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Bonus Round: E3 2012 Preview [Up: Part 5: Thrid Parties Again]
- Thread starter Shadowlink
- Start date
Exterminieren
Banned
I don't really see how this stacks up, when the PSP was vastly outselling Vita when competing against the DS. This seems to be far truer of last gen than of this.
No need to get quite that defensive. I never claimed any great knowledge, just a recognition that Pachter has a history of skewed analysis of the area.
I'm sure Pachter's perfectly capable of defending himself; doesn't really need your help.
shira
Member
Well when he gets on the Bonus Round I'll be sure to agree with him. tbh I don't think any of their opinions were any good. We need some non-industry people on that show
Or you could agree with him right here, right now when he's using an argument with actual facts behind it.
JimmyRustler
Gold Member
I don't realy understand Pachter's 3DS argument. It's not like cellphones games are something new. The way I see it people who used to play Snake now play Angry Birds. Therefore I think that people who actually bought the DS will also buy the 3DS.
Just look at what's selling best on iTunes. That sure are not games someone bought a DS for, sorry.
Just look at what's selling best on iTunes. That sure are not games someone bought a DS for, sorry.
Henry Jones Jr
Member
They did do well last gen with the DS even with the PSP out but the market was larger then and able to support more consoles. If the market shrinks by half this handheld generation, that could mean that Sony will be twice the problem they were before for Nintendo--which admittedly still might not be much considering how the Vita has stumbled out of the blocks.
And you are right, the 3DS might do "fine," but it probably will not do DS numbers over its lifetime--that thing had crazy legs. And that is Pachter's, the handheld market will get smaller and smaller and it won't be the money printing device that it used to be for Nintendo. They need to start making up money elsewhere. This makes the Wii U extremely important for their future.
Exterminieren
Banned
People who don't appear on Bonus Round are allowed opinions, and your opinion is not automatically right just because you do.
Sorry if I'm bursting any bubbles over here.
Ahahahahahahahaha.
Did Pachter just go one from arguing that people only want cheap games to saying all phones will be smartphones by next year? Pretty sure the market of people who want a cheap and cheerful phone that does the basics isn't going away and it will a long time before smartphones are around £10. And good luck winning a bet saying Apple will target that end of the market.
This is the problem when people assume everyone lives the same as they do.
This is the problem when people assume everyone lives the same as they do.
Henry Jones Jr
Member
I think he said in 3-4 years pretty much all phones will be smart phones. I don't think that is a wild guess. The stock of non-smartphones at AT&T and Verizon has been shrinking rapidly for for the past 3 years. And you can get many smartphones right now for $0.99 with a 2 year contract, including the iPhone3s.
They get the same thing wrong that everyone gets wrong going into the new generation: Thinking that what's important now will be important then. They already point out Wii * won't be as important going into next gen and I'd believe that. But they seem to assert things like CoD will (or at least will matter more than the Wii/Mii series) which I kinda doubt. In fact it's almost never the case the same franchises are important over generations with Mario being one of the only exceptions.
Hardware is to the point of diminishing returns, that's why 360 and PS3 haven't cut their plugs as well, people still think they are good hardware. However, they started so high priced that only now are they reasonable. It took them an entire generation to get to where Wii started. But just like with Wii, the thing is people are buying iPads and they don't give a fuck about graphics. Another round of $500 beasts isn't appealing anymore and even then UE4 and the like look tepid at best. I think this is where the technophile line of thinking doesn't make for good predictions.
The whole casual thing and whether or not the get them back seem hinged on "apps." Basically to get the largest audience you appeal to the largest number of tastes. This doesn't mean game genres, this means have the broadest entertainment experience. So what video platforms you support, book platforms, music platforms, even social networking. This is something game consoles are typically bad at, whereas things like tablets excel. This is where you start selling to casuals next-gen. My parents may only game on rare occasions and only buy a few but a great Netflix box is highly valuable and if it plays games too then that's a great gateway. I think that's part of the plan behind the tablet interface. Decoupling the TV has great advantages as does the tablet interface in this area and this is what I think a lot of people including BonusRound crew are missing.
Hardware is to the point of diminishing returns, that's why 360 and PS3 haven't cut their plugs as well, people still think they are good hardware. However, they started so high priced that only now are they reasonable. It took them an entire generation to get to where Wii started. But just like with Wii, the thing is people are buying iPads and they don't give a fuck about graphics. Another round of $500 beasts isn't appealing anymore and even then UE4 and the like look tepid at best. I think this is where the technophile line of thinking doesn't make for good predictions.
The whole casual thing and whether or not the get them back seem hinged on "apps." Basically to get the largest audience you appeal to the largest number of tastes. This doesn't mean game genres, this means have the broadest entertainment experience. So what video platforms you support, book platforms, music platforms, even social networking. This is something game consoles are typically bad at, whereas things like tablets excel. This is where you start selling to casuals next-gen. My parents may only game on rare occasions and only buy a few but a great Netflix box is highly valuable and if it plays games too then that's a great gateway. I think that's part of the plan behind the tablet interface. Decoupling the TV has great advantages as does the tablet interface in this area and this is what I think a lot of people including BonusRound crew are missing.
Don't know whats so wrong about Pachters little comment, that sony is "stealing" some marketshare from 3DS.
Of course they are, since they both go for the same audience.
Nintendos audience is even bigger and not only "20-30 years old core gamers", but there are still people who decide between (PSP/)Vita and 3DS.
He doesn't say that Sony is a big danger from them.
He thinks that Smartphones are the real "enemy".
Of course they are, since they both go for the same audience.
Nintendos audience is even bigger and not only "20-30 years old core gamers", but there are still people who decide between (PSP/)Vita and 3DS.
He doesn't say that Sony is a big danger from them.
He thinks that Smartphones are the real "enemy".
I'm talking non contract £10 phones, which considering his schoolkid example is the perfect device. If all they need it for is a way to be always contractable PAYG is ideal and that would mean shelling out over £300 for an iPhone. Doubt a parent will trust their six year old with a device of that worth.
Also anyone who thought the WiiU controller was a Wii peripheral really needs to reconsider their position as a gaming journalist. Anyone who was following the run up to E3 knew about the rumoured tablet and I'm pretty sure it is their job to be in the know. Quite frankly is it disgraceful.
CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
They want it multitouch just to want it to be mutitouch. There is no actual application for it to be multitouch. That's what gets ignored whenever it's brought up. There is no real reason to have it. Which makes using it as a negative in regard to Nintendo just stupid.
They basically went: "Now for some info on our next system. This is the controller".
Apparently orchestral Zelda music kills people's hearing.
And it doesn't matter about the showing. They should have been aware of what was coming before hand. If GAF can learn about it I expect the media to do the same.
Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
Regarding handheld gaming, I think the way the market has changed simply places more emphasis on the importance of software over hardware.
What needs to be recognized though is that the handheld and smartphone markets are more different than is often thought. For example, I can't conceive Angry Birds, at any price-point, being a system seller for a Nintendo or Sony handheld.
What needs to be recognized though is that the handheld and smartphone markets are more different than is often thought. For example, I can't conceive Angry Birds, at any price-point, being a system seller for a Nintendo or Sony handheld.
"We're going to show our new console today. But first, this stuff!"
*shows stuff*
"Okay, time for our new console!"
*shows Wii U*
I really don't think it's too much to ask for a journalist to be fucking paying attention during the most important press conference of the year.
Portugeezer
Member
Boring show, you get more from the Wii U speculation thread on the gaf.
thestopsign
Member
The PSV is doing horribly in comparison to the PSP. It is taking a much smaller bite of the market than the PSP was in 2005. In Japan it is dead in the water without much hope, North America it has a bit of life, with only promises for a better future, and Europe is probably pretty similar to NA. I don't think Nintendo has to worry about Sony stealing away the core gamer in the handheld market, I think it's Sony that has to worry about Nintendo stealing away the core market.
I noticed in the opening, Keighley introduces Pachter as "Pachattack's Michael Pachter". But that's barely 5% of what he is. It's no secret that Pachter is in the investment business. He's not a journalist, and (no offense intended) he's not a gifted broadcaster likely to host a television show.
Michael Pachter's business is to provide advice to institutional investors. He's always been very open and honest about this, but I don't think the gamespress is particularly transparent when they include him in discussions. His job is to provide proprietary market analysis. So he can explain to a pension manager (for example) why they might or might not invest in Activition (for example).
So part of what he does is try to put his finger on the pulse of where gamers will spend their money in Q4. But when he's on a popular show for gamers, he's in a position to emphasize or downplay certain games/companies which correspond to the interests of his career and/or the interests of the large Financial Services company he represents. And investments can be long or short (or packaged up in any number of ways). So what he's saying may not even correspond to what his own internal analysis says. The truth is we really can't know what Pachter's interests are when he 'provides analysis' on the Bonus Round.
I'm not assuming ill-will on anyone's part. I've heard Pachter explain what he does in several places. But when GT announces him as if he's just a member of the gaming press as opposed to what he is, that's a real failure to inform.
And he's on practically every episode. Popular press people like Jeff Gerstmann or Garnett Lee or Brian Crecente are on frequently, but Pachter is nearly a co-host. Does anyone question this?
Disclaimer: I paused the show after Keighley introduced him to type this. I haven't seen the content of the show.
Michael Pachter's business is to provide advice to institutional investors. He's always been very open and honest about this, but I don't think the gamespress is particularly transparent when they include him in discussions. His job is to provide proprietary market analysis. So he can explain to a pension manager (for example) why they might or might not invest in Activition (for example).
So part of what he does is try to put his finger on the pulse of where gamers will spend their money in Q4. But when he's on a popular show for gamers, he's in a position to emphasize or downplay certain games/companies which correspond to the interests of his career and/or the interests of the large Financial Services company he represents. And investments can be long or short (or packaged up in any number of ways). So what he's saying may not even correspond to what his own internal analysis says. The truth is we really can't know what Pachter's interests are when he 'provides analysis' on the Bonus Round.
I'm not assuming ill-will on anyone's part. I've heard Pachter explain what he does in several places. But when GT announces him as if he's just a member of the gaming press as opposed to what he is, that's a real failure to inform.
And he's on practically every episode. Popular press people like Jeff Gerstmann or Garnett Lee or Brian Crecente are on frequently, but Pachter is nearly a co-host. Does anyone question this?
Disclaimer: I paused the show after Keighley introduced him to type this. I haven't seen the content of the show.
Father_Brain
Banned
I'm doubtful that it'd be accurate to call Angry Birds a system seller for any platform, honestly.
The only bit of news is one of them saying the Wii U is gonna to have a decent line up of games at E3.
From the way he talked about it, it won't just be decent. Will be better than that.
Hot Coldman
Banned
Oh, Vitality Sensor. The eternal butt of the joke.
Father_Brain
Banned
Well, he's at least correct that it's inevitably going to fall behind DS. Too bad sales won't rebound much until the August NPD.
BassForever
Member
LOL at anyone thinking WiiU will be more then 299
Well mentioning a new console and new controller together caused confusion last year so imagine having to cope with details of TWO systems and a new controller. Won't somebody think of the media?
I wouldn't be surprised if it's 349 or even 399...
ThisWreckage
Banned
Nintendo consoles always start out so promising and then they swan dive in terms of software and potential. It happens with every Nintendo console. But this benefits Nintendo because expectations become so low. They could walk out on stage, show a new Zelda and Mario game for Wii U and nearly all of GAF would be impressed. This always happens.
It will confuse "casuals" with the way he phrased it but do they even watch e3 to begin with?
Every Nintendo system? Pokemon on GameBoy? Yoshi's Island and DKC3 on SNES? The DS until Nintendo prematurely killed it off in order to increase 3DS sales?
Also it's funny they talk about the "Hardcore Nintendo fan" who buy anything Nintendo when this was the generation so many "Hardcore Nintendo fan" felt betrayed by Nintendo.
If you go back to old Bonus Rounds they said Wedbush MOrgan Securities Michael Pachter. They even said it at e3 last year.
You bring up a reasonable point that Pachter is in a position to undermine and puff up companies but I don't see their (GT or Pachter) recent behavior as disingenuous,
I think right now, there are more people playing Angry Birds and iOS games than there were playing Snake. Cellphone gaming became a legitimate threat to Nintendo and Sony's handhelds when smartphones emerged as a device on par with dedicated gaming handhelds with superior multi-media functionality.
The DS sold a lot of casual games like Brain Age and Nintendogs. Those experiences are easily replicated on smartphones. The large growth in DS owners that bought for those type of casual experiences now own cellphones that satiate their desire for five minutes of mindless entertainment. Nintendo is still going to be able to attract their core demographics that bought previous Nintendo handhelds like GBA and GB, but they are going to have difficulty attracting the number of people that made NDS a big success.
That is why in Pachter's opinion the 3DS is killing Nintendo. When you are a stock market analyst or an investor the most important thing is to see growth. Nintendo is not only not growing on the handheld side but they are losing market share to iOS games that replicate the Nintendogs and Brain Age experiences for a much cheaper price. That is the issue Nintendo has to overcome. Sony is in even more trouble with the price point they are at and how they too are fighting a losing battle with Nintendo to win over the core gamer.
Power Stranger
Banned
Pachter (1) Says controversial things and (2) Gets his name in the industry headlines, is (3) Then considered a industry expert by investors and industry outsiders. Thus, (4) Pachter makes more money.
So really, at the end of the day, much of what this lovable goon has to say, should not be taken without the proper dosage of FDA approved organic seasalt.
So really, at the end of the day, much of what this lovable goon has to say, should not be taken without the proper dosage of FDA approved organic seasalt.
The guy has no idea what he's talking about.
If there aren't expectations for the 3DS to outpace or fall behind the NDS's sales trajectory in the long run it it makes sense. I don't believe spin would be the right word to describe it though.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I can understand his concern about the 3DS, although calling it dead is an exaggeration. I don't think anything will make it hit the astronomic heights the DS did.
However, bringing up the Vita and saying that it is chipping away at the hardcore base is absolutely ridiculous. That thing is tanking big time right now.
However, bringing up the Vita and saying that it is chipping away at the hardcore base is absolutely ridiculous. That thing is tanking big time right now.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
AceBandage
Banned
It is?
The 2 year contract is the reason so many people still don't have smartphones. You can pay $7 a month for a cell phone if you use a pay as you go plan, and that's all many people can afford.
Depends on whether Nintendo can create a new generation of Touch! Generations software. And whether 3DS game prices default to $30 instead of $40.