Movalpolos
Banned
Dead on arrival.
Might do 20m lifetime.
Might do 20m lifetime.
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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?
- Thread starter Gurish
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I feel much the same for Switch as I did about Wii U - not very convinced of its success.
If and when it becomes obvious that 'Nintendo handheld' is focused on Switch also, then I can see better prospects. But as benched against 3DS and Wii U combined, perhaps still not great.
Nintendo is still treating the market as if the market perceives it as a 'primary' gaming solution when I think outside of a limited segment, it's perceived as a secondary option. Their approach to Switch neither does anything to change its perceived positioning (e.g. make it a credible primary console outside of a smaller market), nor change the price/value formula to be commensurate with its perceived positioning.
If and when it becomes obvious that 'Nintendo handheld' is focused on Switch also, then I can see better prospects. But as benched against 3DS and Wii U combined, perhaps still not great.
Nintendo is still treating the market as if the market perceives it as a 'primary' gaming solution when I think outside of a limited segment, it's perceived as a secondary option. Their approach to Switch neither does anything to change its perceived positioning (e.g. make it a credible primary console outside of a smaller market), nor change the price/value formula to be commensurate with its perceived positioning.
Triggerhappytel
Member
I've only really read/seen highlights, but I think Zelda looks phenomenal, I'm excited by more Mario Kart 8 (although largely because I don't own the original, and this one doesn't seem to be adding a great deal of new content), and I think Mario Odyssey looks fun and sounds like a great concept.
But a lot of people seem down on the hardware, I guess? Seem to be a few odd decisions but I hope it will be a success. I'm sure it will be big in Japan, but who knows about the rest of the world.
But a lot of people seem down on the hardware, I guess? Seem to be a few odd decisions but I hope it will be a success. I'm sure it will be big in Japan, but who knows about the rest of the world.
ShockingAlberto
Member
I think this is also a hard question to answer right now because, whether people want to admit it or not, emotions are coloring their analyses.
samuraidino
Member
If it somehow manages to grab the general public maybe.
But looking outside of america,that's a very hefty price,and will be super hard to justify when you've got PS4s and Xbones selling for a whole lot less during the bargain seasons. Add to that the relative uncertainty of its future third party support and you could be seeing another WiiU.
It'll sell out for the first few months,mostly thanks to the scarcity,but once the gotta buy it before everyone else does attitude is gone,it's not gonna continue doing that.
But looking outside of america,that's a very hefty price,and will be super hard to justify when you've got PS4s and Xbones selling for a whole lot less during the bargain seasons. Add to that the relative uncertainty of its future third party support and you could be seeing another WiiU.
It'll sell out for the first few months,mostly thanks to the scarcity,but once the gotta buy it before everyone else does attitude is gone,it's not gonna continue doing that.
Fox Mulder
Member
Fail.
Nintendo is at best a secondary console just to play their games. $300 and yet another paid online service. Nope.
Nintendo is at best a secondary console just to play their games. $300 and yet another paid online service. Nope.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Nope.
Unless they undership you'll be able to walk into a store and buy one on launch day.
- 32gb memory card lol
- Expensive controllers
- Another paid online service
- No Mario until the holidays
- Weakest launch lineup I've seen in ages
The casuals aren't going to buy this. This is worse then Wii U, which actually launched with big names and Mario.
Unless they undership you'll be able to walk into a store and buy one on launch day.
- 32gb memory card lol
- Expensive controllers
- Another paid online service
- No Mario until the holidays
- Weakest launch lineup I've seen in ages
The casuals aren't going to buy this. This is worse then Wii U, which actually launched with big names and Mario.
shark sandwich
tenuously links anime, pedophile and incels
Hell no. This is gonna do to Nintendo's handheld market what Wii U did to their console market.
Gotdatmoney
Member
I went from believer to totally sure its dead on arrival. Nintendo lost there damn minds
It's kind of difficult to tell this early on, but at this point it's definitely feeling a lot like the Wii U to me. Launch is definitely hurting it, which the "MUST HAVE!" game for many (myself included) is essentially a port of a game for a console they likely already own. Super Mario Odyssey looks amazing, but that's not out until the end of the year, and Splatoon 2 isn't even in the launch window.
I would love to be proven wrong, though. I love Nintendo and the games they release.
I would love to be proven wrong, though. I love Nintendo and the games they release.
get2sammyb
Member
It's going to do very well in Japan, I have no doubt about that. Similarly, I think it will perform much better than the Wii U globally. That said, I think it's going to have a tough time in Europe, particularly in the UK. And I'm still not overly convinced it's going to do anything better than adequate in the US.
I think it depends how you define "success" really. It will get the big games it needs to sell reasonably, but at this point in time, I'm still not sure I fully understand who the Switch is for outside of the dedicated Nintendo fanbase. Hopefully that will become clearer in time.
I think it depends how you define "success" really. It will get the big games it needs to sell reasonably, but at this point in time, I'm still not sure I fully understand who the Switch is for outside of the dedicated Nintendo fanbase. Hopefully that will become clearer in time.
ElectricKaibutsu
Member
No way. It's too expensive and won't have any games for a long time, when it's way too late to build momentum.
Sgt. Garlic
Member
I really doubt it. I'm expecting something between Wii U and GameCube numbers. But we'll see what happens.
PdotMichael
Banned
Right now I don't think it will be more successful than the WiiU.
peanutbutterlatte
Member
If youd asked me after the reveal video a ways back, I'd have said yes.
Now though? Nah. Nintendo have priced themselves into oblivion, and as always the purely bizarre, stubborn choices are just going to be their downfall.
Now though? Nah. Nintendo have priced themselves into oblivion, and as always the purely bizarre, stubborn choices are just going to be their downfall.
friskykillface
Banned
It'll be better than Wii u but not by a lot
They fucked up hard on that presentation
I'm pretty sure Xbox one s and ps4 slim will be $250 on the weekend of Switch release
They are lucky to have Zelda breath of the wild launch because that title is their saving grace for its launch
They fucked up hard on that presentation
I'm pretty sure Xbox one s and ps4 slim will be $250 on the weekend of Switch release
They are lucky to have Zelda breath of the wild launch because that title is their saving grace for its launch
Certainly not at first.
Initial pricing, launch lineup, game prices, pricing of peripherals and paid online gaming is awful.
Weak hardware, only 32GB of (expandable) internal space.
Competition from PS4 which has a library of ~1300 games, is much more powerful (=way superior multiplats) and will be sold for ~250 USD/EUR at the time of Switch's launch.
Initial pricing, launch lineup, game prices, pricing of peripherals and paid online gaming is awful.
Weak hardware, only 32GB of (expandable) internal space.
Competition from PS4 which has a library of ~1300 games, is much more powerful (=way superior multiplats) and will be sold for ~250 USD/EUR at the time of Switch's launch.
CitizenCope
Member
Maybe a little more successful than the WiiU. So no.
Possumowner
Member
TheKastorian
Member
Will do much better than the Wii U, just not as good as PS4 or XB1.
sir_bumble_bee
Member
Too early for me to say, let's see how it does come holiday season
30yearsofhurt
Member
I don't think is the handheld console Japan will want.
It's not the home console NA wants.
It's way too overpriced for EU.
Outside of Mario Odyssey and Zelda (which you can get for the WiiU) I can't see the attraction? HD ice cube rumble?
I may be very wrong but I can't see anything to get excited about it yet.
It's not the home console NA wants.
It's way too overpriced for EU.
Outside of Mario Odyssey and Zelda (which you can get for the WiiU) I can't see the attraction? HD ice cube rumble?
I may be very wrong but I can't see anything to get excited about it yet.
DrunkShogun
Member
Not for this year at least. It's a shame but I can't see the average casual gamer buying at this price and that's the market that makes the console successful. I'm out myself until they've got a better lineup and there's nothing currently announced for the end of the year other than zelda that is a day one purchase. 3rd party support hasn't shown any indication of supporting the low first party content.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Will have a strong launch due to a solid hardcore due to a solid nintendo fanbase, but don't see it being an overwhelming success in the long run.
Dwight Schrute
Member
How did GAF went from HYPE (reveal teaser) to DOA ? Just the price ?
After Nintendo's presentation, I would have thought no. But then I read all the negative comments on Gaf and thought back to everybody's predictions for the PS4 and Xbox One in the thread that was recently dug back up. I am now convinced that the Switch will be an almighty success.
I am going to go ahead and define a success for this system as selling 40 million units. Based on that, I think the Switch has a chance to make it, but there need to be some more games in the first six months of its lifetime, in order to avoid comparisons with the WiiU. Right now, the first six months look quite desolate, so I hope the treehouse stream will show us a few extra games (and those ports that leakers have been talking about) to fill up the release schedule a bit more. In the fall, we are looking at a Super Mario release and possibly a Xenoblade Chronicles 2 release (slated for 2017), so the fall and holiday period seems fine.
The system is quite expensive, so I imagine a price cut during the holidays could make reaching the goal easier. We don't know of any big AAA third party support outside of 360 games (Skyrim and FIFA, which both have a last gen version), so I have my doubt that they will come, and as a result, the Switch will be at a disadvantage compared to the PS4 and Xbox One.
The Switch can pull extra sales out of the handheld market, and we can safely assume that the handheld market is paying attention to the system, what with a SMT game being announced and other handheld games coming as well. This driving force might take the Switch to the target, but it will mean a shrinkage of the Nintendo market as compared to the "previous gen"(3ds + WiiU).
The system is quite expensive, so I imagine a price cut during the holidays could make reaching the goal easier. We don't know of any big AAA third party support outside of 360 games (Skyrim and FIFA, which both have a last gen version), so I have my doubt that they will come, and as a result, the Switch will be at a disadvantage compared to the PS4 and Xbox One.
The Switch can pull extra sales out of the handheld market, and we can safely assume that the handheld market is paying attention to the system, what with a SMT game being announced and other handheld games coming as well. This driving force might take the Switch to the target, but it will mean a shrinkage of the Nintendo market as compared to the "previous gen"(3ds + WiiU).
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