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[cw_sasuke]

And? Console market is just two platforms at the moment (PS4 and XOne), but see the difference:

Console: 29 Billion +4.5% growth
Handheld: 1.8 Billion -24.1% decline

The console market being much bigger than the handheld market is nothing news and not even part of my point. Handheld market having worse numbers when one system is dead and the other entering its 6th year - shouldnt be a shock to anyone...regardless of the mobile or other markets.

Without new impulses for the market like VR, One S, PS4 Pro etc. those console numbers would be on decline as well compared to previous years.

 

[Kilrogg]

Isn't 3DS Nintendo's worst selling handheld? Selling even worse than the PSP which was a failure. The Wii U gets a lot of crap but it's not like the 3DS was burning the charts up. I mean GBA was able to make up for the GameCube but Nintendo's profits in this era have been light to non-existent.

I started typing out a reply saying that the PSP sold more than the 3DS, but then I realized it's actually kinda hard to measure how the 3DS performed against the PSP. Here's why:

- The 3DS has currently sold around 60 million units to consumers worldwide as of the end of this year. This number was achieved over a 5-year period. The split is even between regions: 22 million in the Japan, 20 million in the US, and 20 million in the rest of the world.
- The PSP has supposedly sold somewhere between 70 and 76 million units, but a) that's the sell-in number, i.e. sold-to-distributors, b) it was achieved over an 8-year period (it had sold 51 million units by 2009, i.e. 10 million less than the 3DS in 5 years), c) I can't find official sales figures per-region. The last official update on regional sales figures had the exact same split as the 3DS: around 20 million in each region.

Given all that, it's reasonable to assume that the 3DS and PSP performed in the same ballpark, and that whatever edge the PSP had was due to its longer lifecycle, sell-in figures/vs. sell-through, and maybe one region performing better than the others. If anyone has more up-to-date figures, I'll take them.

Make no mistake: yes, the 3DS is Nintendo's worst-selling handheld (the GBA is at 80 million), and yes, the 3DS is definitely a failure given all the hype it had leading up to its launch and coming from the record-breaking DS. Likewise, the PSP was a failure because Sony and everyone else expected it to take the world by storm and wipe the floor with the DS. But no system that sells 60+ million units is a failure, unless that's literally 10 times less than the previous generations or than the competitors.

 

[zelas]

I mean Handheld is just one plattform at the moment with the 3DS about to hit its 6th year - of course it cant compete with the other markets lol.

Handheld wasnt able to compete with mobile even during the prime years of the DS and PSP. Handhelds never showed any hope of fighting off the double digit growth increases mobile was seeing, it's days were numbered years ago.

We could cherry pick any one year of the 3DS and it would always be astonishing just how much the market contracted even compared to just nintendo handhelds. 3DS (handhelds) hasnt been in the same league as other markets since its launch.

Thanks to mobile handhelds are now just another niche like dedicated mp3 players, oferring a technically superior alternative that isnt functionally superior for the lives most people live.

 

[cheesekao]

- The 3DS has currently sold around 60 million units to consumers worldwide as of the end of this year. This number was achieved over a 5-year period. The split is even between regions: 22 million in the Japan, 20 million in the US, and 20 million in the rest of the world.

Not that it matters much but Europe and Asia are separate regions so it's not exactly an even split.

 

[Kilrogg]

Not that it matters much but Europe and Asia are separate regions so it's not exactly an even split.

Ah, good point. So "others" is PAL + Asia then. Gotcha.

 

[Vipu]

Pc gaming confirmed dead, abandon pc while you can!

 

[Cromat]

The dream of a true Pokemon game on mobile is approaching.

 

[Dusk Golem]

Pc gaming confirmed dead, abandon pc while you can!

My sarcasm detector may be brokren, but PC Gaming alone makes almost as much revenue as all console revenue put together. Now that number I imagine also includes what MMOs make, which are huge in China and Korea, so there you go, but it obviously is doing decently to have the growth it's been having recently.

 

[AstroNut325]

That's why Nintendo is marketing it as a home console.

They can call it and market it as a console, but in reality it's a dockable handheld at best.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

They can call it and market it as a console, but in reality it's a dockable handheld at best.

Yeah, marketing ain't going to redo the specs.

 

[gtj1092]

I started typing out a reply saying that the PSP sold more than the 3DS, but then I realized it's actually kinda hard to measure how the 3DS performed against the PSP. Here's why:

- The 3DS has currently sold around 60 million units to consumers worldwide as of the end of this year. This number was achieved over a 5-year period. The split is even between regions: 22 million in the Japan, 20 million in the US, and 20 million in the rest of the world.
- The PSP has supposedly sold somewhere between 70 and 76 million units, but a) that's the sell-in number, i.e. sold-to-distributors, b) it was achieved over an 8-year period (it had sold 51 million units by 2009, i.e. 10 million less than the 3DS in 5 years), c) I can't find official sales figures per-region. The last official update on regional sales figures had the exact same split as the 3DS: around 20 million in each region.

Given all that, it's reasonable to assume that the 3DS and PSP performed in the same ballpark, and that whatever edge the PSP had was due to its longer lifecycle, sell-in figures/vs. sell-through, and maybe one region performing better than the others. If anyone has more up-to-date figures, I'll take them.

Make no mistake: yes, the 3DS is Nintendo's worst-selling handheld (the GBA is at 80 million), and yes, the 3DS is definitely a failure given all the hype it had leading up to its launch and coming from the record-breaking DS. Likewise, the PSP was a failure because Sony and everyone else expected it to take the world by storm and wipe the floor with the DS. But no system that sells 60+ million units is a failure, unless that's literally 10 times less than the previous generations or than the competitors.

I dont personally think PSP is a failure or 3DS. Think the both were reflective of the markets they were in. Just stating the general consensus. Also aren't your 3DS numbers also sell in unless you have some source other than Nintendo.

 

[Harmondale]

And yet mba gaf asks for a vita 2

 

[CrazyArcadia]

Not surprised by those numbers. I am sad about handheld gaming being over since I am a huge fan since it's advent with the Gameboy. Still rocking my 3DS and PS Vita... but really, apart from the new Pokémon game, there hasn't really been a truly huge launch on those devices for quite some while (I know stuff such as Fire Emblem Fates having some good success and making a bit of money for Nintendo - but that's mostly compared to other handheld and niche SRPG games, it's not like it's a headturner for the general public or shareholders).

NeoGAF apart and long time game fans are actually the niche which doesn't realize yet that it's the niche. Talk to some people who you don't know if they play games e.g. at work about gaming and they will all play something... on mobile and browser. Some will maybe even religiously play some strategy or puzzle or gatcha games and if that would be a "console type game" you would say they're hardcore enthusiasts but for some reason we still have that distinction in our heads.

Maybe the Switch will work as a bridge between thise different kind of gaming fans, maybe not, maybe it will be full of new and old fans or maybe it will crash and burn. Whatever it will be, I think it has potential and it will be interesting to see how it will play out next year. Looking forward to it.

 

[The Boat]

Am I supposed to be surprised that the handheld market shrunk when it only has a dead platform and another one that's close to dying?
Not that mobile doesn't have an enormous influence of course.

 

[SumptuousLemur]

So Nintendo is putting all their eggs in the handheld market which has the greatest decline. Because the Switch isn't a console. It's a handheld with a fancy way to connect it to a TV just like a Vita had a PSTV.

Errrrrr

 

[viHuGi]

Switch is going to sky rocket that Console market to >30 billion, 2017 will be one of the best years for Console gaming in history, it's gonna be glorious with Ps4 setting records Xbox One keeps the amazing recovery, Switch launches and sells out, Pro keeps driving core gamers and Scorpio opens big.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

Most people don't buy smartphones to play games. Having a smartphone is like a necessity these days. Everyone has one.

Nobody in my cycle use these devices for games (i only have one game myself. And that exists on PC too). They do download many games but only play them for a few minutes before they uninstall them. There are a few games they do keep and play from time to time. You know, the more popular and better ones. But they only play them when they can't do anything else (like when they are on the bus).

If we have the choice to play on any device, we always prefer a console, a PC, or even a hand-held. I feel like smarphone gaming is only popular because you always have the device on you and lets you kill time when you don't have access to your actual game machines. So it doesn't really compete with the traditional gaming machines.

Millions buy laptops every year to do things not associated with gaming but that doesn't stop people from gaming on them. Should we take out laptops from the overall gaming revenue too?

 

[potatohead]

Console gaming is dead 4ever

 

[Mr Swine]

So Nintendo is putting all their eggs in the handheld market which has the greatest decline. Because the Switch isn't a console. It's a handheld with a fancy way to connect it to a TV just like a Vita had a PSTV.

Errrrrr

Better than putting all eggs in a basket where they only made a home console only

 

[Caipirinha]

Doesn't bode well for the Switch.

 

[redcrayon]

So Nintendo is putting all their eggs in the handheld market which has the greatest decline. Because the Switch isn't a console. It's a handheld with a fancy way to connect it to a TV just like a Vita had a PSTV.

Errrrrr

If they had put all their eggs into the WiIU it would have been even more of a disaster if they didn't have their portable line to bail them out. The portable market is shrinking but Nintendo still found more success there than with a 'home' console.

 

[Ryuuga]

$25.4B in NA overall. So Canada only makes up for $1.9B? I was momentarily shocked until I remembered how expensive games have gotten here. Stay thrifty, Canada.

 

[Caipirinha]

If they had put all their eggs into the WiIU it would have been even more of a disaster if they didn't have their portable line to bail them out. The portable market is shrinking but Nintendo still found more success there than with a 'home' console.

That's true but this trend has existed for a while and is headed in only one direction, so you have to wonder what the long term plan is for Nintendo.

 

[Movalpolos]

But in that case the Switch for them can still succeed as a console.

Some people on GAF say it's a handheld first, Nintendo says it's a console first. Who to believe?

 

[-MB-]

The console market being much bigger than the handheld market is nothing news and not even part of my point. Handheld market having worse numbers when one system is dead and the other entering its 6th year - shouldnt be a shock to anyone...regardless of the mobile or other markets.

Without new impulses for the market like VR, One S, PS4 Pro etc. those console numbers would be on decline as well compared to previous years.

Lets not forget it is also basically just Nintendo that is supporting the 3DS in the west. Western third parties have been MIA for some time now and very little to no third party high profile stuff.

 

[TheXfactor]

So what some of these people in this thread are arguing is Nintendo is screwed no matter what. Someone brings up a counterpoint but you got a loophole for why that won't work. There's being negative then there's wanting to be negative

 

[Movalpolos]

So what some of these people in this thread are arguing is Nintendo is screwed no matter what. Someone brings up a counterpoint but you got a loophole for why that won't work. There's being negative then there's wanting to be negative

Nintendo develops for mobile now so they will be fine.

 

[nkarafo]

Millions buy laptops every year to do things not associated with gaming but that doesn't stop people from gaming on them. Should we take out laptops from the overall gaming revenue too?

PC gaming is mostly associated with Desktop gaming PCs. Gaming laptops only have a tiny piece of the pie i imagine.

Thing is, there are many gamers who buy PCs for the sole reason of playing games on them. The huge gaming graphics card market prove this. Yes, people do other stuff with those too but you don't need a gaming PC to browse the internet or watch movies. Gaming is the primary reason for gaming PCs. I never met anyone in person who bought a smartphone with gaming being the primary reason.

 

[cheesekao]

PC gaming is mostly associated to Desktop gaming PCs. With gaming laptops only having a small piece of the pie i imagine.

Considering how MMO's, F2P and browser games dominated more than 70% of PC gaming, I highly doubt that (based off of 2014 data as they combined MMO's with core games in 2015) .

 

[Kouriozan]

Nintendo was right to jump into hybrid, Vita and 3DS tracking way lower than DS/PSP + the evergrowing mobile market eating parts.
Switch's release will be the end of that dying market.
4+ years ago I would have hated mobile gaming but now I'm playing a lot of good RPG on it.

Let's just say good luck to Nintendo because there is still huge obstacle to overcome now.

 

[onipex]

Some people on GAF say it's a handheld first, Nintendo says it's a console first. Who to believe?

It's a handheld console that looks like a tablet.

 

[saskuatch]

$25.4B in NA overall. So Canada only makes up for $1.9B? I was momentarily shocked until I remembered how expensive games have gotten here. Stay thrifty, Canada.

North America has a population of 580 million people, Canada makes up for about 37 million of it.....

 

[King Tubby]

Not surprising, especially considering that a lot of mobile gaming is basically tarted up gambling with all the psychological lures to keep people hooked.

 

[Malakai]

Revenue isn't everything. We have GPU that cost more than a handheld console w/ games. We have full console games micro-transactions. EA brought in over 600 million from Ultimate Team . We Sony and Microsoft rent seeking with charging for online. ETC vs handhelds.

 

[Saucycarpdog]

PC gaming is mostly associated with Desktop gaming PCs. Gaming laptops only have a tiny piece of the pie i imagine.

Thing is, there are many gamers who buy PCs for the sole reason of playing games on them. The huge gaming graphics card market prove this. Yes, people do other stuff with those too but you don't need a gaming PC to browse the internet or watch movies. Gaming is the primary reason for gaming PCs. I never met anyone in person who bought a smartphone with gaming being the primary reason.

But the fact is laptops are a piece of the pie even though most who buy them aren't looking to game on them.

In that sense mobile should absolutely be considered a gaming platform since the biggest software revenue coming from them is in fact games. It really doesn't matter what people initially bought a mobile device for, if they are gaming on it then it should be considered a gaming platform.

 

[capitalCORN]

The mobile and f2p bubble should be bursting any day now, I can feel it!

But the fact is laptops are a piece of the pie even though most who buy them aren't looking to game on them.

In that sense mobile should absolutely be considered a gaming platform since the biggest software revenue coming from them is in fact games. It really doesn't matter what people initially bought a mobile device for, if they are gaming on it then it should be considered a gaming platform.

Laptop gaming is a real thing. If my time in college was indication enough, people spring to play LoL on the go more often than not.

 

[killatopak]

Vita is dead, not niche.

ignorant.

 

[Gleethor]

What will Switch count towards though?
Handheld or Console?

🤔

Whichever one best fits the narrative being pushed at the time.

 

[Kilrogg]

I dont personally think PSP is a failure or 3DS. Think the both were reflective of the markets they were in.

What do you mean by "the markets they were in"?

Also aren't your 3DS numbers also sell in unless you have some source other than Nintendo.

To be honest I didn't check. I always thought sell-in was a typically Sony thing to do, and that Nintendo generally reported sell-through numbers. My numbers are from Nintendo, but none of the reports I found say whether the numbers are sell-in or sell-through. Do you know which number Nintendo typically reports?

 

[Lord of Ostia]

Not surprised by those numbers. I am sad about handheld gaming being over since I am a huge fan since it's advent with the Gameboy. Still rocking my 3DS and PS Vita... but really, apart from the new Pokémon game, there hasn't really been a truly huge launch on those devices for quite some while (I know stuff such as Fire Emblem Fates having some good success and making a bit of money for Nintendo - but that's mostly compared to other handheld and niche SRPG games, it's not like it's a headturner for the general public or shareholders).

NeoGAF apart and long time game fans are actually the niche which doesn't realize yet that it's the niche. Talk to some people who you don't know if they play games e.g. at work about gaming and they will all play something... on mobile and browser. Some will maybe even religiously play some strategy or puzzle or gatcha games and if that would be a "console type game" you would say they're hardcore enthusiasts but for some reason we still have that distinction in our heads.

Maybe the Switch will work as a bridge between thise different kind of gaming fans, maybe not, maybe it will be full of new and old fans or maybe it will crash and burn. Whatever it will be, I think it has potential and it will be interesting to see how it will play out next year. Looking forward to it.

Handhelds not doing well as well in the West is partially a cultural thing. 3DS performed better in Japan than many of Nintendo's handhelds, even though it's done the worst worldwide. Part of that is Vita bombing, but it's also due to lifestyle differences. Handhelds in the west have always been seen as more of a child's device...and children are just using phones, tablets, and PCs more and more now.

Switch will do well compared to WiiU, but do t expect it to do bigger numbers than 3DS. The current 3DS/WiiU audience is its audience. It may bring in some new people, but overall I expect 50-60 million sales lifetime for the console, and that's if it doesn't crash and burn. Could end up more like 25-30.

 

[viHuGi]

I always love this discussions, some people can't really accept that both pc and console gaming are healthier and better than ever haha

I just feel sad for handheld but well Mobile has took over that, Switch will be huge either way.

 

[Lord of Ostia]

PC gaming is mostly associated with Desktop gaming PCs. Gaming laptops only have a tiny piece of the pie i imagine.

Thing is, there are many gamers who buy PCs for the sole reason of playing games on them. The huge gaming graphics card market prove this. Yes, people do other stuff with those too but you don't need a gaming PC to browse the internet or watch movies. Gaming is the primary reason for gaming PCs. I never met anyone in person who bought a smartphone with gaming being the primary reason.

You are wrong about Laptops, Laptops likely make up the lion's share of the PC market, in the US at least. In Asia it might be Internet cafes. The main reason the most popular PC games have low spec requirements is because most of the market is on low-power devices (i.e. Laptops and public use desktops). Dedicated gaming rigs are a niche.

 

[nkarafo]

You are wrong about Laptops, Laptops likely make up the lion's share of the PC market, in the US at least. In Asia it might be Internet cafes. The main reason the most popular PC games have low spec requirements is because most of the market is on low-power devices (i.e. Laptops and public use desktops). Dedicated gaming rigs are a niche.

So the whole VGA market is based on a niche?

 

[Omega Kirby]

Why isn't it really gaming?

Just another close minded fool speaking.

Mobile will replace handheld, best deal with it. I'll be using both my mobile and Switch

 

[Anth0ny]

That mobile growth and handheld decline.... Christ.

 

[Ryuuga]

North America has a population of 580 million people, Canada makes up for about 37 million of it.....

I should clarify. The growth (while there is some) is much lower than what I had imagined.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

That's why Nintendo is marketing it as a home console.

Totally. Thats why in their reveal, 99% of the time, they are using it outside the house as a handheld.

Genius move on Nintendos part. The 'ol reverse psychology.

 

[Somnid]

Is this accurate? I thought 3DS has been consistently up YoY?

 

[Oregano]

Is this accurate? I thought 3DS has been consistently up YoY?

It's down in Japan, and selling for a lower price on average and there has been less big releases this year(it's pretty much just Pokémon).

A YoY decline this late in the platform's life isn't exactly a surprise, or an issue. It's the generational decline that is an issue.

On the flip side consoles being slightly up YoY isn't really notable either considering it's the XBO and PS4's third year which is usually their peak.

 

[Somnid]

It's down in Japan, and selling for a lower price on average and there has been less big releases this year(it's pretty much just Pokémon).

A YoY decline this late in the platform's life isn't exactly a surprise, or an issue. It's the generational decline that is an issue.

On the flip side consoles being slightly up YoY isn't really notable either considering it's the XBO and PS4's third year which is usually their peak.

That was my next thought, it is year 5 for the handheld gen so even if there was real decline it wouldn't be unusual.