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[Starfish Hero]

PS3 will reach 100 million from Europe alone. I don't know what you're thinking the PS4 is going to launch at, but it's not going to be cheap. Even with high fiscal targets for the system, PS3 will continue selling at a lower price. This will be done regardless of whether the PS4 has a good launch or not, as the system still has selling power.

Wait until you see the next fiscal target for the PS3. Even when PS4 is out later this year, and they're setting a fiscal target next year, it'll still be around 10 million. The system will hit 100 million 2-3 years from now comfortably. It's not going anywhere now since it's making some money.

The next gen hardware launches will kill any momentum current gen consoles have left (which isn't much). The only time this didn't happen was the PS2 and DS, and that's because they were both still juggernauts going into their successors launches. Neither the 360 or PS3 have that kind of momentum. The only reason they appear to be doing well is because everything else sans the 3DS is doing poorly. They look good by comparison, but neither are exactly flying off the shelves. Everything except the 3DS (by the skin of its teeth) is down YoY. Current gen has no selling power.

 

[Spirit Icana]

NSMB games have legs. I have no doubt NSMB2 can clear 20 million by the end of the 3DS's life. NSMBU depends entirely on the Wii U's success, but it already has a pretty crazy attach rate.

I have my doubts about NSMB 2 reaching 20 mils, but we'll see how long those legs are. It got a good holiday last year. Curious if it can it show strength later this year.

New Super Mario Bros. U's attach rate shows it is the #1 game being bought with the system. It's the only game that is selling the system, and I'd argue if it were a stronger game, those system sales would've been stronger as well.

Sales of NSMB U and 2 are already well behind their predecessors so I doubt they'll be reaching Wii and DS' figures. Question is, how much lower will it be?

 

[AOC83]

The 360 and PS3 will not get third party support for many years. Developers have been ready to move on to next gen for awhile now. As I said: this holiday season will be the last hurrah of current gen. The 360 and PS3 will get some downports throughout 2014, but notable third party support will be all but done after this year.

They will get sports games, Call of Duty and some other stuff for another 2-3 years from now at least. Just look what thirds did with the PS2.

 

[Javier]

Dem NDS Software numbers. So close to a billion.

 

[krae_man]

PSone continued to do well despite the PS2's success. In fact, the PSone might have been more successful post PS2 launch than the GameCube or XBOX.

Looks like it did about 25 million after the PS2 launched so you're right

 

[Starfish Hero]

PSone continued to do well despite the PS2's success. In fact, the PSone might have been more successful post PS2 launch than the GameCube or XBOX.

PS1 was not showing nearly as much fatigue as current gen and sales still halved from FY99 to FY00 when the PS2 was on the horizon.

 

[ascii42]

Dem NDS Software numbers. So close to a billion.

Pretty good demonstration right there of the difference between handhelds and consoles. PS2 has about the same number of systems sold, but has sold over 1.5 billion games.

 

[Verendus]

The next gen hardware launches will kill any momentum current gen consoles have left (which isn't much). The only time this didn't happen was the PS2 and DS, and that's because they were both still juggernauts going into their successors launches. Neither the 360 or PS3 have that kind of momentum. The only reason they appear to be doing well is because everything else sans the 3DS is doing poorly. They look good by comparison, but neither are exactly flying off the shelves. Everything except the 3DS (by the skin of its teeth) is down YoY. Current gen has no selling power.

Consoles which are on their 7th and 8th years on the market, selling 10 million+ annually, don't have any momentum. Okay.

Their price drops will keep them trucking along into the next generation.

 

[Linkified]

The 360 and PS3 will not get third party support for many years. Developers have been ready to move on to next gen for awhile now. As I said: this holiday season will be the last hurrah of current gen. The 360 and PS3 will get some downports throughout 2014, but notable third party support will be all but done after this year.

Hardly it is up to publishers and who would be the one to say have CoD only next gen or the next AC won't happen - there is a reason why Watch Dogs is coming out on every platform.

 

[TheNatural]

The next gen hardware launches will kill any momentum current gen consoles have left (which isn't much). The only time this didn't happen was the PS2 and DS, and that's because they were both still juggernauts going into their successors launches. Neither the 360 or PS3 have that kind of momentum. The only reason they appear to be doing well is because everything else sans the 3DS is doing poorly. They look good by comparison, but neither are exactly flying off the shelves. Everything except the 3DS (by the skin of its teeth) is down YoY. Current gen has no selling power.

360 and PS3 are also retailing at ridiculously high prices. At this point in other generations, the system was basically discontinued with zero support and around a $100 price tag. You still have 360 and PS3 SKUs on the market for $300 MSRP.

There's a ton of leeway on pricing, and you're nuts if you think there's no selling power left. If a $150 budget SKU comes out, that thing will go nuts.

 

[Starfish Hero]

Consoles which are on their 7th and 8th years on the market, selling 10 million+ annually, don't have any momentum. Okay.

Their price drops will keep them trucking along into the next generation.

They're down YoY, and its only going to get worse with new console launches eminent. If you think that's momentum I don't know what else to tell you.

 

[Snakeyes]

Pretty good demonstration right there of the difference between handhelds and consoles. PS2 has about the same number of systems sold, but has sold over 1.5 billion games.

Don't you think it has something to do with the DS being one of the easiest systems to pirate in recent memory? Even some of the soccer moms knew about flashcarts.

 

[JrBaconCheeseburger]

It's pretty amazing to see that jump in 3DS from the beginning.


That is quite a jump

 

[Starfish Hero]

360 and PS3 are also retailing at ridiculously high prices. At this point in other generations, the system was basically discontinued with zero support and around a $100 price tag. You still have 360 and PS3 SKUs on the market for $300 MSRP.

There's a ton of leeway on pricing, and you're nuts if you think there's no selling power left. If a $150 budget SKU comes out, that thing will go nuts.

Ridiculously high prices? Good lord they're $200. Holiday prices, where every console sells the most, have already dipped below that. These consoles have been out for 7 years, there are not 20 million people still sitting on their wallets waiting for $150 MSRP.

 

[TheNatural]

Ridiculously high prices? Good lord they're $200. Holiday prices, where every console sells the most, have already dipped below that. These consoles have been out for 7 years, there are not 20 million people still sitting on their wallets waiting for $150 MSRP.

There doesn't have to be 20 million. The $200 360 SKU comes with shit, and PS3 hasn't even hit $200. There's plenty left in that well for a budget line in the holiday, especially with rumors Microsoft is prepping some sort of $99 SKU.

 

[Atreides]

Don't you think it has something to do with the DS being one of the easiest systems to pirate in recent memory? Even some of the soccer moms knew about flashcarts.

That's not the problem, DS actually has a really good attach rate for a handheld.

It would be interesting to see a comparison in attach rate for all consoles to see if the ones heavily pirated have lower attach rates.

 

[Starfish Hero]

There doesn't have to be 20 million. The $200 360 SKU comes with shit, and PS3 hasn't even hit $200. There's plenty left in that well for a budget line in the holiday, especially with rumors Microsoft is prepping some sort of $99 SKU.

I'm pretty sure the PS3 was $200 this past holiday season. And I said 20 million since that's what they need to do to scratch 100 (they'll need to do a tad better than that actually).

 

[frankie_baby]

That's not the problem, DS actually has a really good attach rate for a handheld.

It would be interesting to see a comparison in attach rate for all consoles to see if the ones heavily pirated have lower attach rates.

Well the ps2 was pirated to hell and back

 

[Tagg9]

That's not the problem, DS actually has a really good attach rate for a handheld.

It would be interesting to see a comparison in attach rate for all consoles to see if the ones heavily pirated have lower attach rates.

It may not be the sole issue, but it certainly contributed to a lower ratio.

 

[TheNatural]

I'm pretty sure the PS3 was $200 this past holiday season. And I said 20 million since that's what they need to do to scratch 100 (they'll need to do a tad better than that actually).

I don't know where you get 20 million from, I'm just responding that you said there's no momentum left in them.

PS3 wasn't $200, it was $250, I was selling them. The main SKUs for the holiday were $250 for both PS3 and 360 with a hard drive and a game. The $200 SKU for 360 was the 4GB model. Most opted for the 'holiday' $250 bundle because it had games and a hard drive.

If they can get those similar holiday bundles below $200, they'll sell a shitload. Either way, I'll bet you the 360 and PS3 with a discount price this holiday will sell more than the PS4, 720, or Wii U. Systems with no selling power don't do that.

 

[Atreides]

It may not be the sole issue, but it certainly contributed to a lower ratio.

Really? Any proof about that? Because the attach rate for DS is outstanding, the best attach rate a handheld has ever had.

 

[Verendus]

They're down YoY, and its only going to get worse with new console launches eminent. If you think that's momentum I don't know what else to tell you.

I honestly don't even comprehend your thought process. What is the Xbox 360 retailed at in the US? What about the PS3? What are they retailed at in Europe? They're not exactly cheap considering they're almost a decade old. PS3 is still 249 Euros and $249 officially in the US. It's doing 10 million+ plus on that price 7 years in. It's not even at what is considered the prime pricing point.

What do you think the next Xbox or PS4 are going to be launched at? They're not going to be cheap consoles.

Whilst I believe 360 will die down in Europe, Microsoft will price it nicely and the console will do well at least for another 1-2 years in the US. They'll likely get another 5-10 million out of that region. PS3 is so expensive right now, do you honestly think it won't sell another 10 or 20 million once it's brought down to around 149 Euros or less? PS3 will be rebranded at a cheaper price point to target a younger audience eventually. There's still plenty of buyers left for it.

There is a huge difference between a 500 Euros PS4 and a 149 Euros PS3. The latter is prime to be picked up by families and as presents for kids. It also helps that it does more than just play games. The PS4/720 will be marketed to a different type of gamer, and at a $400-500 price point, they're not going to affect the potential market for the older consoles.

You have a very amateur take on this.

 

[prag16]

They will get sports games, Call of Duty and some other stuff for another 2-3 years from now at least. Just look what thirds did with the PS2.

This. And there is a large segment of PS360 players who PRIMARILY play those games; a segment that is probably not well represented on gaf.

 

[King_Moc]

Well the ps2 was pirated to hell and back

Not even comparable. I knew non-gamers at work who had R4 cartridges. These people weren't pirating with PS2's.

 

[twothunder]

No sales numbers for Fire Emblem? It was to be expected. They only list million sellers.
Being released near the end of the fiscal year ending March 31 in the West didn't give it enough time to sell over a million. (not being released in Europe and only getting two months of sales in the US.)
Hope Nintendo will announce it if they reach a million. Would be a first in the series to sell over a million ,no?

 

[Silent_Ocarina]

It'll have to compete with the what now? You mean the system that we know very little about aside from its specs and the name?

There are going to be a lot of challenges ahead for all new hardware, not just the Wii U, to convince people why they should upgrade from the PS360s many of them purchased only over the last couple years.

Yes, that's all very true, but I definitely think PlayStation 4 will hit with exponentially more hype than Wii U did. Third parties are already bailing, and this time, it doesn't look as though Nintendo has a Wii Remote/Wii Sports/Wii Fit phenomenon to make up for it.

 

[GCX]

No sales numbers for Fire Emblem? It was to be expected. They only list million sellers.
Being released near the end of the fiscal year ending March 31 in the West didn't give it enough time to sell over a million. (not being released in Europe and only getting two months of sales in the US.)
Hope Nintendo will announce it if they reach a million. Would be a first in the series to sell over a million ,no?

I'd say it's pretty much certain it'll reach over 1m sales.

 

[Saint Gregory]

Yes, that's all very true, but I definitely think PlayStation 4 will hit with exponentially more hype than Wii U did. Third parties are already bailing, and this time, it doesn't look as though Nintendo has a Wii Remote/Wii Sports/Wii Fit phenomenon to make up for it.

My general sense is that we're headed for a big upheaval in what we consider to be traditional gaming. The way that business has been conducted over that last few gens isn't sustainable and I believe the general public is starting to demonstrate that they're looking for new experiences.

Nintendo thought that they captured this with the Wii U and I think they know now that they were wrong but it seems like they're already transitioning to a plan B which is to build up a base of new smaller indie devs to replace what they're losing from the big 3rd parties.

Not that plan B is going to work but honestly I'm not sure that any of the plans we've seen so far (Nintendo's new interface and Sony and MS's business as usual) are going to be feasible for next gen. I hope that Sony and MS flip the script at E3 and demonstrate that they know the market is changing but we've heard nothing pointing towards that.

 

[AniHawk]

My general sense is that we're headed for a big upheaval in what we consider to be traditional gaming. The way that business has been conducted over that last few gens isn't sustainable and I believe the general public is starting to demonstrate that they're looking for new experiences.

Nintendo thought that they captured this with the Wii U and I think they know now that they were wrong but it seems like they're already transitioning to a plan B which is to build up a base of new smaller indie devs to replace what they're losing from the big 3rd parties.

Not that plan B is going to work but honestly I'm not sure that any of the plans we've seen so far (Nintendo's new interface and Sony and MS's business as usual) are going to be feasible for next gen. I hope that Sony and MS flip the script at E3 and demonstrate that they know the market is changing but we've heard nothing pointing towards that.

microsoft and sony are both actually making big media boxes. microsoft in particular seems to be pushing for this. sony says the system is so powerful because it's all about games, but i think there's more. sony was very smart to build hype among the most hype-able people out there: nerds on the internet. it gets the buzz going before sony ever has to talk about motion controls and hulu.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

So what's the consensus on how the 3DS is performing? It seems to be doing ok for itself but is it doing good enough?

 

[Mpl90]

So what's the consensus on how the 3DS is performing? It seems to be doing ok for itself but is it doing good enough?

31 millions in two years are good, but Q4's shipments have been pretty low due to big overshipment in Q3. Hardware sales in the West have been decreasing more or less in 2012 compared to 2011 (Europe actually was up for all the year, then disappointing Holidays happened), so this is where they need to focus all their attention: improving Western situation, and between far more frequent bundles / colors, titles seeing lower prices (especially Animal Crossing) and overall a killer first party lineup there are good probabilities of reverting the trends and giving a good kickstart for not just decent / good 3DS sales.

 

[Somnid]

So what's the consensus on how the 3DS is performing? It seems to be doing ok for itself but is it doing good enough?

Over the last year not great, I'd describe it as "serviceable." Of course recently there's been a uptick on the heels of Fire Emblem and Luigi's Mansion. Animal Crossing has yet to debut in the West but it's hard to imagine given previous entries that it won't blow the lid off like it did in Japan. I expect it to be the best selling system this year and it will probably do well for itself going forward.

 

[jvm]

Anyone know if Nintendo has put out DSi XL vs. DSi breakdown figures since last year?

 

[Darryl]

So what's the consensus on how the 3DS is performing? It seems to be doing ok for itself but is it doing good enough?

it's still in money printing territory

 

[jcm]

it's still in money printing territory

Nintendo sure is losing a lot of money for a company with a money printer.

 

[jvm]

Nintendo sure is losing a lot of money for a company with a money printer.

The ink is expensive.

 

[Chinpoko_Master]

it's still in money printing territory

Not really.

 

[Pancakes R Us]

Nintendo sure is losing a lot of money for a company with a money printer.

Must only be able to print fake notes.

 

[Road]

Anyone know if Nintendo has put out DSi XL vs. DSi breakdown figures since last year?

Not in the earnings release, no.

But they update the sales here every quarter and you can do the Math.

13q1
12q4
12q3
12q2
12q1

Save them because they delete the old ones after some time (they also have the xls version).

 

[jvm]

Not in the earnings release, no.

But they update the sales here every quarter and you can do the Math.

13q1
12q4
12q3
12q2
12q1

Save them because they delete the old ones after some time (they also have the xls version).

My hero. Thanks, man.

 

[onipex]

Fiscal Year 2013 software sales:

Pokémon Rumble Blast - 210,000 / 1,290,000

Make me wonder how Pokemon Rumble U will do and question why they didn't also release it on the 3DS with a nfc connector.

 

[Beermeister]

€99 Wii U and I'm in.

 

[Cosmozone]

This excerpt from the financial report commentary I found interesting regarding Wii U:

Taking this into consideration, for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2014, we plan to concentrate on proactively releasing key Nintendo titles from the second half of this year through next year in order to regain momentum for the platform. Nintendo strives to improve the sales by communicating the compelling nature of our hardware and software to as many people as possible through our new network service called “Miiverse,” which offers an environment where people can empathize with others and share their gaming experiences. We also strive to reduce costs to improve hardware profitability.

So I hope they'll advertise Miiverse some more and integrate it better into games. I think it's one of the few ways to improve sales in their current situation.

 

[perfectchaos007]

390,000 units worldwide in 3 months. That number is just...depressing.

 

[Unai]

In layman terms, does this mean Nintendo lost money again, or did they made a profit?

 

[Captain Smoker]

In layman terms, does this mean Nintendo lost money again, or made a profit?

In the end, they made money, but it's important to start earning money in the operative segment again.

 

[javac]

390,000 units worldwide in 3 months. That number is just...depressing.

That's shipped numbers...is it not? Still isn't good.

 

[Unai]

In the end, they made money, but it's important to start earning money in the operative segment again.

Ok, thanks.

 

[Father_Brain]

390,000 units worldwide in 3 months. That number is just...depressing.

For comparison, that's about the same as the 400K Vita units shipped in its first post-launch quarter (Q2 2012), and significantly less than the number of 3DS units shipped in its own first post-launch quarter (710K in Q2 2011).

 

[Cheebo]

In the end, they made money, but it's important to start earning money in the operative segment again.

It's important to note net income was way under what was predicted and operating losses were double what was predicted.