Barkley's Justice
Member
Prediction thread?
Sony software-only publisher within next 10 years.
Sony software-only publisher within next 10 years.
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David Jaffe: "The next generation of hardware will be the last consoles."
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I don't think Bravia's has worked for Sony for a LOOOOOONG time.
I think it's a lot more technically impressive than either of those, especially Star Wars. Watch_Dogs at least has the excuse of being gameplay and open world, but the Star Wars stuff was also mostly cut scenes (or linear corridor shooting which is almost the same thing) but looked a lot worse than Agni's Philosophy.
He admits he's been wrong before in his predictions and he doesn't have a record of predicting shit correctly. Yeah, clearly he has an idea of what he's talking about!!!
And with that make absolutely sure its the last generation of consoles?
because with great power comes a steep price point.
I for one welcome our new Steam Overlords...
Seriously though Jaffe is probably right with the way things are going this is probably true. Maybe not next gen but very soon.
AgentChris
Member
That's one way for Sony to fix their TV business.
Cerebral Assassin
Member
Lucky none really exist anymore, isn't it.
The problem with these predictions are that they all rely on almost everyone having broadband connections which are not just high bandwidth, but very low latency by the end of the decade. I have no doubt that that'll be the case in most first-world cities and that game streaming will become big business, but there are lots of rural areas which just won't have the internet connections for it, not to even mention the potential increases in demand from developing countries.
Streaming services like Onlive and Gaikai will definitely take market share from consoles, but they won't kill them for a long time yet.
Streaming services like Onlive and Gaikai will definitely take market share from consoles, but they won't kill them for a long time yet.
In 10+ years I could see Nintendo consolidating handhelds and console to one device. Bring home a 3DS sized device and dock with your TV or something. Chip speeds will be fast enough and it would be much easier to support.
Microsoft seems to want to go into home automation/set top box future. Sony too to a certain degree. Plus they both have mobile focuses; Sony with the PS Suite, Microsoft with a unified Metro on everything. Both Microsoft and Sony have (rightly) been criticized for a lack of cohesive vision though, so who knows.
Microsoft seems to want to go into home automation/set top box future. Sony too to a certain degree. Plus they both have mobile focuses; Sony with the PS Suite, Microsoft with a unified Metro on everything. Both Microsoft and Sony have (rightly) been criticized for a lack of cohesive vision though, so who knows.
I remember Jaffe talking on Twitter about On-Live and how in the future its going to be a box from Sony, Microsoft, and or Nintendo that will allow you to stream their selection (As well as third party selections) of games to it. No need for future hardware its all streaming.
I think that bandwidth caps and bandwidth issues in general will keep consoles in business for a longer time than people think. All that streaming is going to be a nightmare for ISP's.
I think that bandwidth caps and bandwidth issues in general will keep consoles in business for a longer time than people think. All that streaming is going to be a nightmare for ISP's.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Honestly, I can see a day coming soon where your iPhone/Tablet/whatever links wirelessly to your TV/PC and streams media like video games directly to the device. Like Airplay in a way but lets say you wanted to play Elder Scrolls 7, you would connect to the server on your iphone, then 'throw' the file onto your TV and boom, play.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
I swear I've heard this at the end of the last 2 generations.
Me. I have no use for all this extra bullshit that has infested every piece of entertainment and tech device today.
AgentChris
Member
Jaffe has a GAF account. It's daivdjaffe.
I think he's making a decent guess. They will probably end up selling streaming boxes, but they won't try it until they think it's financially viable to cut off people who can't/won't hook up their consoles to a good enough internet connection.
Expect next gen consoles to test the water here and there with the internet requirements.
Expect next gen consoles to test the water here and there with the internet requirements.
specialguy
Banned
so did i jaffe, so did i...
I think the big problem with this model, and I think whoever goes first is really going to have to differentiate themselves, is that by turning to a content streaming service you are relying on the ability to stream content which may prove to be too limiting to the potential market for some time yet even though it allows publishers greater control of pricing content.
Anyways Crytek was saying sort of the same thing, that within 10 years the tech for this concept will be achievable.
what are you even trying to say?
Anyways Crytek was saying sort of the same thing, that within 10 years the tech for this concept will be achievable.
what are you even trying to say?
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Except it wasn't possible until next generation.
Syphon Filter
Member
I think that's his point...
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
I wouldn't. I'll take up PC gaming and buy a handheld.
But this is the thing, it is the last barrier and one that can come down in 10 years. People saying they want streaming now are nuts or rich or live in an awesome place or a combination of those, but in 10 years, when who knows how crazy fast internet will be? Hell yeah.
Metalmurphy
Member
Q
qizah
Unconfirmed Member
Jaffe is right in saying the industry is different. However, I don't think the upcoming generation wlll be the death of consoles.
I feel like all three manufacturers need to find a way to price their software (downloadable) competitively against iOS downloadable titles. I feel that Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony will all do well in that regard.
I also see certain changes like offering games digitally and in retail from all three as a definite plus and I can see all three of them pushing that heavily (it's already happening).
The jist of what I'm trying to say is - all three need to adapt to what the industry is becoming and the demand for consoles will continue to be there.
I feel like all three manufacturers need to find a way to price their software (downloadable) competitively against iOS downloadable titles. I feel that Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony will all do well in that regard.
I also see certain changes like offering games digitally and in retail from all three as a definite plus and I can see all three of them pushing that heavily (it's already happening).
The jist of what I'm trying to say is - all three need to adapt to what the industry is becoming and the demand for consoles will continue to be there.
Metalmurphy
Member
What was PS2 pull?
radioheadrule83
Banned
I have been really down on the Wii-U but I think it may actually do well in certain respects, and how well it does in sales probably depends on how the public values those particular functions.
I don't actually think things like NintendoLand are going to be the big sell, not even something like NSMB will be. It's going to be how the hardware changes the relationship with the television, and how the system embraces a Nintendo branded social network and makes talking about games the new game. How many of you spend more time on GAF than you do actually playing games? How many of you have picked up Song Pop lately, like you did Draw Something, just because you saw that friends were playing it via Facebook? Or because someone went out of their way to recommend it to you? That's actually going to be built in to Wii-U for every game. Trends, discussion, chat. Then there'll be general utility - easy web browsing, sharing pictures and video to the TV, being able to play the console as a sort-of handheld device. All of that is completely aside from whatever fun asymmetric experiences they can think up.
The question mark against that is probably - why are they creating a walled-in social experience around Wii-U itself? Why not embrace something like Facebook or Google+ and build that into their console? To that, I'd say -- it means they control the eco-system, they can make it accessible and user friendly (which will also mean kid friendly!)... it means people don't need to have their Facebook feeds littered with Nintendo game posts and begware. It becomes a refined gaming network, with very little redundancy. And who knows - when they launch their web app - they may actually allow you to find existing friends via existing social networks like FB, MySpace, Google etc. If they don't, there will be nothing stopping someone else from creating a third party app or site that connects the two. The more I think about it, the way they are handling the network and the Miiverse idea has a LOT of potential. Further positives seem to be happening with their push towards digital distribution, and their recent Q&A for investors and analysts even shows that they're not against the idea of exploiting F2P and other models.
As for the general health of the console market -- I think we are in an age where manufacturers have to justify their existence. He says that Sony will continue to create Uncharted and God of War quality games, but I think that will be hard to do if Sony suddenly finds that third parties don't need to pay them royalties any more. So its in Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft's best interests to keep giving gamers a reason to come to their console, or their portal. They'll do that through taking on publishing burdens, and making their machines do things that Smart TVs or streaming services never will. That'll be input based, it'll be based around innovations that maybe don't include a TV, that bend to emerging new lifestyles and trends...
It's hard to say if the manufacturers are up to that challenge, but I think one or two of them are. The biggest challenge will probably come when networks make streaming games more of a going concern. Once consumers taste the joys of gaming on a $50 network box (or on their existing smart TV), versus paying $300+ for a new console -- they're not going to want to do that anymore. The core will say that direct tangible gaming hardware will still be needed for their twitch-response games that demand the lowest latencies, but huge swathes of the public may be willing to make a trade off.
For me, the closure of online game servers, and games disappearing off of digital catalogues when companies go bust -- these are cautionary tales for customers in this industry. We are ever-embracing convenience, but one day it may emerge that games start going forgotten by time, services that we've paid for disappear, and streams start getting cut simply because they are not popular enough to keep running. We'll miss tangible discs and hardware when that happens, but there'll be no turning back.
I don't actually think things like NintendoLand are going to be the big sell, not even something like NSMB will be. It's going to be how the hardware changes the relationship with the television, and how the system embraces a Nintendo branded social network and makes talking about games the new game. How many of you spend more time on GAF than you do actually playing games? How many of you have picked up Song Pop lately, like you did Draw Something, just because you saw that friends were playing it via Facebook? Or because someone went out of their way to recommend it to you? That's actually going to be built in to Wii-U for every game. Trends, discussion, chat. Then there'll be general utility - easy web browsing, sharing pictures and video to the TV, being able to play the console as a sort-of handheld device. All of that is completely aside from whatever fun asymmetric experiences they can think up.
The question mark against that is probably - why are they creating a walled-in social experience around Wii-U itself? Why not embrace something like Facebook or Google+ and build that into their console? To that, I'd say -- it means they control the eco-system, they can make it accessible and user friendly (which will also mean kid friendly!)... it means people don't need to have their Facebook feeds littered with Nintendo game posts and begware. It becomes a refined gaming network, with very little redundancy. And who knows - when they launch their web app - they may actually allow you to find existing friends via existing social networks like FB, MySpace, Google etc. If they don't, there will be nothing stopping someone else from creating a third party app or site that connects the two. The more I think about it, the way they are handling the network and the Miiverse idea has a LOT of potential. Further positives seem to be happening with their push towards digital distribution, and their recent Q&A for investors and analysts even shows that they're not against the idea of exploiting F2P and other models.
As for the general health of the console market -- I think we are in an age where manufacturers have to justify their existence. He says that Sony will continue to create Uncharted and God of War quality games, but I think that will be hard to do if Sony suddenly finds that third parties don't need to pay them royalties any more. So its in Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft's best interests to keep giving gamers a reason to come to their console, or their portal. They'll do that through taking on publishing burdens, and making their machines do things that Smart TVs or streaming services never will. That'll be input based, it'll be based around innovations that maybe don't include a TV, that bend to emerging new lifestyles and trends...
It's hard to say if the manufacturers are up to that challenge, but I think one or two of them are. The biggest challenge will probably come when networks make streaming games more of a going concern. Once consumers taste the joys of gaming on a $50 network box (or on their existing smart TV), versus paying $300+ for a new console -- they're not going to want to do that anymore. The core will say that direct tangible gaming hardware will still be needed for their twitch-response games that demand the lowest latencies, but huge swathes of the public may be willing to make a trade off.
For me, the closure of online game servers, and games disappearing off of digital catalogues when companies go bust -- these are cautionary tales for customers in this industry. We are ever-embracing convenience, but one day it may emerge that games start going forgotten by time, services that we've paid for disappear, and streams start getting cut simply because they are not popular enough to keep running. We'll miss tangible discs and hardware when that happens, but there'll be no turning back.
AgentChris
Member
Awesome games?
Lactose_Intolerant
Member
not being upscaled to hd
My own spin on this is that it will change not die.
It will be more like a Roku/AppleTV. Blu Ray built in/attachment? maybe?
The blu ray part is that movie studios have stated that they believe and intend blu ray to be the last physical media format. BUT, as much as people say they want an online only option, there are still collectors that want to own. Not to mention Local media is still important when you consider servers downtime, hacks, power outages (at the provider end not the user end)
Personally I'm not yet sold on digital only media.
What if microsoft/sony/netflix/etc fold or become another company? Are your digital purchases/subscriptions still valid?
Before anyone tells me I'm stupid for thinking this way. Dish network is having issues with AMC. No madmen/walking dead etc. An online digital only service could mean, "hey those rockstar or EA games are in a legal dispute we are disabling your access to said games until a new contract is reviewed"
This is the other side of our digital future. Your content is held hostage.
It will be more like a Roku/AppleTV. Blu Ray built in/attachment? maybe?
The blu ray part is that movie studios have stated that they believe and intend blu ray to be the last physical media format. BUT, as much as people say they want an online only option, there are still collectors that want to own. Not to mention Local media is still important when you consider servers downtime, hacks, power outages (at the provider end not the user end)
Personally I'm not yet sold on digital only media.
What if microsoft/sony/netflix/etc fold or become another company? Are your digital purchases/subscriptions still valid?
Before anyone tells me I'm stupid for thinking this way. Dish network is having issues with AMC. No madmen/walking dead etc. An online digital only service could mean, "hey those rockstar or EA games are in a legal dispute we are disabling your access to said games until a new contract is reviewed"
This is the other side of our digital future. Your content is held hostage.
Kai Dracon
Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
I've said for a while that eventually complete convergence will happen because the technology will be so agnostic there will be no point in doing otherwise.
What causes controversy at the moment is that the specific tech and execution of these first generation living room tablet devices still has too many negative trade-offs for traditional gaming.
I still think the Wii U strategy is transitional. Nintendo already changing their image with the average person, not just gamers. Getting people to see Nintendo as having some relation to the portable tablet world, at least as people use tablets in the living room together.
That way, if necessary, they can just make the next device contained entirely within the tablet and sell an optional base station that connections to the television in whatever room you need it to.
Cheapest DVD player on the market
RoadHazard
Gold Member
Where in Europe do you live that has such bad broadband speeds? USA's broadband connections on the average seem pretty bad compared to what we've got here (Sweden), so to me it sounds like it'd be the other way around.
Regarding developing countries, sure, but do they even sell their consoles and games there? I honestly don't know, but it always seems like consoles are really only sold in NA, Europe and Japan + some other Asian countries.
Anyway, a streaming-only gaming future sounds terrible to me. I used to be a "I need to own physical games, dammit" kind of guy (I'm still that way with music - yes, I still buy CDs), and although I've since accepted Steam as a great game delivery service, streaming is just one step too many away from actually owning the games I buy. For renting games I could totally give it a shot, but when I buy something (which means I expect to be able to keep it forever, more or less) I want to actually get that thing (even if it's just in the form of a game installation on my HDD). Buying a game and then getting nothing but a video stream of it? No, that just doesn't sit right with me at all.
dream
Member
Right, but you have to concede that you're becoming the minority.
D
Deleted member 80556
Unconfirmed Member
I don't think they're going away. I think that there's always going to be a casual gaming market that will want a simplified way of gaming, and I think that consoles meet that demand. Unless a hardware manufacturer builds a dedicated gaming rig, I don't see consoles dying anytime soon. But that's just me.
Betta Lines
Member
A few years ago I thought the current gen would be the last. But when I began to realise how utterly shite the OS' were (nothing on Wii, and an afterthought on PS3), it became clear they needed one more attempt.
The timing is right, in terms of broadband uptake. 360 and PS3 were the trial runs for internet-based consoles. The next ones are the real deal, and there will be no reason to make another gen after that.
So I'm with Jaffe, expecting next gen to be the last. I kinda hope to be proved wrong, because I probably won't be at E3 2013 and I don't want that to be the last opportunity to get excited about new gaming hardware.
The timing is right, in terms of broadband uptake. 360 and PS3 were the trial runs for internet-based consoles. The next ones are the real deal, and there will be no reason to make another gen after that.
So I'm with Jaffe, expecting next gen to be the last. I kinda hope to be proved wrong, because I probably won't be at E3 2013 and I don't want that to be the last opportunity to get excited about new gaming hardware.
Game2Death
Banned
It's really that weird of an idea. I mean TV's are going to be incorporating either On-live or the other service into TV's in the next year or two.
Then the next batch of consoles will have some kind of streaming service definitely. Maybe not at launch, but eventually. So...if that happens. Either you buy this console that is coming out or you buy a TV with it installed already.
And it ten years when a lot of people have those TV's, and those you don't have the console that streams? Why ever need another console to build a new user base and lose money on when you have a huge user base that can possibly be endless in game play techniques and graphic capabilities?
Edit: I mean really thinking about it, let's say these consoles launch in 2013. Or one of them does. And they last 10 years. That's 2023. Not say what you will, but wifi and phone based steaming could easily be plug in-able to a tv and stream high quality content to you tv. I mean it's really not that far feteched to think that in 10 years a Windows Phone coudl stream Halo 10 to your tv and never need a console again.
UberTag
Member
Affordable DVD.
PS3's BluRay player was an attempt to mimic the PS2's success here but Sony failed to mirror the pricing philosophy.
At the time of the PS2s $299 launch, most DVD players weren't that affordable. If anything, they were more expensive.
HawksWinStanley
Member
And I have a feeling we're going to be hearing it again for at least the next two as well.
It's hard to say. There's been an increment in total consoles sold this generation compared to the last, and this generation still isn't over. The market is a different place, though. Apple has created a pretty big disruption.
Anyway, I feel if next-gen hardware "solves" the image quality problem we won't really need another one anyway, not for a very long time. Look how long this one has lasted, and how good the best-looking games still look(again, jaggies aside). I'm actually impressed by how capable the PS360 have proven themselves to be this late in the generational cycle.
OnLive hasn't exploded or done anything to confirm that it is the future, so that's yet to be seen. It makes sense on paper, but gaming isn't television, and latency will ruin your game time.
Anyway, I feel if next-gen hardware "solves" the image quality problem we won't really need another one anyway, not for a very long time. Look how long this one has lasted, and how good the best-looking games still look(again, jaggies aside). I'm actually impressed by how capable the PS360 have proven themselves to be this late in the generational cycle.
OnLive hasn't exploded or done anything to confirm that it is the future, so that's yet to be seen. It makes sense on paper, but gaming isn't television, and latency will ruin your game time.
Requesting nextbox and ps4 to go "all out" (making super expensive machines) is asking for those platforms to kill themselves because they will become to expensive for the current market, unless they have to sell them at extreme losses.
so asking for those to go all out would be the wrong thing to say if you want another generation of consoles after nextbox/ps4
227m~ 250m+ when all is said and done.
Yeah, sadly true. I was just answering his question.
LOL at pc.
Maybe the hardcore but I'm starting to regret my pc that i built a few years ago for gaming.
I took down my computer desk. moved the pc to next to the tv. Its just really an itunes server now, with some gaming. Some people are married to their xbl achievements, I'm married to my trophies and PS games. I even prefer hulu plus/netflix/amazon video on my ps3 over my pc.
What would I do for everything else?(surfing, forums etc).
iPad on a stand with a bluetooth keyboard.
Post PC world baby
opticalmace
Member
Wii U not a console now? I knew it was a controller!