So you know what SmokeyDave meant? I wish I had your ESP powers. Both the WiiU and the Vita are similar to what he suggested.
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Nintendo FY13: $70M Net Income; WiiU 3.45M, NDS retires, 3DS/WiiU miss expectations
- Thread starter Parmenides
- Start date
So you know what SmokeyDave meant? I wish I had your ESP powers. Both the WiiU and the Vita are similar to what he suggested.
Nightstick11
Banned
Well, two myths are put to rest:
(1) The Wii was not a "fad"
(2) The 3DS is not "failing"
(1) The Wii was not a "fad"
(2) The 3DS is not "failing"
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
How could Bloomberg be so far off?
Wickerbasket
Member
That's why there's a lot of use of the word "could" in what you quoted, nothing's set in stone yet and there's lots of factors to take into account.
It's definitely going to be exciting after E3.
"I'm sorry, your phone number and contacts are tied to the WiiPhone system you purchased. You'll need a police report showing your phone was stolen and then maybe we'll move them to a new phone if we feel like it. Thanks for being a loyal Nintendo customer!"
grimshawish
Banned
michaelius
Banned
Ninja Scooter
Member
Fad does sound like a crazy word to use for something that lasted 6 years, but I think the reason people use it is because as successful as it was, it didn't build any sort of loyalty in its owners. They just moved on to the next hot thing. In a way, Nintendo made a deal with the devil with the Wii. They tapped a market that was incredibly lucrative and that had been ignored by other video game companies in the past, but that is also a market that is not loyal and is incredibly fickle in their tastes. This market did not translate over to the Wii U at all and are probably a lot harder, if not impossible to win back because they are not enthusiasts gamers.
Wickerbasket
Member
Why would a company want to make their loses appear to be double using accounting tricks?They didn't include accounting tricks in their prediction
michaelius
Banned
I assumed he is talking about net profit vs loses predicted
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
No, we've had this conversation in multiple topics because a lot of people feel this is the obvious direction/path to take.
Vita cannot function as a home console due to no AV out, WiiU cannot function as a portable since it can't leave the house. Thus neither is a true hybrid and still their own thing.
With a WiiU final sale total figure in mind in maybe 3-4 years time, GC managed 21 million with some pretty fucking insane price drops, below average third party support (compared to zilch), and a weaker Microsoft. Iwata's pledging to more than double WiiU sales going forward and reach 9 million by March 2014, but a 7 million goal seems more realistic and even hard to achieve when you can already write off both April and May (and possibly June) from WiiU's fortunes. All this said and done, I could see WiiU coming in at 16-18 million when the plug is unceremoniously pulled, and even thats gonna be a real fucking fight.
Wickerbasket
Member
I thought he was talking about Bloombergs operating loss prediction vs actual.
Tough to believe it could do that badly. Current sales certainly suggest it, but it's possible that Nintendo's big series that didn't help the Gamecube out that much are more popular now because of the Wii.
Do we expect significant improvements with Wonderful 101 in July and Pikmin 3 in August? Both seem to be more like niche titles.
Aquamarine
Member
Bloomberg wasn't "a prediction," it was the average of the predictions from various analysts.
Many (including me) thought Nintendo would meet their FY projections. That was a totally reasonable assumption. Apparently Nintendo can't even hit that.
...They did indeed know what I meant. Sorry man.
The Vita doesn't have a TV out and can't be controlled with a DualShock (I miss you PSP Go!), the Wii-U tablet can't be 'undocked' and taken out of the house.
The device that solves both of these problems will be a beautiful piece of kit indeed. Nintendo are best poised to take advantage of such a thing and stand the most to gain from consolidating their hardware.
That probably isn't far from the truth though. Sigh.
Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew
Banned
I'm not pretending, nor defending. I thought they stated there will be no profit for Nintendo this year. If they stated what you're saying then I guess I'll rest the case.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
I'm expecting Nintendo to Excitebots/Sega Saturn something new/big-ish at E3 for quick release in July/August (Retro?), Wind Waker in September, Mario 3D around October, Kart in Nov/Dec.
Fuck knows what that leaves to fall out the door that'd shift sales in 2014. Smash I guess? Maybe a super rushed Zelda? I dunno what the long game here is. Pokemon MMO/Moba? Theres no RE4 going to be coming this time around and even that had no effect on GC's fortunes.
grimshawish
Banned
Very low predictions Pie. I'd say 30-60 Million. Large area but IDK what the future holds.
Nintendo isn't coming off a downward trajectory, their brands were strengthened over the Wii era and I feel they
You are basically predicting that beyond last year and this year the WiiU will only sell another 6-8 million. Very harsh and I think using the Gamecube price is flawed as evidently its low price failed to make it relevant anyway.
I think the main competition will be the 3DS. Do I buy a WiiU or put that money to 3DS games?
But I still think at the start of this gen people will be surprised at the second round of support this Christmas from everyone but EA.
They won't pull the plug anyway. Thats really reaching.
-------------------------------
However if the 3DS gets 70-100M when all is said and done. And the Wii U is at 30-60M. A hybrid just seems like the way forward.
Next 3DS will be coming up to WiiU levels and without a major upgrade in TV resolutions - there just isn't much reason for Nintendo software in particular to need a major visual boost. But I guess we'll see.
It feels to me Nintendo is already going in that direction. If we look at tablets vs computers - maybe the market overall is.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Maybe I'm being harsh and it will match Gamecube a little more closely after "the games" arrive and spike things dramatically (to make 22-23 lifetime achievable), but where would you be placing the 10 million+ for your minimum? Hope that residual Wii memories will give way to Mario Kart pushing hardware like never before?
Price is the thing though isn't it as well. Nintendo managed to shift that many GC's because they hit such an insane impulse buy early on, it became an easy secondary console to scoop up for the Mario, Zelda, Metroid, RE party. Nintendo can't go that low for probably at least another 2-3 years, all while PS3 and X360 occupy the even lower space and new consoles take mindshare.
Obviously my predictions don't account for some Pokemon level new property to save the day, or another cat out the bag like Brain Training, but I don't think the GamePad is ever going to provide that "a-ha!!!" turnaround moment.
Price is the thing though isn't it as well. Nintendo managed to shift that many GC's because they hit such an insane impulse buy early on, it became an easy secondary console to scoop up for the Mario, Zelda, Metroid, RE party. Nintendo can't go that low for probably at least another 2-3 years, all while PS3 and X360 occupy the even lower space and new consoles take mindshare.
Obviously my predictions don't account for some Pokemon level new property to save the day, or another cat out the bag like Brain Training, but I don't think the GamePad is ever going to provide that "a-ha!!!" turnaround moment.
It's soooo obvious... the impact .99 cent and F2P games have had on the industry in general... just compare 3DS to Wii U... cost of software (Wii U jump to even at a $20 difference.. the demographic as well... the whole "console/traditional" video gaming market is suffering.. less and less people want to play and pay for "premium games" scary stuff...
edit..
and if you don't believe this to be true.. just go back and you will find TONS of quotes from Iwatta about how the experience of console/portable (3DS) games are different and warrant the price difference...
edit..
and if you don't believe this to be true.. just go back and you will find TONS of quotes from Iwatta about how the experience of console/portable (3DS) games are different and warrant the price difference...
grimshawish
Banned
I think they will have a bumpy release schedule and moderate successes here and there; worldwide I just think we can assume some positive bumps here and there that should drive sales up.
Their main audience will be kids but yeah I'll admit my 'predictions' do maybe depend on a wider hit. I think we'll see a good holiday for them this year then a few releases next. Reason I have a high upper prediction is based on how much it becomes an alternative device and the cost compared to PS4/720 systems.
Gamecube struggled to the degree it did just because the PS2 was all consuming. I actually think whilst a great fan of the gamecube, Nintendo's skill in making 3D games has vastly improved and their more competitive, even at a higher price point (though this will have to drop over the years).
Maybe I have too much confidence in their releases. Certainly I didn't think the delays to be this crushingly bad.
If WiiU has a 3DS style 2012 release schedule every year then it'll be closer to your predictions than my minimum.
18m for 3ds might be too tall an order. it did 14m over the last year with only nsmb2 and the 3ds xl. it seems that software prices are coming down, and they have some big games planned throughout the year. a price drop to $130 for the normal 3ds and $160 for the xl would probably make 260k+ months a reality for the handheld, especially once games start hitting. it did well in march, but that was off the back of some great deals, and less about fire emblem and luigi's mansion pushing units.
Did it? How much did it sell at retail? I agree it's probably less, but we don't know that for sure.
grimshawish
Banned
360 will pass Wii in the US. But it'll still be at 80M or so, after which it'll lose ground to both the PS4, 720 and yes WiiU if Nintendo.
Meanwhile WW it has no sales in Japan, but in Europe it'll just be killed by the PS3/PS4; whilst in the UK sales won't be enough to bring it up to 100M with Wii.
So its pretty doubtful, unless we are talking some pretty crazy holds each year but the 360 is already seeing big hardware drops year on year.
michaelius
Banned
360 has a fair chance of passing 100 milions and with Sony iron grip of emerging markets it's safe bet to say PS3 will be there too.
Starfish Hero
Member
They can't. Their sales are already starting to show fatigue, and the last hurrah for software is this holiday season (some might even argue that it was last holiday season judging by the mediocre sales of both GoWs). They'll both be dead this time next year.
Based on what? Both systems are down YOY.
PS3 eventually will. It's due a price cut and it'll remain on the market for the next 5 years or so. 100 million is essentially guaranteed for it.
grimshawish
Banned
It didn't.
Japan YTD: 226,960 [http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=534063]
NPD Jan: 57k [http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=513443]
NPD Feb: 66k [http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=524145]
NPD March: 67K [http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=54512154&postcount=1706]
Total: 416,960
Not including Europe - only Japan is up to 31 March only; but I think we can assume that with European sales its above those shipment numbers either way.
The markets we used to call emerging markets are no longer 'emerging' they emerged years ago. Wish people would stop just scrawling emerging markets on Sony sales threads.
Fucking hell - we have disappearing markets in Europe these days. They've been contributing to sales all gen and will continue to contribute to the decline of sales.
PS3 has an upper price barrier anyway.
Both systems are still doing 10 million + a year. Even if they drop 50% YOY now (which is highly unlikely) they´re easily going to reach the 100 million. There is still a lot of room for pricecuts too.
I can see a $99 360 and a $149 PS3 happening. The PS2 sold like 40 million units after the PS3 launched. The PS2 could only play games, the PS3 and 360 having media functionality will improve the tail.
I think they will both get to 90 million easy. The last 10-15 million might be a streach but I think it's possible.
grimshawish
Banned
I can buy dirt cheap media devices these days.
360/PS3 have been out too long and the market is saturated with cheap tech devices.
Their just not going to make much headway.
Starfish Hero
Member
If the PS4 and 720 have remotely competent launches, PS3 and 360 will not have graceful declines.
Spirit Icana
Member
And to some people, the New Super Mario Bros. games are a series that only sells when there is already a huge install base in place and it can't sell systems. Yeah right.
The problem with NSMB U and 2 is that they've been rehashing from this DS title for too long.
NSMB was actually brand spankin NEW (well oldschool, but you get my point) when it came out. Now they need to ditch the flag poles, throw away the current assests, and put in a better effort with the production values.
I await the next real NEW Super Mario Bros. and maybe it can break that 20 million figure and then some. Remind the Call of Duty games who that other killer quality app is.
They have a chance I agree, but it's more likely 360 will finish in the 90 - 95m range tbh.
Unless MS intervene to push it further (this is where the 360 mini perhaps comes in) We'll see.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
PS3 hasn't even hit $199 yet. It has a lot of sales potential left in it.
Why shouldn´t they? They appeal to totally different gaming audiences and both will still get third party support for many years.
Starfish Hero
Member
NSMB games have legs. I have no doubt NSMB2 can clear 20 million by the end of the 3DS's life. NSMBU depends entirely on the Wii U's success, but it already has a pretty crazy attach rate.
Nightstick11
Banned
I think this is too unrealistic. It merely extrapolates the data for the Wii U's first six months and expands it over a generation. The 360 and the PS3 had (historically for their time) amazingly horrible launches, but they ended up healthy.
Considering that Nintendo unleashes a cat or two out of the bag each generation (maybe they'll all be for 3DS and not Wii U, who knows), I think a 15 million total for the generation is about as likely as 100 million.
That depends on how fast the US an UK are going to drop the 360 after the 720 hits (and how expensive it´s going to be), but i think with the ongoing third party support and a price in the 99- 150 $ region this thing could have extremely long legs.
PS3 will reach 100 million from Europe alone. I don't know what you're thinking the PS4 is going to launch at, but it's not going to be cheap. Even with high fiscal targets for the system, PS3 will continue selling at a lower price. This will be done regardless of whether the PS4 has a good launch or not, as the system still has selling power. Wait until you see the this years fiscal target for the PS3. Even when PS4 is out later this year, and they're setting a fiscal target next year, it'll still be around 10 million. The system will hit 100 million 2-3 years from now comfortably. It's not going anywhere now since it's making some money.
Starfish Hero
Member
The 360 and PS3 will not get third party support for many years. Developers have been ready to move on to next gen for awhile now. As I said: this holiday season will be the last hurrah of current gen. The 360 and PS3 will get some downports throughout 2014, but notable third party support will be all but done after this year.
Wickerbasket
Member
Yup, it's one of those games that doesn't push people to buy the system but that most people will buy once they already own the system. It'll definitely have long legs, especially if there are software droughts during the consoles lifetime.
PSone continued to do well despite the PS2's success. In fact, the PSone might have been more successful post PS2 launch than the GameCube or XBOX.