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Let's Predict how many PSVR will be sold to customers this year (My bet: 1M)

Sendou

Member
Where are the big games? It's still very expensive piece of technology for mass market and while the novelty value is certainly there it's hard to see Sony moving too many units until you start seeing some big games on it. Also it's coming out in two weeks and I have seen zero advertising for it. Does it have smaller marketing budget than Uncharted 4?

Who is it really for? For hardcore audience that would be more willing to pay the price I don't see the software and for casual audience the price might prove to be an issue. Yet I'm glad to see Sony make a gamble like this and I hope they have plenty of unannounced software planned for it.
 
This is a pipe dream.

Are all of the VR headsets not doing well? I haven't been paying much attention but this thread feels much different then the ones earlier this year. Much less about people defending the technology and much more resignation in people's posts.

Some people thought Oculus - thanks to the support of Facebook - and Vive would have sold over a million units by now, each, and that there would be dozens of amazing AA(A) VR games out there to play.

Instead, both have been struggling to get over that 100,000 units bar and while there are gazillions of VR apps and indie games around, PC still misses a single Wii Sports-like VR killer app. And of course the price of those sets hasn't been reduced, yet. I asume quite a lot of people are especially disappointed about that.

And so they think that if the technical superior VR solutions on PC have failed (so far), VR on console is doomed to fail as well, as the laughably pessimistic numbers provided by some users suggest.
 
And by the end of the year there are 45mn+ PS4 owners around to be conquered. To sell one million PSVR units, Sony has to achieve an attach rate of less than 2,5%. That doesn't sound like an impossible task, given that the Wii Fit Balance Board with its rather high price and very limited scope had an attach rate of over 20% (LTD).
l.

PS4 is at or nearly at 45million, most even conservative estimates put it at over 50 mill by the end of the year as coming into the months with the majority of console sales. Which means a 2% attach rate for 1 million, plus there will be people buying psvr and ps4 at the sametime, probably a small % but not nothing.
 

cakefoo

Member
This is a pipe dream.

Are all of the VR headsets not doing well? I haven't been paying much attention but this thread feels much different then the ones earlier this year. Much less about people defending the technology and much more resignation in people's posts.
A lot of gamers and even analysts have ignored all the interviews from the past several years, in which VR heads said that high-end VR adoption would be slow out the gate. How slow, that's anyone's guess, but if they're disappointed, I hope that they take that as a sign they need to try harder, rather than give up.
 

kyser73

Member
Where are the big games? It's still very expensive piece of technology for mass market and while the novelty value is certainly there it's hard to see Sony moving too many units until you start seeing some big games on it. Also it's coming out in two weeks and I have seen zero advertising for it. Does it have smaller marketing budget than Uncharted 4?

Who is it really for? For hardcore audience that would be more willing to pay the price I don't see the software and for casual audience the price might prove to be an issue. Yet I'm glad to see Sony make a gamble like this and I hope they have plenty of unannounced software planned for it.

The initial run of pre-orders are sold out, there will be limited numbers on launch night/day in some retailers, and there is currently another planned pre-order delivery for 2016.

A post made by respected sales gaffer cosmic queso said this:

Last I'd heard, supply of PSVR was going to be very tight through the end of the fiscal. Perhaps that's no longer the case. I still wouldn't assume them to be freely available on shelf through January. Supply, not demand, will dictate sales of PSVR this year.

There was also an interview with Andrew House where he mentioned Sony expect the Y1 VR marketing to be ~2mn units between the three main PC/Console based HMDs, with the majority of those being PSVR.
 

Ammogeddon

Member
The initial run of pre-orders are sold out, there will be limited numbers on launch night/day in some retailers, and there is currently another planned pre-order delivery for 2016.

A post made by respected sales gaffer cosmic queso said this:



There was also an interview with Andrew House where he mentioned Sony expect the Y1 VR marketing to be ~2mn units between the three main PC/Console based HMDs, with the majority of those being PSVR.

They're not all gone, though I guess it depends on where you live. It's worth looking about because Shopto still have day one allocations available.
 
Regarding the future, no matter if you look at EyeToy / PS Cam, Wii Motion Control, Kinect, or Move, their big problem was that after an initial period with interesting games, they ran out of new content. After one or two iterations of dancing and party titles, people soon lost interest. Even more advanced versions which were supposed to revitalize sales didn't do the trick. Just look at Kinect 2.0. This was as good as motion control can get, yet devs weren't able or couldn't be bothered to make any new exciting content for it.

I learn two lessons from that.

1. Main problem of current gen VR is content, not tech. As soon as support of new, innovative VR games runs dry, this party is over. Immediatelly.

2. Better tech (2nd gen VR) will not solve this problem. If this party is over, it's over. There won't be a 2nd gen savior, at least not on consoles. Just some fancy smartphone VR stuff.

Now, the good information is, that VR isn't limited in it's scope as motion control. We are still just scratching the surface of what's possible in VR. The big question is if publishers and devs will be bothered to dig deep enough to exploit all those possibilities.
 

antibolo

Banned
Do we even know if the PSVR is doing well or not??

It seems people are having trouble finding them, but that could simply mean that Sony has not made nearly enough of them and can't be bothered to amp up production.
 
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