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[Parmenides]

PS1 was not showing nearly as much fatigue as current gen and sales still halved from FY99 to FY00 when the PS2 was on the horizon.

The PS3 will likely overtake the PS1 in US+CAN.That's all you need to know.

Needless to say,the PS1 shot all its bullets early in the cycle,so it was completely exhausted in FY 2000 (the emerging markets kept the platform alive).The gap will be quite large at the end of the PS3's life cycle (20m -30m)

HARDWARE (Unit:Million)

                                       
FY        PS1        FY        PS3 

1994      1.0        2006      3.5      

1995      3.30       2007      9.1        

1996      9.20       2008      10.1         

1997      19.37      2009      13.0     
 !                    !                   
SRP  $149/¥18,000    SRP  $299/¥29,980   
     (March 1998)         (March 2010)        


1998      21.6       2010      14.3             

1999      18.5       2011      13.9         
                                          
2000      9.31       2012        ?                    
 !                    !                   
SRP  $99/¥15,000    SRP  $269/¥24,980   
     (March 2001)         (March 2013)

FY 2012: PS3/PS2 Unit Sales (Unit: Million)

Hardware      Ap-Jn     Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr     FY        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FY 2012        2.8       3.5      6.8       -       13.1      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PS2 discontinued in FY 2012

The next gen hardware launches will kill any momentum current gen consoles have left (which isn't much).

Yearly sales of the PS3 and PS2 are very close at this point,and the Xbox 360 sells 10 million/year


FY 2006: PS2 Unit Sales (Unit: Million)

Hardware      Ap-Jn     Jl-Sp    Oc-Dc    Ja-Mr     FY        
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FY 2006        2.3       3.4      6.7      2.4      14.8      
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SRP  $129/¥16,000

The only time this didn't happen was the PS2 and DS, and that's because they were both still juggernauts going into their successors launches. Neither the 360 or PS3 have that kind of momentum.

the PS2 looks like a midget next to the PS360 (~ 23 million in FY 2012)

The 360 and PS3 will not get third party support for many years. Developers have been ready to move on to next gen for awhile now.

2013-2014 PS360 -> GTA,MGS,FF,AC,TLOU,Battlefield,Saints Row,Destiny,Watch Dogs,Evil Within,Beyond,Sengoku Basara,Dark Souls...

2007-2008 PS2 -> GOW,Persona,Musou,sports/family games

2001-2002 PS1 -> sports/family games

 

[Saint Gregory]

microsoft and sony are both actually making big media boxes. microsoft in particular seems to be pushing for this. sony says the system is so powerful because it's all about games, but i think there's more. sony was very smart to build hype among the most hype-able people out there: nerds on the internet. it gets the buzz going before sony ever has to talk about motion controls and hulu.

That isn't really a change in strategy, it's just an continuation of the ambitions that both companies have for selling media content. Because of the rise in smartphones I imagine that both MS and Sony see a big possible market for what's essentially a smartphone in your living room, providing you with any information or entertainment that you need in one device. I'm really not sure if the market has demonstrated a need for this yet, as indicated by Apple and Google's failures so far to make these kinds of devices popular, but maybe it's still just been too soon.

Sony's PS4 campaign has been brilliant so far, both in terms of building awareness and hype, but that hasn't been a problem for them in the past. The PS3 also had a fair bit of momentum going for it leading up to E3 '06 and when the dust settled after the event that momentum fizzled greatly. I think that whatever the big 3 do with their E3 presentations this year fans of all three camps will be excited for the future but I still don't see a positive future for them in the market unless they do more to broaden the appeal of these machines to the general public. That's going to mean low entry prices and broad selections of game types, not just the typical shooter, shooter, action game combo that we've seen so far.

 

[perfectchaos007]

That's shipped numbers...is it not? Still isn't good.

That's why, in the end, it doesn't matter if a company uses shipped or sold numbers so long as they are consistent in reporting. For example, Nintendo's shipped numbers looked great over the holidays, but since so many units went unsold, retailers weren't asking for more shipments, so the "sold" numbers in Q1 may have actually been greater than the shipped numbers. It all evens out in the long run.

 

[big youth]

It doesn't even out, shipped numbers are always significantly higher than sold numbers

 

[Darryl]

Not really.

Nintendo sure is losing a lot of money for a company with a money printer.

3DS software development costs cannot be that high. NSMB2 has earned enough dough itself to warrant the budget of a major MMO. the company is bleeding money because of low Wii U sales and high development costs in preparation for Wii U software.

 

[frankie_baby]

The 360 and PS3 will not get third party support for many years. Developers have been ready to move on to next gen for awhile now. As I said: this holiday season will be the last hurrah of current gen. The 360 and PS3 will get some downports throughout 2014, but notable third party support will be all but done after this year.

developers will go where the money is, non first party or non moneyhatted orbango exclusives will be a rarity for some time to come

 

[big youth]

3DS software development costs cannot be that high. NSMB2 has earned enough dough itself to warrant the budget of a major MMO. the company is bleeding money because of low Wii U sales and high development costs in preparation for Wii U software.

I really doubt those are the reasons. Nintendo Land and Mario have sold over 4 million combined, LEGO sold over 100k, etc

I think it has more to do with issues outside of their control, such as currency exchange and a corporate tax rate of nearly 40%

 

[shinra-bansho]

I think on further evaluation, the Wii U may ultimately outsell the GameCube, but due to a longer time on the market.

I'd wait just a little bit to find out more about the other systems before making any assumptions about these things. I'm sure that MS and Sony are going to spend loads of advertising dollars this holiday to hype their launches but we don't know what Nintendo has planned to combat that, if anything, or what negative factors (price, games selection, policies) may impact the PS4/720 hype machines.

I think people are overemphasizing the challenge that comes from the PS4/720 and underestimating the challenge that comes from the PS360, at least in terms of consumers.

The major impact of the PS4/720 is to suck up development resources and move developers onto a new hardware cycle that excludes the Wii U. (If that hasn't already happened, as is becoming increasingly obvious.) When "cross-gen" stops being a thing, it only gets worse.

Total: 416,960
Not including Europe - only Japan is up to 31 March only; but I think we can assume that with European sales its above those shipment numbers either way.

Cumulatively though through Mar 31, it's still significantly below shipped numbers.

Given that, the next quarter's shipments should be similarly poor.

 

[jcm]

3DS software development costs cannot be that high. NSMB2 has earned enough dough itself to warrant the budget of a major MMO. the company is bleeding money because of low Wii U sales and high development costs in preparation for Wii U software.

Nintendo says "The operating loss increased primarily due to the sales of "Nintendo 3DS" and "Wii U" being weaker than expected."

 

[Sandfox]

3DS software development costs cannot be that high. NSMB2 has earned enough dough itself to warrant the budget of a major MMO. the company is bleeding money because of low Wii U sales and high development costs in preparation for Wii U software.

You have to take hardware sells into account as well.

 

[Saint Gregory]

I think people are overemphasizing the challenge that comes from the PS4/720 and underestimating the challenge that comes from the PS360, at least in terms of consumers.

The major impact of the PS4/720 is to suck up development resources and move developers onto a new hardware cycle that excludes the Wii U. (If that hasn't already happened, as is becoming increasingly obvious.) When "cross-gen" stops being a thing, it only gets worse.
Cumulatively though through Mar 31, it's still significantly below shipped numbers.

Honestly, I knew that the Wii U was going to be in serious trouble when one of my more casual gamer friends asked me what the difference is between a Wii and a Wii U and I found myself struggling to find an answer :/

I think that in that aspect alone the PS4 and 720 will have much better launches than the Wii U since there won't be any confusion about what they represent once the media blitzes start. But if either or both consoles launch at prices in excess of $400 and aren't BC with the 360 or PS3 then I can't see a scenario where their post launch sales greatly exceed what we're seeing right now from the Wii U.

The PS3 and 360 on the other hand are poised to take off again if their prices are dropped to make room for their successors.

 

[stolin]

OK guys.. which GAF member was there asking this.. or was it Pachter.. hmm...

Q 13 I don't think that the current Nintendo is making full use of its potential. I believe that there is a way to improve your business more and more by taking advantage of what you already have. As I have a specific plan for it, I would like to make a 10-minute presentation to Mr. Miyamoto, Mr. Takeda and Mr. Iwata as soon as tomorrow if it is possible.

A 13 Iwata:
It is difficult for all of us to devote time to your specific plan. However, if you can communicate with one of our employees available here today, we will definitely hear about your ideas by receiving his/her report.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/stock/meeting/120628qa/03.html

 

[specialguy]

It doesn't even out, shipped numbers are always significantly higher than sold numbers

well, on what basis? given that we dont know europe sales....

and there's a whole world outside of the usa/eu/japan axis that we dont really have much sales knowledge at all of. how many of console x are sold in mexico? brazil? taiwan? russia? these markets are small compared to the big 3 but added together they may be significant.

i do agree ship numbers do seem usually slightly higher than our best sold to consumer guesstimates though. but there's also thing like demo/display units sent to stores, freebies given away in contests, and lots of other little things like that that may add up.

 

[cleveridea]

Wow so er nintendo`s best shot is PC, PS4 and 720 are so similar (identical third party support) that Wii U is the sensible second console?

 

[cleveridea]

The only sensible think about the 9m target AND operating income target is that the resignation comes after X months of employment vs 0 at this point. Guess I would do the same.

 

[Zoramon089]

So is this second meeting happening now?

 

[Hero of Legend]

I think something's happening or releasing now, I hope we get news or something, their release list should pop up soon enough which could show something I hope.

 

[Hero of Legend]

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/130425e.pdf

 

[shinra-bansho]

Supplementary info contains prospective launch dates for software. Third party list contains nothing new that I can see.

 

[StreetsAhead]

For Wii U, Japan:

TW101 - Summer
Wii Fit U - Summer
Wii Party (temp.) - Summer
Pikmin - July 13
WWHD - Fall
Rayman - 2013

All others TBD. They list Mario Kart and 3D Mario.

Also, Layton 6 being published 2014 in the US.

 

[Sandfox]

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/130425e.pdf

They fixed the X being Japanese only thing that people were concerned about lat time.

 

[schuelma]

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/130425e.pdf

W101 and Wii Fit U now listed as Summer in all regions.

 

[Plinko]

W101 and Wii Fit U now listed as Summer in all regions.

Crap.

 

[javac]

Crap.

Gonna have to get a Wii U sooner then you expected?

 

[schuelma]

Crap.

Looks like Pikmin 3 is going to kick off whatever sort of relaunch they attempt.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

W101 and Wii Fit U now listed as Summer in all regions.

Yesh! Its 100% not august lol

 

[FStop7]

OK guys.. which GAF member was there asking this.. or was it Pachter.. hmm...

Q 13 I don't think that the current Nintendo is making full use of its potential. I believe that there is a way to improve your business more and more by taking advantage of what you already have. As I have a specific plan for it, I would like to make a 10-minute presentation to Mr. Miyamoto, Mr. Takeda and Mr. Iwata as soon as tomorrow if it is possible.

A 13 Iwata:
It is difficult for all of us to devote time to your specific plan. However, if you can communicate with one of our employees available here today, we will definitely hear about your ideas by receiving his/her report.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/stock/meeting/120628qa/03.html

Q 13 comes from Beve Stallmer of Redmont, Washington

 

[Starphoenix]

OK guys.. which GAF member was there asking this.. or was it Pachter.. hmm...

Q 13 I don't think that the current Nintendo is making full use of its potential. I believe that there is a way to improve your business more and more by taking advantage of what you already have. As I have a specific plan for it, I would like to make a 10-minute presentation to Mr. Miyamoto, Mr. Takeda and Mr. Iwata as soon as tomorrow if it is possible.

A 13 Iwata:
It is difficult for all of us to devote time to your specific plan. However, if you can communicate with one of our employees available here today, we will definitely hear about your ideas by receiving his/her report.

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/stock/meeting/120628qa/03.html

Brera actually did it.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Did they make money or not?

In the end, they made money, but it's important to start earning money in the operative segment again.

Nvm

 

[tehrik-e-insaaf]

Did they make money or not?



Nvm

They booked an accounting profit because the dollar appreciated versus the Yen - overall they lost actual cash double what people were expecting them to lose.

Operating > Net

No one really cares about net - operating is what matters - it means the "engine" of the business is healthy or not - the way Nintendo structured their report seems to indicate that the worst has passed, and that these two years were investment-heavy - and they are saying that "now that they've paid for the petroleum" they are "revving the engine" - of course whether they hit targets remains to be seen - Analysts aren't believing it saying that the company won't do more than 70 billion yen in operating profit next year

My personal view is that 100 billion is ambitious - but if the yen/dollar exchange rate stays stable at around ~100 for the next year and Nintendo has 2 break out hits in terms of software for the Wii U and 3DS - then they are in good shape.

The only other reason I think they may not meet expectations is if Nintendo starts increasing their cost structure in America with Iwata moving to Seattle - by investing heavily in local studios and ramping up NST/Retro even more than they already have. If Nintendo spends big this fiscal year in America you could see a big hit to the bottom line - they may miss it by as much as 50%

But knowing Iwata, he is probably willing to take that huge hit if he thinks NoA long-term will be in a better position - Iwata's Nintendo doesn't really care about yearly performance - everything has has been doing lately has been structured in the context of the entire generation - one of the reasons they have taken two years of heavy operating losses - something Yamauchi would never do

 

[Log4Girlz]

How much do you guys think Wonderful 101 will sell?

 

[ThatObviousUser]

How much do you guys think Wonderful 101 will sell?

40k initial month, 80-120k lifetime. (US.)