-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
December 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Aquamarine
Member
I'm confident that Nintendo has not managed significantly greater (or fewer) consoles sold in December than the estimates that their PR was able to brag about. For good measure, I'll add an extra 50K.
3DS - 1,150,000
I do believe that PS4 was heavily constrained by supply, but I also believe that Sony has had success with replenishing stock. Regardless, the NPD sell-through number will directly reflect what Sony has been able to ship for the month. Otherwise, PS4 would have been well over a million easily.
PS4 - 1,036,000
Simply due to the sheer amount of consoles available (wide-reaching supply with few absolute sell-outs), I think the PS4 will have only just outsold the Xbox One. Keep in mind, we're still in the launch period of the consoles, so demand, advertising, and public presence are at an all-time high. If you remember with the Wii U, it sustained momentum into December (425K November -> 463K December) and only fell off a cliff in January. Even if there is a possibility that Xbox One will be subject to low demand in the future, its December performance should still stay very strong.
Xbox One - 956,000
I believe PS3 and 360 will receive relatively decent holiday bumps despite their successors being available on the market, due largely in part to their cheap prices and wide availability. This should be their last holiday pulling healthy numbers, though.
PS3 - 528,000
360 - 739,000
Poor Wii U. After floundering in November (222,700 is still a HORRIBLE number for November sales), I don't have hope it will fare much better in December.
Wii U - 325,000
And, Vita continues to be dead.
Vita - 112,000
In proper counting order:
[360] 739,000
[3DS] 1,150,000
[PS3] 528,000
[PS4] 1,036,000
[PSV] 112,000
[WIU] 325,000
[XB1] 956,000
3DS - 1,150,000
I do believe that PS4 was heavily constrained by supply, but I also believe that Sony has had success with replenishing stock. Regardless, the NPD sell-through number will directly reflect what Sony has been able to ship for the month. Otherwise, PS4 would have been well over a million easily.
PS4 - 1,036,000
Simply due to the sheer amount of consoles available (wide-reaching supply with few absolute sell-outs), I think the PS4 will have only just outsold the Xbox One. Keep in mind, we're still in the launch period of the consoles, so demand, advertising, and public presence are at an all-time high. If you remember with the Wii U, it sustained momentum into December (425K November -> 463K December) and only fell off a cliff in January. Even if there is a possibility that Xbox One will be subject to low demand in the future, its December performance should still stay very strong.
Xbox One - 956,000
I believe PS3 and 360 will receive relatively decent holiday bumps despite their successors being available on the market, due largely in part to their cheap prices and wide availability. This should be their last holiday pulling healthy numbers, though.
PS3 - 528,000
360 - 739,000
Poor Wii U. After floundering in November (222,700 is still a HORRIBLE number for November sales), I don't have hope it will fare much better in December.
Wii U - 325,000
And, Vita continues to be dead.
Vita - 112,000
In proper counting order:
[360] 739,000
[3DS] 1,150,000
[PS3] 528,000
[PS4] 1,036,000
[PSV] 112,000
[WIU] 325,000
[XB1] 956,000
The press release said "more than 11.5 million in the United States alone." That only gives us a lower bound. Did I miss some other news?
LunaticHigh
Member
[360] 780K
[3DS] 1010K
[PS3] 520K
[PS4] 965K
[PSV] 110K
[WIU] 266K
[XB1] 835k
[3DS] 1010K
[PS3] 520K
[PS4] 965K
[PSV] 110K
[WIU] 266K
[XB1] 835k
Aquamarine
Member
See December 2009.
"Wii sold over 3m"
*predict something just over 3m*
*Wii sells 3.8m*
"Dangit, Nintendo!!!"
SwiftDeath
Member
I suppose but the 3Ds is not the Wii. It's doing well but I think it will be down YOY personally. We'll see I guess
I'm thinking NPD is going to be notable just for the width by which PS4 wins. People seem to be accounting XBONE being seen on shelves and on Amazon and PS4 not being visible as meaning XBONE sold more. But as has been said multiple times:
Gamestop doesn't have a single PS4 on the shelf, yet is estimated to account for 60% of US PS4 shipments.
Times big shipments did go through to retail (Target, Walmart, and Best Buy "in stock Sundays") the PS4 grossly outsold the XBONE.
So 40% of stock shows the PS4 vastly outselling XBONE on the same day/week, and the remaining (estimated) 60% all sold out without ever even hitting the shelves.
We also know MS sold roughly 1M units in Dec, while Sony sold roughly 2M units in December. Assuming 100% US sales for XBONE and 50% US sales for PS4 (both laughably inaccurate numbers) and the two are tied.
Fine screw it.. I'll throw my hat in..
[360] 740K
[3DS] 1200K
[PS3] 490K
[PS4] 1100K
[PSV] 165K
[WIU] 295K
[XB1] 810K
Gamestop doesn't have a single PS4 on the shelf, yet is estimated to account for 60% of US PS4 shipments.
Times big shipments did go through to retail (Target, Walmart, and Best Buy "in stock Sundays") the PS4 grossly outsold the XBONE.
So 40% of stock shows the PS4 vastly outselling XBONE on the same day/week, and the remaining (estimated) 60% all sold out without ever even hitting the shelves.
We also know MS sold roughly 1M units in Dec, while Sony sold roughly 2M units in December. Assuming 100% US sales for XBONE and 50% US sales for PS4 (both laughably inaccurate numbers) and the two are tied.
Fine screw it.. I'll throw my hat in..
[360] 740K
[3DS] 1200K
[PS3] 490K
[PS4] 1100K
[PSV] 165K
[WIU] 295K
[XB1] 810K
Aquamarine
Member
Microsoft sold 1 million units by November 22nd, 2 million units by December 9th, and 3 million units by December 31st.
November 23rd - November 30th = 8 days
December 1st - December 9th = 9 days
Assuming the console sold the same amount every day, that would be ~1.5 million units in December, not 1 million.
Or, something like this:
November 22nd - 1 million LTD
November 23rd - November 30th = 500,000
---
December 1st - December 9th = 500,000
December 9th = 2 million LTD
December 10th - December 31st = 1 million
December 31st = 3 million LTD
PS4 sold 2.1 million consoles worldwide in December. The <1000K posts for PS4 predicts <47.6% of those sales happened in the USA...Sony most likely prioritized the USA for their new shipments, but were enough consoles able to come to the USA in time for PS4 to outsell Xbox One?
Wedbush Securities estimates ~300,000 PS4 consoles are getting manufactured every week.
Agreed. People are just assuming that there's enough demand for Xbone (and supply exceeding that demand) to outsell the supply constrained PS4... I don't think that's the case at all.
We'll see on Thursday I guess.
Majmun
Member
Wow, totally missed that. We usually have a thread about his predictions.
Ps4 seems very high
Fixed that for you.
SwiftDeath
Member
We got Canadian NPD numbers at some point in time?
Canis lupus
Member
[PS4] 1150k
[3DS] 1230k
[XB1] 960k
[360] 630k
[PS3] 510k
[WIU] 292k
[PSV] 114k
[3DS] 1230k
[XB1] 960k
[360] 630k
[PS3] 510k
[WIU] 292k
[PSV] 114k
Yeah. Dalthien kept up with them pretty regular. Just search for "NPD Canada" in thread titles.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=349316&highlight=npd+canada
SwiftDeath
Member
Thanks interesting to see the breakdown especially percentage-wise in regards to US sales numbers
Apophis2036
Banned
Thanks for the info, it would be great if he actually posted them here himself, doesn't he have a Gaf account, or does he go under a pseudonym ?.
That's a big WiiU prediction (what was his WiiU prediction for last month NPD ?), if it does sell over 500 000 in a single month I have to say that would be a huge win for Nintendo considering the console has been selling 30 - 50k per month in the US this year !
Aquamarine
Member
He does, actually, although he doesn't visit GAF as frequent as most of us.
Here is his official GAF account:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/member.php?u=18255
Join Date: 01-24-2007
Total Posts: 148 (0.06 posts per day)
Last Activity: 01-10-2014 05:35 PM
Last Post: 09-29-2013, 06:16 PM
Second to Last Post: 06-15-2013, 01:51 PM
As you can see, he's a lurker, but he definitely does visit this site somewhat often.
theprodigy
Member
let's do this?
[360] 700K
[3DS] 1200K
[PS3] 500K
[PS4] 1001K
[PSV] 110K
[WIU] 350K
[XB1] 1000K
don't burn me again 3DS
[360] 700K
[3DS] 1200K
[PS3] 500K
[PS4] 1001K
[PSV] 110K
[WIU] 350K
[XB1] 1000K
don't burn me again 3DS
the two problems to your argument are:
a) assuming xbone sold the same amount every day. yes it's possible, but it's also possible that sales declined or fluctuated. We saw stock on store shelves INCREASE over the month, but we don't know why. That was my only point. If visible stock increased solely because of increased supply, great.. but if reduced demand had anything to do with it, then the "selling the same each day" creates a problem.
b) Sony can manufacture 300K per week, but we also know they were drop shipping what would essentially be january units for holiday supply. So it ends up looking like Sony is supplying MORE than 300K per week, even though they are only manufacturing and ground shipping the actual 300K.
Either way we'll see in two days. It's all speculation either way.
Apophis2036
Banned
.fastford58
Member
I agree with your assertions. I believe X1 outsold PS4 in December.
SwiftDeath
Member
It's certainly possible. XB1 will have had most of its sales in the US for certain
anexanhume
Member
We know it sold well in EU, doubling to quintupling what XB1 did in many countries. Thus, there's a strong possibilities that its December sales were more spread out. Given that their initial stock sold 29-30 of November, it seems fair to say that December units were shipped units only (not launch units), which means their shipment capacity was spread across those territories in competition with NA.
SwiftDeath
Member
Fair point but it has at least a million+ sales in Europe I'm not sure the same could be said with the XB1 although that 1.2 million lead has to be somewhere. Also if mortimer's asia ship number is accurate than around half a million units were probably sold there too.
This is such a hard NPD to predict, well aside from both the Wii U and Vita doing poorly I guess
If we knew how many units MS allocated to Europe, we would get a very good idea how much they sold. They are being beaten in every market in Europe by the PS4, and while we do have some sales numbers, we do not have shipment numbers.
The same could be said for Sony, we just dont know shipment numbers in Europe contra NA. Has Sony sold 1 million consoles in Europe by now?
The same could be said for Sony, we just dont know shipment numbers in Europe contra NA. Has Sony sold 1 million consoles in Europe by now?
SwiftDeath
Member
Technically by the official numbers we actually know, PS4 is beating XB1 in every territory worldwide except Australia and Brazil. And for Brazil we don't have official numbers, I'm making assumptions that people aren't crazy
eh, my take is people want the numbers to be more interesting than they will be (don't we all!!!) It's fun to predict neck and neck or the XBONE coming in at a slight advantage. But I'm pretty confident that the ratio we're seeing in this first month-ish is very indicative of the ratio we'll continue see until/unless there's a game changer down the road (on either side).
Dragonborn
Member
If the X1 can't beat the PS4 this month, I just don't see it winning an NPD until a good price cut unless supply for PS4 is even more constrained in January.
Maybe march with Titanfall
I can't believe there's such an expectation for the PS4 to win out this NPD. Not to say I expect peoples' prediction are wrong, just that it baffles me that there could even be merit to the possibility that, for all the supply constraint PS4 should be experiencing in a month were they launched in several counties in addition to continuing to ship to the originals, that the Xbone still couldn't beat it out in the US.
Multiplat, with the majority of its sales guaranteed to be on the 360. If you want to tell me about magical MS advertising that's going to mysteriously change things, save your breath.
Multiplat, with the majority of its sales guaranteed to be on the 360. If you want to tell me about magical MS advertising that's going to mysteriously change things, save your breath.
Dragonborn
Member
I still think Titanfall won't move enough X1s to outsell PS4. Then again, it might. I just find it hard to believe
Won't happen, by the time that game hits ps4 will be far ahead. Playstations price will keep it ahead.
SwiftDeath
Member
Eh the response was to whether or not XB1 can win an NPD in the future
Titanfall could be enough to beat out PS4 in NPD for March. I severely doubt it but we'll see
megabytecr
Member
XB1 could beat PS4 in march but I doubt it. I expect MS to Market the hell out of Titanfall.
But I see two issues:
1. The game is also on X360 and XB1 is $500, so I expect most sales on 360
2. If the game is a hit with the CoD crowd, which most are casuals that only play CoD, the migration to TitanFall could take months and word of mouth.
But I see two issues:
1. The game is also on X360 and XB1 is $500, so I expect most sales on 360
2. If the game is a hit with the CoD crowd, which most are casuals that only play CoD, the migration to TitanFall could take months and word of mouth.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Any idea when NPD will be out? Can't imagine it's too far away.
Aquamarine
Member
Exactly two days from now (the day after tomorrow, at this exact time).
SwiftDeath
Member
Believe it's the 16th. Obviously we'll have to wait until official announcements by Sony, MS, Nintendo if they give any and then hope our own insider gives us the numbers
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Thanks for the info, guessing the Christmas and New years are why it seems later than I normally remember.
Aquamarine
Member
A little more than 24 hours remain until the NPD season is among us!