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[tokkun]

With how much he has set things up for Winds of Winter, I have no doubt that it's not only going to be a much quicker book to write, but that a lot of shit is going to happen as well as plotlines resolved. It's practically inevitable.

And to keep going this 5000th argument about it.

With ADWD, he had "half the book written already" by the time AFFC was released, and it would be released "next year".

The people you are arguing with here are not hopeless pessimists. They are people who have become embittered through experience. People who went through cycles of optimism over and over with ADWD, just to have those hopes dashed again and again. I wish I could be optimistic about the next book coming out in 3 years, but I just don't have it in me anymore. If you want to be a standard-bearer of optimism about this series, then go for it. But don't expect many of us long-suffering fans to be right behind you.

 

[ZephyrFate]

With ADWD, he had "half the book written already" by the time AFFC was released, and it would be released "next year".

The people you are arguing with here are not hopeless pessimists. They are people who have become embittered through experience. People who went through cycles of optimism over and over with ADWD, just to have those hopes dashed again and again. I wish I could be optimistic about the next book coming out in 3 years, but I just don't have it in me anymore. If you want to be a standard-bearer of optimism about this series, then go for it. But don't expect many of us long-suffering fans to be right behind you.

I don't want nor care if you agree or stand behind me about it. I was NOT disappointed with either Feast or Dance, so I guess I will take the mantle of being the most optimistic ASOIAF fan here.

However

However

if Winds of Winter takes 6 years and nothing happens in it, I will give up on the series.

 

[elrechazado]

I don't want nor care if you agree or stand behind me about it. I was NOT disappointed with either Feast or Dance, so I guess I will take the mantle of being the most optimistic ASOIAF fan here.

However

However

if Winds of Winter takes 6 years and nothing happens in it, I will give up on the series.

We weren't talking really about whether you liked it or not, but how long it took to write the books. You seem to be in a bit of denial over this. How can you not be understanding this point, or even arguing the opposite? The books have taken years and years to write, and it would be extreme naivete and optimism to think that this is suddenly going to magically change.

 

[ZephyrFate]

We weren't talking really about whether you liked it or not, but how long it took to write the books. You seem to be in a bit of denial over this. How can you not be understanding this point, or even arguing the opposite? The books have taken years and years to write, and it would be extreme naivete and optimism to think that this is suddenly going to magically change.

How is it naivete? The pieces are set up. The knot can be fixed pretty easily at this point, and unless there's some other groundbreaking problem, the Winds of Winter should take much less time to write.

I'm not gonna sit here and assume that just because the past two books took a long time somehow means that all the books will. Especially considering the majority of the series had only 2 years between books.

 

[elrechazado]

How is it naivete? The pieces are set up. The knot can be fixed pretty easily at this point, and unless there's some other groundbreaking problem, the Winds of Winter should take much less time to write.

I'm not gonna sit here and assume that just because the past two books took a long time somehow means that all the books will. Especially considering the majority of the series had only 2 years between books.

Ok, you're just being deliberately obtuse, never mind then. Your denial and flipping out on anyone with an opinion different than yours in these threads is stretching a bit thin for me.

 

[ZephyrFate]

Ok, you're just being deliberately obtuse, never mind then.

If you want to give up the fight, sure, go ahead. Bitterness is not a fun feeling to have.

I don't think you know what "flipping out" means. And I like how you use that phrase probably because I'm not a part of the bitterness bandwagon you're all on. Spend the time between books reading other books.

Edit: Considering my last ban was ASOIAF-related, I imagine this discussion will lead to another one. Feel free to dogpile on me all you want when it happens.

 

[LocoMrPollock]

I agree that George is gonna pump out the last 2 books fairly quickly (by his standards anyway). People seem to forget how quick he pumped out the first 3, and now that all the pieces are set and the endgame is in sight, I'm optimistic that we will get to the conclusion within 4 to 5 years, mayhap sooner.

I also think George wants to get this fucker done. He's already got plans for another series, crazy sonofabitch that he is. He's also learned a lot these last 10 years and he's not gonna make any of the mistakes that plagued Feast and Dance.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I honestly think TWOW will be out in 2-3 years. Martin no longer has time to take years on the books, assuming the show remains successful. I agree with the point that each book creates its own problems for him, but I still think ADWD/AFFC had even more problems and it should be "easier" now. The definition of easier in relation to Martin is still "a long fucking time" but it won't be 4-5+ years imo. I'm pretty confident on that...

Given all the good will and press he has received this year, I think he'll enter 2012 refreshed and ready to rock. Hopefully towards the fall/winter he slows down from all the traveling and just rests. Watch a lot of football, Mr. Martin. Chill, take naps, watch porn or whatever. You've earned it

 

[suffah]

It took him SIX FUCKING YEARS to write a book where "nothing happened." As others have pointed out, Dance was supposedly only a year away when he dropped the bomb that he was splitting the book.

He's still doing cons (he's a whore), editing other books, Jets are watchable, whatever new involvement the HBO series requires, board game, CCG, designing swords, did I mention travelling to a bazillion cons??? All this shit means 2015 if we are lucky.

Wish I was still foolish enough to believe 2-3 years.

 

[John Harker]

I have to chuckle at people who are so confident in George RR Martin's writing ability, like they know the man personally. Or they wave around the HBO show like it's some god-binding contract that's going to change how the man operates. Conjecture is one thing, but to blatantly state a reputation on when you "know" he will finish a book is kind of wild, no? Let's just be honest here, he's older than he was when he started, the man loves to travel and tour and hits a ton of conventions a year, is more popular than ever and is in more demand for appearances, interviews, signings, licensing deals for toys/figurines/card games, franchise meetings, publisher meetings, he consults and writes scripts for a television show, has shown direct interest in getting more involved in other properties like Wild Cards again, is consulting on at least two videogames we know of, etc etc. The man is busy. As much as we want ASOIAF to be his sole reason for existence, it's not. And yea, a decade ago he was shooting these things out in 2 years, but that was his rising star and now he's a prima donna and will do what he will on his own damn schedule. As he's shown time and time again.

Conjecture is fun but let's just be honest with ourselves. Just because he has 100 pages done and you want him to have his plots all in a line, there's no indication as of yet this is going to be any quicker than he's been lately. I'd be really happy if the next one comes out before 6 years is up

 

[LocoMrPollock]

Oh..I can say conjecture..look at me, look at me.. blah, blah, blah.

We're merely optimistic. Nothing more.

 

[John Harker]

Oh..I can say conjecture..look at me, look at me.. blah, blah, blah.

We're merely optimistic. Nothing more.

Oh there's a lot more than "optimism" going on above

 

[flyover]

I'm kind of optimistic, too. I get the feeling that he was having some major second-act issues (all about coordinating and setting the right pieces in place at the right time) and that the next book starts the third act (where the storylines finally converge and there are fewer intricacies regarding the timelines and locations of characters who are nowhere near one another).

I could also be totally wrong.

 

[Dresden]

Some of you guys need to calm down.

 

[ZephyrFate]

Oh there's a lot more than "optimism" going on above

Nope, just optimism.

 

[Basileus777]

Nope, just optimism.

There's someone on this page who argued that the entire series could be done by this time 2015.

 

[JasonUresti]

I think Victarion is getting some fan love because, unlike so many characters in ADWD, he's direct and decisive. You don't get lots of self doubting and worrying in his chapters, you get action and commands and movement.

I was hoping very much for him to show up in the bay towards the end, mainly because I knew that when that brutal fucker arrived, shit was going to start happening, missing queen or no missing queen.

Victarion isn't going to negotiate with anybody, he's going to strike and strike hard.

And, if Dany must have a monster by her side, let it be a honest and honorable monster in Victarion, rather than the lying, dishonorable prancing dandy Daario.

The more I think about it, the more I see Daario's mouth winning him an axe to the face. Big Vic wont be as forgiving of insults or foolish boasting like Barristan.

 

[elrechazado]

Daario is just the embodiment of every flashy douchebag that the chicks GRRM was crushing on in high school went out with instead of him. Forever alone.

 

[Chris R]

There's someone on this page who argued that the entire series could be done by this time 2015.

It could be. One in a million chance maybe, but that doesn't mean it CAN'T happen.

Not like it matters what me or anyone else thinks about when the series will be done though. It will be done (hopefully) when it is done.

 

[bluemax]

Martin isn't even gonna start writing again until like, middle of next year. Then he probably takes half the year off for football season, so what maybe 3 or 4 months of writing tops next year? Meh.

 

[tokkun]

Well, he did a really half-assed launch tour this time compared to AFFC, so maybe that means he wants to spend less time on PR and more on content. Or maybe he felt it wasn't necessary due to the popularity of the show.

 

[bathala]

Martin isn't even gonna start writing again until like, middle of next year. Then he probably takes half the year off for football season, so what maybe 3 or 4 months of writing tops next year? Meh.

isn't Winds 100 pg when he posted about it on June 2010.

at least he started already

 

[elrechazado]

isn't Winds 100 pg when he posted about it on June 2010.

at least he started already

I agree, just like he had most of dwd written when he finished affc.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I can't help but think Daario is either dead (catapulted into the city alongside infected bodies) or going to betray Dany.

 

[Piecake]

I can't help but think Daario is either dead (catapulted into the city alongside infected bodies) or going to betray Dany.

I hope he's dead. I really don't like his character and every scene with him is dull

 

[BamYouHaveAids]

Daario being dead is just wishful thinking, you know he is still alive.

 

[IamMattFox]

I want to see Selmy kick some more ass in the next book. Him destroying the pit fighter was so good.

Also gonna need a hell of a lot more Jaime. I hope he re-kills Catelyn at some point.

 

[tokkun]

So speaking of betraying Dany, what's the current status of the 3 betrayals?

Gold: Ben Plumm
Blood: Mirri Maz Duur
Love: Jorah Mormont

Probably one or more of those are fakeouts I guess.

 

[LocoMrPollock]

Daario being dead is just wishful thinking, you know he is still alive.

Pretty sure he's dead, along with the other hostages. They may have kept him alive if Dany was still around, but seeing as she was MIA he'd outlived his usefulness. I think he probably served his purpose concerning Dany as well, so I see no reason for him to stick around. His death will just give her a reason to burn them all.. maybe.

 

[suzu]

On Love: I hope Daario betrays Dany so she can have a reason to light him on fire or something. I don't understand her lust for him at all.

 

[IamMattFox]

Gold: Ben Plumm
Love: Jorah Mormont

Do you think these guys count since they're coming back to her via Tyrion?

I think the treason she experiences will be absolutely obvious like with Mirri. Dany is just trying to get the treason over with in her mind so she doesn't have to deal with it, but I bet one of her dragons is going to get killed, sold, whatever, and then something equally huge happens.

On Love: I hope Daario betrays Dany so she can have a reason to light him on fire or something. I don't understand her lust for him at all.

He's a purple bearded hard body and she's a horny teenager. What's not to understand?

Now if she had hooked up with Quentyn, I could understand your disbelief.

 

[tokkun]

Do you think these guys count since they're coming back to her via Tyrion?

I think the treason she experiences will be absolutely obvious like with Mirri. Dany is just trying to get the treason over with in her mind so she doesn't have to deal with it, but I bet one of her dragons is going to get killed, sold, whatever, and then something equally huge happens.

Yeah, I think that the point is that she will lower her guard and be surprised when she is betrayed by someone.

The Jorah one is questionable, but Ben seems like a pretty clear "betrayed for gold" case.

 

[IamMattFox]

The Jorah one is questionable, but Ben seems like a pretty clear "betrayed for gold" case.

Plumm would fit in with the prophecy, but I still think something bigger is coming.

The Second Sons didn't really fuck Dany's day by changing sides, did they? And now they're back with her again since they're on Tyrion's non-existent payroll.

Mirri killed her unborn child and made her khal a vegetable. I think the other two will be big things like that.

 

[apana]

One reason to expect he is going to try and get both books done on time and get them done well is because of his legacy. He knows now that his books have gotten a TV adaptation and sales are increasing that he has a chance to be remembered for a long time afterwards, I'm sure every writer dreams about that. Having the last two books done in a timely manner with an excellent ending will help his overall legacy.

 

[Dresden]

Dragons love shiny things, they'll all be like ooh gold and fly off to Asshai or something.

 

[elrechazado]

Dragons love shiny things, they'll all be like ooh gold and fly off to Asshai or something.

and eat daario's head or something

 

[Nymerio]

What's the word on Daario? Dead or alive? He was one of the hostages wasn't he?

Also why do people think Ben's betrayal was one of the prophesized? His changing sides was pretty inconsequential wasn't it? Besides, as others have said, he's back with her again.

Same goes for Jora, I think those betrayals would have a bigger impact. Jora didn't really do any harm and he actually stopped spying on her.

I would actually buy it if Daario would somehow betray her (if he's still alive), when the battle starts. That could actually work as both a betrayal for love and gold.

 

[ItAintEasyBeinCheesy]

Daario is probably worth more alive, he could always takes his men to the other side and they probably know Dany has a hard on for him.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I want to see Selmy kick some more ass in the next book. Him destroying the pit fighter was so good.

Also gonna need a hell of a lot more Jaime. I hope he re-kills Catelyn at some point.

Cosign. I was ready for a fake-out where Selmy loses for some reason (ala the Red Viper) but instead he just destroys the guy, casually. Loved that scene.

 

[Binabik15]

I doubt Jorah is one of the betrayels, much less for LOVE.

He hoped to be allowed out of exile, so unless you want to say he did it for love of native land, there´s not much love motivating him. His loyality is because of love.

I doubt that she has really been betrayed a second time already, though Quentyn sure tried, attempting to steal a dragon.

Mirri Maz Duur wrecked her shit so bad while Dany thought she saved her from rape, torture and death. The other betrayals are probably big things as well, just like the prophecised wedding (king wearing a wolf´s head) was a total low-blow to readers and the Starks.

My guess? Love could be her little slave girl. Dany repeatedly told her "you´d never betray me" and the girl has brothers among the Unsullied she dearly loves. There´s a reason Martin had Dany say that. Could be that he wants people to think "nah, with that setup it´d be too obvious", only to ram the dagger in.

Possibly Tyrion: Gold (to get Casterly Rock) or Love (he finds his wife and then wants Dany dead?), by sending Aegon away he already schemed against her? For her? He is shown so hell bent on destroying his siblings, but I doubt he´d be content to be at Dany´s mercy for the rest of his life.

One has to wonder what Arch Maester Maerwyn will do once he arrives wherever he went.

Oh, the possibilities. No wonder Martin takes ages to decide on stuff

 

[ahoyhoy]

I just finished the book this morning, so I'm not exactly caught up with the discussion, but why don't people think the poisoned locusts/ongoing Yunkai siege the betrayal for gold? It's quite obvious the Harpies are only interested in gold in their lust to reinstate the "old ways" that would bring back the fighting pits/slavery in full force. Just because Dany didn't die or suffer any egregious wounds doesn't necessarily discount that plot being a "betrayal". Hell, maybe Drogon was aware of the inevitable betrayal and was sent/came on his own accord to rescue Dany?

 

[Nymerio]

I don't think Tyrion could be a betrayal. Has he ever done something really dishonorable? He is one of the smartest people in the books and and I just can't imagine him ever doing something so low.

Something else that always bothered me is Miri Maz Duur's betrayal. Didn't she explicitly say that noone is to enter the tent while she is performing the ritual? Daeneries being carried inside the tent always seemed more like a coincidence. I mean, what she says after Drogo "come's back" is pretty bitter, but I never quite got the vibe that she planned for Dany to enter the tent and loose her child. But if you think about about the impact that had on the story it's logical to assume it was one of the betrayals.

Also, I think it's too soon for all the betrayals to have already happened. I think at least one of them happens in one of the later books where it has a far more significant role than now. If every prophesized betrayal has happened or is happening right now it would have been far too easy for Dany. What would that leave us for the rest of the story. Everything will go alright for her? I don' think so, considering the stuff that happened to other characters in the story. And who is to say that all those prophesies have to come true? It's note like those Shadowbinders would be first to be wrong about their visions...

(Sorry for any spelling/grammer mistakes, alcohol has that effect on me )

 

[tokkun]

I don't think Tyrion could be a betrayal. Has he ever done something really dishonorable?

Murdering Shae?
Murdering Simon Silvertongue?

It's also suggested that he knew Jaime threw Bran out the window but didn't do anything about it.

 

[Count of Monte Sawed-Off]

Murdering Shae?
Murdering Simon Silvertongue?

It's also suggested that he knew Jaime threw Bran out the window but didn't do anything about it.

I think he suspected Jaime and Cersei may have had something to do with Bran's fall, but never actually knew. Although I'm not suggesting that he would have actually done anything about it had he known.

 

[diunxx]

I'm the only one that things that either Barristan or Missandei, are gonna be the betray for love?

 

[Basileus777]

I'm the only one that things that either Barristan or Missandei, are gonna be the betray for love?

I think it will be Daario or Barristan. I didn't think of Missandei, but I suppose that could work too.

 

[renitou]

I'm the only one that things that either Barristan or Missandei, are gonna be the betray for love?

Ooh, good call.

 

[ManBearPanda]

I'm the only one that things that either Barristan or Missandei, are gonna be the betray for love?

Since finishing ADWD, my buddies and I have a theory that Barristan will betray Dany out of love for Aegon. Barristan hates seeing children die, so seeing one of Rhaegar's children suddenly reappear again might give him a motive to betray Dany.

 

[ahoyhoy]

Since finishing ADWD, my buddies and I have a theory that Barristan will betray Dany out of love for Aegon. Barristan hates seeing children die, so seeing one of Rhaegar's children suddenly reappear again might give him a motive to betray Dany.

That doesn't make much sense. I don't think Barristan is capable of drawing a high distinction between the daughter of Aerys and the son of Rhagaer.

If he does end up betraying Dany, I would have to assume it would be done in league with Varys. Love for "the good of the realm" might put Varys/Barristan ad odds with Dany (especially if she decides to recruit a bunch of Dothraki Screamers to take back the realm her way.

 

[Lax Mike]

Since finishing ADWD, my buddies and I have a theory that Barristan will betray Dany out of love for Aegon. Barristan hates seeing children die, so seeing one of Rhaegar's children suddenly reappear again might give him a motive to betray Dany.

You could also say that a betrayal by Barristan as he goes over to Aegon's camp would be the betrayal for blood, as Aegon is of the same "blood" as Dany, although this is assuming that Miir maz Dur's treachery was discounted. However, I can see plenty of people betraying her for Aegon, specifically Tyrion, Illyrio, Daario, and definitely Varys.

Also, the wording of the prophecy, "Three treasons will you know," leaves it open to be interpreted that she does not suffer the treasons, but rather is the source of them.