A smaller team has even more incentive to NOT focus on Kinect. Making a game for PC would be ultimately where to go as there are far more PC's in the world than XBO's, even PC's dedicated to gaming. Then they could port that game to PS4 and XBO, but it won't be using Kinect.
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Bonus Round - Is Time Running Out For Xbox?
- Thread starter iNvid02
- Start date
A smaller team has even more incentive to NOT focus on Kinect. Making a game for PC would be ultimately where to go as there are far more PC's in the world than XBO's, even PC's dedicated to gaming. Then they could port that game to PS4 and XBO, but it won't be using Kinect.
Is he necessarily assuming it would all be in launch month? I think the safer bet, and what MS is looking for at this point, would be an extra 75k/mo through September. This is also the number at which they can say "if we had software at launch, it would have sold 5M through the end of calendar 1Q14."
famousmortimer
Banned
I honestly can't wait to be insulted by a legion of journalists who will proclaim "Titanfall is the first real reason to own a next gen console."
Because I own all of them already. Does that make me some sort of asshole? Is it also bad that I liked Ryse and Knack? That I like next gen madden and fifa much more than last gen? That i would rather play BF4 with my friends on the ps4 than my pc with randoms?
You know that line is going to be in at least 50 reviews. I'm already mad about it
Because I own all of them already. Does that make me some sort of asshole? Is it also bad that I liked Ryse and Knack? That I like next gen madden and fifa much more than last gen? That i would rather play BF4 with my friends on the ps4 than my pc with randoms?
You know that line is going to be in at least 50 reviews. I'm already mad about it
Led_Zeppelin
Member
As always Pete it is great to read your thoughts, mostly because even though everyone knows you have a personal preference towards Sony the analysis you make for the situation is completely level headed and coherent.
I wonder what would MS do if Titanfall doesn't move the units they are hoping to move, I guess we will find out as soon as stuff start to go south, since MS has been really quick with is movements to try to change the course of the ship when Xbox was been hit with bad news after bad news (The Titanfall announcement about being an exclusive, the Titanfall bundle after bad sales during January and most likely February, the remove of all the anti consumer politics after low preorders after E3, etc etc).
Optimus Lime
(L3) + (R3) | Spartan rage activated
I wonder if an argument can be made for the Mom and Pop market having moved to iOS and Android, for the most part, where they were on the Wii last gen, and the audience for consoles has become far more informed regarding the technical specifics of their devices because the culture calls for it.
What I mean is - one of the ways by which people participate in online dialogues pertaining to video games is through rigorous analysis of hardware, and through a really violent and abrasive form of tribalism. In enthusiast spaces like Gaf and Eurogamer, I don't see a lot of passive consumption of video game media anymore - I see everyone, from teenagers, to 40-somethings, to far older traditionalists, engaged in really intricate, complex, and sophisticated conversations that were once the domain of hardcore enthusiasts. It's not as simple or binaristic as 'console wars', or any other buzzword - there's an inclusivity in conversations surrounding technology which encourages casual consumers to engage through the language, ideas, and obsessions of the enthusiast.
I don't think that Microsoft anticipated this. I think they thought that Master Chief and XTREEM ATTITUDE or whatever would be enough to pull them through. I don't think they understood that their audience is far more savvy than they realised, and that the 15 year olds who once obsessed over Master Chief and Feenix, are now talking about resolution, framerates, tesselation, and anti-aliasing. Sony has benefited from this - but, similarly, has not prepared for the kind of scrutiny that their customer base will be engaging in.
Jessie.Bristol
Member
For established developers, yes. I'm talking about garage developers, people who don't have studios. The barrier to entry is very low when all you need to do is register and have your Xbox One that you bought out of a store be your "development kit." The same thing happened with the Xbox Live Indies program. The barrier to entry was very low, the Xbox 360 was their dev kit and so the system seen a ton of support.
Only now with Unity taking over for the Xbox Games Studio platform, it is giving much easier access to Kinect development as well as allowing developers to utilize Microsoft's dedicated servers.
Do you disagree with the theory that competition is good for a market under capitalist philosophy?
Paracelsus
Member
Time will never run out because they were never really legitimate competitors anywhere but in America.
Last gen has really warped perception of people regarding Europe and Japan about the XBOX brand. Microsoft is doing just fine in the United States and that's where they will probably take back the lead sooner or later, that's where they should focus because that's the only place where they really only have chances of pulling it off.
Last gen has really warped perception of people regarding Europe and Japan about the XBOX brand. Microsoft is doing just fine in the United States and that's where they will probably take back the lead sooner or later, that's where they should focus because that's the only place where they really only have chances of pulling it off.
Look at January NPD. Same situation in stores & PS4 managed to sell twice the numbers.
#the thirst is real
HORRORSHØW
Member
Standby for Titan
Fall.
While I think the myriad articles proclaiming an early demise for the Bone is premature, there is no doubt they (MS) need to change public perception about their system. The price drops and bundles are not instilling confidence; in fact, they may be putting people off from purchasing one soon knowing another price drop may be imminent.
free
While I think the myriad articles proclaiming an early demise for the Bone is premature, there is no doubt they (MS) need to change public perception about their system. The price drops and bundles are not instilling confidence; in fact, they may be putting people off from purchasing one soon knowing another price drop may be imminent.
bigbaldwolf86
Banned
Giving away your biggest title of the year and cutting the price is a desperate move to shift consoles. I can't see how it can be anything else. MS want to try and reduce the lead that Sony has and this price cut/bundle is a test to see how the market reacts. The consumer is the winner of course.
I agree about giving away Live though. They could hook that customer for the next 5 years if they give people a reason to keep buying it.
Competition is great for the market. But Microsoft doesn't have to be around for the sake of competition. If MS fell out of the console race tomorrow (which they won't) it will be because of their own mistakes and folly. Someone else would rise to the challenge and enter the market.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Hey you said it.
Uhhh... yeah.
Liking "bad" games makes you a bad person.
Somewhere between pedophile and politician.
Now you're just getting crazy here.
I can feel the rage.You know that line is going to be in at least 50 reviews. I'm already mad about it
Like an unwanted enema.
Time after time, many posters (including some moderators like Y2Kev themselves) have explained why consoles having sales parity with each other or "we should support the other company that's doing terrible for the sake of competition!" is meaningless as a whole.
Show me where competition is defined as competitors having to perform good under capitalist philosophy
Glorified G
Member
This is not making much sense. An indie dev can still develop for Xbox One and have the flexibility for 6 other platforms. Why would they handcuff themselves and design their game around a specific peripheral and limit themselves too one platform only?
Syphon Filter
Member
How you know for sure someone would rise to the challenge?
famousmortimer
Banned
Microsoft has been very nimble since Mattrick left. They have been great at responding to what people (and developers) want. But you only get to make a first impression once.
There are some things they just can't be nimble on though. Like price. A quick price cut kills consumer confidence. It also doesn't take into account that the path that MS has laid out to be profitable is severely altered if they start eating $100 more dollars per sale. It's questionable if that's a hole they can dig out of financially. That's why the vita price cuts have been sooooooooo slowwwwwwwww. There was no proof that the cuts would increase sales past a month or two and then whatever little profitability they had would be lost.
Nintendo took a huge gamble with the 3DS and it paid off. They don't seem to be willing to do that with the wii u though. There's a reason for that... if it doesn't pay off it buries you.
Hades Hotgun
Banned
Yeah, people talk about this game and that game as being system sellers, but Sony didn't succeed by relying on the strength of any single titles.
The PS1 and PS2 are particularly known for their massive libraries, more so than their exclusive games. The sizable amount of exclusives they had were mostly from Japan and were simply a product of overwhelming market domination, not any plan to lock up exclusivity.
This actually brings up something I saw in another thread yesterday night - the assumption that Kinect's success was a breakout hit into the blue ocean. How much of that market is the 15-year-old that discovered Halo 1 now being 30 and buying a peripheral for his family?
Mainstream capitalism recognizes that competition is not always beneficial, and that natural monopolies often occur in industries with high fixed costs.
Conversely, capitalism is also predicated on the idea that entities will choose the action which will give them the highest return - and even if we assume that the Xbone could turn into another X360, MS would still see a higher projected return simply dropping the money in an index fund.
Chobel
Member
We don't, but that's usually what happens. Also PS4 is already is having competition from Nintendo,PC and mobile.
Syphon Filter
Member
If they have a sku without kinect and one with it wouldn't they not lose that much?
Regarding Titanfall's impact, I think the 360 and PC versions will outsell it quite significantly. Maybe it's an obvious fact since there are more of those platforms in the wild, but this game has been billed as an Xbox One exclusive since it's reveal. Pachter is probably not far off with 500 thousand new consoles for the game, & even then I'd say that high-balling it.
I have really taken to the "competition is necessary" people because I feel that their position hides some inherent biases that I share and it makes me sad. The truth is that Microsoft (to Sony, and Sony to Microsoft) doesn't need to be in the market at all for there to be incredibly tense competition.
Only when we contort ourselves so artificially (which the hardcore do artificially well) do we need to look at this industry through the lens of Sony vs. Microsoft. There's this hidden supposition that without Microsoft, "arrogant Sony" would have run away with things last time out even though they were charging $600 and we'd all be worse off for it. It's just not true. It's based on the idea that without competition from Microsoft the natural order of things continues unabated. The reality is that Sony alone would just have bombed last gen and the money that would have been funneled into the PS3 would go elsewhere-- into books or movies or board games or gardening or mobile phones or whatever. There's no imperial fiat requiring people to purchase consoles. The market would have just died. That's your competition and that is what would have kept Sony in check.
The point is, ultimately, that we're discounting market forces that aren't Microsoft for absolutely no reason. Inevitably these platform holders are going to have to face down the mobile dragon at some point. They'll either react and adapt or they'll die. They don't need to compete with each other for this to be true.
Microsoft could leave the industry tomorrow and Sony would still face competition so fierce we struggle every day to give its fair credit.
Anyway, yes, consumers having choices is good, but it still has nothing to do with the performance of those choices.
Only when we contort ourselves so artificially (which the hardcore do artificially well) do we need to look at this industry through the lens of Sony vs. Microsoft. There's this hidden supposition that without Microsoft, "arrogant Sony" would have run away with things last time out even though they were charging $600 and we'd all be worse off for it. It's just not true. It's based on the idea that without competition from Microsoft the natural order of things continues unabated. The reality is that Sony alone would just have bombed last gen and the money that would have been funneled into the PS3 would go elsewhere-- into books or movies or board games or gardening or mobile phones or whatever. There's no imperial fiat requiring people to purchase consoles. The market would have just died. That's your competition and that is what would have kept Sony in check.
The point is, ultimately, that we're discounting market forces that aren't Microsoft for absolutely no reason. Inevitably these platform holders are going to have to face down the mobile dragon at some point. They'll either react and adapt or they'll die. They don't need to compete with each other for this to be true.
Microsoft could leave the industry tomorrow and Sony would still face competition so fierce we struggle every day to give its fair credit.
Anyway, yes, consumers having choices is good, but it still has nothing to do with the performance of those choices.
For what it's worth, the Titanfall bundle is climbing the Amazon charts as we get closer to launch, along with the standalone software:
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-...pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=1737241102&pf_rd_i=468642
...but the PS4 is still at the top, after 3 or 4 days of stock.
The real story now depends on how this dynamic changes tomorrow, since at that point it's essentially the equivalent of release date delivery. Are people still buying more PS4s than X1s right at Titanfall's launch window? Or is Amazon too biased of a sample?
If it helps any, recent economic theory and empirical results completely and overwhelmingly supports the points you've been making regarding competition.
http://www.amazon.com/best-sellers-...pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=1737241102&pf_rd_i=468642
...but the PS4 is still at the top, after 3 or 4 days of stock.
The real story now depends on how this dynamic changes tomorrow, since at that point it's essentially the equivalent of release date delivery. Are people still buying more PS4s than X1s right at Titanfall's launch window? Or is Amazon too biased of a sample?
If it helps any, recent economic theory and empirical results completely and overwhelmingly supports the points you've been making regarding competition.
Weren't they last place worldwide last generation?
Jessie.Bristol
Member
An established Indie dev with funds, yes. But, someone working on almost no budget will not have the money to spend on "6 other platforms." If they already own an Xbox One, then they do not need to spend additional money on development kits (like the PlayStation 4). Granted they could also develop for PC (using Steam or several other digital distribution platforms). But we have seen games made for Kinect on Xbox 360 with XBLI, it's these smaller games that will probably define the Kinect more so then any First Party or Multiplatform AAA titles will.
This is something that both Sony and Nintendo should be thinking about. Once Microsoft opens the doors to being able to develop on the platform you will see a flood of content (perhaps more when the platform matures a bit, in like 2015 - 2016). The same thing happened with Xbox 360. They had a flood of content come in from developers who may never have had a chance on consoles (or the means to do so as the costs of dev kits are still too high for many).
famousmortimer
Banned
Sure. And I think that's what we will see. But I still don't think it will be anytime soon. Pachter says MS wanted to sell 10 million XB1's by the end of this year. That means they ordered the parts for 10 million kinects. They still haven't broken 4 million. So if the kinectless sku takes off, they are sitting on a giant pile of kinects that they paid for but made them no money. That's a hard thing to overcome. Halo 2 anniversary with a larger install base isn't going to make up for eating that much money.
robertsan21
Member
MS got themselves to blame! Hopefully they will try better next time or pull out of the gaming buisness. Someone else will fill the spot!
How in the world is it an empty story to have a roundtable discussion regarding sales 4 days before the February numbers come out?
This is central to the industry.
Personally, I don't think that Microsoft "probably" will take back the lead in the US either, but it's tough to say.
PhantomFear
Member
I walked by the Microsoft store in downtown Boston's Prudential Center mall today. Every employee had a Titanfall shirt on, the Xbox One/Titanfall bundle was placed in dead center of the entrance, and there was a large Titanfall cardboard sign. A few minutes later (and hundreds of feet away from the store) I noticed this random glass case by a candy store that had Titanfall game cases and an Xbox One. That case was completely random and seemed entirely out of place.
I got the feeling that MS REALLY wants/needs TF to be a huge success, and the hype machine was in full effect at that mall. Oddly enough, none of the Xbones at the store had any videos or demos of the game. But why show the game when you can just tell everyone how amazing it's going to be,I guess.
I got the feeling that MS REALLY wants/needs TF to be a huge success, and the hype machine was in full effect at that mall. Oddly enough, none of the Xbones at the store had any videos or demos of the game. But why show the game when you can just tell everyone how amazing it's going to be,I guess.
Goodacre0081
Member
is Pachter under the impression that you need a PScamera to broadcast on PS4 or did I hear that wrong?
Phatosaurus
Member
Glad to see the gloom and doom article writers have got a secound console to prod with a stick now.
All the WiiU stuff was wearing thin.
All the WiiU stuff was wearing thin.
Certainly my impression was that Pachter meant over the lifetime of the game that it would probably add 500k XBone owners. Which is probably pretty fair, assuming the 360 version is not a total mess.
As for the whole Kinect discussion I really don't think they will unbundle as they'll continue to push it as a major control mechanism for the consoles wider entertainment ambitions.
I think he was just referring to broadcasting while having your face on the screen. Whereas anyone with an Xbox One will be able to do that since the camera in included.
Imperfected
Member
But, but, monopoly!
Will say the people whose functioning concept of a monopoly seems to be derived from the board game.
famousmortimer
Banned
I'm a competition is good type of person for one reason.... what Madden turned into after EA bought the license.
It may be stupid to base my entire philosophy off of that one thing, but holy shit they really stopped giving a fuck once 2K was out of the picture.
That said, the competition doesn't have to be microsoft. If microsoft fucks up so badly that they leave, that's on them. I don't think they deserve to stick around because we need competition. I guess that's the difference between the madden situation (buying exclusivity) and the idea of MS failing. EA didn't make madden better, they just bought the rights to any football game. Sony got better this gen, microsoft got worse. That's not anything Sony did to them...
Nydius
Member
I agree completely. I never bought the idea that Titanfall was going to move many XBO units because most of the people I know who bought XBO units at launch mentioned Titanfall as one of the future reasons for buying the console. It will appeal to people who already have an XBO, and they may sell some units based on people who were simply waiting for the game to come out before buying the console.
Meanwhile, those with 360s who haven't bought into the XBO are going to see the game available for 360 two weeks later and say, Why should I drop the money on a whole new console when I can get the same/similar gameplay experience here? Then there's people (like myself) who can basically give the middle finger to Microsoft, buy a PS4, AND play Titanfall on PC.
I suppose it would have been better to wait until after the February numbers come out. Then we can start to establish a trend, instead of just looking at one post-Holiday month of sales.
But then, once February numbers come out, it'll be better to wait for March numbers and so on and so forth.
But that's the absolutely crucial difference between the consoles and Madden cases -- one is a de facto monopoly due to the signing of exclusivity (Madden). The other one is a potentially more concentrated market with the exit of one player, but with the potential of entry by a number of additional competitors.
Roughly, the effect of competition in a concentrated market can work through two venues: the threat of entry and the selling of durable goods in a dynamic setting. Both are reasonable expectations for the videogame market.
Essentially, competition is good -- but competition comes through venues other than the direct ones, and it also requires that the market actually has the power to determine winners and losers.
Syphon Filter
Member
Yea didn't think about that but can't they sell those kinects separately for those that bought a sku without it but then later on decide they want one?
The difference there is that EA ensured that there was no competition whatsoever. As long as Microsoft and Nintendo continue to manufacture consoles, they still exist as competitors.
Syphon Filter
Member
Weren't they second with 360?
Hades Hotgun
Banned
No, you see, if not for the 360, then Sony would have kept the PS3 at $600 FOREVER!
WE MUST KEEP THE BALANCE!