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Digital Foundry claims mid-generation Switch hardware refresh was once planned, but no longer happening and next-gen is next

Ronin_7

Banned
i think the new Nintendo console MUST BE BACKWARDS COMPATIBLE or they are fucked.

The current switch is custom ARM, with NVIDIA ARM based GPU, so I think they are waiting on NVIDIA to make a new ARM based variant GPU. They can't go with QUALCOMM or Adreno. I dont think the new console will suffer the same fate as WiiU.

It would be nice to play switch games on switch 2 with upscaling, increase fps, among other improvements that they can release on patches. I think Nintendo is nervous but i think they will get it right.
They're definitely working with Nvidia. Switch 2 needs to have a transition from Switch like PlayStation 4 had to PlayStation 5 or Xbox One to Xbox Series.
 

Gaelyon

Gold Member
The next Nintendo console is the Switch VR. You'll either play it on regular TV without VR, or put it on your head for VR on.
 

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
My guess is that the “Switch Pro” was just the oled, and that the nvn2 and custom Orin(Ampere+Ada gpc) rumors are the actual Switch 2 that was being prepared for either late 2023 or early 2024 release.
It will be interesting as getting RT to work in a handheld at non ridiculous performance and battery hit will not be easy…
The next Nintendo console is the Switch VR. You'll either play it on regular TV without VR, or put it on your head for VR on.
Uhm… Switch with a VR mode like an extension of the Labo idea… 🤔. Not new for them, but not bad: they do need a far better screen (90-120 Hz, 60 Hz will not cut it outside of Labo like / cardboard VR experiments).
 
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Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
They're definitely working with Nvidia. Switch 2 needs to have a transition from Switch like PlayStation 4 had to PlayStation 5 or Xbox One to Xbox Series.
I think right now they could have software based BC with a semi custom design from AMD… it is now or. A much more difficult switch (no pun intended) later on once they start depending on their HW RT units, Tensor cores, DLSS, etc… before NVIDIA digs their claws in too deep. NVIDIA had a cheap and performant mobile solution before AMD had RDNA2 based solutions ready, which are a great portable design…

Think about what AMD have Valve for SteamDeck and now think about a mobile focused variant of Zen 4 + RDNA3 with some sprinkling of future products and/or customisations designed to make BC easier for Nintendo.
 
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sinnergy

Member
I think right now they could have software based BC with a semi custom design from AMD… it is now or. A much more difficult switch (no pun intended) later on once they start depending on their HW RT units, Tensor cores, DLSS, etc… before NVIDIA digs their claws in too deep. NVIDIA had a cheap and performant mobile solution before AMD had RDNA2 based solutions ready, which are a great portable design…

Think about what AMD have Valve for SteamDeck and now think about a mobile focused variant of Zen 4 + RDNA3 with some sprinkling of future products and/or customisations designed to make BC easier for Nintendo.
And now think of Nintendo being cheap .. nice dream though . All their stuff is mostly outdated when it hits the shelves.

What you get will be even less than what steam deck has now 🤣 and you will like it . And will sell millions .
 
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Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
And now think of Nintendo being cheap .. nice dream though . All their stuff is mostly outdated when it hits the shelves.

What you get will be even less than what steam deck has now 🤣 and you will like it . And will sell millions .
Possibly, but I think AMD could deliver it and give Nintendo a better deal (AMD is very very hungry and happy to do semi custom solutions with partners and they now have very mobile friendly designs… more platforms powered by RDNA2 derivatives the better for AMD).

Given how bigger and faster mobile chipsets are becoming (it is difficult to scale them up efficiently, look at Apple even… starting strong with A14/M1 and now with M2 and projected Ultra designs performance updates gen on gen tapering off), I would be ready to pounce on Android again with a Zen 4+ or Zen 5 design targeting phones and tablets… AMD’s biggest problem is how costly it is to ramp up volume which is a chicken and egg issue as that becomes easier if you can guarantee it… I do think Xbox One, PS4, XOX, PS4 Pro, XSX|S, and PS5 design wins plus Steam Deck and all the other AMD based gaming handhelds like the AyaNeo2 are making a great case for AMD. They are delivering it.
 

Rykan

Member
Nintendo's sales historically have been lowest when they DON'T introduce a new gimmick and go for more of an iterative approach.

SNES sold less than the NES, N64 sold less than the SNES, and the Gamecube sold less than the N64. You could point to competitive reasons for why they sold less, but Wii had just as much competition but broke the mold and their handhelds have had similar patterns. Gameboy Advance sold less than the Gameboy, 3DS sold less than the DS.

Nintendo is acutely aware of this, but human nature suggests not fixing what isn't broken, but human nature also suggests that many families are happy enough to play the existing games out on Switch now.

Mario Kart and Animal Crossing are by far the best-selling Switch games. It's really difficult to get people who are perfectly happy with Mario Kart on the Switch to buy a Switch 2 for Mario Kart 9, especially for iterative graphics, when that wasn't the selling point to begin with.

The biggest success of the Switch was increasing the attach rate for specific franchises: Mario Kart, Zelda, and Smash have all reached new heights on the Switch.

A Switch 2 has a very high mountain the climb and a Switch 2 might have been better suited to bridge the gap between iterative and experimental. We'll have to see, especially if the price proves too high for many families to justify. I'd say Nintendo will wait out the recession and try to release the most powerful system they can within that 300-400 dollar price range. The problem is the longer they wait, the more people will eventually shift to a PS5 or Xbox Series.
The thing is that you're trying to point to a pattern that doesn't exist. These consoles sold less than its predecessors for very different reasons that are unique to each system

The SNES sold less than the NES because the SNES was released in a much more competitive environment because of the Sega Megadrive/Genesis. The N64 sold less because Nintendo used cartridges which led to high prices for games and made the system unappealing for third party publishers due to high production costs for cartridges. Even more so because Nintendo's policies for third party publishing on Nintendo hardware were quite brutal and most third party devs were happy to jump ship when an alternative arrived.

The Gameboy Advance sold less than the original Gameboy because it came out in 2001 and was replaced in 2004 by the DS, which was BC with the GBA I might add. The 3DS sold less than the original DS because the dedicated handheld gaming market has seen an enormous decline because of the increasing popularity of mobile gaming, which is also why the Switch is a hybrid system.

Saying that Nintendo's sales have historically been the lowest when they don't introduce a new gimmick is also inaccurate. Their worst selling systems are the virtual boy and the WiiU. Both systems that were innovative or gimmicky depending on who you ask.
 
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The thing is that you're trying to point to a pattern that doesn't exist. These consoles sold less than its predecessors for very different reasons that are unique to each system

The SNES sold less than the NES because the SNES was released in a much more competitive environment because of the Sega Megadrive/Genesis. The N64 sold less because Nintendo used cartridges which led to high prices for games and made the system unappealing for third party publishers due to high production costs for cartridges. Even more so because Nintendo's policies for third party publishing on Nintendo hardware were quite brutal and most third party devs were happy to jump ship when an alternative arrived.

The Gameboy Advance sold less than the original Gameboy because it came out in 2001 and was replaced in 2004 by the DS, which was BC with the GBA I might add. The 3DS sold less than the original DS because the dedicated handheld gaming market has seen an enormous decline because of the increasing popularity of mobile gaming, which is also why the Switch is a hybrid system.

Saying that Nintendo's sales have historically been the lowest when they don't introduce a new gimmick is also inaccurate. Their worst selling systems are the virtual boy and the WiiU. Both systems that were innovative or gimmicky depending on who you ask.

The thing is you're pointing to competition, but the reason why competitors prevailed in those cases was the lack of evolution.

The N64 used cartridges rather than evolving to use CDs.

The DS was released because GBA sales dried up pretty quickly.

You note that the 3DS declined because of the popularity of mobile gaming, but the Switch was made into to a hybrid system to overcome this... which is evolution... literally making my point...

The Virtual Boy and the Wii U are exactly why Nintendo is fearful of innovative systems, but they don't tend to innovate until they're pushed into a corner.
 

shiru

Banned
I'm glad to see that you don't let the fact that none of this happened stop you from having unrealistic expectations.

It's probably also worth clarifying that having 4 "Teraflops" =/= power even remotely comparable to a Series S console. Teraflops are not at all an indicator of a console's capabilities.
If you do insist on using Teraflops as a benchmarks, take a look at the Steamdeck. The Steamdeck has about 1.6TF GPU.

Take a good look at the size and the price of the Steamdeck. Now look at the price and size of a Switch. Now back to Steamdeck. Now back to Switch. Steamdeck one more time. Switch.

It's not happening. Start having realistic expectations. If they do take a Switch 2.0 approach, you'll probably get something along the lines of an Xbox One/PS4 in best case scenario. It might be able to do a 4k image, but actual fidelity will be along the lines of those systems.
1.4/1.7 tf in portable mode, 3tf~ docked. Hope that's not too unrealistic for a handheld in 2024.
 

kungfuian

Member
Think their next machine should be the Switch AR

IMO a socially focused Augmented Reality machine would be a huge success for them. Imagining people gathered around in circles (at the table, on the playground, etc) looking into the same shared Pokémon battle or isometric Smash Bros style game. Collect cards/Amibos for each game and throw them down into any game. Walk up and request to join a game or view as a spectator. Or imagine an isometric table top style 4 player Mario. So many of their franchises seem like a fit for this type of machine (others that come to mind- Mario Party, Rabbids, Pikmin, Animal Crossing)

Basically the system would offer movable virtual windows into whatever game worlds they want to make with a focus on sharing those worlds. And of course it would still be a hybrid so games could switch to tv/docked modes, playable in a more traditional way (with more fixed camera views), and it would support traditional Switch games with enough power to act as a Switch Pro.
 
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The only thing that I could see throwing a wrench in the Super Switch BC plans would be if Nvidia is charging too much that Nintendo sees it as an obstacle. They’ve always released a lower cost console to make it accessible to children as a large part of their audience. I don’t think they would risk starting over with a fresh library though, their management is too business focused now to take such a large risk. It gives me confidence that both BC and Switch eshop purchases will carry forward. If they don’t do this, they will be eaten alive.
 

Rykan

Member
The thing is you're pointing to competition, but the reason why competitors prevailed in those cases was the lack of evolution.

The N64 used cartridges rather than evolving to use CDs.
The reason the Megadrive prevailed is because it was a much better system than the Mastersystem was. Sega beat Nintendo to market with a 16 bit system, they had a very aggressive advertisement campaign and they had a really good lineup of games which were , above all else, much more marketable than before. There's a really good episode of High Score on Netflix about this if you'd like to know more, or you can read Console Wars.

Realistically, there's not much Nintendo could have done to avoid losing marketshare. They went from having no competition to very competent competition.

You're correct in saying that the N64 using cartridges instead of the much more cost efficient CD's is what caused them to lose even more marketshare, but that's not really what you said. You said that there was a decline due to a lack of gimmicks. Storage space is not a gimmick. The Ninendo 64 was much more innovative than its competitors were, despite the storage space.
The DS was released because GBA sales dried up pretty quickly.
Huh? The GBA sold over 80 million units until it was replaced by the DS just 4 years later. How many systems have sold 80m in just 4 years?
You note that the 3DS declined because of the popularity of mobile gaming, but the Switch was made into to a hybrid system to overcome this... which is evolution... literally making my point...

The Virtual Boy and the Wii U are exactly why Nintendo is fearful of innovative systems, but they don't tend to innovate until they're pushed into a corner.
I'm not making your point. I've never argued against the notion that Nintendo is very successful due to its innovation. However, you initially argued that previous consoles saw decline due to a lack of gimmicks and that Nintendo was at their lowest when they didn't include gimmicks and went for a more iterative approach and I'm sorry mate, but both of those claims are simply inaccurate.
 
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diffusionx

Gold Member
Maybe we are all thinking about this the wrong way. Dare I say, it’s ON.


9QUA0wp.jpg
 

Zathalus

Member
But it’s not getting the latest 🤣 it’s Nintendo …
The Tegra chip launched a few months ago, it seems the next switch won't come out until 2024 so by that time it would be 1.5-2 years since it was available. Same as the current Switch and the Tegra X1 chip. So it seems likely.
 

Spokker

Member
The mid-generation refresh was cancelled due to... confusion.

But honestly I love what Nintendo has with the Switch. It feels like a waste to throw it all away for a brand new system with its own games, controllers and so on. A mid-generation refresh was truly all that the Switch needed for those of us who felt that we just needed a little more power.
 
The reason the Megadrive prevailed is because it was a much better system than the Mastersystem was. Sega beat Nintendo to market with a 16 bit system, they had a very aggressive advertisement campaign and they had a really good lineup of games which were , above all else, much more marketable than before. There's a really good episode of High Score on Netflix about this if you'd like to know more, or you can read Console Wars.

Realistically, there's not much Nintendo could have done to avoid losing marketshare. They went from having no competition to very competent competition.

You're correct in saying that the N64 using cartridges instead of the much more cost efficient CD's is what caused them to lose even more marketshare, but that's not really what you said. You said that there was a decline due to a lack of gimmicks. Storage space is not a gimmick. The Ninendo 64 was much more innovative than its competitors were, despite the storage space.

Huh? The GBA sold over 80 million units until it was replaced by the DS just 4 years later. How many systems have sold 80m in just 4 years?

I'm not making your point. I've never argued against the notion that Nintendo is very successful due to its innovation. However, you initially argued that previous consoles saw decline due to a lack of gimmicks and that Nintendo was at their lowest when they didn't include gimmicks and went for a more iterative approach and I'm sorry mate, but both of those claims are simply inaccurate.


3rd party support and lack of censorship really helped the genesis. I don't need to watch High Score. I was there... It's also possible that had they partnered with Sony and brought a CD add-on to the SNES that it could have enhanced their sales. There are other problems with that deal, but from a unit sales perspective, the lack of innovation certainly hurt the SNES against the competition. There was barely any growth in that generaiton

I said innovation not just gimmicks. Whether you see changing storage as a gimmick or not, doesn't change the fact that it was a risky change in design that Nintendo did not take.

Between The DS sold 115 million units and the 3DS came out in 2011. Less than 6.5 years, that's 17 million over a longer period of time and with direct competition from the PSP. The reality is that the GBA was not selling well enough and wasn't going to be able to compete against the PSP. The GBA didn't sell poorly, but sales were drying up and were going to significantly dry up with competition.

Again, you say gimmicks, but the reality is its risk taking and innovation, and its a fact.
 

Aldric

Member
I'm not sure how useful that info is. He doesn't give a timeline for when the "mid gen refresh" was supposed to be released. Surely he can't mean the hardware that was rumored to be released alongside the new Zelda, because that'd mean the Switch would last for another 7 years without a true successor which doesn't make much sense. Likewise the rumored specs for this system based on the Nvidia hack seem far too powerful for a mere revision.

So basically what he meant is that the Mariko Switch from 2019 might have been a slightly more powerful version of the base system but it was scrapped in favor of battery life, something we already know. So the only significant piece of info if you can call it that is that he doesn't think it'll be released next year, which seems like a bizarre missed opportunity since Tears of the Kingdom seems like the perfect game to launch a new system with. In any case I hope that song and dance ends soon because we've talked about a new more powerful Switch for years now and it's getting tired.
 

Rykan

Member
3rd party support and lack of censorship really helped the genesis. I don't need to watch High Score. I was there... It's also possible that had they partnered with Sony and brought a CD add-on to the SNES that it could have enhanced their sales. There are other problems with that deal, but from a unit sales perspective, the lack of innovation certainly hurt the SNES against the competition. There was barely any growth in that generaiton
Yeah when you were probably like 5 years old. Come on mate. The idea that having a CD add on would suddenly skyrocket the SNES sales even further is absurd and ridiculous. It did nothing for the Sega Megadrive and it did nothing for the TurboGrafix 16. The SNES sold slightly less than the NES because of increased competition. Saying it's due to a lack of "innovation" is absurd.
I said innovation not just gimmicks. Whether you see changing storage as a gimmick or not, doesn't change the fact that it was a risky change in design that Nintendo did not take.
No, you specifically said gimmicks.
Nintendo's sales historically have been lowest when they DON'T introduce a new gimmick and go for more of an iterative approach.

You didn't even use the term innovation up until this very post. Having a different storage solution doesn't fit the term "gimmick" at all. When we're thinking gimmick, we think about the Wii motion controls. The DS stylus or the Wiiu gamepad. Not storage solutions. Even more so, if we look past just the cartridges, the N64 was actually a very innovative system. It came with 4 controller ports out of the box and the controller was specifically designed for 3D games and came with an analog stick. It was also one of the (If not the?) first controller to support the rumble feature.

Between The DS sold 115 million units and the 3DS came out in 2011. Less than 6.5 years, that's 17 million over a longer period of time and with direct competition from the PSP. The reality is that the GBA was not selling well enough and wasn't going to be able to compete against the PSP. The GBA didn't sell poorly, but sales were drying up and were going to significantly dry up with competition.

Again, you say gimmicks, but the reality is its risk taking and innovation, and its a fact.
I'll be honest, I'm not really sure what you're trying to argue here mate. How does the GBA selling like 80 million units in 4 years fit into your narrative that Nintendo is at its worst if it doesn't introduce a gimmick? The only reason it falls behind other handhelds like the original Gameboy is because it was replaced sooner. I fully agree if you were to argue that Nintendo's biggest successes come from their innovative systems (or gimmicky, if you will) like the Wii, DS and Switch. But saying that their biggest flops are when they are just iterating is simply not accurate.
 
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Does Nintendo make a profit on Switch?

MS loses $100-$200 on Xbox Series S|X. I don't know about Sony.

Assuming Nintendo does make a profit and want to continue to make a profit it would NOT be in their best interest to use the latest fabrication process. Perhaps 5nm+, 1440p HDR, VRR, NVIDIA 2080/3080 ARM based GPU, with strong emphasis on 120fps, and finally DLSS type upscaling. Nintendo doesn't want to get into the blood bath of best 4k performance.
 

Celcius

°Temp. member
Does Nintendo make a profit on Switch?

MS loses $100-$200 on Xbox Series S|X. I don't know about Sony.

Assuming Nintendo does make a profit and want to continue to make a profit it would NOT be in their best interest to use the latest fabrication process. Perhaps 5nm+, 1440p HDR, VRR, NVIDIA 2080/3080 ARM based GPU, with strong emphasis on 120fps, and finally DLSS type upscaling. Nintendo doesn't want to get into the blood bath of best 4k performance.
Nintendo definitely makes a profit... that's why they use such old hardware instead of going bleeding edge like Sony and MS. They don't spend more than they have to. Also, when the OLED switch came out they didn't eat the cost increase... they raised the price of the system and had the consumers pay for it.
 
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