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[hey_monkey]

People I am less likely to vote today:
3. [m] nin1000 - finding him weirdly antagonistic but I don't scumread it. Eventually I think the posts will assist in conversation; problem now is that not enough people are talking.
15. [f] sawneeks - unless something major happens, wouldn't vote her before d3; we need the interactions with her and others.
8. [m] Trigger - I'm not sure about Trigger but for now he's not a candidate for me.

People who are not posting for now:
12. [m] CornBurrito - really not much d1 and has not yet turned up d2.
5. [m] isaacnukem - still waiting.

Others (no strong feeling):
9. [m] oreomunsta - some great points on calculating numbers. But I'm waiting for more.
11. [m] StanleyPalmtree - Just joke votes and such from Stan for now. Would like to see more or he will move to the middle of the pack.
17. [m] rac - not really enough to judge yet.
13. [m] Christina Mackenzie - not really enough to judge yet.

The too-long list of people I suspect for now:

7. [f] kitsunelaine - so someone said she was jumpy as scum in LB2 and that's true, but it was her first time as scum, so far as I know, and a pair game, and they were impacted d2, so jumpy makes sense. She's still not playing in a pro-town way, though. It could be her finding her footing, but her posts are primarily a lot of small comments or questions but they don't really go anywhere. Could be town without much to say. But it sticks out to me here. I don't know that she would be my first vote today if we're lynching, but she's on my radar.
6. [m] verelios - lower level suspicion here, but Verelios seems... cautious? This is meta but I'm accustomed to seeing Vere in the middle of things. Here he seems kind of absent. Posting enough not to be suspicious and asking some questions but not developing anything.
10. [m] flatearthpandas - more of an if-then, really - if LoC gets implicated, might implicate FEP. Aggressive, a little flippy, not quite sure how to read him right now.
4. [m] Muffin1611 - d1 votes may implicate Muffin, but that's a developing situation.
16. [m] LordOfCastamere? - uncertain, see earlier post.

 

[Muffin1611]

Basically, neutral acting is going to muddy the water. It is in the neutral's best interest to find scum, but cooperating with town to the point we can have clear info means not ignoring, which is not in their best interest. So basically no lynch buys is a day, costs us a lynch, and actually doesn't clarify our info that much because we won't know whether scum deaths were ignited or lynched so we won't know what is what.

This meta is really deep to think about. Thanks for the writeup, that we could never be sure if a scum death was lynched or ignited didn't even cross my mind.

4. [m] Muffin1611 - d1 votes may implicate Muffin, but that's a developing situation.

The same could be said about your D1 votes

 

[Muffin1611]

We also probably won't be 100% aware if neutral gets lynched that they're gone, right? Since they're counted as "anti-town" just like scum. So we'll be pretty much constantly operating under the assumption that neutral is alive.

 

[hey_monkey]

The same could be said about your D1 votes

I mean, I'm not really in the business of saying "lynch me, I'm suspicious" tho. I am generally about as suspicious as a crumpled leaf on the ground because no one ever lets me do anything cool.

 

[hey_monkey]

Wait, I take that back, I did get to be a cop once. pew pew.

 

[hey_monkey]

Okay, I'm gonna go take a nap lest I flood the thread with nonsense and bullshit because medicine head. I stayed home from workschool so I'm antsy.

 

[Trigger]

Are you suspicious of anyone particular Muffin?

 

[Muffin1611]

Are you suspicious of anyone particular Muffin?

Hard to say. My gut feeling on Nin is the same as yersterday, but I also scumread Fireblend all the same for playing kind of lazy and weird in contrast to his play in LB2 which was very coolheaded. This might be just me not really liking Nins kind of rapid post with some hidden aggressiveness and only sometimes with substance play style (i know Nin is going to say he isn't playing aggressive again, but that's just how it seems to me and apparently some others as well).

It was the same with Ouro in LB2 (well, a rather extreme example though). I constantly scumread him because his posts seemed to be entirely in bad faith and lazy and anti-town etc. etc. and he turned out to be town. Might be that I'm doing the same again to a lesser degree.

So to answer your question, not really. I'm currently trying to change my line of thinking a bit and see if some of the high activity and long post-posters seem deceptive to me in what they do, or if they seem to be doing something with a potentially bad intention. I have to say, not an easy task.

 

[Lord of Castamere]

ar.
However, I would think it's in the neutral's best interest not to create chaos. You may have noticed that this scenario is also the worst case scenario for the neutral. On the last day after town eats it, scum lynches the neutral and wins.

Let's float back up to this, together now.

This is correct, but shows why those scenarios are more or less pointless. Every one matches what you said, because it doesn't account for scum. They are the absolute worst case scenarios where no scum is ever hit, no powers are ever connected, and no kills ever cross. I imagine the percent chance of such a game occurring, with this rule set, is astronomical. All of them are aimed at town. If we plug scum into mine, and assume that 2 scum are killed by end( 1 town, 1 arson).

Scenario 2: Lynch every second day after D1. Neutral ignites on third day. 2 Scum Kills

D1: 17 (L, N, B)-> D2: 15 (NL, N, B)-> D3: 14 (L, N, I-T,I-S)-> D4: 10(7T,2S,1N) (NL, N, B)-> D5: 9(L, N, I)-> D6: 6(4T,1S,1N)(NL,N, B) -> D7:5(3T,1S,1N)(L,NK,I) ->D8:?

Arson has to kill scum. A couple at least, in every scenario. As with any neutral, their goal is to keep the board even.

 

[oreomunsta]

So I think I should bring up something about my analyses that could shed some light on the neutral. I didn't outright state it because that'd be helping neutral, but I see more value in it now for town than holding it back from neutral.

Assuming that neutral always plays (non trivial turns), they have two extremes:

Non efficient play: the neutral can't kill when they use their ignite, so using ignite as much as possible would lead to less people being burrowed. This is the case when neutral ignites every second day

Most efficient play: this is very difficult for the neutral to achieve, but essentially they would cause the most amount of kills with possible with only one use of the ignite ability. This means that none of their targets get lynched and they don't get lynched, hence why it's hard to achieve.

Neutral will likely reside between or in one of these extremes as long as they're still in play. So in a sense, we do have an idea of what they could achieve in the worst case scenario for town

 

[oreomunsta]

Oh yeah, one more thing that could screw up neutral's most efficient run is if they burrow a scummy, but that's a good thing for town

 

[Muffin1611]

To be perfectly honest oreo, I don't really see how this was needed to be held back or would be helping neutral if stated, it's a pretty obvious thing mechanic-wise and I would assume the neutral is perfectly aware of that.

Nothing wrong in mentioning it, but this is a pretty obvious take to have.

 

[Lord of Castamere]

Oh yeah, one more thing that could screw up neutral's most efficient run is if they burrow a scummy, but that's a good thing for town

As we just discussed, a good thing for them too. They can't win if all of town die, and no scum die.

 

[Trigger]

Hard to say. My gut feeling on Nin is the same as yersterday, but I also scumread Fireblend all the same for playing kind of lazy and weird in contrast to his play in LB2 which was very coolheaded. This might be just me not really liking Nins kind of rapid post with some hidden aggressiveness and only sometimes with substance play style (i know Nin is going to say he isn't playing aggressive again, but that's just how it seems to me and apparently some others as well).

It was the same with Ouro in LB2 (well, a rather extreme example though). I constantly scumread him because his posts seemed to be entirely in bad faith and lazy and anti-town etc. etc. and he turned out to be town. Might be that I'm doing the same again to a lesser degree.

So to answer your question, not really. I'm currently trying to change my line of thinking a bit and see if some of the high activity and long post-posters seem deceptive to me in what they do, or if they seem to be doing something with a potentially bad intention. I have to say, not an easy task.

Fair enough. I just want to understand where you're coming from today. Your vote helped seal the deal yesterday for Fireblend, so I'm a little suspicious.

 

[nin1000]

Fair enough. I just want to understand where you're coming from today. Your vote helped seal the deal yesterday for Fireblend, so I'm a little suspicious.

He was also the main factor why I even survived.

Thanks muffin

 

[oreomunsta]

To be perfectly honest oreo, I don't really see how this was needed to be held back or would be helping neutral if stated, it's a pretty obvious thing mechanic-wise and I would assume the neutral is perfectly aware of that.

Nothing wrong in mentioning it, but this is a pretty obvious take to have.

I was hoping it would be clear, but it seemed like it wasn't being discussed, so I'm bringing it up in case the misdirection on the neutral is intentional

 

[Muffin1611]

Fair enough. I just want to understand where you're coming from today. Your vote helped seal the deal yesterday for Fireblend, so I'm a little suspicious.

I can understand that, but isn't that a bit of a too flashy position for scum to take? I kinda put myself out there by breaking the tie this way. I'd expect scum to be not quite that risky in the beginning.

 

[Muffin1611]

I was hoping it would be clear, but it seemed like it wasn't being discussed, so I'm bringing it up in case the misdirection on the neutral is intentional

That's fair. Who do you think is misdirecting on the neutral?

 

[hey_monkey]

I was hoping it would be clear, but it seemed like it wasn't being discussed, so I'm bringing it up in case the misdirection on the neutral is intentional

oreo, do you have any other thoughts about where we are in the game that move beyond running the numbers?

 

[Sawneeks]

What do people think of Monkey?

She's a wonderful person and I really enjoy playing in these games with her. Alignment-wise though? Hm, I'd put her at a Town Lean honestly. Nothing really strikes me as Scummy and she's trying to 'solve' the game so I trust her a bit.

total joke.

Since you're here but not really doing/saying much; what are your current reads/thoughts right now?

He was batting for corn and i was antagonistic about it. I kept on Stan but seeing as we didn't flip corn there's not much to be done with Stan. Corn was better at the end of the day, but i was asleep at that point. Would have still much preferred that flip to fire, but then i was town reading fire well before he was a candidate.

How so? Because all I saw was him suddenly acting weird and voting for Rac and then just leaving, I don't know how that is 'better'.

 

[Sawneeks]

also just as a heads up in a bit I'm going to be gone for the rest of the evening. Going out of Town and likely won't be back until super later so I'll check back in tomorrow.

 

[Sawneeks]

Basically, neutral acting is going to muddy the water. It is in the neutral's best interest to find scum, but cooperating with town to the point we can have clear info means not ignoring, which is not in their best interest. So basically no lynch buys is a day, costs us a lynch, and actually doesn't clarify our info that much because we won't know whether scum deaths were ignited or lynched so we won't know what is what.

Also, I thought it over some last night and I do agree with FEP here that even delaying our lynch may not work out since the Neutral can just ignite right before we get info and screw us all over. An extra Day Phase at the cost of a Lynch sounds less and less appealing when you factor in that Scum can't kill the Neutral and it means we have to lynch correctly with l

 

[hey_monkey]

also just as a heads up in a bit I'm going to be gone for the rest of the evening. Going out of Town and likely won't be back until super later so I'll check back in tomorrow.

scumtell

 

[Sawneeks]

fucking

thanks keyboard. totally wasn't still typing that or anything. >.>

Also, I thought it over some last night and I do agree with FEP here that even delaying our lynch may not work out since the Neutral can just ignite right before we get info and screw us all over. An extra Day Phase at the cost of a Lynch sounds less and less appealing when you factor in that Scum can't kill the Neutral and it means we have to lynch correctly with l

*with less lynches at our disposal. Considering also that Gafia Town will be Gafia Town and that we're in a rather...quiet game, I don't put our chances at lynching correctly very high. To the people also saying to just 'wait for our PRs', we don't even know if they're still alive or not. Burb is dead and we have no clue what he was or even if he was a PR or not. For all we know, we're now down our Cop/Doc/Hypnotist and waiting for them will just be a fruitless effort.

tl;dr

Vote: Isaacnukem

Because LoC already got to Rac and I want to hear more from our other no-voter besides a simple greeting. Thoughts, reads, no lynch v lynch, etc.

 

[hey_monkey]

total joke.

Since you're here but not really doing/saying much; what are your current reads/thoughts right now?

reiterating, since people are already sitting on some of the others and I've prodded oreo. Stan, what's the good word? What's the bad word? You got any words?

 

[Sawneeks]

scumtell

you know, I've actually caught myself subconsciously capitalizing the word town in essays and school work before.

i'm not addicted to mafia i swear

 

[oreomunsta]

oreo, do you have any other thoughts about where we are in the game that move beyond running the numbers?

Yeah, I do, but I can't write up a full read list, if that's what you're wondering. I could make one later in the day.

Maybe my list could also answer your question, muffin

 

[hey_monkey]

Yeah, I do, but I can't write up a full read list, if that's what you're wondering. I could make one later in the day.

Maybe my list could also answer your question, muffin

I don't think a read list is necessary unless you feel the need to make one; forced read lists are always kinda flimsy. But really all you've talked about so far are the numbers. I'm just curious where you stand otherwise.

 

[Verelios]

Only things that stick out to me is the sudden Nin surge last minute that's gets thrown up by Muffin only for him to switch off it last-minute with bandwagoning logic as he follows Monkey's read of Kits and Vere's Fire vote which read kinda opportunistic to me. Knowing Burb and Fire ended up being Town though means this only really makes sense if Muffin or Vere were trying to save Nin so if he ends up being Scum I'd probably look at either of them.

However, in the complete opposite direction it's entirely possible the End of Day candidates were all Town or Neutral, meaning Scum could have just sat on the sidelines and parked their votes elsewhere without really having to worry too much. This includes our two no votes, Rac and Isaac, and everyone who sat on people with only 1 vote: Oreo, Trigger, and CornBro. There's almost no reason to ever No Vote as Town since it's our main weapon at finding Scum so I don't understand why you wouldn't on a Day where it was discussed as to how important it was. Parking a vote off on someone who isn't even in the running kinda falls into the same thing since it's a vote that is, essentially, doing absolutely nothing. Trigger was on Stan who had some votes for a while before dropping off last minute so I'm not too worried there, but CornBro's and Oreo's votes are the ones that sit poorly with me. Oreo's was an OMGUS that just didn't go anywhere and CornBro suddenly got really concerned over low count posters and just parked it on Rac without doing much about it either.

so, tl;dr, I'd be a little more concerned about Vere/Muffin if Nin flips Scum and the gaggle of voters with votes that did nothing ( Rac, Isaac, CornBro, Oreo ) really need to step it up since I doubt all 3 Scum and the 1 Neutral are right there.

Not surprised you're coming at me sideways Saw, just a little disappointed at you calling my vote opportunistic and basically hailing a domino act for future days. I voted Fire off the island because his vote on Nin was a last minute unsubstantiated claim, what I would expect a swing vote to look like. I mean, you call my vote opportunistic but failed to mention/acknowledge his vote yesterday.

So, hypothetically, you lynch me, find out I'm town, double down next day and lynch Muffin and then get around to lynching Nin. I guess. Or, Nin is town and you get around to either finding this 'theory' was bull and wasting a couple days. Conversely, what happened is exactly as you say and Muffin/me are scum bum, you lynch all three of us and have a happy day. What are the odds of these different scenarios occuring?

What do you think of my post on the previous page, then? Think we have any merit there or do you propose looking elsewhere in the votes.

I think it's a good lead. I'd be willing to look more at a Vere or Muffin lynch. Scum can't communicate, so I don't think that all of them ate votes for Firevlend.

So you guys are going to be playing craps with your votes and hoping you hit scum. I'm curious about the process you'd go through to prove this and if it involves 3 days of wasted lynched(or semi-wasted).

 

[Sawneeks]

Not surprised you're coming at me sideways Saw, just a little disappointed at you calling my vote opportunistic and basically hailing a domino act for future days. I voted Fire off the island because his vote on Nin was a last minute unsubstantiated claim, what I would expect a swing vote to look like. I mean, you call my vote opportunistic but failed to mention/acknowledge his vote yesterday.

So, hypothetically, you lynch me, find out I'm town, double down next day and lynch Muffin and then get around to lynching Nin. I guess. Or, Nin is town and you get around to either finding this 'theory' was bull and wasting a couple days. Conversely, what happened is exactly as you say and Muffin/me are scum bum, you lynch all three of us and have a happy day. What are the odds of these different scenarios occuring?

So you guys are going to be playing craps with your votes and hoping you hit scum. I'm curious about the process you'd go through to prove this and if it involves 3 days of wasted lynched(or semi-wasted).

Oooooor we go with the scenario I was speculating on in the post you quoted and we'd lynch Nin and then worry about going after one, or both, of you. I never said anything about lynching either of you first for those votes, I said that they only make sense from a Scum perspective if Nin was Scum and he would be the one I went after first in that instance. But seeing as I still kinda Town Lean on Nin I'm not terribly concerned there right now, it was Trigger who seemed ready to lynch you two first instead of Nin.

 

[Trigger]

So you guys are going to be playing craps with your votes and hoping you hit scum. I'm curious about the process you'd go through to prove this and if it involves 3 days of wasted lynched(or semi-wasted).

I mean, aren't we all in that position technically? I think there's a few players that are generally town read, but I don't think anyone else is off the table. I don't think lynching you or Muffin is necessarily a bad idea.

 

[oreomunsta]

I don't think a read list is necessary unless you feel the need to make one; forced read lists are always kinda flimsy. But really all you've talked about so far are the numbers. I'm just curious where you stand otherwise.

Hmmm I have a strong suspicion that mafia isn't as quiet as we think they might be, so lynching "dead weight" isn't a very good way to go.

There are a few people that I scum read, but it'd be more intuitive guesses, since I don't have time to go through post histories.

 

[hey_monkey]

Welp. Unless something changes today:

vote: No Lynch

 

[oreomunsta]

Here's my short list for scum reads:

kits
Muffin
Verelios

 

[Muffin1611]

...That still doesn't answer my question about misdirecting on the neutral, oreo :/ I have no clue what I or the other two have done in that direction.

 

[Verelios]

Oooooor we go with the scenario I was speculating on in the post you quoted and we'd lynch Nin and then worry about going after one, or both, of you. I never said anything about lynching either of you first for those votes, I said that they only make sense from a Scum perspective if Nin was Scum and he would be the one I went after first in that instance. But seeing as I still kinda Town Lean on Nin I'm not terribly concerned there right now, it was Trigger who seemed ready to lynch you two first instead of Nin.

Saw, come on Saw. You and I both know this is bullshit unless you're pre-empting Nin being scum. I agree that it's good to look back at the votes if he's scum but going from how town operates I doubt they'll care whether he is or not.

I mean, aren't we all in that position technically? I think there's a few players that are generally town read, but I don't think anyone else is off the table. I don't think lynching you or Muffin is necessarily a bad idea.

Yeah, I know, but pre-supposing our lynches on scattered day 1 votes made to [/I]protect Nin[/I] is ridiculous garbage. Any reason is good enough for suspicion but at least make it convincing before throwing up torches. It sounds like you don't care who gets lynched so long as you seem productive.

 

[oreomunsta]

...That still doesn't answer my question about misdirecting on the neutral, oreo :/ I have no clue what I or the other two have done in that direction.

Sorry Muffin to be fair, these are just who I would guess if I were to say right now, so I don't think anyone should put much weight behind this list.

They're also not necessarily related to neutral talk. I just pitched in on the neutral because some people were acting as if it was a mystery and good enough reason to throw out all the numbers some of us worked on, where we can understand the limits of what neutral can or can't do

 

[Trigger]

Yeah, I know, but pre-supposing our lynches on scattered day 1 votes made to [/I]protect Nin[/I] is ridiculous garbage. Any reason is good enough for suspicion but at least make it convincing before throwing up torches. It sounds like you don't care who gets lynched so long as you seem productive.

I don't think you're trying to protect Nin. Maybe that's what Saw is arguing? I simply think you're worth looking into and not above lynching you. Who do you think is the better alternative? It's silly to say any reason is good enough for suspicion and then shoot down suspicion in your direction in the same sentence.

 

[Verelios]

I don't think you're trying to protect Nin. Maybe that's what Saw is arguing? I simply think you're worth looking into and not above lynching you. Who do you think is the better alternative? It's silly to say any reason is good enough for suspicion and then shoot down suspicion in your direction in the same sentence.

So...what I'm getting here if I understand you correctly is that you have some reasons for suspicion and are therefore interested in pursuing them. Reasons. Like, you don't have any of your own, but wouldn't mind piggybacking on a lynch. If you have reasons for doubt, I'm willing to hear them.

I'm not above being lynched, I'm lynched every other game, that's not the problem. No one should be absolved from guilt until their alliance is known. My problem is when people, like you're doing now, throw shit at me for the general reasoning of because 'I felt like it'. That's not suspicion. That's illogical hearsay. That's busywork.

 

[CornBurrito]

Sorry for my absence on Sunday. Time to get in the game.

 

[CornBurrito]

I'm willing to bet on WIFOM.

Burb was the most active town player. And perhaps he was feared.

We might be best off focusing on our efforts on players that were trying to lynch Burb.

 

[hey_monkey]

Burb was the most active town player. And perhaps he was feared.

I'm not against digging into the Burb death even if we can't verify, but how are you measuring active here? Three people had more posts, one was just about even, and Burb was gone for the second half of the day phase.

 

[CornBurrito]

I'm not against digging into the Burb death even if we can't verify, but how are you measuring active here? Three people had more posts, one was just about even, and Burb was gone for the second half of the day phase.

I thought only two had more posts?

 

[Lord of Castamere]

I'm willing to bet on WIFOM.

Burb was the most active town player. And perhaps he was feared.

We might be best off focusing on our efforts on players that were trying to lynch Burb.

So active that he didn't even bother to defend himself or Fireblend.

 

[hey_monkey]

I thought only two had more posts?

Sawneeks, nin, and I all had more, and FEP was right behind. Then several people right behind that. I mean, this isn't difficult data to come by in the grand scheme of things.

 

[CornBurrito]

Day 1 Postcount: Burbeting 32, Christina Mackenzie 19, CornBurrito 17, Fireblend 21, flatearthpandas 28, hey_monkey 76, isaacnukem 10, kitsunelaine 22, Lord of Castamere 23, Muffin1611 25, nin1000 80, oreomunsta 22, rac 11, Sawneeks 39, StanleyPalmtree 19, Trigger 18, Verelios 23

To be honest, I saw this post thought Burb was most active.

 

[YesNOnoNOYes]

To be honest, I saw this post thought Burb was most active.

It's alphabetical.

 

[hey_monkey]

Town can really only afford to lynch for coasting early on, and honestly that tends to only happen on D1 and D2. In a normal game anyway.

vote: CornBurrito

get your head in the game, man.

 

[Verelios]

To be honest, I saw this post thought Burb was most active.

It's alphabetical.

#Dead

You didn't have to snatch his soul, Yn

 

[flatearthpandas]

So, hypothetically, you lynch me, find out I'm town, double down next day and lynch Muffin and then get around to lynching Nin. I guess. Or, Nin is town and you get around to either finding this 'theory' was bull and wasting a couple days.

Only if every other person who dies is also town.

How so? Because all I saw was him suddenly acting weird and voting for Rac and then just leaving, I don't know how that is 'better'.

He was doing something? Before I went to bed he was basically at zero contribution, where the most useful thing he'd done was defend himself. Better is a relative term here.

Let's float back up to this, together now.

This is correct, but shows why those scenarios are more or less pointless. Every one matches what you said, because it doesn't account for scum. They are the absolute worst case scenarios where no scum is ever hit, no powers are ever connected, and no kills ever cross. I imagine the percent chance of such a game occurring, with this rule set, is astronomical. All of them are aimed at town. If we plug scum into mine, and assume that 2 scum are killed by end( 1 town, 1 arson).

Scenario 2: Lynch every second day after D1. Neutral ignites on third day. 2 Scum Kills

D1: 17 (L, N, B)-> D2: 15 (NL, N, B)-> D3: 14 (L, N, I-T,I-S)-> D4: 10(7T,2S,1N) (NL, N, B)-> D5: 9(L, N, I)-> D6: 6(4T,1S,1N)(NL,N, B) -> D7:5(3T,1S,1N)(L,NK,I) ->D8:?

Arson has to kill scum. A couple at least, in every scenario. As with any neutral, their goal is to keep the board even.

What is the conclusion here exactly? What are you saying is town's best course of action?