ds considering the switch is out which result in Sony pushing ads which help push the ratio to the ps4 side.
 

KtSlime

Member
Indeed. And it turns out I was wrong as I had been under the impression that there were no 3DS commercials (trying to rationalize said behavior, which turned out to be a false basis) which in and of itself was based on now equally incorrect statements from others that the 3DS version was not being marketed and that "Nintendo were bad partners".

I don't mind admitting to being wrong. ¯_(ツ)_/¯

Though I do enjoy being quoted out of context as per above.

The DQ11 commercials just started recently, that is to say the official commercials from SE, the PlayStation commercials started a few weeks earlier. Nintendo, aside from their Direct has not made any commercials, nor do I expect them to. Nintendo does not make commercials for 3rd party games. Perhaps they do in Europe or America, but in Japan, the most they ever do is webpage, a Direct and an introduction in Neko Mario Time.

The PlayStation version is getting much more commercial time, but that is because Sony is advertising it on their own. The SE commercials have been about both. I like the Tubasa Honda commercial where at the nail salon she keeps talking about which version to get, and she is told "buy both".
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Vena was indeed wrong in his assumption, but damn if specific members didn't go quite on the offensive against him, and not just to highlight that he was wrong. You'd almost think he proposed DQXI PS4 will make people I'll due to how wrong it is, or something like that O_O

Yeah, Media Create threads can become embarrassingly childish when specific topics are discussed; we (and I include myself due to past episodes involving me) need to be better than this.
 

Vena

Member
The DQ11 commercials just started recently, that is to say the official commercials from SE, the PlayStation commercials started a few weeks earlier. Nintendo, aside from their Direct has not made any commercials, nor do I expect them to. Nintendo does not make commercials for 3rd party games. Perhaps they do in Europe or America, but in Japan, the most they ever do is webpage, a Direct and an introduction in Neko Mario Time.

The PlayStation version is getting much more commercial time, but that is because Sony is advertising it on their own. The SE commercials have been about both. I like the Tubasa Honda commercial where at the nail salon she keeps talking about which version to get, and she is told "buy both".

Ahh well there we go. I was under the assumption that Nintendo advertised all major releases, as they do in the west.
 

MoonFrog

Member
The estimates just suggest that PS4 version might just do about as well as it could ever do, which is good.

But most of the upwards sales potential for the game is on 3DS. A severely depressed 3DS showing would land, with a greatly successful PS4 version (1.5 million ltd), the game at 2.5-3.0 million ltd, without accounting for Switch. A 3DS that sold "as much as it could in the best circumstances" would push it over 5 million ltd.

But it is not "best circumstances" for 3DS. There being a PS4 version already means that, to some extent. The question remains: how far from best circumstances are we? And this is a question asking not just about the 3DS version: even in the worst case for it, it should be competitive with PS4 version sales and be a justified expansion of the product's target. It is, again, a question absolutely central to the question of how much DQXI itself will sell in Japan: from below 3 million to potentially over 4 million.

So the launch prediction has some spooked. Launch sales are a huge fraction of total sales for this sort of game in particular. Launching at 1 million probably would mean we weren't going to see an absolutely boisterous 3 million 3DS version. It would definitely not rule out a 1.5 million result. I don't think it'd rule out a 2 million result either, but that's obviously a more tenuous possibility in such a case.

My current hope is that 3DS version does reach 2 million at least, overtime, and/or that Switch overperforms for being late to the party. (And that PS4 hits those expected FW sales and gets to 1.5 or so itself). I want the game to do well.
 

Zedark

Member
Are we going to get a report about Splatoon 2 today? It would seem likely with that launch.
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe got a statement from NoA the monday after launch somewhere in the next hour (8:43 or 8:47 PT I believe). We might get one for Splatoon 2 in the same time bracket. You won't get a full breakdown of sales, though: that'll come on Wednesday for Japan.
 

KtSlime

Member
Ahh well there we go. I was under the assumption that Nintendo advertised all major releases, as they do in the west.

I will say that I was a little surprised to not see the game mentioned in last weeks Neko Mario Time, which was mostly dedicated to Splatoon 2, ARMS, and Ever Oasis. It's possible they will have another episode this week, but usually the show is released every other week.

Are we going to get a report about Splatoon 2 today? It would seem likely with that launch.

When do we get Splatoon 2 numbers? Today??

edit: ha!

The numbers will likely leak Wednesday like they normally do. First day sales are impossible.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Vena was indeed wrong in his assumption, but damn if specific members didn't go quite on the offensive against him, and not just to highlight that he was wrong. You'd almost think he proposed DQXI PS4 will make people I'll due to how wrong it is, or something like that O_O

Yeah, Media Create threads can become embarrassingly childish when specific topics are discussed; we (and I include myself due to past episodes involving me) need to be better than this.
To be fair, personally i dont feel that any of the replies were "quite on the offensive" towards him. I mean, one guy said "why can't you stop trying too hard", but is that too much difference than saying "rather than trying to bend over backwards to explain a lack of marketing"?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Ahh well there we go. I was under the assumption that Nintendo advertised all major releases, as they do in the west.

Well, technically I believe things have changed a bit for Switch: we've already seen TVCM for third party games uploaded on Nintendo Japan's YouTube Channel, both with multiple games and with specific titles

Dragon Quest Heroes I-II / FIFA 18 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNST_AtBb8I
Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition / Ultra Street Fighter II: The Final Challengers / Super Bomberman R - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPWOdwQ0EcI
Monster Hunter XX Nintendo Switch Ver. - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_OHuE8w1C8
 
I think that a marketing deal wouldn't work in this case (for SE I mean), since both games are the same but still different, you get it what I mean?

QXLL0XJ.gif
 
I think far too much is being read into "only" here. You don't need to read malicious intent into it or bias against the PS4 catalog.
I don't think there was any bias involved. Nirolak is an excellent poster. He was just mistaken, and because he's usually so well-informed I was surprised by the scale of his error.

But do you assume said allocation always stays the same? I wouldn't.
No, but changes will not take place weekly as there's too much risk of overfitting projections. Shipments do take place weekly, and likely remain comparatively constant for months. Keep in mind that they should be shipping more than are sold each week.

Though you seem to argue they hold back stock for later?
Yes, I believe they need to be stockpiling reserves in preparation for the holidays. But these will not be held at point of assembly for the most part; they should be shipped around the world and held in regional DCs.

In the context of a discussion that a retail title that gets good reviews then as a result also sees good sales - of which there are historically more proofs for than against - we are using metacritic as a gauge of "customer desirability".
No, you've skipped a step. We're treating Metacritic as an accurate metric of how good a game is. It is a second, separate premise that good games sell better than bad ones. I said nothing about that, nor do any of my statements rely upon it. (You'll notice I made no mention of sales myself, and have explicitly said, multiple times, that my point didn't touch on Nirolak's larger argument about them.)

Saying that a platform is "getting great games faster" implies both a qualitative value (that "great" games are desirable) and a time value (that these games are showing up faster than ever)
This is flat wrong. On one hand, the statement implies nothing at all about desirability. On the other, that the games are appearing faster isn't an implication, it's part of the text of the claim. My statement means precisely what it says: that 85+ Metacritic games have come out at a higher rate on PS4 than any other console they track.

Maybe I have to say again that this is only true if we grant specific parameters. Yes, there are other ways to parse the data--some perhaps more helpful in certain contexts--and that can result in different conclusions. I've given one such set of new results myself: that for retail non-remasters, PS4 is no longer fastest by a long shot but is instead third, just behind Xbox 360.

Neither my first set of numbers nor the second are estimates of mine, or the result of elaborate calculation. They are merely counts of Metacritic data, which you can replicate easily if you wish.
 

MoonFrog

Member
I don't think there was any bias involved. Nirolak is an excellent poster. He was just mistaken, and because he's usually so well-informed I was surprised by the scale of his error.

I don't understand going on about it then. As the ant analogy was meant to show, you're being a bit particular about the frame of reference for 90 games in a conversation that wasn't comparing different, similar groupings of such games.

If you don't expect a malicious spin on it, there's no reason to go on about it at all. 90 games/expansions is a small portion of, say, all PS4 games/expansions.

If you have no reason to expect a bias to confront and no reason to take the conversation as comparing similar sets between consoles (which you don't--it is entirely about how well-rated Japanese, new, PS4 retail games sell in the west), I really don't understand why this is even a thing.

This is what I mean when I say you're reading too much into "only." The usage isn't wrong unless it were somehow meant in a context about relative size between similar sets from disparate console libraries. There is no reason to think it is. And you also don't think there's a vicious bias to be rooted out so...

But whatever, this is between you and Nirolak and I probably shouldn't be posting this.
 

LordRaptor

Member
No, you've skipped a step. We're treating Metacritic as an accurate metric of how good a game is.

No; you are using loaded terminology which is why I questioned your methodology and your conclusion.
To remind you:
it's getting great games at a faster rate than any previous platform.

Metacritic is not a metric of how 'good' a game is, let alone an accurate one.
Metacritic is an aggregate of critical consensus.

In fact, it is not even an aggregate of critical consensus, because it does not use a system such as RottenTomatos does to determine a percentage of critical consensus, it uses a mean average of critical scoring.

And in fact it is not even a mean average of critical scoring, because it standardises disparate review scales into a percentage.

And in fact it is not even a standardised mean average, because it uses a non-public weighting system to lend more credence to some publications over others.

And in fact "good" doesn't even come into it because "good" is a subjective quality - there is no 'gold standard' of 'good videogame' against which all other products are tested; if anything what a metacritic score tells you is how closely a product aligns to metacritic.

So what a metacritic score is actually used for - explicitly in the way its data was framed in this conversation - is as a barometer of likely demand. Publishers do not pay metacritic bonuses because they find critical acclaim inherently worthwhile - they pay them because there is a high correlation between critical acclaim and sales. A game being "good" is not part of that equation.

As to your "time" emphasis, I would question the methodology and conclusion of someone making the claim "The Xbox One is the console with the highest number of 85+ metacritic titles in the fastest time period ever" the day after backwards compatibility was added for the exact same reasons as I am questioning your framing of the data.

Metacritics methodology might say that a virtual console release on a nintendo console, a title being added to a backwards compatible emulator whitelist on an xbox console, and a PS3 title being recompiled for PS4 are all completely different things where only one will get a new entry as a new title, but customers will not and do not see that distinction.

e:
TL;DR
"At this point in its lifespan the PS4 has more 85+ metacritic titles playable than other platforms have had" - thats fine (if true, I don't care enough to check, I suspect it to not be true though).
"The PS4 is getting great games faster than any other platform has ever had" - no, that is reframing data
 

MoonFrog

Member
It's almost like the early days of last-gen.

A game sold well, oh well but HD costs.
HD costs are a huge thing.

Your game has to do better for the same profit. You have to spend more time on the game, so you can't put out as many, increasing this effect.

They are the reason AAA is what it is today and why we lost a lot of developers last generation.

Japan in particular really struggled with them, although they seem to have come out of those woods a bit now.

They are the main reason for DLC, IAP, and GaaS forms of new monetization being as relevant as they are.

They are a completely relevant consideration.
 

sense

Member
Vena was indeed wrong in his assumption, but damn if specific members didn't go quite on the offensive against him, and not just to highlight that he was wrong. You'd almost think he proposed DQXI PS4 will make people I'll due to how wrong it is, or something like that O_O

Yeah, Media Create threads can become embarrassingly childish when specific topics are discussed; we (and I include myself due to past episodes involving me) need to be better than this.

could you please tell how someone should respond to posts like the below especially when said person didn't do basic research before calling out posts as nonsense, asking people to stop bending over backwards and admit that what he says is based on logical conclusion and it is probably right?etc...


Nonsense. They market major titles at all times, there is no real "maybe" here and this is uncharacteristic behavior for a major release.

What's more likely: that a company that loves to buy marketing deals paid for a marketing deal, or that a company that always markets their major releases felt it didn't need to market a major release?

One of these is a logical conclusion based on clear precedent that goes from mundane to insidious this gen, and the other is based on "feelings".

We're just off the heels of one such maneuver with Nier, SE, Sony and the PC release. This doesn't really need extensive sleuthing to piece together from common items. And Sony has every incentive to buy as much mindshare of their platform as they can, especially as this year is going to wrap up with a fairly weak lineup until some undisclosed time in 2018.
Marketing deals can come in many forms. In this case, a deal to control the marketing (ie. commercial/media exposure).

Why else would Nintendo *not* advertise their product and 2DSXL with said product?



There is no logic in believing a company will not market their major product. Especially for a major product that is coming with a new revision of their own product that they are still trying to sell and for which they are still making games.

Rather than trying to bend over backwards to explain a lack of marketing, why not just go for Occam's Razor when we know Sony loves marketing deals in all shapes and sizes?

it is really simple, if you are respectful in your comments then the responses will be the same way as well. the problem in these threads is that a lot of regulars are tuned to be snarky to one another and that leads to childish behavior from time to time. leave room for discussion and the possibility of being wrong instead of moving to shut down someone.
 

Oemenia

Banned
HD costs are a huge thing.

Your game has to do better for the same profit. You have to spend more time on the game, so you can't put out as many, increasing this effect.

They are the reason AAA is what it is today and why we lost a lot of developers last generation.

Japan in particular really struggled with them, although they seem to have come out of those woods a bit now.

They are the main reason for DLC, IAP, and GaaS forms of new monetization being as relevant as they are.

They are a completely relevant consideration.
The days of HD growing pains are over, its just downright lazy of publishers to use that excuse.

Even when some people here kept screaming every game should be on Wii, third-party games sold way more on HD consoles at a higher price-point WITH the added benefit of DLC revenues.
 

Aostia

El Capitan Todd
where in the blue hell are Splatoon worldwide debut numbers!?!??! Maaaan, Nintendo, c'mon! let us KNOW!!!
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
could you please tell how someone should respond to posts like the below especially when said person didn't do basic research before calling out posts as nonsense, asking people to stop bending over backwards and admit that what he says is based on logical conclusion and it is probably right?etc...





it is really simple, if you are respectful in your comments then the responses will be the same way as well. the problem in these threads is that a lot of regulars are tuned to be snarky to one another and that leads to childish behavior from time to time. leave room for discussion and the possibility of being wrong instead of moving to shut down someone.

Mmmh...I must be honest here: my first read of his posts didn't catch up how high the level of snarkness were; basically, going a bit outside of the comfort zone (what I'd call the friendly snarkness) and getting a bit into the nasty territory, independently on whether he was right or wrong. I still believe some of the answers to him were excessive, but, well, they've been provoked by something. Sorry for not getting it earlier.

I still maintain that these threads can get quite childish in specific moments, since it was a general comment
 

Vena

Member
Mmmh...I must be honest here: my first read of his posts didn't catch up how high the level of snarkness were; basically, going a bit outside of the comfort zone (what I'd call the friendly snarkness) and getting a bit into the nasty territory, independently on whether he was right or wrong. I still believe some of the answers to him were excessive, but, well, they've been provoked by something. Sorry for not getting it earlier.

I still maintain that these threads can get quite childish in specific moments, since it was a general comment

There's really no need to defend me or my tone when my point was based on a bad understanding, lol.
 

suicreeps

Member
Now that I see it, Splatoon is going to open higher than Zelda, Mario Kart, and ARMS FW's combined.......probably by a fairly large margin
 
People are way to worried about trivial stuff and who's favorite team is winning...

Which i don't get since we talking about Japan and it easy to see what going to happen .
PS4 will do less than PS3 hopeful not to much .
Switch will sell more than PS4 just a matter of how high it goes maybe less than 3DS .
After a while most games will be on Switch\PS4 unless they really tech heavy .
And mobile will still make loads of money .

It seem like DQXI will do much better on PS4 than i thought it would .
 
Damn I always knew you were one of those casual bandwagon fans.

Very Bandwagon. Many Casual.

you joke but there a lot of bandwagoners on GAF in general lol

Tbh I'm pretty jealous of bandwagoners and fairweather fans (in sports anyway, I dunno why this would matter for games) because they get to enjoy stuff without emotional investment. It's not that serious but when my ball team is losing bad it just heartache lol.
 
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