That's preferable to three identical consoles.
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IGN: Exactly How Bad is the Nintendo Situation?
- Thread starter BY2K
- Start date
That's preferable to three identical consoles.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Isn't that what the Wii U is? If sales numbers are anything to go by, no, people don't want that.
This would have more merit if said games were available, don't you think?
I can't believe they've squandered an entire year head start. Completely let it go to waste.
Yes I'm aware how little the WiiU has been selling this year but it's not like it's had any software released during that time that would drive its installed base. Software sells hardware, do you accept that WiiU's sales will improve once we see the effect of Pikmin 3, Mario 3D world, Sonic: lost world, Wii Fit, W101, Zelda WWHD etc?
Ninja Scooter
Member
New Super Mario Bros, a sequel to a game on Wii that sold like 30 million copies, came and went and didn't do much. Why would I have much faith that DK Returns or Pikmin or Super Mario Bros 3D...sequels to games that are less known and have not sold nearly as much, will cause much of a bump?
Those games listed will sell, I don't deny that. And they will likely cause a slight bump in sales. But will they attract any people that didn't have Wii U on their radar before? I doubt it.
New Super Mario Bros. U is a sequel to a massive game. That should have been a sales driver. The drop off from the very first 2 months shows that people have moved on from Nintendo's core titles.
shinra-bansho
Member
If the PS4/XB1 release in Oct/Nov as expected the Wii U will in all likelihood still be under 1.5M in the US. That's a number that the 360 reached in about 4-5 months with supply constraints and the PS3 about 9 months at $599, just off the top of my head.
The PS3 at 599 EUR reached approx the Wii U's current European LTD in about 2 days.
We've seen the effect of Pikmin in Japan and the UK already. Minimal.
The PS3 at 599 EUR reached approx the Wii U's current European LTD in about 2 days.
We've seen the effect of Pikmin in Japan and the UK already. Minimal.
NSMBU was a launch game, and the WiiU had a strong launch because of it.
One game is not enough for most people.
I can see plently of people prefering the WiiU game library this xmas over the ps4/xbone libraries, not to mention the 360/ps3 with GTAV
Because a single game (regardless of how popular its franchise/series is) is just not as significant a motivator to purchase a new console as a cumulative half-dozen big-name titles are - even if that single game is from a franchise so big that it dwarves the entire collection.
Edit: To be fair, that might be different if we were talking about an online-focused game from a massive franchise, since online multiplayer games can leverage Friends List Peer Pressure to make sure that sales drive more sales, which drive more sales, and so on, but NSMB is a strictly offline affair.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
Nope.
I love their franchises, but not enough to buy a home console for them. The GC and Wii gathered tons of dust for me during droughts between first party games I cared about, so I won't make the mistake of buying another one.
I'm happy to just get my Nintendo fix on portables as those are cheaper, sell better and get better third party support, and are most less obtrusive (i.e. easily stuck in a drawer out of site, out of mind) if there are any droughts.
shinra-bansho
Member
This talk of the PS4 and XB1 selling against the Wii U is somewhat moot anyway. They really aren't competing for the same consumer anyway.
Here's the thing about NSMBU: I believe that it was released way too close to NSMB2, and that had an effect on enthusiasm for the title. Hell, the game has some ridiculous attach rate, so in theory it did its job of selling a Wii U to people, but I'm willing to bet the overlap with 2 prevented it from doing better.
As for a potential stagnant bump, I think they have a little advantage with their titles usually having ridiculous legs.
Wii sports
In reality they are. Though Nintendo failed to realize it.
Ninja Scooter
Member
It honestly all sounds like wishful thinking. PS4 and Xbone, contrary to what people who want to believe the industry is tanking would have you believe, are tracking to be huge. They have a ton of hype and momentum behind them. There is nothing to indicate they will struggle anywhere near the way Wii U did in it's first 6 months. Come October/November, they are going to take up ALL of the headlines and games like Mario 3D World and Donkey Kong will be relegated to the back pages. There will not be enough buzz or hype of fervor to cause the kind of spike in sales Nintendo needs. Those games will sell well, but they are not going to create a phenomenon, which is exactly what Nintendo needs to cause their sales to go from where they are now, in the tank, to the levels that MS and Sony will be selling.
As I've said before, I really think Nintendo fans are either in denial or just underestimating just how bad the Wii U is selling. It's not comparable to 3DS. It's not comparable to PS3. Its not respectable or simply treading water. If that were the case, maybe a solid lineup could push it over the hump. It needs something in the vein of Wii Sports. Something that appeals to all sorts of people to pull sales and the system's fortunes out of the gutter. Mario and Donkey Kong are not those games.
NEXT holiday? As in 2014? By that time what Mario Kart and Smash Bros do will not make any difference. This holiday was the key. Those are games they needed this year.
New super Mario bros 2 is not a sales driver for the 3ds and the original had fantastic sales. I don't think the game is a system seller, rather its a game that people pick up once they have the system. Pokemon for instance is a system seller.
I believe Mario Kart and Smash Bros will pull in some numbers. Obviously it won't be huge but I think next year holiday season the Wii u will be decent.
I do however agree that Nintendo wasted this head start.
captainraincoat
Banned
True...but the snes was when Nintendo nailed first party/hardware and third party
After that they missed the hardware piece (carts vs cd) and went downhill from there
Imagine if they went back to the drawing board and came out with an actual gamers console
They have the coin....no reason why they couldn't
I don't have wishful thinking, I think console gaming is clearly in decline, whats wishful about that?
The wishful thinking appears to me to be people pretending that the industry is just fine and dandy with companies going out of business left and centre whilst Japan have migrated to handhelds while the mass market in the west are more interested in web and ios/android gaming . Gamers are even able to play new games like Watchdogs, GTAV, ACIV, GT6 etc on consoles they already have
shinra-bansho
Member
It's not. Nintendo may have wanted it to be competitive. It may ostensibly be 8th gen. But the reality is the product is competing, and poorly at that, for the consumers purchasing 360s and PS3s.
Ninja Scooter
Member
The industry is changing and evolving. That doesn't mean it is in decline. Nintendo's struggles are not because of some industry decline. They are because Nintendo did a shitty job of every part of the Wii U, nearly every step of the way. Even if MS and Sony don't replicate the sales numbers of 360 and PS3, do you think they will decline at the same rate as WIi-->Wii U? Not a chance in hell. There is still room for growth and revenue in the console industry, it's just not with Nintendo. When the PS4 and Xbone surpass Wii U's LTD in 3-6 months, will that be a sign of decline?
... Was not the only driver of the Wii's insane early success. The concept of the hardware (controller) itself was as much or more of a sales driver than the actual content that was available on the Wii, and that content included not only Wii Sports, but Wii Play and at least a half-dozen similar motion-driven casual games that saw some pretty great success in the early days of the Wii's lifespan, along with a few standout non-casual titles that sold on the promise of motion controls being able to add to the experience of traditional games.
That would confirm the console industry is in decline.
As to whether the ps4/xbone surprass the WiiU's LTD in 3 months, well that sounds like wishful thinking or perhaps I can please borrow your crystal ball?
Ninja Scooter
Member
No but you can eat crow when it happens.
Wolfram Alpha only seems to compute the last 5 years.
No its not. Nintendo had a lot more short term investments in the past. They've lost about 4 billion in the last 3 years. Here is the chart total of cash and short term investments:
Cash only, by comparison:
See you in three months then I guess.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Well three months from now is October so that won't do much good.
Nintendo as an entity is still in a good spot, the Wii U however is dead. Nintendo needs an apple moment where they create a product we never knew we needed. I like to think they make a console with comparable power to the Xbox One and PS4 but like with built in screen, but not bulky. Basically a gaming laptop, but with optimizations that consoles possess, with 4g LTE and other bells and whistles. Not sure how feasible this is or if it's even a good idea, but it sounds like something crazy that Nintendo could do.
OK I meant three months after ps4/xbone launch sorry.
If it doesnt happen , I'm sure you will have an excuse like "shortages" or some such and just to clarify we are talking worldwide sales non of this US only bullshit.
Chinpoko_Master
Member
I don't think $499 - $599 consoles will pull in the mass market either. Fortunately, I live in reality where they cost $100 less!
Depends what currency your talking about.
I said damn! lol
18 months? You're kidding right? PS4's price at $399 is going to ensure they pass Wii U's LTD fairly quickly and even the gaffes from MS won't stop people from buying the Xbone either. You say 18 months? I say 3.5 to 4. You are seriously underestimating the hype behind the PS4/Xbone.
shinra-bansho
Member
The XB1 won't be launching in Japan (not that it matters). The PS4 may not either.
Also, are you referring to actual sell-through or the massive over shipment Nintendo stuffed the channel with at launch.
Chinpoko_Master
Member
Are you Canadian? Because when someone uses the dollar sign I naturally assume they mean US dollars. Otherwise it just sounds like you're trying to bend the truth to make things seem worse.
Nintendo's biggest problem has been lack of an online infrastructure. The fact that as I'm typing this, I can't tell you what Nintendo's equivalent to PSN or Xbox Live is a big problem. They need to fix that. I still think the Wii U is dead, but an comparable online experience to what MS and Sony offer will go a long way in helping them. Does Nintendo still do the friend codes thing?
Chinpoko_Master
Member
Haha, wow. This is one of the most hilariously bad ideas I've seen on GAF.
With Nintendos forecast of 9M units this FY they would've been expecting the Wii U to sell 2 million units this holiday in the US (or more). Its not going to, but still its LTD may be close to that figure depending on the effectiveness of a big price drop. The PS4/XBOne wont outsell it in three months because they wont have supply. Even if they had supply that would be a tall order. Certainly both wont be able to accomplish it.
Wii U had a bad launch in the US, terrible in Europe, and maybe good in Japan but overall WW nowhere near strong.
Well thats debatable. In the US the Wii U had a strong launch only with the disingenuous comparisons been thrown around against sold out launch systems and ignoring the fact it was unusually available on store shelves, and even then it was outright bloody terrible in Europe from the get-go. I remember threads like this one where we were shown how the Wii U was supposedly selling quite well. But like I pointed out back then it was just inability to discern the current sales trajectory and misleading comparisons.
Wii U had a bad launch in the US, terrible in Europe, and maybe good in Japan but overall WW nowhere near strong.
Snowden's Secret
Banned
I think we may have a slight case of people overestimating the attractiveness of a $400 games console to the market at large in here.
I'm also not sure how we're expecting either company to push machines, as neither has a hook? Sony's strategy is "they have to upgrade eventually; don't be Microsoft" which may be a brilliant long term strategy but isn't going to drive initial sales past enthusiasts. Microsoft... I'm not even sure, $500 is dead in the water.
Say what you will about the Gamepad, but at least a value driver exists for Wii U. Look back at the last couple of successful platforms, they all offer something (let's call them "gimmicks") never before seen that drove the success.
PS1: 3D graphics/cutscenes
PS2: DVD playback
Wii: Motion controls
DS: Touch screen
Even Kinect did crazy numbers, and it was terrible.
PS4/XBONE are literally just linear upgrades over their predecessors, so that may still reach success over time but there's no guarantee short term.
I'm also not sure how we're expecting either company to push machines, as neither has a hook? Sony's strategy is "they have to upgrade eventually; don't be Microsoft" which may be a brilliant long term strategy but isn't going to drive initial sales past enthusiasts. Microsoft... I'm not even sure, $500 is dead in the water.
Say what you will about the Gamepad, but at least a value driver exists for Wii U. Look back at the last couple of successful platforms, they all offer something (let's call them "gimmicks") never before seen that drove the success.
PS1: 3D graphics/cutscenes
PS2: DVD playback
Wii: Motion controls
DS: Touch screen
Even Kinect did crazy numbers, and it was terrible.
PS4/XBONE are literally just linear upgrades over their predecessors, so that may still reach success over time but there's no guarantee short term.
are "actual sell through" numbers available for wii u launch and will they be for ps4/xbone ?
Let's not go in that direction chap.
I think Nintendo has the strongest software this year by far and if marketed properly can catapult them into a not to far off third place (or even second). Especially if the other new consoles sell out. All of this is assuming that thing Iwata said about stopping all Wii U marketing for the first part of this year was done in order to have a big push this holiday is true.
I also think the marketing should have some amount of focus on showing the way that the Wii U can control your TV and even has a dedicated TV button (just to shit in Microsofts cereal).
I also think the marketing should have some amount of focus on showing the way that the Wii U can control your TV and even has a dedicated TV button (just to shit in Microsofts cereal).
I think you're underestimating peoples needs to play AAA games. With Wii U barely being competition this gen, I expect Sony and MS to eat much further into the marketshare that Nintendo got with the Wii. Unless Apple comes out with iConsole or whatever they'll call it. Don't forget that these devices won't always be $400/$500 dollars. By mid gen, I expect you'll be able to pick up a PS4 for $300 and X1 for $350.
Wickerbasket
Member
The Wii U's current LTD is about 3.6 million units worldwide and, even if it did unrealistically well at Xmas, they're still going to be 3 or 4 million short of FY target.
Realistically, I think the PS4 has a strong chance of overtaking the Wii U's LTD after a few months on the market. I don't think people realise how badly the Wii U is selling everywhere; there's not a single region it's successful in.
Snowden's Secret
Banned
No, I agree that PS4 is the likely future "winner" and that both have decent prospects over the course of the next five years (slow and steady wins the race and all that).
I don't think they'll be immediately successful or widely adopted, for a handful of reasons.
Most of the growth of the seventh console generation came from the Wii, and given that Wii U's not looking good, PS4 is continuing down the core gamer path, and Xbox One's casual interface makes the system cost at least $100 more than either the Wii U or the PS4, that Wii fanbase is almost certain not to come back. Looking at just the sales of the PS3 and the 360 versus the sales of the PS2 and the OG Xbox has shown that without the Wii, console gaming would declined with the seventh generation.
Aquamarine
Member
Worldwide? The most we have access to regularly are sales in the two principal regions (USA and Japan).
Technically it is feasible to get European / Australian / Canadian sales through independent trackers, but they are seldom ever given out / leaked. Other territories don't really have any reliable metrics outside of console manufacturer's proprietary POS tracking services (and those are completely confidential).
At the moment it's impossible to get a complete worldwide view of "actual sell through numbers." We can only extrapolate and estimate based on the tidbits that filter down to us (these days, the tidbits mostly come from graphs sourced from Nintendo investor relations).
Technically they need 8.84 million in nine months to fulfill their predictions.
Assuming a ~200K shipped precedent into September, that's 8.64 million they need shipped in six months (October through March).
What Nintendo expects is for the Wii U to exceed launch sales (where the Wii U shipped 3.06 million in roughly one month), and maintain at least a ~1 million per month momentum for the remainder of the period.
Essentially, Nintendo aims to relaunch the Wii U. But THIS time, Nintendo predicts strong, Wii-esque momentum. So the Wii U would have to suddenly become a runaway hit to even approach the goal. That's a very hard proposition to sell, given that Mario Kart 8 is delayed until the spring, and 3D Mario / Donkey Kong / Mario & Sonic will have to carry the entire brunt of the relaunch.
At $500/$550 the PS4 and Xbox One are already competitively priced here in Australia. The PS2 launched at $750, the PS3 at $999.
2 million was in reference to US sellthrough by the end of this year, which is the only region we are likely to get quality comparable data for all the systems.
IrishNinja
Member
yeah, that was my take here as well...kinda refreshing to see something on the other end of the spectrum form "they should putt their games on iOS!" type nonsense, man even that dude from naughty dog was on that tip at e3. shit's tragic.
at the crux of my prior complaints about people not seeing WU as current gen was this, so yeah, hearing that they're not competing in the same market is kinda weird. there's variances in demographic here & there but they're not selling toasters.
Your point is well-taken, and although conceptually smartphones and tablets are indeed much more competitors to handhelds than the console business, I don't think shareholders are clamoring for Nintendo to jump into that space yet if it would cannibalize (or force them to abandon outright) their existing handheld business -- if for no other reason than Nintendo is extremely risk-averse and would be hesitant to abandon their most profitable business.
I don't believe the overlap between the handheld/mobile and console/PC gaming markets is all that great -- they're not really direct competitors. Nintendo can reasonably expect that it can sell to the same consumer in both markets. Although the console business may have peaked, it's far from dead, and Nintendo could potentially be selling tens of millions of copies of each of its top franchises to console gamers at $60 apiece. Even if they want to jump into the smartphone/tablet market, the margins that console games at the top of the sales food chain can command is still enormous.
Additionally, there's a case to be made that going third-party on the console games side could help Nintendo protect its handheld business by getting more hardcore gamers re-immersed in the Nintendo ecosystem. To the end, Nintendo is a large enough player that they might be able to sign an extremely favorable distribution deal with either Sony and/or Microsoft that would allow them a certain degree of autonomy to sell digital games outside of each platform's first-party marketplace (perhaps via a Nintendo eShop app for each system). The threat of Nintendo exclusively going with one partner would probably be too much for the other company to ignore. It would be similar to how Apple was able to use its weight to obtain a favorable deal from AT&T with the iPhone, and then has since bent over every other U.S. carrier and is generally the only device that lacks carrier branding and doesn't require carrier approval for software updates.
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