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[jfkgoblue]

Great article on Fivethirtyeight about how you can't necessarily blame a bad Democrat candidate for the result, but that this was more about how the Rust Belt has been slowly turning its back on Democrats.

The strong relationship between Obama’s relative shift in approval ratings and Clinton’s performance held in most of the swing states too.3
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL VOTE MARGIN OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING IN STATE RELATIVE TO NATION
STATE 2012 2016 CHANGE 2012 2015 CHANGE
Maine +15.3 +2.7 -12.6 +2 -5 -7
Iowa +5.8 -9.4 -15.2 +2 -5 -7
New Hampshire +5.6 +0.4 -5.2 -2 -6 -4
Wisconsin +6.9 -0.7 -7.6 +2 -1 -3
Ohio +3.0 -8.1 -11.1 -1 -4 -3
Michigan +9.5 -0.2 -9.7 +3 +1 -2
Pennsylvania +5.4 -0.7 -6.1 -1 -3 -2
North Carolina -2.0 -3.7 -1.7 -1 -2 -1
Minnesota +7.7 +1.5 -6.2 +2 +1 -1
Florida +0.9 -1.2 -2.1 0 0 0
Georgia -7.8 -5.2 +2.6 -2 -2 0
Nevada +6.7 +2.4 -4.3 -2 -1 +1
Arizona -9.1 -3.5 +5.6 -4 -2 +2
Colorado +5.4 +4.9 -0.5 -2 0 +2
Virginia +3.9 +5.3 +1.4 -2 0 +2
Clinton underperformed more where Obama’s approval rating dropped most
SOURCES: GALLUP, DAVE LEIP’S ATLAS OF U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, DAVID WASSERMAN

Clinton did better in 20164 than Obama did in 2012 in three swing states5: Arizona, Georgia and Virginia. Those three states, along with Colorado and Nevada, also happen to be where Obama saw the biggest improvement in his relative approval rating in 2015 compared to 2012. That suggests that at least some of the movement toward Democrats in these states wasn’t about Clinton and Trump but was reflective of a longer term trend of these states becoming more Democratic-leaning.

At the other end of the spectrum, Obama’s approval rating relative to the nation dropped in all the Midwestern states that were key to the 2016 election, including Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin. It also fell off in Pennsylvania. The movements in some of these states were not that large, but they didn’t need to be: A number of the states that made up the mythic “blue wall” were never that much bluer than the country as a whole. Pennsylvania, for instance, was less than 2 percentage points more Democratic than the nation in 2012.

EDIT: oops forgot to include the link
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...n-the-midwest-was-getting-redder-before-2016/

 

[TangoAlphaLima]

Link me, brah.

 

[jfkgoblue]

Link me, brah.

My bad, edited.

 

[Neoweee]

For what it is worth, it seems like this analysis got Harry Enten (the author) more in line with his boss (Nate Silver) on thinking about the election. Harry was harsher on Hillary for the first few weeks after the election with regards to the rust belt, while Nate was a bit more measured. See their relevent responses in this week's Slack Chat:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/jill-stein-democratic-spoiler-or-scapegoat/

 

[DietRob]

Thank you captain obvious.

 

[jfkgoblue]

Thank you captain obvious.

It wasn't obvious heading into the election, it also points out that Democrats need to do something other than hand waving this away as Clinton being a bad candidate.

 

[Aurongel]

Thank you captain obvious.

Hindsight is a funny thing, no liberal narrative pre-election made the Rust Belt out to be as pivotal as it ended up being. Of course though, everyone likes to act like they have Nate Silver levels of foresight now that the data has been made into history.

 

[FZZ]

Wonder how much this has to do with voter suppression and gerrymandering

538 trying to explain this election a little funny tho, CIA just came out and said Russia definitely played a role in trying to get Trump elected

Just need to see if there was any tampering or not

 

[Cipherr]

It wasn't obvious heading into the election, it also points out that Democrats need to do something other than hand waving this away as Clinton being a bad candidate.

Thats already been happening for some. But for the holdouts, thats going to be impossible. They are deadset and don't appear to be capable of nuance when it comes to Hillary at all.

 

[Iksenpets]

Wonder how much this has to do with voter suppression and gerrymandering

538 trying to explain this election a little funny tho, CIA just came out and said Russia definitely played a role in trying to get Trump elected

Just need to see if there was any tampering or not

Gerrymandering doesn't influence presidential votes, and Russia's schemes are focus on destroying Clinton in the media and through online disinformation, not actually hacking results, which is virtually impossible without getting caught. Voter suppression is a legitimate concern, though, though this data seems to show a consistent shift in states regardless of whether they added new restrictions or not.

 

[jfkgoblue]

Wonder how much this has to do with voter suppression and gerrymandering

538 trying to explain this election a little funny tho, CIA just came out and said Russia definitely played a role in trying to get Trump elected

Just need to see if there was any tampering or not

Voter suppression, maybe, but gerrymandering means nothing in presidential elections.

And bringing up Russia doesn't change the fact that the Rust Belt was already shifting red.

 

[tuxfool]

It wasn't obvious heading into the election, it also points out that Democrats need to do something other than hand waving this away as Clinton being a bad candidate.

Yes it was. Everybody knew the Rust belt was slowly turning red. There are plenty of posts on this forum to prove it. What wasn't obvious is whether it would happen so quickly.

 

[Neoweee]

Wonder how much this has to do with voter suppression and gerrymandering

538 trying to explain this election a little funny tho, CIA just came out and said Russia definitely played a role in trying to get Trump elected

Just need to see if there was any tampering or not

A lot of things can be true. Russia mattered, the FBI mattered, the Trump campaign knowing about the FBI letter mattered, non-optimal campaign strategy mattered, Hillary mattered, message mattered, anti-establishment wave mattered, the bitter primary mattered, and Republicans being Republicans to rally around their candidate no matter how terrible he is mattered.

 

[jfkgoblue]

Thats already been happening for some. But for the holdouts, thats going to be impossible. They are deadset and don't appear to be capable of nuance when it comes to Hillary at all.

All that really matters is if the people up top of the party realize this. So there is still hope for the Dems.

 

[Neoweee]

All that really matters is if the people up top of the party realize this. So there is still hope for the Dems.

Millions more voters voted for her over Sanders. The problem goes wildly beyond the top of the party.

 

[AbortedWalrusFetus]

You could also explain this by pointing to Democratic policy shift toward neoliberalism and away from labor/middle class during that timespan. The change in favorability could be the symptom of that. Clinton still could have lost be being a bad candidate, because she was a candidate that embodied why they fell out of favor

 

[Jarmel]

Yes it was. Everybody knew the Rust belt was slowly turning red. There are plenty of posts on this forum to prove it. What wasn't obvious is whether it would happen so quickly.

There were concerns but not to the extent of what we're looking at now. Wisconsin in particular was a red flag.

 

[jfkgoblue]

Yes it was. Everybody knew the Rust belt was slowly turning red. There are plenty of posts on this forum to prove it. What wasn't obvious is whether it would happen so quickly.

I can easily point to many posts which said "Hillary has an electoral lock" or Republicans are facing a Demographic impossibility, which made no sense if people knew it was shifting. All the "blue wall" comments that included 3 states that Trump won, show that most didn't realize this.

 

[valkillmore]

Thank you captain obvious.

This is a Diet Post

Edit:

I think most would find this article and information informative, hence why it's been published. It's news. It's meant to inform. Did you see Trump coming years ago?

 

[tuxfool]

I can easily point to many posts which said "Hillary has an electoral lock" or Republicans are facing a Demographic impossibility, which made no sense if people knew it was shifting. All the "blue wall" comments that included 3 states that Trump won, show that most didn't realize this.

As I noted, most people (at least those that pay attention to this stuff) felt that it was safe for one more election, but there has been a noted red trend in these states.

 

[Kettch]

Yeah, Clinton did about expected against possibly the worst presidential candidate we've ever seen. That doesn't make her a good candidate, it makes her a terrible candidate.

There are more things to take away from the election than simply her, but running a candidate that more people like than dislike would definitely be helpful.

 

[jfkgoblue]

As I noted, most people (at least those that pay attention to this stuff) felt that it was safe for one more election, but there has been a noted red trend in these states.

I understand what you are saying, but many in the media and here were convinced that we would never see another Republican president for a generation, which would indicate that they did not realize that this shift was happening.

Most people who actually understand politics know that in this country we will always have 2 strong political parties on opposing sides of the argument, and that anyone claiming that we are seeing the death of one doesn't really understand politics.

 

[NoblesseOblige]

It wasn't obvious heading into the election, it also points out that Democrats need to do something other than hand waving this away as Clinton being a bad candidate.

It was pretty obvious. At least here in Michigan. I mean... we elected Snyder. I think we were just in denial.

 

[teruterubozu]

A major chunk of those states voted for Sanders in the primaries.

Great article on Fivethirtyeight about how you can't necessarily blame a bad Democrat candidate for the result

See I don't know about that. Clearly she just wasn't the preferred candidate.

 

[Frozenprince]

A major chunk of those states voted for Sanders in the primaries.

And here we go.

 

[teruterubozu]

And here we go.

Well honestly there's nowhere to go. Tis done.

 

[Finalizer]

People saw the general trend already, the shocker was how hard they all shifted in this single election. The expectation was that Iowa and Ohio would probably flip, but hardly anyone foresaw the others going with them; the expectation was that they'd be shifting red around the same time Georgia and Arizona would go blue due to gradual changes in demographics. Trump definitely had a stronger effect in the Midwest than most folks anticipated; the only question now is whether there are still votes that can be recovered by a Democrat candidate who properly campaigns in those areas or if Trump has truly accelerated a trend.

 

[Aaron Strife]

A lot of things can be true. Russia mattered, the FBI mattered, the Trump campaign knowing about the FBI letter mattered, non-optimal campaign strategy mattered, Hillary mattered, message mattered, anti-establishment wave mattered, the bitter primary mattered, and Republicans being Republicans to rally around their candidate no matter how terrible he is mattered.

For example, like they say in the 538 article you can blame Hillary's campaign for slacking in Wisconsin and Michigan, but those two states alone wouldn't have given her the win.

 

[jfkgoblue]

It was pretty obvious. At least here in Michigan. I mean... we elected Snyder. I think we were just in denial.

I am from Michigan, but I chalked up Snyder to us having midterm Governor elections and the state house and senate to gerrymandering.

I'll be the first to admit that I wasn't the most knowledgeable in the intricacies of political movements and shifts though. This article isn't aimed at the political experts, but more at the people like me, who follows politics, but doesn't obsess over them.

 

[AnAnole]

White people gonna white

 

[MIMIC]

I haven't read the whole thing, but they're only using Gallup's data up to 2015? So what if 2016 data tells a completely different story?

If you look at Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, you have negatives for 2015 (using Huff posts averages)

June 2015
Ohio: -9.5
Michigan: -1.7
Pennsylvania: -10.4
North Carolina: -8.2
Wisconsin: +0.8 (August 2015)

All similar to Gallup's dismal marks. But when you look at this year:

October 2016
Ohio: +1
Michigan: +3.7 (November 2016)
Pennsylvania: +5
North Carolina: +2
Wisconsin: +8.3

Obama was in the positive territory near the election. These numbers wouldn't suggest that Democrats were losing those states (if we're basing it off of Obama's job approval)

BTW, here's the link I used (I just changed the name of the state in the link to get the different state polls)

 

[LUFTRAUSER]

Thank you captain obvious.

That's funny, I remember hearing a lot about a big blue wall...

 

[old]

Great article on Fivethirtyeight about how you can't necessarily blame a bad Democrat candidate for the result, but that this was more about how the Rust Belt has been slowly turning its back on Democrats.


EDIT: oops forgot to include the link
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...n-the-midwest-was-getting-redder-before-2016/

Because the Dems turned their backs on the Rust Belt.

 

[Havoc2049]

Oregon is next. Oregon is getting more and more red each election cycle.

 

[Discordian_taco]

White people gonna white

If I said "Black people gonna black" do you think that post would be tolerated? Lets cut this shit out.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Oregon is next. Oregon is getting more and more red each election cycle.

lolwut? Obama won it in 2012 with a 12 point margin and Clinton won it with an 11 point margin, which makes its Democratic tilt slightly higher this year than the last election.

I mean I was much more wrong than I thought I was about Wisconsin and Michigan so maybe I shouldn't be so confident here but I don't see the trend here.

 

[Neoweee]

Yeah, Clinton did about expected against possibly the worst presidential candidate we've ever seen. That doesn't make her a good candidate, it makes her a terrible candidate.

There are more things to take away from the election than simply her, but running a candidate that more people like than dislike would definitely be helpful.

She's been the most admired woman in America for the last 14 years, and one of the most popular public figures on and off at various times over the last 20 years.

For example, like they say in the 538 article you can blame Hillary's campaign for slacking in Wisconsin and Michigan, but those two states alone wouldn't have given her the win.

Yeah, there's a lot of nuance to the electoral math. People cling to WI and MI as possible mistake, while ignoring PA. Or saying that the Rust Belt would have won it for her, neglecting that pulling resources from elsewhere could have lost her through NV or CO. Or that a different Republican candidate could have won VA, CO, NV out of the "wall" and won that way, without a Rust Belt push.

There's more nuance than a lot of arm-chair strategists like to admit. It's a lot easier to get pissy and say "You should have picked MY candidate in the primary, despite him getting millions fewer votes."

 

[Slayven]

Interesting cause stuidies like this are coming out

http://time.com/4585232/white-deaths-exceed-births-united-states/

More white Americans are now dying than being born in a third of U.S. states, according to a study released Tuesday, which shows white deaths outpacing births in a record 17 states stretching from California to Maine.

The study, by the University of New Hampshire, found natural decreases in the white population across 17 states in 2014, including Florida, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, which together comprise 38% of the U.S. population. That’s a big shift from 2004 when only four states had more white deaths than births. The declines, exacerbated by the Great Recession, are largely driven by an aging white population, fewer women of childbearing age, and lower fertility rates overall, according to researchers.

The rust belt is literally dying

 

[GloriousBagel]

White people gonna white

Those same white people voted for Obama, sit down dawg.

 

[XMonkey]

People saw the general trend already, the shocker was how hard they all shifted in this single election. The expectation was that Iowa and Ohio would probably flip, but hardly anyone foresaw the others going with them; the expectation was that they'd be shifting red around the same time Georgia and Arizona would go blue due to gradual changes in demographics. Trump definitely had a stronger effect in the Midwest than most folks anticipated; the only question now is whether there are still votes that can be recovered by a Democrat candidate who properly campaigns in those areas or if Trump has truly accelerated a trend.

Ding ding ding.

 

[FLEABttn]

White people gonna white

If I said "Black people gonna black" do you think that post would be tolerated? Lets cut this shit out.

The racism in Michigan and Ohio is palpable. Acting like it's not a thing in the rust belt is naive.

 

[mo60]

People saw the general trend already, the shocker was how hard they all shifted in this single election. The expectation was that Iowa and Ohio would probably flip, but hardly anyone foresaw the others going with them; the expectation was that they'd be shifting red around the same time Georgia and Arizona would go blue due to gradual changes in demographics. Trump definitely had a stronger effect in the Midwest than most folks anticipated; the only question now is whether there are still votes that can be recovered by a Democrat candidate who properly campaigns in those areas or if Trump has truly accelerated a trend.

Watch PA and WI because those two states are the most likely to turn blue again. For example, if democrats can win some of the counties surrounding philadelphia county that state is likely to turn blue again.

 

[mo60]

lolwut? Obama won it in 2012 with a 12 point margin and Clinton won it with an 11 point margin, which makes its Democratic tilt slightly higher this year than the last election.

I mean I was much more wrong than I thought I was about Wisconsin and Michigan so maybe I shouldn't be so confident here but I don't see the trend here.

Yeah. Oregon is not turning red anytime soon.The urban counties like WA in oregon are too heavily democratic which makes it impossible for republicans to win oregon now.. Trump almost maxed out the amount of votes he can get in a state like Oregon in this election. The current brand of the republican party is to toxic to win states like Oregon and Washington. Her reduced margin in oregon like minnesota can be partially blamed on high third party support.

 

[DorkLord54]

Interesting cause stuidies like this are coming out

http://time.com/4585232/white-deaths-exceed-births-united-states/



The rust belt is literally dying

It's not just dying: it's brightest and smartest are moving out of these states, mostly to Chi-Town (probably one of the big reasons it remains a bastion of blue in a sea of red, as it siphons off workers from these more depressed states), and these people aren't being replaced by newcomers or other natives, thus making them trend redder as the poorer residents' quality of life declines with no real answers in sight.

This (the migration of blue-leaning individuals out of certain states) also relates to the Dems' biggest problem, in that they are at a geographical disadvantage, as they tend to coalesce in denser, population-heavy regions that, while containing a significant portion of the country's population, allow the GOP to dominate due to the Jeffersonians purposely making it so that there were systems in place that made sure that the US favors rural interests at a national level.

The racism in Michigan and Ohio is palpable. Acting like it's not a thing in the rust belt is naive.

I mean, it's the most racially-segregated major region in the country. I don't know how people are surprised by remarks relating to racism when Cleveland, Detroit, and Milwaukee were all destroyed by racially-motivated white flight, and continue to suffer due to it. I mean, it's a very real possibility that Macomb was what gave Michigan to Trump (which also means that, while Sanders might have possibly helped with turnout in Michigan, there's a real possibility that Trump would've won the state regardless since Clinton won Macomb), which was one of the main benefactors of Detroit's decline, and its politics show that, as it's considerably more conservative than Oakland (surprisingly, though it's been trending blue for some time now, despite L. Brooks Patterson being the County Executive), Wayne, or Washtenaw counties are.

 

[Kettch]

She's been the most admired woman in America for the last 14 years, and one of the most popular public figures on and off at various times over the last 20 years.

That's all well and good. I think she would have been a solid president myself.

However, her favorables were never positive from the announcement of her candidacy and on. The attacks on her, no matter how unfair, stuck. She was simply not a good candidate.

 

[ezrarh]

It's not just dying: it's brightest and smartest are moving out of these states, mostly to Chi-Town (probably one of the big reasons it remains a bastion of blue in a sea of red, as it siphons off workers from these more depressed states), and these people aren't being replaced by newcomers or other natives, thus making them trend redder as the poorer residents' quality of life declines with no real answers in sight.

This (the migration of blue-leaning individuals out of certain states) also relates to the Dems' biggest problem, in that they are at a geographically advantage, as they tend to coalesce in denser, population-heavy regions that, while containing a significant portion of the country's population, allow the GOP to dominate due to the Jeffersonians purposely making it so that there were systems in place that made sure that the US favors rural interests at a national level.

I recommend everybody read The Big Sort by Bill Bishop which explains this phenomena in a little more detail. It came out in 2008 but it's just as relevant today.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Oregon is next. Oregon is getting more and more red each election cycle.

Oregon has been pretty consistent the last three elections: 8-9 percent more Democrat than the rest of the nation.

I don't find Harry's argument particularly well supported but I do agree with his overall assessment. Wherever you make progress you're apt to lose somewhere else. These things just balance themselves out.

 

[Discordian_taco]

The racism in Michigan and Ohio is palpable. Acting like it's not a thing in the rust belt is naive.

That may be so but generalising a group of people with broad strokes is not constructive...you'd think we learned that after the election.

 

[Kaiterra]

I know I was pretty anxious heading into this election with the way ours have gone in Wisconsin for the past 6 years. Yeah Obama won in 2012 but besides that it's been a GOP-a-palooza pretty much.

Folks here think Scott Walker is some kind of savior for our state, meanwhile our jobs numbers have been in the tank and we're facing big ass budget shortfalls that are forcing municipalities to look for local tax increases and whatnot. And voter ID seems like it's never getting overturned.

 

[TheSeks]

I recommend everybody read The Big Sort by Bill Bishop which explains this phenomena in a little more detail. It came out in 2008 but it's just as relevant today.

Hell, this year's popular "Hillbilly Elegy" fits.

People shouting that most of those folks are racist either haven't gone to rural areas or haven't lived in these areas for long to see that most folks are trying to get by and can't.