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Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2012 (Dec 03 - Dec 09)

Acosta

Member
The issue is that people have to own a Vita in the first place.

Always so harsh jman :p One million+ have one already, that' something!

And while the "ps3 in handheld" format is not at sound argument in USA for example, when people prefer the TV experience for the console games, in Japan is something that could work. Here is a desirable PS3 game in your handheld, isn't that attractive for many Japanese users?

It's just a possibility, not claiming it to be the saviour of Vita, but I think the theory is not bad applied to the Japanese market.
 

jman2050

Member
And while the "ps3 in handheld" format is not at sound argument in USA for example, when people prefer the TV experience for the console games, in Japan is something that could work. Here is a desirable PS3 game in your handheld, isn't that attractive for many Japanese users?

Well current evidence over the past year points to "no"
 
Always so harsh jman :p One million+ have one already, that' something!

And while the "ps3 in handheld" format is not at sound argument in USA for example, when people prefer the TV experience for the console games, in Japan is something that could work. Here is a desirable PS3 game in your handheld, isn't that attractive for many Japanese users?

It's just a possibility, not claiming it to be the saviour of Vita, but I think the theory is not bad applied to the Japanese market.
I think the problem is it's not getting the right games to make it the PS3 successor. For that it needs mainline Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, Yakuza and Tales, not Jump Crossovers, Project Diva, One Piece and Legend of Heroes. If anything, it seems more to me like companies coming off PSP are seeing Vita fail to replace it and are splitting the difference with PS3 ports. Basically, Vita isn't taking over for PS3 but an attempt is being made for PS3+Vita to take over for PSP.
 
the difference is DCharlie is in Japan, going around shops and looking how things goes in real, you are watching a site from your PC in Italy

it was you that said "Amazon.jp sales are not important "? So now it becomes important ?

It's something similar when MH3 was released: after some weeks it was heavily discounted in some shops (note : "some", not "all") and people here got crazy.
I was in Japan in summer 2009 and i confirmed the situation, discount was made just is some shops (Sofmap the first one which comes to my mind), but it was real.

I can't understand why so much people are complaining what DCharlie said



ps : wanna know which 3DS game was the easiest to find last summer in used shops like Book-off ? that one listed at full price on Amazon.jp you mentioned above ;)

First, I've never ever said "Amazon.jp sales are not important". Never. It's not the first time you report something I never said, so please be the last time. I've always said, though, that some people give too much prediction power to Amazon rankings and Comgnet chart, and that's plain and true. That said, Amazon dynamics reflect well the agents behaviour in the markent, hence if it's true that a game is in the bargain bins at 1500yen (as it has been reported by the user we're talking about), it seems strange that on Amazon it's at its regular price; you know better than me than when a game bombs, the price cut is quite evidente on Amazon as well. Furthermore, Monster Hunter 3G is also selling very well with its Best Version, at a price that is way higher than the one reported by the user.

Secondly, I don't discard what the user say. I do appreciate when someone's living in Japan shares information about how things are going over there. But I'm not the only one who saw a certain bias in what the user reported, and one may have doubts. Since I'm not leaving in Japan (and many people are not here), I cannot find confirmation whether what is said is true, that's why I have to trust the user.

Third thing, big games have a big second-hand market. Is it a novelty? No. If you remember, some years ago Famitsu released the year-end chart of best selling games in the second-hand market and guess what? They were all popular games, that sold a quite big amount of units to begin with. There were successful games (DQIX -the game you were saying in all forums that it was DSi exclusive, remember?- and NSMB WIi), and less successful game / overshipped games, such as Monster Hunter Tri. Hence, it's not surprising for a game that sold almost 1.7 million units to be popular in used store.
 

Acosta

Member
Well current evidence over the past year points to "no"

How many PS3-Vita game have we seen this past year? Can't argue with reality, things are like they are, but I remain curious to see the effect of One Piece 2 in particular. I think it will be the bigger example if this strategy works or not.

I think the problem is it's not getting the right games to make it the PS3 successor. For that it needs mainline Metal Gear, Final Fantasy, Yakuza and Tales, not Jump Crossovers, Project Diva, One Piece and Legend of Heroes. If anything, it seems more to me like companies coming off PSP are seeing Vita fail to replace it and are splitting the difference with PS3 ports. Basically, Vita isn't taking over for PS3 but an attempt is being made for PS3+Vita to take over for PSP.

Probably, PS3+Vita makes it a bit more safe than jumping to PSVita alone so I think you are on point. I also agree that for this strategy to work Sony would need more heavyweights.
 
How many PS3-Vita game have we seen this past year? Can't argue with reality, things are like they are, but I remain curious to see the effect of One Piece 2 in particular. I think it will be the bigger example if this strategy works or not.
People are overestimating OPM2 a bit I think. It sold big, but I gather that reception was actually pretty negative. I think we might see a big drop overall, like we will with Hokuto Musou 2 shortly.

One Piece is also a franchise that seems to have a lot of pull with the younger crowd, which doesn't really work in Vita's favor (see: LBXW).

The only notable Japanese PS3/Vita multis or ports I can think of recently are MGS Collection, Mingol 6, Konami's baseball games and the Capcom fighters. All of which did significantly better on PS3.


Probably, PS3+Vita makes it a bit more safe than jumping to PSVita alone so I think you are on point. I also agree that for this strategy to work Sony would need more heavyweights.
The only problem is they'll need to provide a better migration path then 3DS comparatively. And the way things are in Japan right now, that's a pretty tall order.

Long term Sony also needs to worry about where to migrate the PS3 audience too. Will it go to Vita, to PS4 or will they lose it to Wii U?
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
Amazon dynamics reflect well the agents behaviour in the markent, hence if it's true that a game is in the bargain bins at 1500yen (as it has been reported by the user we're talking about), it seems strange that on Amazon it's at its regular price

I believe the price was 2980 yen first and then 1980 yen later - I think I have pictures of this too (I have a horrible tendency to take photos of all and sundry and throw it on my twitter feed - posters for games, games related figurines, game ads, new magazine covers etc)

If you search - you might see a post about how the price for MH went screaming back up recently because it suddenly became hard to find and then the WiiU game cross play announcement came - then we ended up with a second hand price of 4980 yen.

Obviously the rerelease has knocked the price back down but not back to where it went. And of course something not being similarly discounted on Amazon isn't a sign this isn't happening - stores need to attract gamers in too and sometimes Amazon doesn't react.
Charlie's observations are always sound, but he tends to screw the pooch on his predictions. I think even he'll admit that. He'll probably take flak forever over 800k, but I don't think there's any real overarching anti-Nintendo slant to his predictions either.

Yeah I haven't grasped the numbers thing yet! And I only tend to pop in for the big releases. That said, my revised 480k for hardware might not be too bad - 280k was obviously dumb and I admitted that the day after making the prediction.
 

Kandinsky

Member
So are we expecting a 70k vita kinda drop for WiiU's second week?

Also holy shit at ppl being so defensive about this stuff, leave DCharlie alone!
 

Dalthien

Member
<20% sellthrough for many of these titles doesn't bode well.

Except that many of those titles only shipped 10-15k in total anyway. With the 4 biggest weeks of the year still ahead, retailers will only be left sitting on a few thousand units of each title come January. They'll be left sitting on the same number of units for dozens of other titles as well come January.

If there were several titles sitting at <20% sellthrough that shipped 100k+, then there would definitely be a problem. Some retailers getting a little overzealous at launch and ordering 15k instead of 10k isn't an issue.
 
Except that many of those titles only shipped 10-15k in total anyway. With the 4 biggest weeks of the year still ahead, retailers will only be left sitting on a few thousand units of each title come January. They'll be left sitting on the same number of units for dozens of other titles as well come January.

If there were several titles sitting at <20% sellthrough that shipped 100k+, then there would definitely be a problem. Some retailers getting a little overzealous at launch and ordering 15k instead of 10k isn't an issue.

Yeah, I was thinking the same. The sell-through must be considered in relative terms. If a software house overships a +500k it might be a problem; if it overship a +10k, what does it mean? That there are on average 5-10 units in each stores sitting on the shelves? Holiday approaching and the fact that the hardware is new, should help selling those games.
 

Dalthien

Member
Charlie's observations are always sound, but he tends to screw the pooch on his predictions. I think even he'll admit that.

Yeah, I thoroughly enjoy hearing Charlie's observations from Japan. And he comes at it from the perspective of a true gamer - he doesn't care about any particular company.

But yeah, his predictions leave a lot to be desired - ha ha. And his two highest profile turds (MH3G and WiiU) were both way low for Nintendo systems - to the point of being absurd. That's where he gets a bit of rep as being anti-Nintendo (even though he's not). He's just been lucky enough to not make any absurdly low Sony predictions yet.


The Sega diehard JGAFer who really seems to have recentered his vitriol on Nintendo exclusively in a dead serious manner is jonnyram.

I'm still going with the pod-people got him.
 
Except that many of those titles only shipped 10-15k in total anyway. With the 4 biggest weeks of the year still ahead, retailers will only be left sitting on a few thousand units of each title come January. They'll be left sitting on the same number of units for dozens of other titles as well come January.

If there were several titles sitting at <20% sellthrough that shipped 100k+, then there would definitely be a problem. Some retailers getting a little overzealous at launch and ordering 15k instead of 10k isn't an issue.
The other thing is it's not unusual for launch games to move ~5x 1st week over time. DS, PSP, 3DS, PS3, Wii and even Vita launches have examples of that. Titles like ZombiU, Tekken or Musou being 25-50k come a couple months from now isn't really too far a stretch, though it'll happen outside the top 30 so we won't know until we get the white papers.

Not great results no, but these games aren't done at 5-10k after a week either.
 

Hobby

Member

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I don't know where he's getting his numbers from, or how this stacks up with NPD leaks, but an editor for Nikkei in a blog article states that 3DS's cumulative sales for the period of April to September overseas (guessing he means Europe + Americas combined) was 4.25 million.

Sales overseas for 3DS also supposedly dropped 30% in November compared to 2011.

http://blog.esuteru.com/archives/6807972.html

http://www.nikkei.com/markets/kigyo/editors.aspx?g=DGXNMSGD13025_13122012000000&df=1

That's confirmed since we have official NPD numbers since last week :p
 
I don't know where he's getting his numbers from, or how this stacks up with NPD leaks, but an editor for Nikkei in a blog article states that 3DS's cumulative sales for the period of April to September overseas (guessing he means Europe + Americas combined) was 4.25 million.

Sales overseas for 3DS also supposedly dropped 30% in November compared to 2011.

http://blog.esuteru.com/archives/6807972.html

http://www.nikkei.com/markets/kigyo/editors.aspx?g=DGXNMSGD13025_13122012000000&df=1

NPD numbers had 3DS down 32% YOY, so that sounds accurate.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
PSO2 Vita is such an illconcieved release. The platform's floundering worldwide, it's lacking the genre king (which is on *every* other system currently), and the nature of the game itself (online connected only) is totally at odds with the nature of handheld gaming (portable/untethered, local multiplayer driven). Sega really would've been better off investing in console ports than this and doing a handheld specific PSO project instead like PS0 or the PSP series.
I like that Sega takes this chance. There isnt any other portable MMORPGs that are linked directly to the main game (PC version), so there isnt really anything to look at for historical success or failure. The idea of being able to grind/play "everywhere" (where wifi is available) could be a great idea, and going Free To Play is also a good thing. Only time will tell how successful it will be.
 
I like that Sega takes this chance. There isnt any other portable MMORPGs that are linked directly to the main game (PC version), so there isnt really anything to look at for historical success or failure. The idea of being able to grind/play "everywhere" (where wifi is available) could be a great idea, and going Free To Play is also a good thing. Only time will tell how successful it will be.

Is it a great idea to release an unproven genre on handheld, instead of making the sequel of one of the best selling games ever for the company in Japan?
 
I like that Sega takes this chance. There isnt any other portable MMORPGs that are linked directly to the main game (PC version), so there isnt really anything to look at for historical success or failure. The idea of being able to grind/play "everywhere" (where wifi is available) could be a great idea, and going Free To Play is also a good thing. Only time will tell how successful it will be.
PSO2 isn't really an MMORPG, it's just an online ARPG. And even DS had those (PS0 in fact), some even were crossplayable with other versions too (FFCC EOT DS/Wii).

Doing something more thoughtful that makes more sense for the platform (like PSP3), or doing PSO2 ports for more logically appropriate platforms (PS3, 360, Wii U) would be better than this. But what can you do, Sega gonna Sega. :/
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
The problem with PSO2 vita is it's an online game on a machine that is mostly going to be tied to your home wireless lan. Which , okay, "off PC" play and comfy sofa's but what we'll end up with is a game that a core of PSO fans will play whilst carrying their pocket Wifi units.

I mean - i'm all in for it and i will be playing with my pocket wifi - but as a game that would be free to download on Vita anyways, i'm not sure many people are going to rush out to buy the Packaged version.

So , yeah, if the Vita somehow had full on LTE+ online on all units no matter where in Japan so you could play online no matter where - fine - it might really take off, but at the moment there's just that extra hop required to make it appeal so it's going to be -extremely- niche as a packaged game. (not heres the horrible numbers part prediction) 12k or so
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Is it a great idea to release an unproven genre on handheld, instead of making the sequel of one of the best selling games ever for the company in Japan?
I can see the appeal from the gaming perspective eventhough i personally i have no interest in MMORPGs, so in that regards in can see it as a great idea. If it is a great idea financially, i have no idea because there isnt much to compare it to. That is exactly why i like that Sega takes this chance =) They could also make a Phantasy Star Portable sequel as well later on, i dont think that PSO2 Vita puts any stop for this.


PSO2 isn't really an MMORPG, it's just an online ARPG. And even DS had those (PS0 in fact), some even were crossplayable with other versions too (FFCC EOT DS/Wii).

Doing something more thoughtful that makes more sense for the platform (like PSP3), or doing PSO2 ports for more logically appropriate platforms (PS3, 360, Wii U) would be better than this. But what can you do, Sega gonna Sega. :/
I see. How is it different from i.e World of Warcraft? Cant you go around and interact with many other people, preform guilds and doing quests together etc. in PSO2? Cool, i didnt know about FFCC EOT.

It is fully possible that going a more safer route could be better, but i like that Sega tries this at least. It shall be interesting to see how successful it will be.


The problem with PSO2 vita is it's an online game on a machine that is mostly going to be tied to your home wireless lan. Which , okay, "off PC" play and comfy sofa's but what we'll end up with is a game that a core of PSO fans will play whilst carrying their pocket Wifi units.

I mean - i'm all in for it and i will be playing with my pocket wifi - but as a game that would be free to download on Vita anyways, i'm not sure many people are going to rush out to buy the Packaged version.

So , yeah, if the Vita somehow had full on LTE+ online on all units no matter where in Japan so you could play online no matter where - fine - it might really take off, but at the moment there's just that extra hop required to make it appeal so it's going to be -extremely- niche as a packaged game. (not heres the horrible numbers part prediction) 12k or so
Yeah, i'm not expecting much sales of the phyiscal retail version, but i hope for Sega's sake that they will have success overall with this (maybe it leads to increase in-game purchases). It shall be interesting to see the result.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
If it is a great idea financially, i have no idea because there isnt much to compare it to. That is exactly why i like that Sega takes this chance =) They could also make a Phantasy Star Portable sequel as well later on, i dont think that PSO2 Vita puts any stop for this.



I see. How is it different from i.e World of Warcraft? Cant you go around and interact with many other people, preform guilds and doing quests together etc. in PSO2? Cool, i didnt know about FFCC EOT.

It is fully possible that going a more safer route could be better, but i like that Sega tries this at least. It shall be interesting to see how successful it will be.



Yeah, i'm not expecting much sales of the package goods, but i hope for Sega's sake that they will have success overall with this. It shall be interesting to see the result.

I forget what is the advantage to consumer to buying the game outside of PS02 on the go. because outside of something I'm missing maybe in the way of in-game rewards etcw hy are consumers paying money to play a likely inferior version of a free game on they're computers.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
I forget what is the advantage to consumer to buying the game outside of PS02 on the go. because outside of something I'm missing maybe in the way of in-game rewards etcw hy are consumers paying money to play a likely inferior version of a free game on they're computers.
They dont have to buy it, the Vita version is free to play as well. The package version contains extra stuff that can be used in the game, but you dont have to buy this to play the game. It will be possible to download the game for free from the PS Store. The appeal lies mostly in the portability aspect.
 

Road

Member
I don't know where he's getting his numbers from, or how this stacks up with NPD leaks, but an editor for Nikkei in a blog article states that 3DS's cumulative sales for the period of April to September overseas (guessing he means Europe + Americas combined) was 4.25 million.

Sales overseas for 3DS also supposedly dropped 30% in November compared to 2011.

http://blog.esuteru.com/archives/6807972.html

http://www.nikkei.com/markets/kigyo/editors.aspx?g=DGXNMSGD13025_13122012000000&df=1

I don't know what numbers the guy who wrote the Nikkei article is seeing.

He claims 2.91 million 3DS sold in Japan from Apr. to Sep. according to Media Create, but the weekly numbers say 2 million. And I'm not sure how 4.25 million 3DS were sold outside Japan from Apr. to Sep. when Nintendo has shipped only 3.88 million since January.
 
They dont have to buy it, the Vita version is free to play as well. The package version contains extra stuff that can be used in the game, but you dont have to buy this to play the game. The appeal lies mostly in the portability aspect.
But how much value is there really in "portable play" if you have to be tethered to a WiFi connection and there's no local multiplayer? That's why this game seems so weird to me, it's totally at odds with the platform it's on?
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
They dont have to buy it, the Vita version is free to play as well. The package version contains extra stuff that can be used in the game, but you dont have to buy this to play the game. It will be possible to download the game for free from the PS Store. The appeal lies mostly in the portability aspect.

Yeah but it costs money to bring this thing to retail, if they ship too few to reach the demand economies of scale would probably make it worthless, ship too much and the stocks gotta go somewhere. You don't just put something in retail just for the sake of it. Unless theres some sort of incentive seems like a pretty bad idea. Games don't sell particularily well in general on the vita anyway paying money for a free game that's portable sounds like sending it to die, unless there is another incentive.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
But how much value is there really in "portable play" if you have to be tethered to a WiFi connection and there's no local multiplayer? That's why this game seems so weird to me, it's totally at odds with the platform it's on?
It depends on where you live and how widely available wifi is. Not everyone plays their portable systems on the go either. Personally i've played all my handheld system primiarily at home. This is something subjective however, only time will tell what the general market will think about it.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
I don't know what numbers the guy who wrote the Nikkei article is seeing.

He claims 2.91 million 3DS sold in Japan from Apr. to Sep. according to Media Create, but the weekly numbers say 2 million. And I'm not sure how 4.25 million 3DS were sold outside Japan from Apr. to Sep. when Nintendo has shipped only 3.88 million since January.

Probably the guy was an analyst paid by Iwata himself :lol

Seriously, what's up with these non real numbers? XD
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
But how much value is there really in "portable play" if you have to be tethered to a WiFi connection and there's no local multiplayer? That's why this game seems so weird to me, it's totally at odds with the platform it's on?

well, pocket wifi's are pretty popular but i still think the overlap of PSO fans + Pocket Wifi + Vita is going to be extremely low

If you are really into PSO2 then i can see why the ability to play it anywhere would appeal and the fact it's free will help - but it just seems a tough sell.

unless there is another incentive.

lots of IAP in PSO2 ? I guess their idea is to get it on every platform there is and tie it all to your one PSO account? (there's already an iphone spin off already for instance).
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
I am not so sure as some of you that the PS3-Vita games will have low numbers by default in Vita. In PSP-PSVita case, sure, they are both portable, PSP has a much bigger userbase and the graphical difference won't be so high, so I can see PSP stealing the thunder. But I think Vita users will find valuable to have something like One Piece 2 on the go. I think it´s a strategy that can work, depending of the game.

Hot Shots Golf 6 a PS3 late port outsold Vita version after 2 weeks. There won't be neither one Vita game that won't pale in comparison to PS3 sales.

PS3/PSV ports won't save Vita (but they'll keep it in life support).
 
It depends on where you live and how widely available wifi is. Not everyone plays their portable systems on the go either. Personally i've played all my handheld system primiarily at home. This is something subjective however, only time will tell what the general market will think about it.
Sure, but if you're playing mostly at home wouldn't ports to the HD triplets make more sense anyway?
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Yeah but it costs money to bring this thing to retail, if they ship too few to reach the demand economies of scale would probably make it worthless, ship too much and the stocks gotta go somewhere. You don't just put something in retail just for the sake of it. Unless theres some sort of incentive seems like a pretty bad idea. Games don't sell particularily well in general on the vita anyway paying money for a free game that's portable sounds like sending it to die, unless there is another incentive.
Sure, there are extra stuff that is included in the retail copy that you wont get for downloading the free version from the PS Store :) Here is what you get if you buy the retail copy:

"The &#8220;Special Package&#8221; version of the game will include two costume sets, three weapon sets, a Mag evolution device, ornament stickers, a music disc, a 30-day premium set, and a FUN1000 acquisition ticket."


Sure, but if you're playing mostly at home wouldn't ports to the HD triplets make more sense anyway?
It depends on how you prefer to play. For me, i can variate, depending on game to game. I'm currently playing Sega Allstars Racing Transformed on the Vita eventhough that i could play the console version instead, because i like just being able to pick up a smaller device and sit anywhere i want :) This is also what i like about the WiiU, the playing-on-the-controller thing, it could be a big selling point for many who likes portability and play mostly in their homes.
 

Road

Member
It seems the first day sell-through numbers are public again.

Inazuma Eleven Go 2: 20%~30%
Toriko 3DS: ~20%
Powerful Baseball 2012 Ketteiban: ~20%
Romance of the Three Kingdoms PS3: ~40%
Romance of the Three Kingdoms Wii U: dead

You may scream "bomba" now.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMBAAAAAAAAAAAA.

Edit:

So, what kind of options does Level 5 have going forward?

Their current strategies clearly aren't working.
 
It seems the first day sell-through numbers are public again.

Inazuma Eleven Go 2: 20%~30%
Toriko 3DS: ~20%
Powerful Baseball 2012 Ketteiban: ~20%
Romance of the Three Kingdoms PS3: ~40%
Romance of the Three Kingdoms Wii U: dead

You may scream "bomba" now.

What platform is baseball and inazuma on, ps3?
 

DCharlie

And even i am moderately surprised
So, what kind of options does Level 5 have going forward?

two1_gallery.jpg
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Probably, another case of Level 5 doing a very big shipment. And this actually IS a title which can sell greatly in the weekend, given its target audience.
 

Road

Member
How much was first day sell through with the first Go?

From the same blog, about 25%.

(Official) Media Create number now. First week shipment was about 414k, first week sell-through was 33%. By April, it managed to sell its first week shipment (418k LTD).

Famitsu numbers from June are over 435k. So, they either managed to finally ship more later on or there was actually a left over stock from a fast second week shipment.
 
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